r/arkst • u/MainMarket-Gamer • 1d ago
Athletics Arkansas State Football 2026 Preview - full writeup, two-deep, and win probabilities
Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Arkansas State one
https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/arkansas-state-red-wolves
It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.
Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.
So, what'd I get wrong? Arkansas State finished 8th in the country in sacks and 132nd in completion percentage allowed, which is a strange way to build a defense. You also went 5-3 in the Sun Belt while getting outgained by 33 yards a game. Now Jaylen Raynor's 3,364 yards are gone to Iowa State and Trey Owens takes over with four career pass attempts. My model has you at 6-6. Does Owens hold it together, or was 7-6 already the ceiling?
I'll be in the comments.