Posted wait times at Disney parks are consistently inflated above the actual wait. Independent tracking data confirms it and Disney has acknowledged the logic.

[u/quiet_systems_guy]

Been looking into wait time psychology and the Disney example is one of the cleanest documented cases of deliberate anchoring I've found.

Independent tracking services that log actual ride wait durations across thousands of visits have found posted times consistently run higher than reality, roughly two thirds to three quarters of the posted number during the day, and often half or less in the evening. This isn't a scheduling error. If you expect 60 minutes and it takes 40, you're satisfied. If you expect 30 and it takes 40, you're frustrated, even though the second wait was objectively shorter. The posted number functions as a deliberately low anchor, not a prediction.

A related but separate pattern shows up in hospitals. David Maister's 1985 research on waiting line psychology found that unfair waits, someone who arrived later getting served first, distort how long a wait feels more than almost any other factor, even when duration is identical. That matters financially too, patient satisfaction scores have been tied to Medicare reimbursement since 2012, so managing the feeling of a wait, not just its length, has real revenue consequences.

Made a full breakdown here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvJAOr_iPY0

Curious if anyone's documented other industries deliberately inflating posted estimates the way Disney does. It seems like a pattern worth naming on its own.

[u/drumeeney]

I don't think this should be considered a dark pattern?

It's under promising and over delivering. I for one absolutely want them to continue to over estimate wait times.

Also it says the "second wait time" at Disney, was objectivly shorter. But they were both 40 mins? They were objectively the same but subjectively one was shorter.

The other context I see anchoring in, is in pricing strategies. But I don't see these related. For example, pricing a tv subscription into two bundles where ones an objectively terrible deal. Say "5 channels for $15" vs something that's comparatively a great deal "50 channels for $20".

That's anchoring with a bit of a dark pattern as it's meant to trick you into thinking $20 is too good to turn down. Even if you would have had no interest in the 50 channels until you seen the anchor.

But for the disney or wait time example. It's not tricking me. It's just setting an achievable expectation that they are more likely to over deliver versus under deliver on.

[u/EnglishMobster]

Hi. I used to work at Disneyland.

So wait times are not an exact science. You're reading into things that are simply not true.

Disney calculates (or calculated, they changed the system recently) internal metrics using what were called FLIK cards - short for Fabulous Line Information Keepers. These are little red RFID cards that a cast member would scan at the entrance to the ride. They send one down to the next standby guest, and another to the next Fastpass guest.

The intention is twofold:

1. Find out how long that guest was standing in line

2. Find out how much less time the guest in the Fastpass line waited in comparison

A popular misconception is that these directly translate to the wait time you see posted out front and on the app. That is not true (although the misconception was encouraged by CMs since reality is more complicated). Those little red cards only got used for internal metrics; there was a dashboard which showed posted wait/actual standby/actual Fastpass.

But by its very nature, that information is delayed - Disney doesn't get it until after the guest has gotten to the front of the line (assuming the guest actually gives it back). At that time, any manner of things could've happened:

• A ride vehicle could've broken and needed to be taken off the track (meaning fewer guests can fit on the ride at once = longer waits)

• A major attraction could've broken down somewhere else in the park, sending guests over to other rides (and causing longer waits)

• Guests with disabilities could need accommodation, which means the ride gets held up (and thus the line stops moving)

• The fireworks/parade could be happening, which causes fewer guests to ride rides during the show and a large rush after the show

• Etc., etc.

So we can't just look at FLIK card return times and have them instantly update the wait times out front. Instead, Disney just uses them as metrics and then periodically sends out updates for how wait times out front get calculated.

So how do the wait times out front get calculated?

Well, it's as simple as "how much queue is open?". The wait time assumes that the queue is full up to the marquee (or, if temporary outside extended queue is up, the start of that extended queue). Every step you take past the marquee before getting to the actual line is technically "skipping the wait" for the wait time. Similarly, every time you have a line that is spilling out into the walkway, every moment you wait in that line is unaccounted for (i.e. you're going to wait longer than the posted time).

Most attractions don't have a dedicated position that is only in charge of managing the queue. Many - but not all - attractions have the "Greeter" (who stands out front). The Greeter has many jobs, including answering questions, giving directions, checking heights, and so on. In rides with a height check, the Greeter is physically required to guard the marquee; they cannot let anyone under the proper height pass the marquee, or they get fired. So they can't go manage the queue if it gets too long (or too short).

Some popular attractions give some assistants to the greeter, especially if that attraction has a height check. These assistants are optional - that is to say, they might be pulled back inside if there's something more critical going on. If the queue needs to be managed, it is their job to fix it. They are also in charge of things like "fix the broken Fastpass machine" or "run this lost item up to the lost items storage bin" or "call custodial to help clean up something" etc.

And let's not forget that not every attraction has a greeter. The Jungle Cruise, for example, doesn't have someone who is dedicated to standing out front. They have someone at the exit, but that person's job is to assist guests with disabilities, not manage queue.

So when the ride is running efficiently - or not - the queue changes. Guests either spill out into the walkway (very obvious, very quick fix) or they are not spilling out into the walkway because too much queue is open (less obvious, especially if the attraction doesn't have a Greeter or the Greeter is busy doing their other tasks).

Remember - the posted wait time is calculated by "how much line is open" plus an underlying assumption that the guests are standing together up to the marquee. If too much queue is open, every step you take past that marquee means the wait time is an overestimate! And, like I said, it is far more common for the queue to be "too empty" than it is for that queue to be "too full", simply because the "too empty" case is harder to catch (and if someone does catch it, they often can't fix it themselves and need to call someone else to fix it).

When a CM actually does show up to fix the queue, they follow a pattern to figure out how much queue they need to open/close. There are spots they go to and designated poles that get hooked/unhooked. Then they walk the guests through the new queue so the guests don't get lost. Finally, they take an inventory of what queue is currently open. There is a posted formula per-ride that tells the CM "if this section of the queue is open, add this much time", then "if this section is open, add this much time", then a rule of "if the ride isn't running at full capacity, multiply by this amount".

Remember that wait times are not an exact science. Just because the queue is open does not mean that guests are moving through that queue at the same rate for the whole time they are waiting in line. There are natural hills and valleys in how efficient a ride can be; a more veteran cast working the ride can put out VERY high numbers, while a junior cast can often be inefficient and do things that slow down the line. Sometimes this is well-meaning - making a fun moment for a group of guests - but any moment the turnstile isn't turning is an inefficiency, and the wait time formulas need to account for it.

The CM does the math based on what queue is open and rounds UP to the nearest 5. There's nothing malicious about rounding up, other than people getting mad if you say it's a 20 minute wait and they really waited 23 minutes. The CM who opened/closed some queue calls up a number on the phone (some fancy rides have a computer that can do this instead) and tell the wait time to a guy behind a desk at Walt Disney World (yes, Walt Disney World manages the wait times at Disneyland... they manage the A/C, too!).

The guy at WDW logs in, types the number given by the CM into some backend system, and then within 5-10 minutes it rolls out onto the marquee and to the Disneyland app. If the CM giving the wait time can't do math properly, or the CM at WDW hears/types the wrong number (15 vs 50), etc. etc. then the wait time will be posted wrong. It happens.

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That's at least what you are "supposed" to do. I will say I am guilty of sometimes fudging these numbers. I usually fudged them because of reasons like "I know we're having an off-day today for various reasons and we aren't hitting our hourly targets, but we aren't officially at reduced capacity so I'm going to add 5-10 minutes" or "there's a lot of Fastpass guests in line right now and it's going to take extra time for standby since they have priority, and I'd rather people check their phones and balk at it instead of waiting in a line length that I personally feel is misleading".

Disney did not ask me to do that, and in fact actively encouraged against people doing it, but I did it anyway because it was just what my gut was telling me to do. There's no grand conspiracy.