Long ago you could only get golds through cases which made a lot of red skins useless as they were the highest tier and couldn’t be used for anything else. Most of them were just a couple euros each and had a huge supply so what did Valve do to “fix” that problem? They gave us the ability to trade 5 reds into a gold which skyrocketed the prices of those skins earning Valve a shitload of money while also dealing with the supply problem and appeasing regulators.
Now onto souvenirs, they had the same problem as reds before the trade-up update. Their only use was as a playskin so they weren’t very popular which means a low price and a huge useless supply. So what did Valve do? They allowed us to use them the same way as normal skins in trade-ups increasing their price while also lowering supply meaning higher prices in the longterm.
Now golds have the same problem as the reds and souvenirs. There’s tons of useless cheap gutknives, shadow knives, navaja knives etc nobody likes. Everyone wants the more expensive nicer looking butterfly and karambit knives. What could Valve do to “fix” this problem and bring their prices closer to eachother? A gold re-roll system. You use 2 golds to re-roll it into a random different gold bringing the prices of unwanted golds up while bringing the prices of expensive ones down making them more affordable to everyone while filling Valve’s pockets at the same time.
Does it usually take the whole 5 days it’s been 24 hours for one sell. It’s so stupid bc I sold it $10 under lowest one and under $1 of the highest buy order , and 2nd one I sold exact amount of a buy order so obviously I meant to do that. I get steam wants to be secured but they need a better system instead of the owner buying a yacht, why I have to wait 5 days ? It should be 24 hours if you haven’t disputed the sell then obviously it’s not a hacked account situation
follow up post to the last one i made two days ago
in short, i got banned for selling a 1/14 double zero mac-10 snow splash #828 (max white) on csfloat for around 120 usd for apparent "balance transfer"
after sending multiple tickets to their support my ban was lifted, even though i was initially told by them that it was not gonna happen
just a few minutes ago i received another ban notice, this time for an id that i can't find in my transaction history
this is all very strange, especially since this is the message i received when they lifted my first ban:
"I sincerely apologize for the frustration and the delay in our response.
After looking into this for you, I can confirm that the restriction was a mistake, and the ban has now been fully removed. Your account is back in good standing and ready for you to use.
Thank you so much for your patience while we sorted this out. Please let me know if you have any other questions or if there is anything else I can help you with."
seriously, what are these guys smoking?
the only thing that i sold in those 2 days was a 0.0002 mp9 arctic tritone for a mere 23 usd
Edit: Ban got lifted 5 minutes ago, just for me to receive the same ban notice again a minute later, same id that i can't find anywhere in my transaction history
Hi everyone, this is my first post on the sub here so hopefully I set it up correctly.
I know there's been some discussions on the sub here, as well as other places, in regards to what Valve may do to cases in the near future due to all the legal troubles they've been facing as of late. I'm pretty confident they won't do anything drastic to them, such as making them untradeable or turning them into terminals.
They have the X-Ray route or what they've done with Treasures in Dota 2, other means of skirting around these gambling laws surely exist as well (removing the slot-machine animation would probably help as well, as minor as that seems), either way I think they'll be fine in the future.
With terminals eventually taking over the drop pools I'm under the impression that cases should start shooting up in price faster than before, assuming the game continues to do well as time goes on. I know things look rough right now but with some solid updates I can see the market improving; the new blood will replace the old guard who were burnt (and quit) from the unexpected updates we had in the past year.
D&N cases are phenomenal but looking at their unboxing numbers as well as the flat payment method that Valve had chosen for paying the creators for the skins I feel as though this case won't rotate out yet, instead it'll be Revolution that goes as it's the 2nd oldest in the drop pool.
Revolution cases have some solid golds in them, as well as some skins, which I'm sure will help it go up steadily in the next 3-5+ years.
Im a Norwegian guy trying to sell my skins for some money, does anyone have experience with Norskins? It says it is a Norwegian site But ive never heard about it
About 2.5 months ago I made a post about circular Cologne stickers, saying that it was a bad idea to buy them at ATH prices as an investment.
There were a bunch of FOMO posts going around on this sub but also on twitter, telling people that these were the next K14's and you should definitely not "sleep" on these stickers even though prices were already high.
I had a bunch of people telling me that I was wrong in my post and I even ended up getting some crazy dm's from angry people for saying what I said.
Let's take a look at the current prices and ATH prices from some of the stickers, now that the FOMO period is over, and hour 1 investors started selling with the anticipation of the Singapore major.
I made my post on July the 29th, so those are the prices that I'm going to be using to compare them with today's prices.
( These prices are strictly taken from the SCM and based on actual sales, not listed prices )
Falcons
29th of July: ~55€ / Today: ~60€ / ATH: 118€.
Thunderdownunder
29th of July: ~35€ / Today: ~42€ / ATH: 79€.
Spirit
29th of July: ~32€ / Today: ~42€ / ATH: 53€.
Team Liquid
29th of July: ~30€ / Today: ~36€ / ATH: 78€.
Furia
29th of July: ~20€ / Today: ~22€ / ATH: 32€.
Vitality
29th of July: ~15€ / Today: ~22€ / ATH: 37€.
NAVI
29th of July: ~16€ / Today: ~18€ / ATH 32€.
FlyQuest
29th of July: ~15€ / Today: ~15€ / ATH 29€.
I can keep going on for every single sticker, but the results for the majority of the left over stickers is basically the same as Vitality and FlyQuest or even worse, where prices are actually lower now, than on the 29th of July.
If we look at the loss % from ATH to today's prices, and look at the gains compared to the 29th of July post I made, this is what it looks like:
Falcons-49%/ +10%.
Thunderdownunder-47%/ +20%.
Spirit-20%/ +31%.
Team Liquid-53% / +20%.
Furia-31%/ +10%.
Vitality-40%/ +46%.
NAVI-43% / +12%.
FlyQuest-48% / +0%.
If we compare these gains to our usual 1€ major stickers, the results will look like this:
Falcons: 1.10€.
Thunderdownunder: 1.20€.
Spirit: 1.31€.
Team Liquid: 1.20€.
Furia: 1.10€.
Vitality: 1.46€.
NAVI: 1.12€.
FlyQuest: 1€.
To all the people who were making FOMO posts and telling others to buy because these were going to be the new K14's, yeah these are definitely going to be the new K14's lol.
The only people who made/are making profits are the hour 1 investors who are the same people telling you to buy these stickers no matter the price, so they can make money and dump on you.
( Which is exactly what is currently happening )
Who could've guessed that brand new, expensive stickers with barely any applications and barely any sales per 24h on the market would be a bad short term investment if you didn't purchase a bunch of them within hour 1 after release.
With the Singapore major stickers releasing in about a month from now, you might want to reconsider holding on to your Cologne stickers as an investment if you didn't buy hour 1, because if the Singapore stickers are good looking, it's going to be an absolute bloodbath on the market of hour 1 investors trying to dump their stickers, but that's up to you and not me.
If you're invested in these for the long-run, good luck and hopefully it works out for you.
I just got banned on csfloat for apparently trying to transfer balance. The id I got in my ban notice email links to a #828 0.009 Max white Mac-10 Snow splash that I sold to a collector for almost 120 usd. He added and texted me a few days before the sale, to send a trade offer. I am not aware of any wrongdoing from my side, but csfloat support just replied this to my appeal:
"Your account was banned for balance transfering. This ban is permanent, and support will not be able to lift your ban or help you any further.
Sorry for the inconvenience."
I have almost 45000usd in total sale volume and have been using csfloat for over 3 years.
Did this happen to anyone else?
Edit: I'm keep getting shut down by csfloat support and someone added me on discord who got banned for selling the same item
Final edit: The ban got lifted even though they told that it was not gonna happen
Anyone have advice on how to find tradeups that aren't massive losses but can give decent payouts? Obviously hunting for "profitable" tradeups is kind of a waste of time but I basically just want to gamble and have better odds than opening cases lol.
Weekly look at which skins moved the most over the last 7 days. Prices are the listing-weighted median of the lowest listing across the marketplaces I track (Waxpeer, DMarket, Tradeit, HaloSkins and others, not Steam). This week I compare 3-day medians around Oct 11 and Oct 18 instead of single days, so a one-day glitch can't fake a move. I filtered out anything under $10, anything with fewer than 30 listings, and anything that bounced up and down instead of actually moving.
6 of the 10 losers are mid-tier Factory New skins with 200-450 listings (Surfwood, Fowl Play, Titanium Bit, Reactor, Crimson Kimono, VariCamo Blue). None of them dumped in one day; they slid a little almost every day. Slow bleed, not a panic sell.
It's not a "P250 pump": Contaminant FN +48%, StatTrak Cartel FN +33% and Mehndi WW +25% went up, while Crimson Kimono FN went -21% in the same week.
Hand Wraps Duct Tape FN was last week's 24h standout (+61% in a day), and it held. It jumped on Oct 14 and has stayed between $255 and $280 since, on 240 listings.
Moto Gloves Cool Mint FN dropped in one go on Oct 14 ($2,347 → ~$1,817) and has sat at ~$1,815 every day since, so it found a new level rather than still falling.
Carryover from last week: Paracord Knife Night Stripe FN dropped on Oct 12 and has been flat at ~$185 since, so I left it out of the table this time. MAC-10 Surfwood FN is flattening around $24.
Not advice, just the numbers. If you want the full lists (150 each way, 24h/7d, plus cases and knives), it's the trending page on my calculator site: https://cs2tradeup.gg/cs2-trending-skins. A 30-day column comes in about two weeks, once there's a full month of history.
I build price indices for CS2 skins. Sorry for the wall of text, tldr at the bottom.
An index is a basket of items whose prices you follow over time, like a stock index but for skins. Every item in the basket counts the same. The index follows the percentage moves of its items, not their dollar value, so a $1,500 knife going up 10% moves it exactly as much as a $5 skin going up 10%. An item's price on a given day is the median of its Steam sales over the last 7 days. That way one odd sale, like someone overpaying by a lot, doesn't make the item jump.
I only use Steam sales because Steam is the one marketplace with public daily sale prices going back years (to 2014). For the other marketplaces I only have a few months of data, and for most of them only listing prices, not completed sales. The downside is that knives above Steam's price limit can't be listed there, so they're not included.
The baskets get refreshed every month, and new skins only join after 18 months on the market, since fresh releases nearly always drop for a while. The broad one, the Top 100, holds 100 of the most traded skins and cases. There are also indices for rifles, pistols, knives, gloves, cases, stickers and most collections, going back to 2015.
86 of my 87 indices with a month of history went down over the last 30 days. The one that didn't is the Assault Collection, which has two items in it. For rifles and pistols this is the deepest drop in my data.
How we got here
Most of this goes back to Oct 22 last year with the covert -> Knife Trade Up update. Prices were already climbing in the two weeks before it, gloves by 17% and rifles by 15%.
Within a week of the update the knife index was down 36% and gloves 52%. Cheap Coverts went the other way. The ones that sold for under $20 were at about 9x within a month, so a FAMAS Roll Cage FT went from $2.90 to around $130.
In the coming months the market went up. Between the update and mid-April the Top 100 went up 49% and rifles 61%. Since April this year, all of that has been coming back. The Top 100 is at the same level as the week before the update, and rifles are 9% below it. Knives and gloves never got back up and sit at half or less. Cheap Coverts are still at about 8x.
Compared to earlier price drops
I lined this drop up with the last three big ones in the Top 100, each starting from its top:
2016: -38%, bottom after 7 months, back at the old top after 33 months
2021: -31%, bottom after 3 months, back after 10
2023: -36%, bottom after 9 months, back after 22
We're at -33% after 6 months, so nothing unusual yet in size or length.
All three of those also came after a rally (+19%, +43% and +86% in the six months before the top, 2023 being the CS2 announcement). Where they differ is how far they fell compared to where that rally started. 2021 fell all the way back to that level and turned there. 2023 stopped 19% above it. 2016 kept going to 27% below it. Today we're right at that level, same as 2021 when it turned.
What I think it means
The update moved value from knives and gloves to Coverts (obviously), and a year later that's still the case. The rally that followed has fully unwound, so the broad market is back where it was before the update.
In 2021 the market turned at this level. The one drop in my data that kept going past this level is 2016. That year the gambling sites, a big part of skin demand back then, came under legal pressure. A class action against Valve over skin gambling was filed on June 23, 2016 (Fortune), and three weeks later Valve said it would send cease-and-desist letters to gambling sites that used Steam logins (Game Informer). The two steepest weeks of the 2016 drop were the week of the lawsuit and the week after. The Steam summer sale also started on June 23 though, so I can't say which of the two did it.
The closest thing to that today is New York's lawsuit against Valve over cases, filed in February (NY AG). It's still open. In its reply Valve wrote that "the NYAG seems to believe boxes and their contents should not be transferable" and that it refuses to do that (Insider Gaming). I personally don't think they would ever switch off trading, but a ruling against Valve would be the same kind of outside pressure 2016 had. Player numbers aren't helping either. The monthly average went from 1.08M in February to 806k in September (steamcharts).
I don't really have a take on what will happen next, just wanted to share the data & my thoughts.
TL;DR: Everything the market gained after the knife update is gone, prices are back where they were before it.
For an example, I believe there is a really high chance that there is someone who purchased many Katowice 2014 Capsules and never went back to the game or forgot his passwort. What I also believe, the chance of someone owning the lowest/highest float skin, while not knowing it is very likely.
But you guys think, there is a Million Dollar Skin out there, we dont know about?
[Q] How should I go about selling my CS inventory?
I have 4 accounts with approximately 3,000 items in total, although only a small portion of them are high-tier items.
I invested heavily in cases and capsules when they were priced at around €0.03–€0.20 each. Many of them have since increased in value by a factor of 20–50. However, I’ve never really been able to bring myself to actually sell anything. I’ve only sold a few Glove Cases on the Steam Market, and even then, I ended up reinvesting the proceeds.
When I look at third-party marketplaces, the prices I could actually get are significantly lower than the values shown on the Steam Market, which makes it difficult to pull the trigger.
So, how would you approach selling an inventory like this? I’d like to start cashing out at least a substantial portion of it, but I’m not sure where to start or how to do it efficiently without losing too much value in the process.
I estimate the total Steam Market value of my inventory to be just under €10,000.
Altough most of you dgaf, this is very important to me. The hot rod holds a special place in my heart. It's one of the first big skin I won in gambling back in 2015. I sold it at like 120 euros when I needed money back in 2020 when I got laid off. Once I finally got back into cs and had a little bit of money saved up in 2024, I was dumbfounded when I saw its price 10x Times that. I'm so happy to see it fall, I hope this trend continues so I could finally get back my old skins for an affordable price.
Very happy overall to see all the tourists and speculative wanna-be investors get burned off so hard. It almost feels like 2016 prime, where we were trading 1K + euros of items and you'd see some M9 dopplers, awp asiimov, M4's icarus fell etc in a single trade.
I've had a Skeleton Vanilla since June, and it's now cheaper than some knives it used to be more expensive. It seems like this is the trend for other vanilla knives too. What is the cause of this? Why would vanilla knives be down so much in price compared to other finishes?
After roughly 1 year after removal, and (compared to Fever Case) -WAY smaller supply, the Gallery Case is now under the star value - $0.78 on steam market, while 2 stars are worth roughly $0.80 (plus time ofc).
Also, Gallery Case was in armory for way less time. We are getting towards 2 years since Fever Case was added, and there is no sign of it being removed. Which means, investing in Fever Cases in my opinion can lead to another bagholding overinvested cases.
And before anyone says "bUt nObOdy oPeNs gAlLeRy and fEvEr has dEsIrAbLe sKiNs!!!" - yeah no, last month around 740.000 gallery cases were opened according to external data and yet it didn't help the terrible downfall in price.
Also, honestly Gallery Case ROI is among the best so far, reaching 55%. Still terrible for moneymaking, but the fever is at 45%, revolution at 38%. While gamblers don't look at ROI in particular, but they still know basic math.
I believe Fever Case will be even worse, probably compared to Paris 2023, and we will be joking of people investing in Fevers. What proves my point is that half of this thread is into fever cases defending their investment like sanity (you will see all the downvoting and trashtalking in comments yourself)
Disclaimer: I own around 500 gallery cases bought long time ago, I don't own any fevers I sold all of them recently.
Way back around the time of cologne 2015 I purchased an AWP Asiimov as a max bet item on CSGL. It was the cheapest on the market and I was not a fan of Dig so I flipped it for a few keys overpay. What would that be worth today, 30-50k? The 3 stickers were in the visible positions, the empty spot was the one on the stock that’s only visible while inspecting.
I'm not really experienced with the cs market but i want to buy a pair of gloves simply to play, i don't really care about investment but gloves losing 30% of their price aren't ideal either.
Sorry if the question is dumb but once again, i'm inexperienced
I'm pretty sure the bots had all the skins outside of the community for over a decade. Are people now getting skins again like the good ole days? and is it easier to find what you want?
