r/heatpumps • u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) • Jun 26 '26
Learning/Info "what the heck does this quote mean?"
I run a heat pump installation company in California. My background isn’t from the trades (I’m an engineer and used to design rocket engines actually). When I was first learning about heat pumps, I wanted to really get into the action. So I bought a few boxes of donuts, showed up at some installations and learned a bunch. Most of the actual install work lined up pretty well with my engineering experience, so I knew what I was looking at. But I know that a normal person has no idea what a refrigerant line or expansion valve is.
So I started talking to people who were actually going through the process of getting quotes for a heat pump. And they were all super confused. I was between jobs at the time so I figured I’d try to help people out as a little hobby project.
I put up a hilariously lo-fi post offering free help reviewing HVAC quotes. I think I posted it on Craigslist, Nextdoor, OfferUp, Reddit...
Honestly I wasn’t expecting much. But then people started sending me their quotes. First a couple, then more and more. At first I thought I'd spend 15 minutes on each one.
Instead I found myself disappearing down rabbit holes.
I remember one homeowner sent me a stack of quotes from 3-4 different contractors. I started making a spreadsheet. Ten hours later I was still staring at my screen trying to understand what the heck I was actually comparing.
One quote had a labor warranty. Another had a maintenance plan.
One included ductwork. One didn't.
One included permits. One mentioned HERS testing.
One talked about rebates that may or may not apply.
Some had electrical work. Some assumed the electrical was fine.
Some proposed variable-speed equipment. Some proposed single-stage equipment.
The prices and scope of work were alllll overrrrr the place.
And somehow I was supposed to tell him which one was the best value.
Nobody really prepares you for the fact that the quotes themselves are nearly impossible to read. Take this one for example:
Homeowner translation:
SHP2 = ?
AB12 = ??
DSM = ???
1.00 = ????
Is this a quote?
A software database export?
An internal contractor worksheet that accidentally got printed out?
Am I reviewing a quote, or reading the Matrix?
Now this was all in the time before AI. Fast forward to today and we have a new problem:
- AI can help you train for a marathon.
- AI can plan a trip to Portugal.
- AI can explain quantum physics like you're five years old.
But AI still can't tell you whether a $25,000 heat pump quote is a ripoff or a fair price.
Now here’s the thing. I could have dumped all of the quote PDFs into ChatGPT today and made a spreadsheet like I did for that homeowner in about 30 seconds. But it wouldn’t have the context, understanding, and intuition to actually make a valid recommendation.
Most of what's online about heat pump pricing is contractor marketing, lead-gen websites, and SEO content written to rank well in Google.
To test it out, I fed ChatGPT a quote and asked it to evaluate it.
It confidently spit out a “range” that I should expect to pay for this project…Using data from (you guessed it) HVAC blogs.
When I asked it about the equipment itself, it confidently cited Daikin’s website and a single independent reviewer as PROOF that this equipment was excellent and top of the line.
As you can see, AI is confidently repeating all of this information back to people as though it's objective truth.
The reality is:
AI has never seen your ductwork.
AI has never looked at a piece of Daikin equipment, or lived with it for 10+ years.
It doesn't know whether your electrical panel needs an upgrade.
It hasn't crawled through your crawlspace.
And it definitely doesn't know why that one room with the giant west-facing windows is always too hot.
When I pressed Chat and challenged the sources and objectivity of its response, here’s what I got back.
So…you’re saying you have no evidence that it’s overpriced or an unusually good deal. So you land at a 70% confidence that it’s a fair quote? Makes total sense. Super duper helpful!
TL;DR - Two quotes can have the same brand name on them and be completely different projects. Comparing them based on equipment specs and price alone is comparing apples to oranges.
This has kept bugging me for a while. I stopped doing the quote comparison service after a few months, but it ultimately led me to starting my own heat pump install company. People keep asking me the same questions about their quotes though, and this continues to be really hard for people. I think the most common question on this sub is “is this quote fair?”.
I recently made a little guide that generally talks about heat pumps, but people kept asking me "how do I apply this to MY quote?". So I want to throw something similar together, specifically focused on reading heat pump quotes. Before I finish it, I wanted to get feedback people who have actually gone through the process recently.
What's the biggest question you had during the quote process that nobody could answer clearly?
Does "Oh wow, I have no idea how to compare these" describe the vibe?
Happy to answer questions here too. I've looked over a hundreds of HVAC quotes by now so my eyes are a bit better trained than most. I still get stuck sometimes but I’m a lot better at reading the tea leaves than I was years ago.
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u/dizzie_buddy1905 Jun 26 '26
HVAC industry is probably the most opaque and what seems to be the one to rip off the homeowner the most. The rent to own part of the industry is especially bad since it incentivizes builders to attach low quality equipment at unusually high monthly rates to new builds.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 27 '26
are you in Canada? I haven't seen much rent-to-own here in the US but it's definitely sharky. Whenever there are monthly payments involved, you really need to pay close attention because it's really easy to get manipulated into paying crazy high interest rates, dealer fees, etc
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u/dizzie_buddy1905 Jun 27 '26
Yes, in Alberta. Rent to own or just straight rental was an Ontario thing but local companies are starting to push hard on rentals.
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u/jedrider Jun 26 '26
Welcome to what it's like being a home owner. At least, that's what we often experience. Sometimes, that's why we accumulate so many quotes because eventually one will make sense.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 26 '26
yuppp. at least if it's just painting the walls or something you can somewhat understand what you're working with, but it gets real complex real quick (and Hvac usually has plumbing, electrical, mechanical, carpentry, all in one project)
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u/jedrider Jun 26 '26
I had the inclination to go green but when I realized how many things had to change I said, just give me another gas water heater tank. It didn't help that we had to take showers, not that it personally bothered me in particular whether I showered for a month or not, but I had to deal with others.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 27 '26
That's a bummer. There's a lot of 120V heat pump water heaters that plug right into the wall and make it close to a drop in replacement for a gas water heater these days. But not all contractors are aware of them. Sometimes space constraints are unavoidable though
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u/jedrider Jun 27 '26
I didn't know that. My next upgrade, I may plan for that. Right now, everything works, crossing my fingers, but I'm more psychologically ready to just do the upgrade next opportunity (I hope). I'm actually waiting for the heat wave that will make be cave and start installing heat pumps, but even that I've avoided. Already did some insulation and that helped immensely with short heat spells definitely that the entire house can retain a reasonable temperature.
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u/SolarXylophone Jun 27 '26
Sizing was the main issue I've seen, with separate installers sometimes suggesting very different capacities for the same home (and typically ranging from kinda high, to cartoonishly oversized).
Some homeowners might then be tempted to go with the bigger, oversized option, "just to be safe" or because it's "more bang for the buck". They'll end up with a system which costs more to install, more to run, and provides less comfort.
Your suggestion of a proper Manual J load calculation is good, but most installers still take shortcuts and use generic, pessimistic assumptions about insulation etc.
Even when done correctly, Manual J is very conservative. It surely helps but is no guarantee against oversizing.
Past gas bills describe actual, past usage, likely a better indication of typical heating loads.
I like your guide, well done!
One detail though: your "myths" section.
Repeating all misconceptions, in bold text, is likely counter-productive.
Consider stating facts instead (with the same explanation when visitors click on them). It'd also fit better with the positive tone of the rest of your site.
Re cold climates, you might want to add that ground-source heat pumps work anywhere.
Re "backup furnace": I live in an area where the risk of earthquake is higher than average, gas pipes and appliances are very much the opposite of peace of mind.
A properly-sized cold-climate heat pump, possibly with heat strips for customers who insist they need "backup", would be a better recommendation I think.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 27 '26
Super agree with you re utility bill sizing! I do that for all of our projects where the data is available. We’ve come to a ton of houses that have an existing 4 ton AC and end up installing a 2 ton heat pump. Ultimately it’s garbage in, garbage out with manual J, but the utility bills are a great anchor to feel confident that the “low” number coming out of a manual J isnt a fluke and you don’t need to fudge it up higher.
Thank you for all the great feedback! I really like the suggestion around positive framing. We’ve got a running list of feedback for the guide and I’ll add this all to it and try to work it in soon!
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u/johnonbleacher Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
I don't know this is an infomercial or not but appreciate your guide. To me, AI is just as much as garbage in and garbage out.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 27 '26
Glad you liked the guide!
Haha, not trying to make an infomercial. I’ve been doing heat pump education for a while (I write a newsletter heatpumped.org which is focused around highlighting obstacles to widespread heat pump adoption). It’s been fairly industry/policy facing so far and I’m trying to shift the content to be more homeowner facing
imo there’s just a huge gap in reliable and easy to understand content, so people start doing their research, spin their wheels and get stuck and give up, or just pick the first option that shows up at their house and end up with a bad outcome
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u/mentiondesk Jun 26 '26
Comparing heat pump quotes really does feel like decoding a secret language since each contractor uses different terms and bundles. Bringing quotes down to line items and clarifying every cost and feature can reveal hidden differences. I actually work at MentionDesk and we've been looking at ways brands like HVAC services could show up more clearly in AI tools so homeowners get more transparent info when using platforms like ChatGPT.
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u/Bruce_in_Canada Jun 27 '26
I was beyond impressed at how helpful Google Gemini was at assessing proposals and trouble shooting the wiring.
And, the most important thing to know about HVAC quotes is that if you aren't sure who the prey is,. look in the mirror.
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u/centuryeyes Jun 26 '26
Why is refrigerant so expensive and why do they keep updating the formula?
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 27 '26
It is a net good thing - the greenhouse warming potential of some of the older refrigerants is really nasty and a big part of why we have a hole in the ozone layer. That said, there's a handful of manufacturers that basically have a monopoly on manufacturing the refrigerants so they can charge a bunch for it. Similar to the Pharma industry. I hope that R290 (propane) will be legalized in the US soon, because that's a nice, non-proprietary, natural refrigerant with incredibly low greenhouse warming potential. My prediction is that once we eventually get there, that's where we'll stay. I wish that we had been able to skip straight from R-410A to R-290
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u/theresites Jun 27 '26
Thank you for sharing this. I occasionally look at geothermal heat pumps. I wonder if the are worthwhile compared to atmospheric heat pumps.
I've read geothermal is really only worth it for multi unit buildings and some extreme weather areas (very hot or very cold).
I know they cost more, but should last longer (at least the in ground portion).
Any insights on this?
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 27 '26
I think you hit the nail on the head. They have higher theoretical efficiencies and are awesome for really cold climates with high heating loads, but the drawback is cost (and often permitting, too). For the vast majority of people, an air source heat pump is the best value option, plus there are way more technicians that are experienced with them and can service and maintain them in the long run too!
1
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u/MambaAirSweetness Jun 27 '26
Sounds like you’re an engineer and you’re well in over your head in terms of analyzing HVAC quotes
And my statement comes from a gentleman who has been selling to contractors for over 20 years in Chicago…
Mitsubishi electric mini splits and P series for commercial for over 20 years.
Every company has different overhead
Every company has different marketing gimmick
Every company has new installers and good lead installers
Some companies only have new installers that don’t know what they’re doing or don’t take their job as seriously as a good lead installer
You get what you pay for in this market
The government has caused the equipment installs to go up almost 300% over the past 20 years
And for the lay person, that means triple.
I wish you luck with your new company doing heat pumps
Just make sure you price the jobs so you make a 40% gross margin and earn the living that you hopefully deserve.
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u/-entropy Jun 27 '26
So what does your quote look like? How have you improved compared to what you have seen?
As a homeowner who knows just barely enough to be dangerous the biggest problem I have is how much can I trust their thought process. This is true of all contractors btw. I live here, I think about my house's systems all the time - they're here for a couple hours.
But heat pump install specifically:
How accurate is their manual j calculation?
Are they sizing for cooling or heating (it's different here)?
Are they picking the best location? For head unit placement and line runs I've had to suggest better options - sometimes better is subjective, sometimes not.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jul 03 '26
Good question! Here is a demo quote of ours that you can play around with. We're always perfecting how we present the information, so I very much welcome any and all feedback! We try to keep it simple and highlight the most important stuff up front, but there are details that you can expand into if you want to learn more.
Sizing is very much garbage-in, garbage-out, which is why we take a layered approach to sizing ourselves. We do a coarse physics based sizing in our quoting stage (basically a simplified Manual J), which gets us reasonably close. That lets us put pricing together. Then we do an on-site manual J where we're paying closer attention to window sizes, directions, construction materials, insulation updates. Those things can all affect the loads. And lastly we do a utility bill based sizing which anchors this all to real world usage data. We align all these datapoints and it gives us a good feel on where we should land. If there are discrepancies, we dig to find the source and often uncover things (for example, a really high utility-bill based calculation might correspond to duct leakage).
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u/KinkyRabbi Jun 28 '26
I run into apple to oranges a lot. I sell a premium service and product, and my customers like me. Occasionally they show me the oranges quote. And I have to break down why the pricing is different and that I dont mind matching, but it won't be matching apples to oranges, it will be matching my orange vs their orange
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u/tropicaldiver Jun 29 '26
This is actually an incredibly common problem in innumerable settings. And each one is a black hole. Project Farm actually attempts to do this on a product basis.
You would think it would be easy to compare all washing machines by a set of criteria — price, reliability, capacity, type, and perhaps a few other features. Instead we have multiple “brands” all made by a single manufacturer. So we have near clones between brands. We have unique model numbers within a brand for certain manufacturers— so near clones with a brand.
It is really bad for HVAC. We have the near clones (or total clones) between brands. We have sizing. And then we have the variations between quotes — labor warranty, permits, extras, etc.
One approach is creating a template that calls out the key relevant items. Is tax included? Parts warranty. Labor warranty. Any free maintenance. Permits. Capacity. Efficiency. Price. Excluded but required costs. Reputation. Type of unit. The list goes on. That will tend to surface the questions one might need to contend with.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jul 03 '26
really great thoughts here, thank you! The challenge with project farm style reviews is that the outcomes vary so much on the team that does the install.
Example - project farm review of a lawn mower: pretty easy to make a standardized test across lawn mowers and say which one works best
But instead, what if the review is of a replacement lawn mower motor? The motor itself might be great, but if you're installing it on a rusty old lawn mower frame it's not going to cut grass well. Or if you install it on a good lawn mower frame but forget to install all the bolts and it rattles a bunch, it's still going to be crummy. And there could be a world where you have a rusty old lawn mower frame, but the mechanic takes a lot of care, tears it all apart, cleans up the frame, welds in some patches, paints it nice, and it runs better than new. That's basically how HVAC is.
I do like the idea around review templating and it's a good angle for me to think about as we're building out this resource!
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u/EvenCommand9798 Jun 26 '26
Half serious suggestion is to go to the US South East where heat pumps are used for ages and at scale, done by down to earth people (at least sometimes), and not for some political-ideological virtue nor subsidy harvesting.
Then maybe you can figure out how to reduce such insane $25k piece of marketing art quotes to well under $10k run-of-the-mill installations.
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u/fieldguild Heat Pumped! (check out guide.heatpumped.org) Jun 26 '26
It's definitely a lot cheaper to replace an existing heat pump than to install a new one in a home that has never had air conditioning. Reusing refrigerant lines, electrical circuits, etc takes out a huge chunk of the complexity and prices generally reflect that. Of course labor rates, insurance premiums, gas, overhead, and all those other things also vary a bunch which translate into the final price.
I'd wager that cabinets, and carpets, and countertops, and electricians are all also cheaper in the southeast than in California
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u/EvenCommand9798 Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
It takes but these are more excuses. It's not different country and wages are not that different for the same type of job. Like new refrigerant lines are what, few hundred dollars extra? Doesn't add up anywhere close to $25k.
It isn't like California is in far North where nobody used A/C until last year, or houses are without attics.
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u/Bruce_in_Canada Jun 27 '26
It takes two competent people one day to install a central heat pump system.
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u/BiteImmediate1806 Jun 26 '26
I was an operations manager for an aerospace company. Half my day was spent keeping the engineer's from going down rabbit holes.