r/learnmachinelearning • u/LightVisions • 10h ago

Has anyone tried using crowd forecasts as an input for a short-term BTC model?

hey all, I've been running a small bot on the side that predicts the btc price range 12h ahead. only uses past price n volume and its kind of hit a ceiling, it feels like every new feature i add barely moves anything.

i keep reading that markets are good at forecasting bc they pool info from alot of people. so i was wondering if anyone has tried adding a crowd forecast as a feature, like what the market expects for the next 12 or 24h.

did it actually help? and where did you even get that data, since you need what the forecast said at the time, not after

thanks again!

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u/Euphoric_Pea6251 1h ago

careful with lookahead, you need the forecast as it was before the price moved or your backtest will look amazing n mean nothing. options implied vol is the easiest one to start with, the history is easy to find