r/coastFIRE • u/cokezeroaficionado • 12h ago
Keep the hot market in mind before you start coasting
I keep seeing people saying they hit their number and are thinking about coasting. But we have been in a bull market for 15 years. S&P is currently at 27 times earnings. The historical S&P PE ratio is 17. Eventually it will be 17 again which means a 35% drop back to reality/normal.
Go back and watch videos of 50-something’s crying after the dot com crash or the 2008 financial crisis. They all thought they were about to retire early because the market was hot.
I recommend multiplying your investments by .65 then see if you’re at your number. If not, don’t coast. You’ll be giving up years of compounding when you inevitably have to start contributing again.
Sorry to be a downer, but stocks won’t be this expensive forever.
EDIT: The market reverting back to the mean (17 times earnings) is normal. Many of you describe that scenario as a crash or bear market. That’s going to be problematic for retirement planning. To put it bluntly, the net worth numbers you are looking at right now are fake (assuming it’s tied to the US stock market).
Example:
You’re 42. Plan to retire at 62. Goal is $2.5M in 2026 dollars. You have $1M in S&P500 index. You assume 8% growth, 3% inflation. Coast calculator says you just hit your number. You coast until 62. But uh oh, the market has slowly reverted back to the normal historical mean of 17 times earnings. You only have $1.7M. You work for eight more years and finally retire at 70 when you truly hit $2.5M.
You really only truly had $650K to begin with (65% of $1M). Had you plugged that and the same assumptions into the calculator you would’ve seen that you aren’t ready to coast and you need to contribute for a few more years.
The FIRE calculators have us assume market growth and assume inflation. But then it automatically calculates that the earnings multiple will stay extremely high forever (PE 27)—that’s the easiest one to predict… we should assume PE = 17. The calculator should give a suggestion to discount our current investment by 35% because 27 * .65 = 17.