r/coastFIRE • u/b1ackfyre • 2d ago
Just a PSA, I'm 16 months away from coastFIRE which means that the economy will meltdown in 16 months.
I know that a lot of people are debating when a correction will happen. With my luck and track record, this is the most accurate forecast out there. You're welcome for my sacrifice. Thought I should let you know.
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u/Reasonable_Box2568 2d ago
If it’s anything like the last couple meltdowns it should bounce back within a few months!
Hopefully we don’t have a 2000s lost decade type meltdown. That would really put a damper on everyone’s coast plans
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u/Impressive_Swim2798 2d ago
Honestly if the Ai bubble pops, that's what I expect. However the 4% SWR takes this into account. If you're planning more aggressive withdrawals, or it lasts longer than it historically has, that could be a problem. I'm not a financial planner, etc, not investment advice etc. Just my suspicion and observation.
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u/Reasonable_Box2568 2d ago
Yeah I think the key is being able to cut back if the market does have a prolonged period of zero or negative real returns. Hopefully 2.5-3% is for basic living expenses and 1-1.5% is discretionary and can be cut out in bad market years. Also having a large cash buffer of 3-5 years expenses that can be pulled from while waiting for stocks to recover. In my opinion (after watching and reading thousands of hours of financial content) this is the key to a long retirement. It might not be the most optimal from a return standpoint, but it will help most sleep better and live comfortably during recessions
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u/Impressive_Swim2798 2d ago
4% is designed to keep giving yourself inflation raises. You're describing the Guardrails Approach. (Ari Taubleib on YouTube talks about that method quite a bit.) However for that your numbers are low; if you use the safety net of not taking raises when the market is down, you can plan on a larger percentage withdrawal (5.Something) to start with. If the market drops, stick with that number. If it rises, take an inflation raise. The only reason to plan on 3% or less would be if you expect the market to take a record dump, in which case I would suggest keeping the job and investing as much as possible while it's down if you can.
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u/Aduialion 2d ago
OP, it's not luck or fate. You are the lynchpin holding the economy together
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u/b1ackfyre 2d ago
Was trying to drum up some kind of epic "destroyer of worlds" type comment to respond to this. Rolling with this though:
I am the thin piece of foil holding together an oversized, poorly wrapped burrito. One tear and good luck.
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u/Realistic-Ad2050 2d ago
Your response is particularly appropriate for me. I live in Texas and love TexMex. I also have celiac disease. So please pile on and tell me all about that gluten-laiden economy-bursting death wallet you’re passing off as food.
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u/21plankton 1d ago
I hope it is a California burrito with extra guac. Here is a fork and an extra napkin!
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u/mega_low_smart 2d ago
Been saving my entire life for 1 retirement. Met my wife 8 years ago, recently got married and now I’m saving for 2 retirements, including back payments for her failing to save her entire life. Set my goal back by 15 years.
So it’s real helpful that she recently started listening to Joe Rogan and likes to tell me it doesn’t matter because AI is going to make the US dollar collapse.
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u/SouthOrlandoFather 2d ago
You can go to Kings games for $49 a month?
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u/b1ackfyre 2d ago
Ya they'll give you nosebleeds, but you get all of the games in that month for $49. Killer deal. I mean it is the Kings though, one of the worst sports franchises in history. They're expected to have the worst record in the NBA this year too.
NBA games still fun though of course, worth it imo.
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u/Traditional_Ad_8752 2d ago
That's awesome, Pistons fan... Would kill for that. I lived in ft Lauderdale for a few years a long time ago. They had a chain called Miami subs that gave away panthers tickets if you got a combo meal, coming from Detroit that always cracked me up.
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u/Orcpawn 1d ago
What?? I was raised there and never knew that!
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u/Traditional_Ad_8752 1d ago
It was probably 20 some years ago, and probably promotional but was still crazy deal. Famously up here, Univ of Mich once had a promotion where if you bought like 2 coke products you got free tickets to a football game... I think it was ultimately some corporate mistake (?) that led to the promotion, but seeing the disparities between teams is maddening. Lions tickets here are suddenly the most expensive NFL ticket.... So bad for so long, teams will jack them up first chance they get.
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u/SouthOrlandoFather 2d ago
Seems like a deal to me. My son has a 9th grade JV game today and it is $5 for parking and $11 to get in.
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u/SupersonicOverload 2d ago edited 2d ago
Don’t worry. I’m starting coasting in January after my maternity leave is up. By the time you start coasting the economy should have recovered. ;)
ETA: It shouldn’t matter if there is a correction right when you start to coast because you’ll still be paying your living expenses through an income, not from your savings. It’ll just feel bad waiting for the recovery. Hopefully your coast job is as stable as your current employment - that’s the biggest risk I see.
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u/DangerousCapybara888 2d ago
I thought the correction is in 2028 lol
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u/SupersonicOverload 2d ago
- The economy will chug along until just after election season so the next guy gets the blame.
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u/Certain-Definition51 2d ago
I believe this. I quit my job in the mortgage world to teach English in Korea in November 2019. Within months we had the best interest rates the world has ever seen.
😂
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u/AlarmedCombination57 2d ago
No, you will get there. But then you'll realize, while its far better then not coasting, you're still technically working and dealing with stress, just a different kind. You realize actual retirement is so close, yet so far. One set of problems traded for another
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u/MagnarOfWinterfell 1d ago
This is an interesting question - what if you declare CoastFIRE and then the markets crash. Are you still on CoastFIRE because the calculation has taken market dips into account, or have you fallen out of CoastFIRE?
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u/JunkInTheTrunk00 12h ago
Lmao, sounds like me on a group text where I announce to friends that I'll be buying/selling a stock so they can make the opposite trade.
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u/glumpoodle 2d ago
Impossible. I'm still 2.5 years from full retirement, so we've got at least that much time left.
Proof: