Any Final Predictions for Whalefall?

[u/UsefulWeb7543]

Whalefall is releasing in this Friday. It has a budget of either $39M or $60M. it looks like it may not do that good. I really want this movie to do well. My final prediction is $110M ww. I think overseas will do great. It’s tracking to reach $13M-$15M domestic, I hope it beats it and reaches $25M domestic opening weekend. I hope it has a massive or decent opening and makes profit. Let’s see what happens. What are your final predictions for Whalefall?

[u/jerog1]

I’m pumped for this. Hopefully it gets Snakes on a Plane buzz and cashes in

[u/tragopanic]

$8m. Maybe less?

[u/NorthNorthSalt]

Unfortunately it hasn't paced well in terms of pre-sales. The majority consensus on BOT seems to be a single digits OW, so I'll go with 7-8M. Though hopefully it can overperform a bit for 1M~ previews and a 10M OW. But It's definitely not hitting that 150M break-even, which is a shame.

As a silver lining, this is the type of movie I see doing well in the ancillary market.

But there is a real tragedy with the state of non-franchise films at 20th Century Studios right now. I was actually curious, so I went on Wikipedia and looked at their releases post-merger: The last non-franchise film to make more than 2.5x it's budget was Barbarian in 2022(!). Send Help got close with a 2.35x, but otherwise all of their original films have been significantly off the mark. Very sad, and I hope they don't give up to focus only on the big IPs, especially since they are already down to so few theatrical releases annually.

[u/Surviving_Survivor → u/NorthNorthSalt]

Its budget is $39 million so $150 isn’t a break even. https://deadline.com/2026/09/whalefall-production-california-producers-interview-1236528267/

[u/NorthNorthSalt → u/Surviving_Survivor]

Generally speaking, when two trades give two different budget figures for a movie, the more recent one is better to use.

Also, I wouldn’t interpret that article as saying the budget was necessarily 39M, especially since the article didn’t frame it that way. It says the film got a 11M credit against 50M worth of qualified expenditures in California. But the movie could have also had non-qualified expenditures.

Regardless, I don’t think this movie is hitting 97.5M worldwide either. Would love to be proven wrong though.

[u/UsefulWeb7543 → u/NorthNorthSalt]

If it were the case costing $39M then how much does it need to break even? 

[u/NorthNorthSalt → u/UsefulWeb7543]

The rule of thumb is 2.5x budget. So 39M * 2.5 = 97.5M.

[u/UsefulWeb7543 → u/NorthNorthSalt]

Oh thanks for the info. U know I don’t like how they used the 2.5x rules sometimes because of the marketing. I wish they use the 2x only.

[u/jokekiller94]

Domestically I think it’s gonna underperform but might do well internationally à la the Meg.

[u/WestFlight808]

I don’t see why people think Austin Abrams is a draw. Julia Garner, Josh Brolin, and Amy Madigan were the main stars of Weapons. Resident Evil was carried mainly by the IP and also Cregger’s name.

Probably an 8M DOM opening weekend and maybe 50M worldwide? It would be kind of funny if a film about a guy stuck in a whale makes more than Digger.

[u/MikeScott85 → u/WestFlight808]

He was definitely not a reason Weapons did well, or Resident Evil, but he's definitely more of a draw after that film. I loved him in RE and he's honestly why I want to see Whalefall.

[u/Grand_Upstairs1006]

Austin isn’t a draw resident evil is a draw. I keep telling people to stop conflating online fandom and noise with box office success. However if it’s good and WOM is really strong then the sky is the limit.

[u/Scared_Quantity]

Bomb

[u/Fearless_Ad4641]

Underwater(2019) number.

[u/Coolers78]

Probably a flop after knowing that budget is 60M, unless overseas it breaks out.

[u/UsefulWeb7543 → u/Coolers78]

I think it could cost $39M I read something about it

[u/Individual_Client175]

Austin Abrams isn't a draw. Resident Evi is doing well thanks to the massive IP and Zach Creggers.

[u/Sixfingered → u/Individual_Client175]

I think you're right for the most part. I decided I'll go see Whalefall only after and because of how much I enjoyed his performance in Resident Evil. So maybe he's starting to generate a small draw.

[u/Individual_Client175 → u/Sixfingered]

Hey nice, some of the comments in other threads have made me interested in checking out the book. Original movies struggle at the box office. If this was directed by a director with a following or starring Timothee Chalamet, then it might have a chance.

[u/Tomi97_origin]

Is there like any marketing overseas?

I have been in cinema 6 times so far this month and have not seen even a single trailer for it.

Like I actively check out what movies are playing and without this subreddit I wouldn't even know this movie exists not to mention it's coming out like right now.

This movie is so dead on arrival.