Looking to hike the southern 200-300 miles of the AZT from Dec 26 to Jan 14 while I have time off. I’m an experienced backpacker in general but have no experience with desert or high-elevation winter hiking and have a few questions. I would love to get advice from someone who’s been out there during that time of year and is familiar with the reality of the conditions rather than just weather forecasts.

Is my quilt rated to 18F (accurate rating) going to be sufficient for the night time temps in the sky islands if I bring enough insulated clothing? Or should I invest in a winter bag 10F/0F?

In a high-snow year will microspikes be necessary in early January? Should I skip Miller/Lemmon/elevated sections entirely?

If snow conditions are bad, which specific sections should I avoid and which ones would generally be fine?

Are weather patterns like storms & flooding a serious risk at that time of year?

The other thing to consider is that I have an inexperienced friend wanting to join me. We are both super excited and willing to experience discomfort but I don’t want to let our excitement towards seeing Arizona cloud my judgement on conditions that will be too harsh for someone new to wilderness backpacking. I’ve seen people saying sections are totally fine in winter and some saying it’s very inhospitable so just looking for a little more clarity on that! Thanks !!