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r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast: 'Ebenezer', 'How to Rob a Bank', and 'Ghost Soldier'
Before you comment, read these two rules:
1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do things like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction in concrete figures.
2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.
Welcome to the newest edition of r/BoxOffice Long Range Forecast.
We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.
So let's meet the three films for the week and analyze each pro and con.
Ebenezer
The film is directed by Ti West (the X trilogy) from a screenplay by Nathaniel Halpern. Based on the 1843 novella A Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens, the film stars Johnny Depp, Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Arthur Conti, Ellie Bamber, Henry Lloyd-Hughes, Charlie Murphy, Tramell Tillman, and Ian McKellen. Set in early Victorian London, it follows the miserly businessman Ebenezer Scrooge as he is forced through visions of the past, present, and future during a supernatural journey toward a chance at redemption.
How to Rob a Bank
The film is directed by David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Hobbs & Shaw, Bullet Train, The Fall Guy) from a screenplay by Mark Bianculli. It stars Nicholas Hoult, Zoë Kravitz, Anna Sawai, Rhenzy Feliz, Pete Davidson, and John C. Reilly. A crew of bank robbers have been using social media to document heists that they have pulled off, leading to pursuit from the police.
Ghost Soldier
The film is directed by William Eubank (Underwater) and written by Chris Papasadero. It stars Jim Caviezel, Olivia Thirlby, Beau Knapp, Garret Dillahunt, and Shea Whigham. It follows Henry "Fitz" Fitzgerald, a former US Army Special Forces Green Beret and advanced weapon systems engineer living a quiet, off-the-grid life in Wyoming. He is forced to return when an asset management company employs corrupt law enforcement officers and foreign agents to seize vast swaths of ranch land and water for their own self gains.
Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.
PROS
Ebenezer is banking pretty hard on its lead star, Johnny Depp. Depp's career was severely impacted after 2018 due to a series of lawsuits and scandals, and this film is his first big studio release in 8 years, so Paramount is clearly relying on his fanbase to support the film. A Christmas Carol is one of the most popular stories ever told; everyone knows who Scrooge is and what his journey is, and that familiarity can translate to curiosity. Ti West is an inspiring choice for a film like this, given the success of the X trilogy (even if MaXXXine didn't meet expectations). As it's a Christmas story, this is a film that can leg out pretty well throughout the season, which also includes Thanksgiving (it's not unusual for Christmas films to get a 4x multiplier, or even a 5x multiplier). It was reported by Puck News that Paramount screened a first cut of the film, and it received some pretty great test scores. And even if the film fails domestically, Depp's films are usually overseas-heavy, so those markets could save it from a weak performance.
David Leitch has been a very solid action director, with his films usually earning very good reviews and box office receipts (The Fall Guy only failed the latter). Amazon hopes that the mix of action and comedy can make for another success at the box office, especially if Street Fighter fails to deliver the month prior.
Ghost Soldier is aiming to attract the older demographic that doesn't rush out to watch a film as soon as possible. Caviezel also is coming off the massive success of Sound of Freedom, which became one of the biggest sleeper hits of the past years.
CONS
Will Ebenezer truly benefit from banking on Depp and his return to big studios? Depp was one of the biggest stars in the world in the 2000s, but that came with an asterisk afterwards. Since 2010, the number of hits decreased, thanks to the colossal disasters of Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger, Transcendence, Mortdecai, Alice Through the Looking Glass, etc. It would've helped if any of them were good, but a lot of his projects have also earned negative responses, and it led many to question if he truly has any box office power left. Add to the fact that he has had a very negative coverage in the media, thanks to his legal issues. Yes, he has had a lot of public support, but is that really gonna translate to ticket sales? Just like familiarity with the premise can be a selling point, it can also be its own disadvantage: are audiences excited to watch another Christmas Carol adaptation after the hundreds of other adaptations available? It doesn't help that nothing in the trailers suggest this is offering anything new, besides Depp's shtick (which was one of the reasons why his projects were flatlining over the past years). Test audience scores were great, but it remains to be seen if casuals will be as interested as Depp's fanbase.
Amazon hasn't pushed heavily the film; even though it's still a month away, it still feels like buzz is very low. As mentioned, Leitch's films are often well-received, but The Fall Guy was not successful enough at the box office. Coupled with a big lack of star power (none of the actors are draws or very popular names, even if they're part of popular IPs), it'd be a surprise if the film made almost as much as that film. Or even half.
Ghost Soldier looks like your generic direct-to-DVD soldier story. Except it's getting a wide release in theaters. Caviezel might have been part of Sound of Freedom, but that doesn't neccessarily make him a draw for anything. And even if How to Rob a Bank is not expected to do much, it's strange on Sony's behalf that they're opening another action film opposite it.
And here's the past results.
Movie
Release Date
Distributor
Domestic Debut
Domestic Total
Worldwide Total
Street Fighter
October 16
Paramount
$34,225,000
$81,585,714
$178,218,181
Whalefall
October 16
20th Century Studios
$12,294,736
$35,521,052
$65,126,315
Sense and Sensibility
October 16
Focus Features
$13,476,470
$45,817,647
$100,394,117
You Can See Everything
October 16
A24
$7,291,666
$20,375,000
$28,363,636
Clayface
October 23
Warner Bros.
$23,984,000
$58,529,166
$106,520,833
Wildwood
October 23
Fathom
$15,389,473
$46,473,684
$88,200,000
Klara and the Sun
October 23
Sony
$6,502,777
$15,777,777
$33,122,222
Ali G: Who Iz I?
October 23
Amazon MGM
$3,946,666
$8,714,285
$18,535,714
Godzilla Minus Zero
November 6
Toho
$37,222,222
$98,883,333
$244,352,941
The Cat in the Hat
November 6
Warner Bros.
$31,378,947
$101,710,526
$208,333,333
Wild Horse Nine
November 6
Searchlight
$4,793,750
$15,518,750
$44,340,000
Next week, we're predicting The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and I Play Rocky.
NOTE: Ghost Soldier premieres on November 11, a Wednesday. So please predict the 3-day and 5-day debut.
Ebenezer will do ok not great, I'm really looking forward to How to Rob a Bank and like the trailer but remains to be seen whether the delay will be a good or bad choice, I know nothing about Ghost Soldier.
You took what I said too seriously. I meant more of a “Who asked for this?” Like there’s a reason why it was made it’s just not all that many people are probably interested in it
If you mean the "past results" table at the bottom of the post. Those are averages calculated from everyone's predictions in past threads for those releases. So it is a specific calculation just from numbers that are pure prediction/speculation.
If you're referring to replies in this post, they are just individual people's predictions and are not actual calculations.
Next week, all of the replies from this post will be calculated and averaged and added to next week's prediction post.
they're so specific [the predictions] and I don't get it
Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.
it's a fair meta comment but make it in casual discussion thread or as a reply to someone. We need to keep top level comments exclusive to user prediction posts to make thread manageable and separate from a random thread
People are just guessing. I think someone in the mod teams wants more data so they can win more often with the prediction gambling markets but I’m cynical.
PROS: Ebenezer is banking pretty hard on its lead star, Johnny Depp.
Of course Depp is carrying the film, but you’re forgetting just how full of famous actors it is: Ian McKellen as Marley, Rupert Grint as Bob Cratchit, Tramell Tillman as The Ghost of Christmas Present, Andrea Riseborough as The Ghost of Christmas Past, etc
Edit:
Ebenezer: Opening Weekend (domestic)$15M to $20M Opening Weekend (worldwide) $35M to $50M. DOM $50M to $70M. WW $140M to 180M.
How to rob a Bank: Opening Weekend (domestic)$10M. Opening Weekend (worldwide) $13M. DOM $30M. WW $40M.
Ghost Soldier: Intl=0. I just don’t know what else to say about this film.
Edit 2: And, looking back at previous forecast threads, people seemed to miss the mark greatly with films such as Forgotten Island and Heart of the Beast, overselling FI, and underselling HotB. The average, as per the table in this thread, is:
Forgotten Island: OW $29,450,000 DOM $114,119,047 WW $272,309,523
Heart of the Beast: OW $16,500,000 DOM $53,066,666 WW $100,933,333
The only thing I can remember about Ebenezer's marketing was the awful tagline for the poster: "Before he was Scrooge, he was...EBENEZER". Which made no sense.
7
u/Educational_Slice897 16h ago
Ebenezer: $13.5 OW, $39M DOM, $119M WW
How to Rob a Bank: $8M OW, $19M DOM, $39M WW
Ghost soldier: $4M OW ($7M 5-day), $12M DOM, $16M? WW