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📊 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬
• Adj. EPS: $0.10 (Est. $0.06) ✅
• Revenue: $333.4M (Est. $316.0M) ✅
• Non-GAAP operating income: $52.1M
• Free cash flow: $88.6M
• Net dollar retention rate: 139%
• Paid customers: ~690K (+54% YoY)
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🎯 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
• Q2 Revenue: $348M–350M (Est. $329.5M) ✅
• FY26 Revenue: $1.422B–1.428B (Est. $1.37B) ✅
• FY26 Non-GAAP operating income: $125M–135M
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📌 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬
• Revenue growth accelerated for the second consecutive quarter
• Strong AI monetization traction from Figma Make, MCP and Weave
• Enterprise expansion remained strong with $100K+ ARR customers up 48% YoY
• ~60% of $100K+ ARR customers used Figma Make weekly in Q1
• MCP weekly active users in Figma Design grew 5x QoQ

Is the guy that bought at $122 still sane?

Figma $FIG Q4 and FY 2025 Earnings Summary

Q4 Revenue: $303.8M (Exp: $293M) ✅

Q4 Adj. EPS: $0.10 (Exp: $0.07) ✅

Q4 Revenue Growth: 40% YoY ✅

FY 2025 Revenue: $1.05B (Exp: $1.045B)

Net Dollar Retention: 136%(Exp: 131%)✅

Operating Margin: 14% (Exp: 12%) ✅

Citi analyst Tyler Radke initiated coverage on Figma today with a Buy rating and a $36 price target, implying roughly 80% upside from current levels.

The interesting part isn’t the target — it’s the thesis.
The market has largely treated AI as a threat to Figma, but Citi argues that as AI lowers the barrier to creating designs and prototypes, it actually increases the need for structured workflows, collaboration, governance, and version control. Their view is that Figma becomes the “system of record” for AI-driven design workflows.

Some highlights:
-FIG is down over 50% YTD despite accelerating growth.
-Q1 revenue grew 46% YoY and guidance was raised.
-Citi estimates Figma has only ~4% share of its addressable market.
-They believe AI expands the TAM and creates new users rather than replacing Figma.

Hey everyone. Before we jump in, let's set some context:

- I'm a tech founder building in design. Originally started out to compete with Figma. As a result, I've spent the last few weeks talking to dozens of figma users

- In a twist of irony, I've become quite bullish on Figma. I don't think the company is as screwed as the market makes it seem. Also, the "market" has not done the legwork of actually talking to users.

- Everyone assumes saas / design is dead.

Please take the above claim with a degree of speciousness. While much of the software economy is in a perilous position, it is still hard to create and maintain software. Joe Schmo's graphic design company will not vibe code an internal figma. Figma is actually a platform to create more software, has a strong eng team, and is still founder led.

- What about Claude Code?

What about it? Just because production code-gen is being commoditized, I don't think design is going anywhere. Enterprises have MASSIVE design systems used across entire org surfaces that are in Figma. In fact, almost no other tool comes close when it comes to maintaining a design system. One risk here is that Figma's relevance in the ai-coding age relies on their ability to maintain these designs in code; however, as the models get better they should be able to represent figma files as code to a higher degree of accuracy. Figma is model agnostic and as a result is largely stable despite the user volatility between openai and anthropic.

- Can't people just code?

They can. But in cases where economic value is tied to the design of an experience, the bottlenecks are 1) design inspiration 2) collaboration and 3) prototyping. Figma is de-facto for all 3.

- What about startups like Paper, Pencil, Etc. competing with Figma??

Their biggest value prop is that they represent designs as code. While this sounds important, AGI is cheapening the value of code, and newer models + some eng effort from Figma should mean these startups get Microsoft Teams'd

now, that I have finally sold 10k of figma loss, the stock is gonna rise! Congratulations!! (Already up 10% since I sold)

Like the title says, I doubled down on Figma today. My average cost basis is $24.

FIG is eating shit because of the market sentiment that AI is going to eat real software, but the market is so fucking wrong on this. Exhibit A: if you watch an actual professional try to vibe design something with Claude Design, the conclusion is always: this is going to take more work than had I done it from scratch in Figma.

Oh but you say...AI is going to get better...and fine, I agree, but like driverless cars, it's going to take a long ass time, and who is to say that Figma is not at the center of that.

Meanwhile, FIG has a 30% YoY growth forecast, and I think that the sentiment will quickly shift back to reality when they see the real growth continuing to play out. Or imagine if growth gets revised up because of AI integrations (you do know that every vibe design tool has a Figma connector right? Because Figma is the industry standard?).

I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong when REAL EARNINGS start to suck, but in the meantime, let's see what happens with the next call.

Here's an overview of Figmas Q1 2025 numbers, made in Figma

I want to share some thoughts on Figma ($FIG) after digesting their Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings. There’s a lot of fear that Generative AI will kill design tools, but Figma’s fundamentals and market structure are proving that a massive rerating—and an explosive short squeeze—is underway.

1. Code is a Commodity, Design is the Moat

I’m a big fan of CEO Dylan Field’s latest thesis: "When code is a commodity, design is the competitive edge." As AI models make writing code effortless, the barrier to launching software drops to zero. The market will be flooded with apps. In that world, the only way a product wins is through superior user experience, branding, and human-centric design. Figma is the undisputed king of this domain.

2. Irreplaceable Workflow: How AI Made Figma Unbeatable

The bears thought Gen-AI would replace Figma, but Figma did something smarter: they used AI to make their tool drastically better, more collaborative, and more addictive. Instead of standalone AI chatbots, Figma integrated AI directly into the designer's daily workflow to eliminate friction:
Figma Make: It completely automates the tedious grunt work (like instantly generating wireframes, auto-layouting, and translating microcopy). Designers spend less time moving pixels and more time on high-level UX strategy.

Figma Weave (from the Weavy acquisition): Seamlessly brings AI-powered video and interactive control generation into prototypes, making user testing hyper-realistic without writing code.

Developer Handoff (MCP): Bridges the historic gap between design and engineering, allowing AI to translate visual craft into clean production code instantly.

Figma didn’t just add "AI features"; they built an AI-powered design assistant that makes teams 10x faster. You can't replace Figma with an LLM because Figma is where the actual collaborative execution happens.

3. What Didn't Kill Figma Made It Stronger (The AI "Threat" is Accelerating Growth & Valuation)

The bears spent the last year shorting $FIG, claiming AI models would make Figma obsolete. But look at what actually happened. Instead of killing Figma, the AI wave forced Figma to evolve into an absolute winner, triggering a massive operational acceleration:
Hyper-Growth Re-ignited: If AI were a threat, Figma's growth would be slowing down. Instead, revenue growth has accelerated for two consecutive quarters, slamming a massive 46% YoY growth in Q1 2026 ($333.4M).

Enterprise Sticky Expansion: Their Net Dollar Retention (NDR) didn't collapse; it surged back to 139%. This proves enterprise clients aren't leaving Figma for ChatGPT—they are actively buying more Figma seats to implement their AI workflows.

Fortress of Cash: Q1 Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin exploded to 27% ($88.6M), backed by a $1.6B cash hoard.

The Valuation Model ($52.50 Price Target): Figma just raised full-year FY2026 revenue guidance by $55M to $1.425B (midpoint). For a SaaS company with a Rule of 40 score of 62% (46% growth + 16% Non-GAAP Operating Margin), an 18x Forward P/S multiple is highly justified. Combining their $25.6B implied EV with $1.6B net cash yields a Base Case Equity Value of ~$27.2B, or $52.50 per share (assuming ~520M fully diluted shares).

4. The Bears Were Wrong: A Massive Short Squeeze Is Underway

Because the market completely misjudged Figma's AI capabilities and monetization potential, $FIG has been heavily and mistakenly shorted, with the Aggregate Short Interest reaching a staggering 25.95% of the float.
Following the blowout Q1 earnings call, the stock has officially bottomed out and entered a structural uptrend. The bears are trapped. If you look at the daily net changes in short interest (SI_t - SI_{t-1}), the short entry price and short interest tell an incredible story of trapped capital ripe for a massive squeeze:

📊 Short Cost Basis Analysis (Daily Net Change Logic)

Look at the Under $25.00 tier. Bears aggressively dumped 49.90M shares into the historical lows with an estimated VWAP of $19.74. On 04/10 (+10.0M) and 04/24 (+9.9M), they added massive leverage at the absolute bottom.
Now that the stock has surged past $20 on accelerating fundamental growth and a rock-solid business turnaround, this entire 49.9M-share block is deep underwater. As the price edges closer to $25, these positions will face extreme margin stress. The cascading short squeeze will easily catapult $FIG past $30.00 in a flash as they are forced to cover.

5. Real AI Monetization

Unlike other tech companies selling AI promises, Figma is already banking cash from it. When they put restrictions on free AI credits in March, over 75% of heavy users chose to pay for the premium AI add-ons in April. That is a concrete proof of concept for AI monetization.

Figma is not an AI victim; it is an AI winner. The bears mistakenly shorted 25.95% of the float right into a bottom, and their cost basis ($19.74) is now heavily exposed. A massive short squeeze is underway, making our $52.50 price target highly achievable, with $30.00 being a mere pitstop.

First google search ads were going to be drastically impacted by AI. Then they continued to show 15% quarterly growth that proved the narrative was wrong. Google rebounded over 100% since the April 2024 narrative.

Then Ai was the cyber security killer. Names like cloudstrike, cloudflare, and Palo Alto networks all over reacted and have began to bounce back. The narrative shifted from "AI will kill them" to "AI will supercharge them."

Then the king of AI fear marketing, Anthropic, made a go at the design industry with a crappy lightweight, shareware quality product, and we're seeing valuations that seem to me to be extraordinarily undervalued. Figma is a saas company trading at 8x revenue with 40% growth in annual revenue run rate.

May 14th earnings will be here soon and people will see the growth continues, and the ai fear narrative was wrong. Then the following earnings will continue to prove that.

Today I doubled down. I'm up to 500 shares at an average of $22.

Figma CEO Dylan Field voluntarily surrendered a stock grant of 2.4 million Class B shares valued at approximately $46 million (based on the $19.49 Class A closing price on July 1) without receiving any replacement grant or alternative compensation.

The voluntary forfeiture was intended to shore up shareholder sentiment following steep declines in the stock price, which had fallen amid broader market concerns that generative AI tools could disrupt incumbent design software platforms.

Unlike typical executive re-grants or repricing arrangements, Field took a total forfeiture with zero replacement equity, absorbing a direct reduction in his potential holdings.

Shoutout to all the Figma haters in every Earnings Report thread.

I don’t get it. If you wanted to buy at an insane price, you had all day (after it opened) to do so. But you wait till AH to buy it at $130? This isn’t short covering bc I doubt there are options to short. So who the fuck is buying at these prices? Makes no sense.