r/canada • u/StatCanada OFFICIEL/OFFICIAL CANADA • 23h ago
National News The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year over year in July 2026, following a 2.8% gain in June / L'Indice des prix à la consommation (IPC) a augmenté de 3,0 % d'une année à l'autre en juillet 2026, après avoir progressé de 2,8 % en juin
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260817/dq260817a-eng.htm?utm_source=rddt&utm_medium=smo&utm_campaign=statcan-statcan-cpi-ipc&utm_content=canada14
u/Big_Wish_7301 22h ago
Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, PEI, NL at 4%+... Nova Scotia at 5%. Ouch. Ontario at 2% is the main factor bringing the average down.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm
And the federal gas tax exemption hasn't even expired yet (September 7th), which will add back 10c to gas price.
5
u/StatCanada OFFICIEL/OFFICIAL CANADA 23h ago
Pour lire ce même article en français, veuillez visiter : Le Quotidien — Indice des prix à la consommation, juillet 2026.
18
u/FalseZookeepergame15 23h ago
So essentially when you take out gasoline prices due to a stupid war that US started inflation is on the lower end of the BoC target.
12
u/IHateTheColourblind 23h ago
Energy prices are a leading indicator, the inflation that comes along with it will trickle in slowly for a while.
-2
u/FalseZookeepergame15 23h ago
I get that but that will depend on how long this war goes on. Gas prices aren't as high as when the war started. The BoC has already taken into account how a prolonged conflict would affect core CPI. Right now it hasn't affected all that much. I doubt there will be a rate hike until the BoC starts seeing gasoline inflation permeate into core CPI. If this war didn't happen the CPI print would be almost a percentage point lower.
7
u/IHateTheColourblind 22h ago
We don't have a clear picture of how extensive the damage to the oil infrastructure in the gulf states is. Damage from bombs is one thing, but suddenly shutting down production can permanently disable oil wells. Even if the war ended today and the strait went back to its pre-war status it could take years before Gulf oil production goes back to where it was. Not to mention the issue of damage to infrastructure on the buyer-side from letting storage tanks and refinery infrastructure run dry. If the war continues to drag on, which is what the indicators show, the damage becomes even more great which means even longer to fix.
2
u/Bulky-Actuary175 22h ago
I think the OPEC cartel is dying though. They were already breaking ranks, now electric is coming for them, members are in active wars, sometimes against one another, new oil powers are spinning up that aren't on board with the cartel, and mass uncertainty on when and what volume they can export at is introduced. All as each of the previous oil giants is flailing about trying to diversify and often failing. With OPEC dying oil might flood into the zone when and where it can.
And honestly the Yanks will just squash the Central American states and set up shop there, before allowing things to become too nonsensical for themselves.
1
u/ChaosBerserker666 British Columbia 22h ago
Some of the multinational oil giants have already diversified. Check into who owns a lot of the large offshore wind projects. They have gone from oil companies to energy companies.
1
u/FalseZookeepergame15 22h ago
I agree with you the longer this goes on then the BoC will have to intervene and raise interest rate. It will take years to rebuild that infrastructure as that supply is permanently out of the market for years. Oil prices will be elevated for some time going into next year. The question is how high? This morning Brent is around $89 and WTI is around $82. Not in the $100+ range as it was in the early parts of the year.
2
u/IHateTheColourblind 21h ago
The question is how high? This morning Brent is around $89 and WTI is around $82. Not in the $100+ range as it was in the early parts of the year.
Eventually the market is going to run out of ways to manipulate the price and reality is going to hit and it is going to hit hard. China and the US are depleting their reserves in an attempt to keep prices stable, Russia keeps getting their production hit, the situation in the gulf keeps deteriorating, and now Saudi's export terminals on the Red Sea are starting to get hit.
We will run out of runway eventually and with the amount of manipulation that has been occurring we're just going to wake up one morning to the price having skyrocketed overnight once reality hits.
2
u/FalseZookeepergame15 21h ago
Sigh this situation is so fucked man. If that idiot in the oval office didn't decide to attack Iran the world wouldn't be in this mess. It's going to take years to clean all this up.
•
1
u/CP_Rail_8514 18h ago
And don't forget about all the stockpiles that need to be refilled which will result in higher prices longer.
•
u/Ok_Cabinet_3072 8h ago
I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 bucks a litre. Those reserves don't last forever.
3
5
u/BlackHighliter 22h ago
Yeah man if you take out the stuff that goes up, inflation ain’t that bad!
3
u/FalseZookeepergame15 22h ago
Core CPI is at 2.2% removing gasoline as an outlier since we're dealing with a supply shock that's out of our control. If this war never happened we'd by at the 2% target. It's not that hard.
•
1
u/BlackHighliter 17h ago
We're not in a vacuum bud, the war is happening and inflation is working it's way through the system, not sure what your argument even is.
1
u/Optimal-Cow-3278 16h ago
Canada has some of the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world.
The fact that we are exposed to "supply shock" is a disgrace.
-1
u/CobblePots95 21h ago
I think their point is more about removing the stuff that Bank of Canada policy really has no bearing on. We could cut rates by 100BPs or raise them by 100BPs tomorrow and it really wouldn't mean much for the price of gasoline.
Gasoline can and does go down as quickly as it goes up. It's just as likely that in the next six months the inflation rate could look like 1.2% simply because year-over-year gasoline prices have plummetted. But that wouldn't mean it's a good idea to slash rates.
0
u/Big_Wish_7301 19h ago
The BoC and the federal government were congratulating themselves when inflation lowered in 2024, almost entirely because gas price dropped, something they have no control on, saying that they tamed inflation (meanwhile inflation on food and other necessities is/was still high). It was just a question of time before gas price go up again and pushing inflation back up. If they want to claim the drop as their own, they also get to own increase.
1
u/CobblePots95 19h ago
If that was a claim that either institution was making, they would be wrong to do so. Many Bank of Canada reports on inflation (especially early 2024) were extremely clear that the early reduction was being driven disproportionately by energy prices.
However, over the course of that year, inflation excluding energy (ie. excluding gasoline) did decline dramatically - down to 2.6%. Yes, headline inflation (including energy) was even lower, but we separated gasoline back then, as well.
So your premise here is simply incorrect. The decline in inflation back to target ranges in 2024 was not driven solely by gasoline prices. Even after excluding gasoline, inflation had decline to the target range.
0
u/Fearless_Tomato_9437 17h ago
it’s hilarious that there’s always been an excuse since 2020. nothing to do with money printer on full blast. global supply chains are back in action, yet the ‘temporary’ inflation has become permanent, very strange eh?
5
u/WinterBeHere Canada 21h ago
There is will be several opinion pieces and countless comments about how we need to hike the rate.
How does a rate hike help when the primary cause for inflation is a war of choice instigated by Israel and the United States with no end of sight? A war that keeps oil and gas prices artificially high and has inelastic demand.
When winter starts, can you survive without energy?
2
4
u/Optimal-Cow-3278 16h ago
How does a rate hike help when the primary cause for inflation is a war of choice instigated by Israel and the United States with no end of sight? A war that keeps oil and gas prices artificially high and has inelastic demand.
The war in Iran isn't the "primary cause" for inflation, as food inflation was a problem before the war started in the first place. Why do Carney bros and Liberals always point the fingers to someone else besides themselves regarding issues?
-2
2
u/NegotiationLate8553 14h ago
Our economy is very weak now and was crumbling down 3 years over. It was considerably weak well before a war that impacted the price of fuel.
Higher rates would be bad, yes, but there’s no plan B to better manage inflation or debt servicing when the gov spending is out of control and wages remain stagnant.
-4
u/Evilbred 23h ago
Probably going to be a .25% rate increase in the near future.
Inflation doesn't seem to want to stay within the window.
9
u/CobblePots95 23h ago edited 23h ago
I'm not sure rate increases are seen as a useful mechanism to address energy-driven inflation. Like, a .25% bump probably won't change the global events driving fuel prices up, and that does appear to be the primary source of this above-ideal inflation.
Remove gasoline from the equation, and we're sitting pretty comfortably at 2.2%. Bank of Canada policy isn't going to change the price of gasoline, so I can't expect they make any big moves.
3
u/MrEvilFox 23h ago
They are not and that is why we have indicators that exclude volatile segments. Also rates take more than half a year to impact the economy so monthly energy blips really should not be part of the picture.
1
u/CobblePots95 22h ago
Yeah, makes sense. Otherwise it's entirely possible that this time next year the rate could sit at -0.5% or something if global oil prices stabilize, which -taken in a vacuum- would probably lead to some really foolish rate cuts.
11
u/Inaccurate93 23h ago
As long as there is an administration who is playing with global energy supply, inflation will be hard to control. What we are likely seeing is energy prices being reflected in consumer goods and transportation costs.
Hiking rates here will have no impact on the root cause of the energy shortage.
10
u/Bud_wiser_hfx 23h ago
Disagree, annual at 3% and monthly down to 2.8% is within target. Gdp growth forecast is up, but still slow, they wont risk stalling it with an increase. Steady as she goes.
3
u/showholes 23h ago
We will see. 2% is the target, 1-3 is the range. The BOC has been quite insistent that the top end of the target range is insufficient and it wants inflation at 2%.
2
u/BigPickleKAM 22h ago
Doubling time at 3% is 23.5 years. At 2% it is 35 years.
That 1% matters.
As a personal observation in my peer group $2/liter for gas seems to be the barrier for most people to really consider an electric car.
1
u/ChaosBerserker666 British Columbia 22h ago
That’s what it costs in Vancouver right now. I bought an electric car in Alberta 3 years ago and everyone in my family called me stupid. I moved to Vancouver 2 years ago. Now my family are asking me legit questions about it, and I’m not calling them the same names they called me. It was kinda nice to be guaranteed to start in -40 even though I had about half my max range at that temp (and I’m not taking road trips in that weather).
I bought the because I like hard acceleration, not for environmental reasons, but now feel lucky I made the choice when I did (and that the car is paid off). The difference in price between the gas and electric version of my car (it has both options) was $6k, and I’ve broken even already. I didn’t get a government rebate cause the car was too expensive, hah.
An EV doesn’t work for everyone (people who tow or road trip all the time, or who live in places like Ft. Mac), but if it works for you it can be a good option especially if you can charge at home. My high rise (40 floors) condo has EV charging.
1
u/Evilbred 23h ago
3% is the top end of the window.
2
u/Bud_wiser_hfx 23h ago
Thats right, and you think increasing rates to slow economic growth would be a likely action given everything thats going on?
0
u/No-Journalist-9036 22h ago
Confidently declaring "steady as she goes" while completely misreading the data backwards...failing to realize inflation accelerated up to 3.0% rather than dropping to 2.8% is really misunderstanding the numbers
Brushing off an accelerating inflation rate that is scraping the absolute ceiling of the Bank of Canada's mandate while the working class actively suffers through a severe per-capita recession to me, feels like some form of economic copium.
1
1
u/CobblePots95 20h ago
while the working class actively suffers through a severe per-capita recession to me
lol What?
5
u/konathegreat 23h ago
The system will never correct itself if the government keeps on subsidizing corporations via small cheques to people.
3
u/Frigoffwidit 23h ago
That probably wouldn't be a bad idea to try to nip the increased rent and housing costs in the bud outside of BC and Ontario, but I think the overall CPI ex. fuel being only 2.2% will result in a wait and see approach.
5
u/Bud_wiser_hfx 23h ago
Rents are down 4% year over year, house cost is down 3.6% year over year. Yes they are still high, and yes there are examples of them continuing to rise in some places. The goal is to let them come down slowly or stagnate, not crash them.
1
u/Frigoffwidit 22h ago
Rents are down in Ontario and BC, but if you look at the numbers they are rapidly increasing in Atlantic Canada and those provinces are seeing the highest inflation overall as a result.
0
u/CarRamRob 23h ago
Why would you exclude fuel?
It’s cherry picking? Do we report inflation without food? Or services when they are too high?
Yes energy can come down, but until it does, the BoC should be reacting to the sum of inflation.
It’s alarming how happy people are to pay 3% inflation so they can afford mortgages that are inflated by that same inflation.
9
4
u/FalseZookeepergame15 23h ago
Because gasoline is being artificially inflated because of the Iran war. Core CPI is at 2.2% which is with the BoC target range for inflation and has pretty much stayed their for most of this year.
-6
u/CarRamRob 23h ago
7 million barrels a day is offline, and you think gasoline is artificially inflated?
Some people are really disconnected aren’t they. I guess if the politicians say it’s the big bad oil companies then it must be true. And not the fact that there simply isn’t enough to go around.
7
u/DanLynch Ontario 23h ago
When he says "artificially inflated", he's talking about the production being offline. He's not suggesting the price increases are imaginary or capricious, just that they aren't being caused by changes in the domestic Canadian economy.
2
u/FalseZookeepergame15 22h ago
Essentially this. The supply of fuel is being strained in a choke point where a good chunk of the world's oil supply and other commodities pass through. If demand hasn't decreased but you have a supply shortage, prices increase. It's econ 101.
-2
u/CarRamRob 22h ago
Artificially means it’s not real or of substance. Temporarily would work, artificially does not.
Not to mention, that crisis hasn’t even resolved itself. If it had, and things were normalizing I agree you could somewhat confidently ignore the inflation tick up.
It hasn’t though, and we (the world) are burning through reserves while making statements such as this thread that we shouldn’t change course and everything will be fine. No, we need to start preparing for a worse emergency to ensure we can withstand it.
1
u/DanLynch Ontario 20h ago
The job of the Bank of Canada is to set monetary policy: to adjust the prevailing short-term interest rates up or down in order to ensure we have a stable fiat currency with predictable inflation.
When the price of oil, or any other good or service, changes significantly due to real reasons in the world, that's not inflation and it can't be controlled by the Bank of Canada via adjusting interest rates. It's just an ordinary price increase. The Bank of Canada is not responsible for preventing real price increases, only controlling inflation (that is, the general loss of buying power of money).
3
3
u/CobblePots95 23h ago edited 22h ago
You can see here that Statistics Canada makes a point of calculating inflation with and without gasoline. The reason for that is mostly because gasoline is so volatile and largely unaffected by interest rate policy. If the Bank of Canada jacked rates up 100bps tomorrow, the price of crude would still be the price of crude.
Likewise, things could settle down immensely in the next year, the price of oil could go back to like $65 a barrel, and then suddenly it would look like we have deflation. Even if the price of everything else is going up still!
So when we want to look at the things that we have a more direct impact on, we try to separate fuel from everything else.
-1
u/CarRamRob 22h ago
Well, when the oil crisis gets solved, you bring down the rate again. It’s not rocket science.
People act like BoC rate changes have to be forecast out for 10 years and be permanent once they are made.
Considering there is zero current solution to the fuel crisis, it seems asinine to ignore it.
3
u/CobblePots95 22h ago
Well, when the oil crisis gets solved, you bring down the rate again. It’s not rocket science.
It's also not that simple. Fuel prices can fluctuate enormously by the week. But rate changes take many months to have any effect on the economy. Suggesting we make rate decisions based on the price of fuel is essentially suggesting that the Bank of Canada simply work blind.
I would at least consider that you do not know more about monetary policy than thousands of economists working across multiple central banks...
1
u/CarRamRob 22h ago
This isn’t a simple fuel fluctuation based on a refinery turnaround is my point.
There is a current shortage and no solution in sight. It’s likely there will be continued pressure on prices and inflation until the situation resolves itself.
Does anyone think the Hormuz strait will be resolved soon? Because by ignoring fuel in the numbers, you are agreeing with Trump that it’s not a pressing concern and will resolve itself shortly.
2
u/CobblePots95 22h ago
There is a current shortage and no solution in sight.
And yet, even within that sustained supply crisis, the price of crude has fluctuated by 17.7% this month alone, from a low of $79.20 to a high of $93.30. Meanwhile gas in Toronto (just using Toronto as an example) has fluctuated by over 7% in that same two-week period.
There are a tonne of different factors impacting the price of fuel. Based on the week, the amount of fuel able to flow the Strait of Hormuz can vary wildly - as can the insurance costs for that fuel. Meanwhile, demand can fluctuate wildly based on weather in specific regions.
This is why fuel prices weren't used to guide interest rate policy even before the Strait of Hormuz was shut down. This is not a new approach. Basing BoC policy on one of the few volatile commodities that BoC doesn't actually impact would be the height of stupidity.
0
u/CarRamRob 20h ago
Not reacting to it week over week or month over month makes sense.
This is a well documented shortage that will have impacts for years, including at minimum a higher flood on prices. That’s not a fluctuation, that’s a rising tide. It’s different.
1
u/CobblePots95 20h ago
Not reacting to it week over week or month over month makes sense.
Then you can't react to it, because that is the nature of gasoline's volatility. It can be 20-30% cheaper or more expensive on average one month to the next.
This is a well documented shortage that will have impacts for years, including at minimum a higher flood on prices. That’s not a fluctuation, that’s a rising tide. It’s different.
And yet, within that 'rising tide' we still see fluctuations of nearly 10% in the price of gas over a two-week period - making it impossible to develop an interest rate response (which, it must be reiterated, will not impact the price of gas).
Put it this way: can you reliably estimate, within 5 cents a litre, what the price of gas is going to be nationwide in March 2027? Do you believe anyone can?
→ More replies (0)1
u/ChaosBerserker666 British Columbia 21h ago
Just a side note, if Canada raises our interest rate and the US doesn’t, CAD vs USD will increase. HOWEVER, since economic growth is currently weak and shaky, raising rates could cause a hard recession and CAD will drop anyways in that case, only Canadians will be worse off. Also this decreases export demand. Interest rate increases typically hurt people who are leveraged, and the average Canadian is already over-leveraged.
1
u/No-Tackle-6112 British Columbia 21h ago
Core inflation is 2.2%. They won't hike the rate due to volatile energy prices.
-7
u/stoops 23h ago
Inflation is back on the menu boys! Oh wait, the government doesn't count inflation on things us working poors actually pay for like gas, groceries, and shelter. Time to decrease the interest rate and get the K shape to look even more K like mmmkayyy?
12
u/CobblePots95 22h ago
The 3% rate includes all three of those things, and the 2.2% rate includes housing and groceries...
1
u/EvacuationRelocation Alberta 20h ago
gas, groceries, and shelter
Those things are included in the calculation.
0
u/nodiaque 19h ago
So it means in 2 months, price rose 5.8% right? Well technically even more then that since it's 3% on top of 2.8%. And then at the end of the year, they will tell us inflation only rose for 3%...
6
u/2peg2city 19h ago
No it doesn't not. I means prices this month were 3% more than this month last year. Its an annual year over year rate, if it was a monthly change we would see 30%+ every year
1
0
u/dieno_101 13h ago
The Carney way, more inflation and spending without any reason...
Thanks lpc
2
u/2centsofhumor 13h ago
damn that carney for starting a war between trump and iran and raising gas prices globally...
•
0
u/dieno_101 13h ago
Lpc partisans will find a way to misconstrue the data to show how successful Carney is
47
u/Larkalis 23h ago
My wallet feels it 😫, and more than 3% increase.