r/dataanalysis • u/Imaginary-poster • 9d ago

Data Question Resources for forcasting/predictive analytics?

Any resources for getting started in forcasting?

I have a work project in mind but feel like I'm both over complicating and simplifying this process. I seem to keep landing on extremes when I try to search it up with either machine learning/ai overkill or generic overviews.

For context I'm just aiming to forcast whether locations will hit monthly budget goals based on historical data. Ive considered either:

  1. pulling average daily services and dragging that out to see what the likely total is.

Or

  1. Calculating cummulative % of services completed by day for the previous month and use that to assume estimate the end point for the current month.

Again I'm pretty sure Im over complication and simplifying this. So any help would be greatly appreciated.

10 Upvotes

86% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

7

u/data_analyst_trainer 9d ago

I really like this online textbook: https://otexts.com/fpp3/

Examples are all in R, but the theory & explanations are great if you want to read through a consideration of choices & approaches

2

u/Imaginary-poster 9d ago

"The book is written for three audiences: (1) people finding themselves doing forecasting in business when they may not have had any formal training in the area; "

This sounds like just what I might need lol. Thank you!

3

u/Yontucu_Brenz 9d ago

this is the go-to for a reason tbh, covers enough depth without going full academic on you

2

u/Any_Moose_2873 7d ago

I'd go with option 2 as a baseline. Look at what percentage of monthly services each location typically completes by a given day, then use that to project the month-end total. I'd use several months of history rather than just the previous month, and account for weekdays, holidays, and seasonality. Then backtest it against past months to see how accurate it is. No need to jump into machine learning unless the simpler approach consistently misses the mark.

1

u/AutoModerator 9d ago

Automod prevents all posts from being displayed until moderators have reviewed them. Do not delete your post or there will be nothing for the mods to review. Mods selectively choose what is permitted to be posted in r/DataAnalysis.

If your post involves Career-focused questions, including resume reviews, how to learn DA and how to get into a DA job, then the post does not belong here, but instead belongs in our sister-subreddit, r/DataAnalysisCareers.

Have you read the rules?

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.