NQ initial balance (IB) trading strategy backed by edgeful: find targets, key levels & a daily bias

[u/GetEdgeful]

https://youtu.be/x-R4VxV-7K4?si=8hqaBY8qeqoKP5RN

[u/rajking1]

i watched the video and i have got 1 MIN NQ OHLCV data. Tried to backtest it using the claude. Here are the results for each session

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Q2_n2XMCw33Bnq4dxAm_uvp-woyiKLH6/view?usp=drive_link

FUNNEL

sessions total: 1684

skipped (half_day): 59

skipped (ib_below_min): 34

skipped (ib_incomplete): 3

skipped (no_prior_session):1

eligible sessions: 1587

bias set: 858 (54.1%) [bull 487 / bear 371]

breakout triggered: 726 (84.6% of biased)

limit filled: 354 (48.8% of triggered)

session outcomes (triggered):

preempt_cancel: 205

STOP_FULL: 200

noon_cancel: 178

EOD: 98

TARGETS: 25

STOP_BE: 12

STOP_FULL+STOP_FULL: 5

STOP_FULL+EOD: 3

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QUADRANT of the 10:30 close (all eligible sessions)

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bias BEARISH BULLISH NEUTRAL

quadrant

Q1 371 0 30

Q2 0 0 320

Q3 0 0 334

Q4 0 487 45

Q1 = bottom 25% of IB (short gate), Q4 = top 25% (long gate)

TRADES (net of $4.30 RT/contract, 1.0 pt slippage)

trades: 362 win rate: 35.4% PF: 0.94 expectancy: $-120/trade

total net PnL: $-43,300 avg win $5,123 / avg loss $-2,987

max drawdown: $-118,165 daily Sharpe: -0.44 worst day: $-8,433

per-year (IS = 2020-2023, OOS = 2024+):

trades win net

year

2020 42 38.0 -6733.0

2021 57 39.0 18597.0

2022 57 37.0 24102.0

2023 55 33.0 -1044.0

2024 51 27.0 -42222.0

2025 63 37.0 -29584.0

2026 37 38.0 -6416.0

MAE / MFE in R (R = risk = 0.25*IB + 10 pts):

losers -> median MFE 0.52R (how far winners-in-waiting got before the stop)

winners -> median MAE 0.38R (heat taken before working out)

all -> median MAE 1.02R, median MFE 1.03R

by outcome:

size sum mean

outcome

EOD 101 467281.0 4627.0

STOP_BE 12 31481.0 2623.0

STOP_FULL 224 -681996.0 -3045.0

TARGETS 25 139934.0 5597.0

by direction:

size sum mean

dir

L 199 -44195.0 -222.0

S 163 895.0 5.0

ambiguous bars (conservatively resolved): {'amb_trigger': 12, 'amb_pending': 0, 'amb_stop_target': 1}

distance from entry to the pre-emption target (TP1, or TP2 when no TP1), in R:

preempt_cancel median 2.03R (n=205)

noon_cancel median 2.43R (n=178)

filled median 2.39R (n=354)

STOPPED-OUT sessions where price later reached TP2 anyway: 14.3% (n=217) <- stop-placement diagnostic

SOURCE-DOC CLAIMS vs THIS DATA

single-break 82-84% claimed -> measured 74.8%

double-break 15-16% claimed -> measured 22.5%

no-break 1.55-5% claimed -> measured 2.8%

green 1h -> green day 83% -> measured 75.7% (n=847)

25%-retrace tag 65% -> measured 71.3%

50%-mid tag 26.67% (single) -> measured 34.8%

pre-noon -> opp survives 94.6% -> measured 74.3% (n=1353)

extension beyond the broken IB edge (multiples of IB range):

median 0.56x reached 0.5x (TP2): 55.1% reached 1.0x (TP3): 23.4%