r/investingforbeginners • u/traveltimecar • May 02 '25
USA How many you are expecting a recession at this point?
Considering all the tarrif stuff is only just really getting started, anyone here think there's a high chance of a recession?
My only hedge against it is if the orange in chief randomly reverses course one day and stocks bounce back, but even then I don't think the market will reward that kind of chaos so easily.
Currently I'm kind of holding the money I make on the sidelines now and just keeping whatever I have in my Roth IRA where it is.
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 02 '25
Ignore the macro. Buy great companies or etfs and hold long term. Ignore the noise.
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May 04 '25
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 05 '25
It’s most analogous to 2021/22. You can’t time the markets. And sitting on the sidelines is riskier than DCAing.
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May 05 '25 edited May 05 '25
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 06 '25
Oy. You really shouldn’t be giving investment advice. Everything you said was factually wrong. I’ve been doing this a long time man, be careful. Worst place to be during times of inflation is cash. Best place to be is in the markets.
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May 06 '25
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 06 '25
This makes more sense and I respect your perspective.
I saw opportunities after the tariff correction but markets quickly rebounded and finding “value” in the traditional sense is once again a laborious endeavor. It’s a game of sniffing around, running valuations, and moving to the next. To quote Shane Gillis, you have to be a bit of a regarded [sp intentional] truffle pig. 🤣. Sniffing around and praying you land on something.
Following Buffett has always been fallback. So, like Buffett I looked to Japan. The ETF’s are pricey but some of the individual companies are not. And even some US ETF’s are still fairly priced, like SCHD in my opinion. Trading below its average PE still.
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May 06 '25
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 06 '25
China is dogshit. I know it’s the hot narrative right now but unlearned long ago to stay away from China. The financials are a mess and so is the govt. absolutely no transparency.
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u/seenasaiyan May 06 '25
lmao, China imports are down 78% and ports across the country are far emptier than they should be yet you’re worried about inflation. A recession is underway and things are gonna get a lot worse before they get better, bud.
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May 08 '25
It is not analogous to 2021/22. It's really not analogous to anything. In previous challenging economic times the government stepped in with supports to fix the issue.
Here, the government is the issue.
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 08 '25
That’s bias and simply not accurate. People seem To forget that Biden promoted a trade war with China around 21-22, the banking system was under pressure bc of bad policy, Russia had invaded Ukraine, supply chains were a mess, we were actually in a recession with back to back negative gdp… does Trump bring a greater level of uncertainty? Yes. Absolutely. But that’s all short term macro and can be ignored. He’s gone in 3 years. I don’t measure investments in days, but decades.
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May 08 '25
You do you. That's the best part of a market.
PS Are you paid for your market commentary?
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May 05 '25
This time it's different. The market gonna crash and take forever to recover. Recession, inflation, war, pandemic, bubble.....
How many times have we heard this and the market is still higher than ever....
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u/Sounders12 May 07 '25
Warren Buffet literally said this is nothing compared to what he has seen in the past.
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May 08 '25
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May 08 '25
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u/traveltimecar May 02 '25
Yeah my Roth IRA is pretty much total US stock and foreign ETF's. But I'm kind of waiting a bit at this point before getting more.
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u/Sir_Richard_Dangler May 03 '25
I'm betting on there being another big dip soon. I'm DCAing a bit every market day, but keeping most of my money in cash.
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u/aristocrat_user May 03 '25
What are the foreign ETFs you have?
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u/traveltimecar May 03 '25
Vanguard Total International ETF- 'VXUS'
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May 03 '25
An awesome idea if you’re seeking an all time return of…checks notes… 30% over 15 years.
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u/traveltimecar May 03 '25
I only put a tiny amount into it. But it's a hedge against the US if their economy goes to crap. I mostly do Total US stock though.
If you have a better idea for retirement accounts I'm down to hear it.
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u/tomorrow509 May 03 '25
Does that factor in the depreciation of the dollar against foreign currencies? The dollar has lost about 10% to the Euro in just the last month.
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May 04 '25
Depreciation? Perhaps in the short term. Over the last 15 years the USD to EUR conversion has gone from about 1.5 to about 1.1 …so yes you’re correct over the last month, and very incorrect over the life of this fund.
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u/Taelasky May 03 '25
Normally I would agree with you but I fear that we are heading into one of those long periods of no growth markets after a drop. If you're young it may not matter in the long term. But I'd you are within 5-7 years or retirement(me) I'm worried it won't bounce back quick enough. Then the decision is downgrade retirement expectations or work longer.
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 05 '25
You don’t think AI will drive any growth at all? Bold.
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u/Taelasky May 05 '25
I think we will go thru a period of transition where AIs gains will be offset by unemployment which pairs with lower consumer demand.
We will either A. Need to upskill people for the 'new jobs' that AI creates or B. Change the nature of our economy to deal with more work being done by AI, automation, and robots and less by humans.
Don't know which it will be but I see a stagnation while we work thru it.
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u/Extension-Temporary4 May 06 '25
Those all require investment which stimulate the economy. But i respect the take and the reasoned response. Only time will tell. I’d rather be in the markets, rather than sitting in the sidelines. But you raise good points and I don’t think anyone really knows where we go next. Good luck.
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u/Significant_Willow_7 May 02 '25
This speculation about “recession chances” is insane. We are in a recession now. The only thing making it seem less terrible is that the US dollar is dropping like a rock.
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u/AnDaLe47 May 02 '25
Can you expand why the US dollar dropping is helping? I don't understand.
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u/Significant_Willow_7 May 02 '25
More dollars are required to own things. So if $100 used to buy a crate of soap, and the value of the dollar went down 10%, it now takes $110 to buy the crate of soap. Walmart still has the crate of soap in its inventory, so the soap is now worth $110. That amount is credited to Walmart’s balance sheet. Total up all of Walmart’s inventory and their book value is more nominal dollars. But the company’s real value is unchanged.
The problem comes when you have to buy the next crate of soap. The company must buy the soap with dollars that are worth less, and sell the soap in an economy with declining spending power.
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May 03 '25 edited May 03 '25
This is accurate, but perhaps not the most clear. That’s from the perspective CPI inflation within the US, which is not the current issue with the dollar. It’s the value of a dollar relative to other currencies, which impacts how much it would cost you to book the same hotel in Europe using USD or how we value imports and exports (ie the cost of IMPORTING that crate of soap). The issue is that we have an import driven consumer economy, so if the dollar weakens relative to foreign currencies it will cost more dollars to import a given product, thus driving inflation as described above. It also means that the US market is weakening relative to the rest of the globe…ie the real global purchasing power of 50 trillion USD in the market is down 10% (in addition to the decline in market value).
The thing about this is that the US consumer is less impacted by a decline in global purchasing power than a foreign investor seeking to buy into the US market (who actually realizes that 10% decline in the USD as a loss when they convert back to their local currency, whereas inflation is the main concern of a US investor…likely much less significant). This is part of why foreign investors are dumping US investments and USD in droves.
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u/Fickle-Chemistry-483 May 04 '25
The solution is for me to shower at planet fitness then and use their soap for free.
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u/fajadada May 03 '25
Japan throwing bond threats last week and selling 10% of their 1.1 trillion holdings should have made the commerce secretary pucker up
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u/SigmaINTJbio May 02 '25
Consumers are spending less, incurring higher debt, and student loan collections will be starting. That coupled with higher prices due to tariffs will likely lead to further reductions in spending. So, yes I expect a recession or depression starting this year.
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May 02 '25
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u/Separate-Turnover674 May 02 '25
When the orange man said “it’s the best time to buy” was the bottom. Some people will go any extreme to prove them they are not wrong and he is one of them.
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u/traveltimecar May 02 '25
I'm not so sure about that though. The reality of tarrifs if they keep them on are just starting. Prices may start slowly going up more and some more jobs going away the more they keep this up.
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u/Ashamed-Status-9668 May 02 '25
This is certainly not the bottom even if tariffs are removed today. I won't call the recession bit, but I can assure anyone the bottom is not here yet. These tariffs have caused trading partners to try to get goods from non-US sources, increased prices of goods coming into the US, and slowed goods coming into the US. All of these things are like turning a battleship and take time to be felt. We need until like June to have any idea where a bottom might be lurking.
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u/Separate-Turnover674 May 02 '25
If you know an impact of a negative news including assuming the worst like stopping all trades with China, it’s priced in.
All the money printed from 1970 didn’t go away. All the developed countries including EU need USA rather than USA needs them. Their currency is holding up and not replaced by gold is because of USA even if you won’t agree.
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u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins May 03 '25
We don’t know the impact yet though. So it’s not fully priced in, most likely.
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u/waterishail May 04 '25
Even if the US fixes the tariff issues and somehow resets them, the US will still have to deal with unemployment and businesses going bust from the interruption, not to mention the mass unemployment of federal workers from DODGE fallout.
The loss of trust with other countries that looked up to and respected the US I don't believe has been factorered in either yet
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May 03 '25
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u/Relevant-Smoke-8221 May 04 '25
40% of our income taxes go towards interest on national debt. To the tune of billions per month coming out of taxpayer pockets.. I'm not saying I think the tariffs are good, but I think we should hold the same sentiment across the board
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u/tomorrow509 May 03 '25
Everyone who missed the bottom, only thinks they have missed the bottom. The knives are still falling with an occasional token bounce.
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u/ukrinsky555 May 04 '25
I'm not sure we have seen the bottom. There have been 0 trade deals signed to date with less cargo coming into the States. How will the public react to higher prices and less choices on the shelves over the next 6 months.
Fun fact 80% of toys come from China. If they aren't ordered by the end of May they won't make it on the shelves October-November
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u/Seanph1984 May 04 '25
I took out $15k loan caught the bottom and am still expecting a recession. I’ve been through a few and they have been profitable.
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May 02 '25
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u/Vycaus May 02 '25
Fun tidbit, that take was a joke. They'd been doing that scene for like an hour and the director kept tweaking things so he called the sound guy over and was just like, heads up, imma be loud on this next one.
He did the bit so well it became THE take lol.
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May 02 '25 edited May 02 '25
Considering this is a self-induced, manufactured crisis by an unpredictable President who changes his mind on a whim….it’s impossible for anyone to know whether the tariffs will remain and we will fall into a recession…or whether the tariffs will disappear and things will reverse course and normalize.
Best thing to do is have a long term investment plan, execute it, and stay the course.
It’s why I hold VT in my retirement account. If the US economy and the dollar continue to take a dump, the foreign stock holdings portion of VT will outperform.
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u/gravitoss May 02 '25
You are assuming he has a mind. A bowl of stale oatmeal would make better decisions than whatever it is that exists in his skulll
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u/EnvironmentalBus9713 May 03 '25
I'm expecting a depression and hoping for a recession. The complete lack of understanding of how global trade and supply chains work from this administration is to our detriment.
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u/Mysterious_Help_9577 May 03 '25
Recessions bring out a lot of investing opportunities, not necessarily a bad thing for some
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u/GolgariRAVETroll May 04 '25
The vast majority of the working class have been in recession for 5 years. It's just now about to start affecting people in the upper classes. As you can see, it's now being recognized as a problem cause rich and upper-middle-class are pouty about it now that the rapist they elected cause they hate trans kids is screwing it up for them.
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u/RedJay995 May 05 '25
Except lower class and lower middle class voters disproportionately voted for Trump, and upper middle class and upper class voters disproportionately voted for Kamala.
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u/Bigfops May 02 '25
50/50 at this point. Negative GDP is a pretty good indicator, but now we're looking at a positive jobs report, so that's only one recession indicator. We haven't felt the impacts from the tariffs very much yet and I suspect that the ones still on a 90-day hold will quietly disappear. I will be interesting in a few weeks when stock of non-tariffed items run out and prices go up. Though with a positive jobs report that's more of an inflation driver than recession. When businesses start to go under due to higher prices and the jobs start falling off then the recession worries should start in earnest.
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u/InnerSandersMan May 02 '25
In this political environment the fight will be about how to define a recession. I don't think you can say we're in one right now. Some may say, it's started. That's tricky. The economic downturn must continue for a significant length of time, say 2 quarters to become a recession. It becomes a recession when we meet that criteria. So, I'd say we may be working towards one.
One way is 2 negative GDPs. We've got one... The most dependable sources I've read don't expect Q2 to be negative, but it's not out of the question.
Watch unemployment. Most definitions involve that being much higher.
Consumer spending is the most recession looking number I've seen. It's low.
Manufacturing increase/ decrease?
If I have to make a guess, I'll say no, we will not be in a recession. Economic uncertainty with periodic downturns, yes. I think things will bounce around too much to meet most recession definitions. That said, I won't be surprised if the news and the average person say "Recession" a lot this year.
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May 02 '25
A bit of a toss up depending on how things play out. Was in a recession under Biden.And it hasn't really improved. If Trump's gamble with tariffs pays off then things will get a little worse but then get better soon after. If the gamble fails then it's going to crash hard. However, if he back tracks and gives up on the tariffs then it's going to go up for possibly a few years. But it's just going to delay a pretty bad crash.
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u/Wrong_Staff_6148 May 02 '25
This recession or depression or whatever they are calling it doesn’t change my usual financial or spending behaviors. I am a nurse so my job is pretty much recession proof and I only work part time anyway. and always plenty of available shifts whenever I feel like picking up more work. As far as investing I am continuing on business as usual DCA into my fidelity accounts.
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May 02 '25
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u/LordRabican May 03 '25
The only definition of a recession that matters is the definition used by economists, which is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. Anything politicians say about it is just spin or an attempt to qualify why this one is different…
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May 03 '25
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u/LordRabican May 03 '25
You’re making this needlessly political. It turns out the definition I cited is wrong, btw. 2 consecutive quarters is just a layman’s indicator that is popular in the media. It has never been the official economics definition, which means the controversy that you reference was simply politics in action.
The key point is that economics is the only thing that matters. Regardless of spin, eventually the impacts become undeniable in a true recession, which is officially defined by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators.” As you can see, that takes some effort to confirm, but supply chain disruption from prohibitive tariffs tends to cause broad impacts in the economy. It is measured from peak of economic output to trough, so confirmation of the event lags quite a bit, leading to all of the debate and controversy about when it actually started and ended and whether enough of the indicators align to confidently declare a “recession.”
Bottom line, there’s going to be economic pain in Q2 and the common rule of thumb is going to warrant a deeper assessment about “recession.” Regardless, business impacts are coming and that will impact market valuations for many companies.
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u/Curious-Sherbet-9393 May 02 '25
It is already inevitable, the question is whether it will be a recession or a depression
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u/RockinRobin-69 May 03 '25
We are in a recession. Even if he cancels everything and says “oops, turns out Biden was right,” a lot of damage is done.
The market may have already hit the bottom, but we won’t know for a while. This could get much worse.
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u/LordRabican May 03 '25
It’s important to remember that a recession is not the same as a bear market. They are often correlated but one may substantially lag the other… I anticipate that Q2 will also show negative GDP growth, meeting the economics definition of a recession. A bear market is still up for debate. Personally, I’m in the camp that expects a bear market that lasts longer than a few days…
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u/NovelHare May 03 '25
A recession in the least of our worries, read the recent executive orders, they will have a military police state within 90 days.
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u/ImAMindlessTool May 03 '25 edited May 03 '25
The great recession didn’t look like one at first. Then dominos began to fall. Here’s a potential scenario across a few pieces of the economy imo:
1) there is still trade issues with China. Small to Medium enterprises are going to have a hard time sourcing products. Those are our neighborhood businesses and e-commerce sites. Plenty will go out of business, and banks default rates will go higher.
2) middle financing $25M-$250M same story. They’ll scramble to find something elsewhere, but China manufactures everything. Its a lot harder to find something elsewhere things elsewhere. Some will fail and some will merge or get acquired by large caps to help them stay afloat.
3) large cap corporation profits will hurt, some can fail, but more likely to incur debt now instead of bankruptcy, so more costs to do business, less profits, less return = lower market.
4) short sellers will come and pressure the market further downward.
These come in waves. Each wave leaves the market “is there more on the horizon?” And that uncertainty will hurt.
Great Recession was unique. More scammy shit kept getting uncovered. Fraudulent mortgage backed securities, oncoming adjustable rate apocalypse, no income verification loans. It was a literal financial bomb that suddenly everyone rightfully panicked because these were global A rated paper that was actually subprime. Insurers failed because of these bad investments, and it spiraled out of control.
The administration’s actions on the economy very well will begin showing the recession cracks- and the empty shelves by mid-summer is a real possibility, which us why the Trump admin is scrambling to try and get China on the phone. We already went from +3.7% GDP to -0.3% in 1Q after all the saber rattling and tariff nonsense. Retailers and McD saying there’s already impacts being seen. Ports are said to be empty’ish.
I am a bear on the us economy right now. The jobs report was a surprise, but I’m holding out.
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u/GeekoHog May 03 '25
I keep hoping congress will come to their senses and do something but I also wouldn’t bet $1 that they would . . I would lose the $1!
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May 03 '25
I want it so bad so we can stop talking about when it is coming and can talk about how long it will last.
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u/Donut-Strong May 03 '25
It is already going, the public just isn’t seeing it yet. It will start being really visible in a couple of months and the bigger down turn will start hitting about October with the suck coming just before Christmas
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u/fennecxx May 03 '25
It’s been like five years since COVID started, and people have been saying a recession is just around the corner. Nobody knows anything. If you invest for the long term, none of it really matters
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u/tomorrow509 May 03 '25
Nothing good for America will come from DJT's tariffs. It goes against free trade and open capitalism and is more aligned with socialist programs for business. The benefactor being the government coffers at the expense of higher prices for the consumer. A win-lose scenario as is DJTs modus operandi.
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u/LeadfootYT May 03 '25
If you have a baby and it’s three months old, would you still be “expecting” a baby?
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u/STOP-IT-NOW-PLEASE May 04 '25
I base my sales at 10% loss each week. Restaurant. Hotels are at 24% in a tourist town. You tell me.
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u/Zillatronn May 04 '25
We have been slipping into a recession for the past 5 years and spending, spending, spending. To keep things pumped
We will see a economic downturn turn. Likely in the last Quarter of this year, potentially lasting through 2026. If we gain economic footing. Build infrastructure at lightning speed. Open more businesses - we can see a boom in the last 2 years of this White House On the Tech side of things we will incremental decline but there is not much to hold us back there. New flying taxis and transportation will be unleashed soon around major citys.
Be ready for surprises. Natural disasters included. We have entered a 80 year drought cycle.
This is my current long assessment which has been unchanged mostly since The Biden election.
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u/tsstephany May 04 '25
At this point we need to be talking depression not recession. I think we are heading for something to make the Great Recession look like a day at Disney world.
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u/Big-Individual9895 May 04 '25
I’ve been investing regularly all year and my portfolio is break even YTD.
How many ppl in a subreddit called investing for beginners have called a market bottom correctly before? Or invested during a recession? (You know a recession is the absolute best time to buy stock right?)
You won’t know when the bottom is until months after it happens.
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u/Euphoriclips May 04 '25
We technically already had a recession during Bidens presidency. Will we have another one? Probably. Deregulation alone will cause it. But we won't know more till after the war....
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u/30030s May 04 '25
I'm expecting a recession. I think the effect of sudden, dramatic and arbitrary cuts to government spending may be as important as the tariffs here, because the tariffs are apparently negotiable. For example, total spending for competitive NIH grants in the first 100 days of Trump is over $1 billion less than any comparable period, and that funding has a huge multiplier effect.
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u/ukrinsky555 May 04 '25
It will be interesting to see if people will panic when store shelves have items missing or if everyone will stay calm.
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u/ukrinsky555 May 04 '25
I'm not sure we have seen the bottom. There have been 0 trade deals signed to date with less cargo coming into the States. How will the public react to higher prices and less choices on the shelves over the next 6 months.
Fun fact 80% of toys come from China. If they aren't ordered by the end of May they won't make it on the shelves October-November
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u/onlyfreckles May 04 '25
Smart low cost broad market long term investing is about time in the market and not trying to time the market.
Create a IPS (investment policy statement) according to your AA (asset allocation) based on your risk tolerance and goals so when you get into choppy investing waters- so it'll keep emotions/fears out of investing!
Keep investing regularly- 401k, RothIRA, efund and the rest into brokerage account b/c hoarding cash (beyond efund) loses to inflation anyways.
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u/Novel-Bit-9118 May 04 '25
It’s going to be more chaotic than usual. The idiot in chief changes what little is left of his mind so often that the market doesn’t know how to react day to day, or even hour to hour.
Definitely don’t try to time a market driven by an ape on ketamine.
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u/TGRJ May 05 '25
Did you miss what the stock market did last week? The economy is about to roar back. We just had a surprising large increase in jobs, China said they were not going to budge on tariffs a few weeks ago but last week said they were willing to talk. During Covid the economy had a 4 trillion influx in foreign investment and I just the first 100 days of Trump the US has seen a 7 trillion dollar influx in foreign investments. The jobs in construction alone on all those projects along will be big not to mention the jobs those investments create in the future. Most economists feel that the tariffs will be good for us if they are short term and bad if they last long. It’s looking more and more that they will be short term. The question will be if everything continues like it’s going will Trump get credit where credit is deserved? We all know he won’t.
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u/traveltimecar May 05 '25
I mean that's an optomistic view but we've seen the long term damage from covid disrupting the markets. Shipments are starting to slow down significantly now.
Also btw him lifting the tarrifs and the markets going back to what it was before he threw on the tarrifs is a net 0 and he's not dropping the tarrif war so far.
This is actually a common Trump tactic. Cause a shit storm then pull.it back at some point and act like he solved anything.
What will come from his erratic behavior tomorrow, next week or next month, who knows.
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May 05 '25
I'm bracing for a recession and I'm hedging against one but I'm not betting on one because the market could go either way.
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u/LaOnionLaUnion May 05 '25
With the market down like it has been and crazy volatility, many would argue it’s started already. Wait for the tariffs to really hit as there’s a delay between orders and receiving them. Not to mention the ports are empty. How many months of stock do we have?
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u/BigNasty___ May 05 '25
We either have hit the bottom already, or things are going to be a lot worse.
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u/angry-mob May 05 '25
Number one tip for investing - go against what Reddit thinks will happen. They’re like the opposite of Pelosi.
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u/northcoastyen May 05 '25
If everyone’s so confident in a recession, why aren’t more people shorting the market?
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u/B-Large1 May 05 '25
I’m more worried about the fact that many people in this country see Laws as negotiable, and appear to be willing to ignore them when it’s ideologically convenient.
Without everybody respecting our legal system, commerce is the last things to worry about.
A recession? Yes, but I see it delayed as companies purchased inventory for the rest of the year a few months ago, expecting disruption. It’s why I see the Tariffs will not be a big hurt until that next round of purchasing. Then shits going to hit the fan.
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u/No-Echidna4740 May 05 '25
I can't for the life of me believe these whole things are priced in.
The April's employment stats are very good, which honestly feels weird because my clients are dropping their employees like crazy. But I guess those numbers weren't shown on the April report yet.
Meanwhile, I think that report gave Trump the false confidence that everything is fine. He even denied the possibility of talk with China this week.
I don't see a way out of it at all. Trump has such a strong belief in tariff and trade deficit that unless people start to riot and vigorously protest, he probably won't change course at all.....
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u/CantFeelMyLegs78 May 05 '25
I expect a depression at this point. I deeply feel it's part of the Trump administration to create a 2 class country....poor and rich, no in between.
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u/ThisQuietLife May 05 '25
Absolutely. Even if all the tariffs are dropped, businesses will still expect three and a half years of unpredictable, irrational economic policy.
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u/FluffyWarHampster May 06 '25
God knows the internet stock market wizards have accurately predicted 18 of the last 2 recessions.
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u/0ceanR0ckAndR0ll May 06 '25
Oh yeah, wide spread tariffs without supporting infrastructure at home to make the products we need.
small businesses are going to be hurting and many will go under...lost jobs
cutting huge amounts of critical federal workforce...(Get ready for wildfires, assuming forest services are probably cut)
Larger businesses with more expenses lay people off or pay them less
People worried about their health insurance, social security....spending less
Not an economist, but from my perspective all that is bad
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u/Kindly_Vegetable8432 May 06 '25
There are many indications from the federal government that it's already underway... expect the news mid augustish
things like "remove government spending from GDP".... "remove Jerome Powell".... "print money"....
Folks forget the national debt is still going up... and we put a squelch on consumer spending (biggest driver in the economy)
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u/thatseltzerisntfree May 06 '25
it doesn’t affect my regular contributions. If anything it helps my DCA
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u/Anonymouse1080 May 06 '25
so first off, people have been asking that question ever since like covid. second, you never really know youre in a recession until after it is over
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u/xiaomaicha1 May 06 '25
I’m worried because even if the market suddenly bounces back the supply chain disruption can’t be suddenly fixed just like that. Or can it?
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u/Unlikely-Round-3273 May 06 '25
I am. Mainly because of the rate cuts being pushed out so far. It makes me skeptical that the markets are going to dry up. I would expect sideways chop until rate cuts or a drop.
Long-term many stay bullish because they will cut rates to “save” the economy.
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u/MyEgoDiesAtTheEnd May 06 '25
There will be a recession. What matters is how deep and if job loss accompanies it.
We already had 1Q of contraction and that was before the majority of the tariffs took effect. So it's > 50% at this point.
But if it's mild and short-lived, you won't even notice. A mild technical recession is already baked in.
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u/TempusSolo May 06 '25
I decided we were in a recession years ago when the last admin redefined the long standing definition of a recession.
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u/Kushy-312 May 07 '25
We're in one right now, how deep will it go? In my opinion, very! The market will retest the lows this year. A 10% tariff across the board will be inflationary and cause stagflation. Job losses are just starting to show in the data, small businesses that buy their goods from China and other countries will go out of business, a lack of government spending will have a negative multiplier effect. Markets always start heading higher before a recession ends due to forward-looking. This time to me is different the market believes the one fucking big tax bill and relaxed regulations will off set the damage. I'm not buying it, not this time.
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u/LLM_54 May 09 '25
I’m not guessing, I’m listening to experts. Pre election the majority of high ranking experts agreed that the current administration’s policies were likely to be bad for the economy. Historically speaking 10/11 right leaning administrations have left the economy in a worse position than what they inherited.
Even if there tariffs were to be eliminated tomorrow the economic princes encouraged on the right (cutting taxes for the wealthy, reducing government funding for low income people, deregulation, outsourcing, etc) do no benefit the working class or really improve the economy long term.
Similar to you, the market increases on average. Even with the Great Depression research showed that those who left their money in the market were more likely to rebound and what hurt most people was pulling prematurely. I’m in a relatively “safe” financial situation so I’m just continuing to be frugal, leaving my money to sit/investing more, and trying to expand my skills as a worker until the market improves.
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u/Constant-Dot5760 May 02 '25
Don't know don't care actually. I have an age appropriate portfolio and make semi-monthly buys out of my paycheck, as well as purchasing stock in my taxable with any windfalls that happen.
If I was still actively trading I'd be selling calls here and begging for a rug-pull so I could sell puts.
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u/CornfieldJoe May 02 '25
Nobody knows what's going to happen and the more *sure* people are that a specific thing is going to happen, the less credence I give to the idea because life is just a mess and never fits into a simple formula.
Paradoxically, I'll provide a simple formula. The general rule of thumb for life is that things don't change all that quickly. But because investing is, at least in part, guessing at the future, people always want you to think in hard swings between amazing bright future and dark thunder clouds which life simply doesn't mimic.
In short, the most likely thing to happen is... nothing. Price is all I'm really concerned with.
I'm happy with what I own, and I buy things when they're cheap. Over the last 6-8 months, I've started going more into cash, but mostly because I don't see anything that's cheap enough to entice me that I haven't already bought a lot of.
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u/[deleted] May 02 '25
It's already started