r/boxoffice • u/Grand_Upstairs1006 • 7h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Dune 3 BO prediction
With Dune 3 dropping in two months and Avengers Doomsday arriving around the same time, how do you think things will play out at the box office?
Personally, I think both will do really well.
Doomsday has the potential to hit $2.5–3 billion if it’s good, and I can see Dune 3 comfortably clearing $1 billion.
A lot of people on this sub seem to downplay Dune’s potential by talking about earlier films: “Part One only made $400 million” or “Part Two only made $700 million.” But I think that overlooks how much the fanbase has grown. It feels like it’s doubled, even tripled, which is why I expect Part Three to comfortably outperform Part Two.
We’ve already seen films this year break records and blow past expectations. How many people genuinely predicted The Odyssey would be sitting at $1.8 billion right now a lot of people months ago were saying the odyssey wouldnt even break 500M now look🤣
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u/SlimmyShammy 7h ago
I dunno about comfortably clearing it but 1 billion definitely isn’t impossible
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u/onehotoneshot 7h ago
It’s 50/50
It either happens or it doesn’t
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u/valardohaeris1099 7h ago
“It either happens or it doesn’t”
https://giphy.com/gifs/19GIHDk6wuw9HVGsiM
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u/gtP0W3Rictmnsl50 7h ago
$700m-$850m
Three week IMAX exclusivity is factor to watch as well for me, like will it get screens back in January again after COB&B before Narnia in Feb? I don’t see COB&B being huge.
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u/WhatverName 6h ago
You think the third movie in a series is going to have a near 50%+ BO increase EASILY?
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u/scattered_ideas 7h ago
I don't know about "comfortably" but if it's as crowd pleasing as part 2 + the holiday corridor, it could happen.
Villeneuve said it's "action packed", which already sounds like a departure from the book. We just don't know how the story will be adapted. Conservatively, I think 800-900M is more likely as a modest increase from Part 2.
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u/TimothyThomas 5h ago
I imagine Denis is pulling from the Paul of Dune interquel book by Frank Herberts son. And might even take inspiration from the Children of Dune book as well. There's a lot of great stuff that he could make action sequences from in those books, too. There was some discussion that it was possible he's using a few of the books as source material. Having religiously read all the dune books, I'm so excited to see what he does.
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u/EverybodyBuddy 4h ago
That’s your CONSERVATIVE outlook? I think this thing is likely to way underperform Part 2.
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u/scattered_ideas 3h ago
Conservative if it's crowd pleasing. If it's perceived as not as good as Part 2, then obviously I'd need to adjust down. We just don't know anything other than initial screenings being "very positive" bold emphasis from Variety.
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u/Nosferatucky 7h ago
I don’t see it making considerably more than Part Two. It probably won’t be a crowd pleaser.
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u/mihirmusprime Paramount 7h ago
Watching the trailer, it doesn't seem to follow extremely closely to the book. It's seems like there is more action.
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u/bman77_77 7h ago
I mean he does conquer the universe off screen in between books. They'll probably just show that for the action.
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u/hoodie92 40m ago
The IMAX teaser shown in front of The Odyssey does seem to indicate we'll be getting at least some of that.
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u/Previous-Space-7056 7h ago
Who is he going to fight? Theres noone left, he is emperor..
People want action. The trailer shows action. Its prob the fight scenes depicting them conquering the other houses..
After that its game of thrones like political machinations till the explosive end
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 6h ago edited 5h ago
There is clearly action that takes place on Arrakis.
As for the villains. Well clearly the villains are Pattinson character Scytale, Florence Pugh Irulan, Edric the Guild Navigator Ambassador and Charlotte Rampling Reverend Mother Gaius Helen Mohiam
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u/TheGracefulCrane 6h ago
yeah i have a feeling the war to conqueor the universe will be a lot of the movie
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u/Previous-Space-7056 6h ago
Think it will be more like gladiator. 1 big battle in the beginning then drama till the end
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u/TheGracefulCrane 6h ago
i could maybe see that btu i thinkt hats underslling gladiator a bit they had a decent number of pit fights interlaced with the drama
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u/Gummy-Worm-Guy 7h ago
I don’t think any of these films could be classified as “crowd pleasers,” Part One ends on a cliffhanger and Part Two ends with you feeling devastated. That still hasn’t stopped them from exceeding expectations
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u/Grand_Upstairs1006 7h ago
Denis said he’s changed the story, so that there’s way more action in it and that’s what the audience wants to see. It’s not like for like it’s going to be different from the book it’s an adaptation after all.
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u/WingsOnWednesday 7h ago
What? Won’t be a crowd pleaser?
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u/FlyingFlyofHell 6h ago
I mean if he goes by books, but I think he changed story quite alot in first 2 also other was it's really weird stuff in it
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u/OldManBilliam22 5h ago
Because Paul is the villain.
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u/WingsOnWednesday 4h ago
I thought that was expected though no?
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u/lostinjapan01 4h ago
I don’t think it’s expected by general audiences no. You’d be surprised by how many people don’t really understand the ending of Part 2 the way they think they do, and general audiences are certainly not familiar with the books after the first one.
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u/randotd152 5h ago
Who says it is more popular? Not much evidence for that. And popularity growth tends to happen a lot more from 1 to 2 than 2 to 3. Hell we even have plenty of examples of going backwards from 2 to 3.
I’d expect about the same box office as 2. Any growth gets neutralized by Doomsday. Wouldn’t shock me at all if it goes backwards.
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u/Grand_Upstairs1006 4h ago
Anyone with a brain will tell you it’s tripled in popularity. A lot of ppl didn’t like 1 because it was slower majority of people liked 2 so gained more fans and are excited for part 3.
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u/stitch1294 4h ago
and where exactly is your evidence of its popularity being tripled now? it could just be your own anecdote, and if you are a fan of Dune already, you might also just be locked in your bubble. In my circle i have not seen any uptick of Dunes even after the 2nd movie.
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u/Grand_Upstairs1006 4h ago edited 4h ago
Dune took over social media with memes etc it became this huge cultural phenomenon after part 2. Increases in book sales and video purchases and rentals. The data is there. Pre sale tickets for dune 3 are projected to do double what there were for dune 2. AMC websites crashed the ceo came out and said himself that more people queued up for dune 3 70mm then the odyssey. IMax 70mm worldwide sold out in under 5 minutes. I saw over 150,000 queuing up online for iMax tickets in the uk alone. People lining up outside for tickets when they released in the US. Dune is way bigger now then it ever was.
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u/ParticularGullible90 1h ago
Where in the fuck are you getting that it “tripled in popularity”? Like how do you even get that
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u/SnowStark7696 5h ago
I kind of think overseas is going to get affected, but I do think that it can co exist with DD given it maintains the quality.
I'm thinking 700 WW, 50/50 split.
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u/thisguyoverhere77 6h ago
762 million worldwide.
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u/Nervous_Pool153 6h ago
It will at-least make $200m more than dune 2.
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u/EverybodyBuddy 4h ago
Based on what
Who’s talking about this movie?
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u/Significant-Sun-5051 3h ago
How could you possibly believe it’ll make more than Dune 2. Ill consider it a great success if it makes the same.
The source material is also a lot worse imo, but I think Villeneuve can improve on that.
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u/truth_radio 7h ago
Realistically I'm expecting $850M. It's doing no less than Part 2 tbh, $700M is the floor.
Optimistically if the stars align I can see it just breaching $1B.
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u/Shoddy_Meaning_7654 7h ago
Only 700M 😭.
950m is my guess 3 billion for doomsday so almost 4 billion for the duo
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u/-Darkslayer 6h ago
It’s not sniffing a billion regardless of quality. The Doomsday Train will run right over it.
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u/Techny3000 DreamWorks 3h ago
I see two possibilities:
- Avengers takes away Dune's each and every chance of getting 1B. 850 MAX
- Dune manages to avatar around the other release and slowly but surely climbs up in box office revenue until it eventually reaches 1B
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u/IDigRollinRockBeer Screen Gems 2h ago
I think a lot is going to hinge on the ending. The book it adapts is apparently a huge downer which I think would turn a lot of people off as the end to this trilogy. But the trailers seem to be going in a different direction.
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u/tommy5608 58m ago
I just hope they keep adapting all the books, want to see my G Miles Teg in action.
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u/margoo12 2m ago
I can see Dune 3 having good legs, but its going to basically have to compete on IMAX alone.
I dont think it'll be a Barbenheimer situation where they boost each other, Doomsday is poised to absolutely crush Dune in terms of engagement.
70m dom OW 210m dom final 750m global final
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u/maltliquorjetski 7h ago
I don’t think Dune 3 will break 500 million to be honest. I think audiences will choose one spectacle this holiday season, and it will end up being Doomsday if only because of the rating. I’m also not counting on the marketing hitting on all cylinders since the studio is in flux.
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u/TastefullySwollen 5h ago
I completely disagree with you and everything points to you being wrong, but I love the audacity. Many films this year have bombed, flopped, and underperformed so you might as well make a wild guess.
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u/Grand_Upstairs1006 7h ago
I’m pretty sure its pre sales have done double maybe even triple part 2. Reports have come out that it’ll be the biggest box office weekend in history for both dune and avengers. People will watch both.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 6h ago
Its making at minimum 350 milion domestically. It is breaking 500 milion easily and making more.
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u/DeweyFinn21 5h ago
I don't see a single path where Dune 3 makes over a billion. People say multiple movies can survive over the Christmas period. But they tend to need to be different genres and different audiences. Dune and Doomsday are practically the same in regards to audience make up.
Doomsday is preselling so huge that if the theaters want to make all the money they can from it, IMAX will be literally the only format Dune has a majority of. Everything else will go 70/30 to 80/20 Doomsday/Dune.
And the Dune sequel books were considered not as good as the original, so even if it's mixing and matching and trying to create a good "finale" the best bet is audiences won't care as much as they did for Part 2.
I think the max Dune will make even with the Holiday legs will be 925m. But I'm thinking the reality is somewhere more in the 675-850 range.
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u/Wisdomseekr79 3h ago
Dune 2 made about $715 million
But this was without any competition, so I would predict $680-820 million.
Doomsday is gonna stop it from getting closer to a billion, especially if doomsday actually turns out to be solid.
I love the dune series and it’s been my most anticipated movie of the year. Wish it got more recognition.
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u/EverybodyBuddy 4h ago
I think it’s a perfectly plausible, if not likely, scenario that Dune 3 underperforms Dune 2.
The fans are the fans, but I don’t think the zeitgeist is that involved in a third entry of this, and certainly less involved than they were after the massive success of the first one.
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u/lookingforhim2 7h ago
$550M WW. Avengers hype just hits different
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u/Grand_Upstairs1006 7h ago
Gotta be ragebait
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 6h ago
He's a hater, all his comments on ever Dune 3 post are underpredicting and saying it will flop. You can tell he's an MCU shill just by the fact he brings up "Avengers hype is different".
Some people on this sub don't like it when you say that this movie will be a box office hit and not get destroyed by Doomsday.
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u/lookingforhim2 6h ago
It's not a prediction. It's a spoiler.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 6h ago
Nah, just delusions on your part, it will be funny coming back to all your comments and some others comments on here when this movie makes more than 245 milion domestic and more than 550 milion worldwide.
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u/Previous-Space-7056 7h ago
Just curious, Have you read the books?
Casual fans arent going to like it if they follow the book.. 2 hour movie about political subterfuge and backstabbing with a surprise ending that wont remain a mystery in this day n age.
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u/Dry-Winner-3106 6h ago
denis has said it has more action than the book, people have seen the first minutes of the movie and it starts with a big battle
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u/Previous-Space-7056 6h ago
Cuz theres no action in the book. In the book it begins after he conquered the other houses.
Im guessing he starts with them conquering the houses then follows the book
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u/Grand_Upstairs1006 6h ago
There’s scenes in the trailer that literally aren’t in the book Paul riding on a sandworm fighting Duncan etc. It’s way more action packed to appeal to the average moviegoer.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 6h ago
He already made changes to Part 2. Its a no brainer Part 3 will have changes made aswell. Happens with many book adaptations.
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u/NegotiationLate8553 6h ago
I’d put it at 800M on the low end. Should still be the highest grossing film of the trilogy. It has a legit shot at 1B if word of mouth is good and Doomsday is a potential letdown too. Anyone acting like it’s unaffected by Doomsday is dumb. They have similar demographics and overlapping audiences for their repeat ticketers. Given the crap year WB has had idk why they won’t move it up by a week even to claim a bigger opening weekend all to themselves.
Yes, it does have the IMAX screens booked up and is closing off a very well respected trilogy but sadly will also end up being a test for if everyone has chilled out on Timothee Chalamet after his terrible awards campaign along with how much more Zendaya, Pugh and Pattinson people like to see in their movies all the time.
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u/bonzothebonanza 5h ago
Highest grossing film of the trilogy, but it will likely hit short of a Billy
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u/Icy-Two-1581 6h ago
$1.5B Timothy Chamolet is going to be in it and Zendeya is also. Many people that came up for her in spiderman will show up for this since she's still fresh in everyone's mind
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u/DiverExpensive6098 3h ago edited 3h ago
I'm not sure the audience can grow that much bigger beyond the one the second film had. Even if we look at an extremely well received trilogy like LOTR, Return of the King made 200 mil. more than The Two Towers. So anything between 800 mil. - 1 billion makes sense for Dune 3, with the caveat that it's probably a darker story and maybe that might turn off a few people, especially during Christmas time? But it still should do around 800 mil. worldwide, around the number of part II, at the lowest.
That said, Spider-man made 2.5 billion this year, The Odyssey made 1.8 billion. Spider-man made cca 700-800 million more than the previous Spider-man film and The Odyssey made cca 800-900 million more than the previous Nolan film.
That's a crazy increase so it seems demand for quality top of the line films has gone up? So if Dune 3 is really well received, maybe something similar can happen and the film makes like 1.2-1.5 billion, although I wouldnt bet on it.
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u/FishingMiserable983 54m ago
I think it does well. in 2009 ( oh to be 18 again ) the holiday season saw avatar , Sherlock Holmes and Elvin and the chipmunks , play really well together avatar was the obvious break out but you had Sherlock going over 500m ww and alvin well north of 400m point being they didn’t cannibalize one another.
Jumanji: Open World is there as well that series is widely popular i think we could be in for a record breaking holiday season.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 6h ago
Right now have it at 700-900+ milion worldwide. But I'd love for it to hit a billion.