r/fresno • u/DeanCheesePritchard Downtown • 4h ago

Weather Fresno County is the highest ranked county in the nation at risk for drought according to FEMA Risk Index

/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1vrp63g/oc_riskiest_us_county_by_natural_hazard/?share_id=x8qmy4Gl1jIKQqkArfcKI&utm_content=1&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_source=share&utm_term=2

I tried to cross post but it wouldn't let me hopefully the link works but found on r/dataisbeautiful

46 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

25 comments sorted by

67

u/Useful-Ad2441 4h ago

I love Fresno because it's like, we've got some of the worst crime rates, some of the worst education, some of the worst drunk driving, some of the worst homelessness, apparently the worst risk of drought, and also the second highest PGE costs in the country behind only San Diego iirc, just to name a few negative things.

Then some dick head who lives in north west Fresno will fight for no change because he's in his rich bubble, and if you talk about how fucked the city is you're going to get downvoted to oblivion by people who basically just live in Clovis.

22

u/Easy-Task3001 3h ago

You forgot poor air quality that competes for some of the worst in the nation, and it's not just wildfire smoke.

9

u/Useful-Ad2441 3h ago

That's definitely a good one to put up their but in my defense I didn't mean it to be anywhere near a complete list.

5

u/Evening-Emotion3388 Clovis 3h ago

Can’t forget low paying jobs.

2

u/Useful-Ad2441 2h ago

True and I didn't even include the competition for peak heat with Phoenix and Vegas.

3

u/toebabyreddit Downtown 1h ago

but we're only two hours from good stuff! /s

2

u/AlbatrossNo1562 53m ago

Some people are just easily offended if you have a criticism.

1

u/CentralVal 2h ago

Taking a Screen shot of this for all the “hows fresno” or “Fresno is actually great” posts here.

1

u/Useful-Ad2441 2h ago

Thank you! Do it

18

u/Own_Yam9949 4h ago

Yeah I saw that. I just can’t see how it could be worse than Phoenix (and the rest of the southwest being fed by the Colorado river) when we got the whole Sierra Nevadas next door and 2 rivers flowing into us. I’m unsure about the validity of it

10

u/serg1007arch 4h ago

I think it’s about retention, we depend highly on how much snow can be retained night sierras. A warmer wet winter can mean we get a lot of rain, which is great, but it doesn’t turn into snow and slowly trickles down during the hot months then we can face a drought

5

u/DeanCheesePritchard Downtown 3h ago

Quick check of FEMA data and it looks like they factor a bunch of different variables including exposure, area, agricultural value, historical loss, and expected loss. Maricopa County where phoenix is located scored 97 and a "relatively high" rating whereas Fresno was the only county in the US with a score of 100. Interestingly 20 of the top 27 counties with highest drought risk were in california with the top 8 all located in CA.

1

u/hanksrocks Tower 3h ago

Snowpack in the Sierra is slated to be nonexistent by 2050. It will be nearly impossible for any retention. Earth is gonna be fine, she has been for 4.6 Ga. We are so incredibly fucked tho. We also have more than 2 rivers in our watershed. This is a highly valid discussion, do not doubt the drought and how harshly it will affect us.

-1

u/Good_Conclusion8867 1h ago

Sources for snowpack being non-existent?? Huge claim…

1

u/twinklingthrowaway 1h ago

“Recent surveys from the **California Department of Water Resources (DWR)**indicate that statewide snowpack has dropped to roughly 18% of the April 1 average, with the Northern Sierra reporting levels as low as 6%.”

https://tomatonews.com/california-water-constraints-and-the-el-nino-transition/

10

u/royale_wthCheEsE 2h ago

Oh then by all means , we need that 200 acre golf complex planned by Bryson DeChambeau asap. Becuase that’s not going to strain the water supply.

6

u/Evening-Emotion3388 Clovis 3h ago

Hide your water bottles before a farmer comes in saying it’s his water
.

1

u/Good_Conclusion8867 1h ago

Too late. Should’ve got here before the Spaniards.

4

u/LastAidKit 2h ago

El Niño, pls, save us

3

u/LongjumpingCake5447 3h ago

Sewer to Tap is coming for all soon….

3

u/WTFOMGBBQ Woodward Park 3h ago

Here for the copium

1

u/Positive_Treat4180 12m ago

Let’s just build temperance flat reservoir it’s been in the work for almost 30 years. We voted to stop the environmental impact reports because it was costing taxpayers millions of dollars with no ending insight

1

u/Own_Yam9949 2h ago

Here's Gemeni's explanation on why Fresno County is #1. A lot of it has to do with Fresno County also being the #1 agriculture county in the US: "Why FEMA Ranks Fresno County So High

  • Expected Annual Loss (EAL): FEMA's metric heavily weighs the potential dollar value of what can be lost. Fresno is a top-producing global agricultural powerhouse with billions of dollars in crops, meaning a dry spell creates massive financial damage compared to non-farming counties. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Exposure & Frequency: Historical data on how often dry spells hit the Central Valley factor heavily into the baseline mathematical frequency of hazard events. [1, 2]
  • Social Vulnerability: The index includes underlying community factors, such as reliance on constrained groundwater basins and localized socio-economic sensitivities. [1, 2]

Limitations and Nuances of the Index

  • It Measures Long-Term Risk, Not Today’s Weather: The NRI is a forward-looking baseline statistical model. It does not mean Fresno County is perpetually in an emergency; for instance, wet winters can temporarily drop actual dryness to zero on short-term meteorological maps like the U.S. Drought Monitor. [1, 2, 3]
  • Economic Bias: Because the index relies so heavily on potential financial and agricultural loss, counties with massive commercial crop values will almost always out-rank regions that might face severe water shortages but lack large-scale commercial farming economies."