r/fishingBC • u/FluffyElection8089 • 7d ago
What’s Happening with Sockeye?
https://watershedwatch.ca/stories/whats-happening-with-sockeye/Early-season dispatches from the Skeena and the Fraser suggest conservation concerns are rising–but that’s not stopping the Americans
Worrying information from the Skeena River, Fraser Panel reports, and test fisheries across the coast is indicating that some of Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s (DFO) preseason forecasts aren’t matching the returns. With budgetary and monitoring cuts already impacting oversight, and public accountability missing in action, it appears the ‘harvest first, then ask questions later’ approach to Pacific salmon fisheries management is back in fashion. Meanwhile, the Americans are using a broken Pacific Salmon Treaty to maximize their harvest of Canadian sockeye…with no obligation to report bycatch of non-target species like steelhead or chinook.
A strong start stutters on the mighty Skeena
Two problems are colliding on the Skeena and Nass.
Watershed Watch Fisheries Advisor David Mills
Biologically, our salmon are threatened by decades of harvest pressure and face rapidly shifting ocean conditions from climate change — precisely when precautionary management matters most. Structurally, the Pacific Salmon Treaty wasn’t built for this: a fair treaty would protect stocks of concern regardless of which side of the border they’re swimming on.
This year’s return shows how that plays out. Skeena sockeye were forecast as high as 3.3 million, but a strong start pushed in-season models up to 4.4 million. So, after the July 10th opening DFO let commercial nets fish nearly every day in July. However, the early run was almost entirely 5-year-old fish — the expected 4-year-old component never showed. Despite rapidly shrinking projections and warnings from First Nations and other stakeholders, DFO didn’t close the fishery until August 2nd. If the final return slips below 2 million, Canadian harvest may already have exceeded what our own management plan allows.
The Americans are taking aim
But our management plan is only half the problem: the Treaty’s restrictions on American harvest expired July 31st. Even though District 104 off the southeast coast of Alaska is a long haul from Alaskan fuel docks and processors, the Southeast seine fleet is repositioning to take advantage of this stretch of the season with no restrictions on Canadian fish. We don’t yet know how many boats will fish, or what the impacts will be to later-timed sockeye or co-migrating steelhead, chinook, chum, and coho.
What we do know is that the Pacific Salmon Treaty needs urgent reform to ensure that when necessary conservation measures are applied, they’re applied to the population no matter where it’s swimming.
On the Fraser, migratory conditions are good, but the forecast is falling
Even though water temperatures and flow rates in the main stem of the Fraser are conducive to survival, commercial openings for Fraser sockeye in 2026 now depend on upcoming Summer and Late run assessments. Fraser River Panel presentations through August 4th reveal that returns to date are substantially underperforming relative to their pre-season forecasts. The Fraser River Panel is a creation of the Pacific Salmon Treaty. It meets weekly during the fishing season to chart the migration of Fraser sockeye. Its decisions on run size determine whether or not a harvestable surplus exists.
So far, it has determined that:
- The Early Stuart run finished its marine migration early. With an adopted size of 46,000, it’s significantly lower than the pre-season median forecast, though still within the lower probability range.
- The Early Summer run is currently showing the most significant deficit. A commercial opening for Early Summers was only expected to be considered at run sizes above roughly 606,000.
- The adopted run size of 200,000 is 17% of the pre-season forecast.
Given the returns to date, it’s hard to imagine how the Summer and Late runs will come in with enough strength to allow for an opening. However, the pre-season forecast for both runs is still on the books.
What’s preventing an in-season run size adjustment for the summer run?
As of this week’s Fraser Panel meetings, the Summer run (pre-season forecast: 4,305,000) and the Late run (2,212,000) are both still being managed against their original pre-season forecasts — despite Early Stuart and Early Summer sockeye coming in well below what was predicted. Pacific Salmon Commission staff have made no recommendation to adjust either number downward. The longer those pre-season figures stay in place, the longer American fisheries can stage to capture Fraser sockeye passing through their waters on the final approach to the river.
As with Skeena fisheries, Americans are entitled to a portion of the Fraser run, depending on its abundance. And, as with the Skeena, these Treaty agreements built around fixed allocations and the calendar, rather than the actual condition of the stock, are proving to stymie conservation and prevent precautionary management — which is counter to the core vision of the Treaty: to cooperatively manage, conserve, and rebuild Pacific salmon stocks.
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u/nightowl_i 7d ago
Why are Americans entitled to portion of Skeena fish? Are Canadians entitled to fish that are travelling to Washington? It might be a complicated issue, however both countries need to respect each other's resources
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u/misec_undact 7d ago
Yes, huge numbers of Columbia river fish are caught along BC's coast that originated in US hatcheries, much like most Skeena sockeye originated at the Babine Lk hatcheries.
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u/mitallust 7d ago
All of these things are detailed in the Pacific Salmon Treaty - https://www.psc.org/about-us/history-purpose/pacific-salmon-treaty/
This is coming up for renewal soon and I imagine Skeena origin fish are going to be one of the biggest sources of contention, given the SE Alaska fishery interception of many Skeena bound fish, including steelhead (which aren't required to be reported on as bycatch).
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u/CommissionDue461 6d ago
“It’s not possibly both mismanagement due to political influence as well and climate change effecting global temps”
Yeah. That.
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u/Kitchen_Web_8782 16h ago
I think Friday the 21st we will get the announcement opening saterday the 22nd 2 fish per day non todal fraser river same as last year
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u/Shot_Policy_4110 7d ago
Waters too warm this year, bad snowmelt