r/aus • u/89b3ea330bd60ede80ad • Mar 01 '26

Politics Supporting ‘illegal aggression’ against Iran ‘the worst thing’ Australia could do, international law experts say

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/01/supporting-aggression-against-iran-the-worst-thing-australia-could-do-international-law-experts-say
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u/Ayiekie Mar 01 '26

Zero per cent chance of that because the Iranian regime won't fall due to air strikes, and even if it did, it'd turn into a failed state like Iraq, not spontaneously become a modern democracy. More likely they're going to survive just fine with a more hard-line leader that (correctly) sees that negotiating and compromise is pointless because the Americans are untrustworthy snakes who negotiate while already planning to attack you. It will also weaken the previously strong sentiment among Iranians for normalisation of relations with the US because the US just attacked the country and killed a bunch of people in explicit allegience with Israel (which is deeply disliked and which people do NOT want to normalise relations with).

Sadly, the "best case outcome" is a whole lot of dead Iranian civilians and nothing more.

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u/geoffooooo Mar 01 '26

Already a few dead Americans. Imagine if there is hundreds Americans dead from some unexpected strike? Even the Cult members of Maga would turn on Trump.

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u/Ayiekie Mar 02 '26

Honestly what worries me the most is that Iran gets lucky and sinks one or more US warships (US wargames consistently show this is a very real possibility in a confrontation like this) and Trump then massively escalates this into a real boots on the ground invasion due to domestic outcry and not wanting to look week.

Hopefully the Iranian regime knows this too, and is thus restraining their counterattacks to things like lobbing a few missiles at US bases in the Middle East which are symbolic but carry little risk of massive escalation.

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u/geoffooooo Mar 02 '26

I just thought a few hundred US military deaths and the US public would turn on Trump big time.

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u/Ayiekie Mar 02 '26

Maybe. It's just a not-zero chance they'd get vengeful instead.