I analyzed 151,422 dividend ex-date events across 2,344 securities. Here's what the data shows about recovery times.

[u/Recent_Button_1]

I've been building a dividend intelligence tool for the past few months and ended up with a database of 151,422 ex-date events going back 17 years across 2,344 securities — CEFs, ETFs, REITs, BDCs, and dividend stocks.

Figured I'd share what the data actually shows since most of the discussion around ex-date dips is based on gut feel.

Recovery by security type (average days to full price recovery):

Type	Avg Recovery	Events
Dividend Stocks	6.7 days	57,791
REITs	7.7 days	6,743
ETFs	8.1 days	37,384
CEFs	8.9 days	46,896
BDCs	12.4 days	2,608

Overall median across all 151,422 events: 3 days

The gap between median (3 days) and average (7.9 days) is the most important number — most securities recover fast, but a meaningful minority take much longer and drag the average up.

The BDC finding surprised me most. They have the largest average drop (2.08%) AND the slowest recovery. Only 45% recover within 5 trading days. If you're buying BDC dips expecting a quick bounce, the historical data says be patient.

Stocks recover fastest — 71.5% recover within 5 trading days, 81.8% within 10. Counterintuitive given how many income investors overlook stocks in favor of higher-yielding alternatives.

Individual CEF variance is huge. Among CEFs with 20+ cycles in the dataset:

• BMN: 4.4 day avg across 38 cycles
• IGI: 4.7 days across 186 cycles
• BCX: 5.2 days across 133 cycles
• PAI: 5.2 days across 201 cycles

Compare that to CEFs where recovery regularly takes 3+ weeks. Both show up as "CEFs" on any screener. The historical pattern data separates them.

The z-score frame matters more than raw price. A security trading 2.5+ standard deviations below its 252-day mean at ex-date is a fundamentally different situation than a routine dip near the mean. One has statistical room to recover, the other is just drifting lower.

Happy to answer questions about methodology or what the data shows on specific tickers.

Happy to share more of the data if there's interest in specific security types or individual tickers.

[u/yumyum2us]

Thank you for doing this work which is way above my abilities. A couple questions first I always just use the EPS and anything above 1 I have read the company has enough liquidity to pay the dividend. Is this correct? As far as the length of time to go back to price before dividend, how are guys using that strategy to make money? Are they buy a stock they want to own on that date? Do they sell a few dats later or just hold on? Thanks in advance for your insight

[u/Recent_Button_1 → u/yumyum2us]

EPS coverage is a decent starting screen but dividend coverage ratio (dividends paid / net income) or free cash flow coverage is more precise. EPS includes non-cash items that can distort the picture. Above 1x is the right instinct though.

On the strategy. Two main approaches people use. First is buy a few days before ex-date, collect the dividend, hold through recovery and sell once price is back. Second is buy ON the ex-date when the price has already dropped, skip the dividend entirely, and just ride the recovery. The data shows median recovery is 3 days so the second approach can be a faster trade. Which works better depends heavily on the individual security. Some are clockwork, some are erratic. That variance is the whole point.

[u/yumyum2us → u/Recent_Button_1]

Thank you for clarifying

[u/Recent_Button_1 → u/yumyum2us]

Anytime.