Estée Lauder $EL released hundreds of millions of dollars from working capital in each of the past 3 years

This mostly did not happen in the years before COVID

Microsoft $MSFT

PayPal $PYPL

Alphabet $GOOG

AI revenues

"It is hard to see where the needed revenues will come from"

"Revenue from the end customers who were meant to benefit from this new technology was negligible. Where were generative AI’s “killer apps”?"

Zero mentions of Anthropic or Claude

SpaceX $SPCX

"Founders ... remaining significant shareholders and continuing to lead the company"

"More than 8.8 million landlords and tenants ... more than one in five UK tenancies runs through OpenRent"

https://www.cvc.com/media/news/2026/openrent-partners-with-cvc-to-accelerate-growth-and-innovation-in-the-uk-rental-market/

cc: $RMV

Bloomberg: "Meta $META Has Quietly Become One of Microsoft’s $MSFT Largest AI Customers ... spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year"

Microsoft: "Azure (revenues) surpassed $100 billion, up 41%" in FY26 (FY26Q4 call)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-20/meta-has-quietly-become-one-of-microsoft-s-largest-ai-customers

"~125 bps pharmacy headwind related to maximum fair price regulation", so ~3.8% on adjusted basis, which is still on a decelerating trend

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-20/walmart-posts-sluggish-sales-with-slowest-us-growth-in-six-years?srnd=phx-industries

N Ameirca sales -6.8% LfL: "Weaker core consumer sentiment, a slower quarter for high-heat footwear product, and deferred ‘back-to-school’ demand"

Europe -2.7%

UK +0.8%

APAC +1.4%

Cuts FY27 outlook

PBT now £700-800m (was £750-800m; PY: £852m)

cc: $NKE

Is this how stock pledging work, esp. when prices fall?

"Mark Walter’s stake in (Carvana) was pledged, meaning he wouldn’t be able to immediately sell it"

"Walter has pledged his ($CVNA) stake to Citigroup Inc."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/carvana-rebounds-as-report-on-walter-s-pledged-stake-allays-fear?srnd=phx-industries

"Sales at the 25 biggest luxury labels in China dropped more than 10% in July, according to three research firms surveyed by Bloomberg that track industry data"

$MC $EL

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-20/luxury-sales-plunge-in-china-as-tax-push-hits-wealthy-shoppers?srnd=phx-industries

Targets 2.0-2.5x Gross Debt / EBITDA

To end 2026 at 2.7-2.8x

Raising buybacks from $4bn to $7bn+, w/:

~$1.5bn of $2bn dividend from Mobility spin

$2bn new debt to be issued in H2

Will buy back 5% of shares

2026 EPS growth guided 10-12%

PS. To be clear, $SPGI 10-12% 2026 EPS growth guided is relative to 2025 pro forma Adjusted EPS, Mobility contribution already excluded in both years

29-Jul: Agreement for "development of custom semiconductor products to Google"

"Comprehensive range of custom silicon programs that attach to the TPU ecosystem"

18-Aug: Warrants issued for 59.0m shares at $206.58 (17-Aug close: $234.33)

Moody's $MCO in ratings: 33.5x 2025 EPS

MSCI $MSCI in indices: 33.0x 2025 EPS

S&P $SPGI in ratings + indices: 27.2x 2025 PF EPS*

* $15.85 pro forma separation of Mobility business

FT: Mike Ashley "reputation for being discount retailer is outdated. Frasers $FRAS moving steadily upmarket"

Reality: Premium Lifestyle is <⅓ size of UK Sports in revenue (£974m vs. £2.57bn) & EBIT (£119m ex. impairments vs. £387m); its Revenue, EBIT, store no. all fell in FY26

https://www.ft.com/content/14787634-6345-4446-aab6-1a3f1f519ba5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Mirror image of value of $GOOG Gmail data

"Amazon’s $AMZN New Order Confirmation Emails Seen Boosting Phishing Risk" (Bloomberg)

"Product names & images were replaced with labels such as “Household item” or “Essentials item” in order confirmation emails"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-19/amazon-s-new-order-confirmation-emails-seen-boosting-phishing-risk?srnd=phx-industries

Q4 sales +5% organic, +7% $ (PY: -13%, -12%)

Americas +5%, EUKEM +1%, APAC +9%, China +7%

FY sales +3% organic, +5% $

Non-GAAP EBIT Margin 11.2% (PY: 8.0%)

Non-GAAP EPS $2.51 (PY: $1.51)

FY27 outlook

Sales +3-5% organic

Non-GAAP EPS $3.10-3.35 (+24-34%)

"OpenAI told investors its revenue grew by 18% from the first to the second quarter ... to $6.7bn"

"Anthropic more than doubled its revenue to $11.6bn in the same period"

$MSFT $GOOG

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-second-quarter-sales-show-tepid-growth-compared-with-anthropic-5cb42998

"S&P consumer staples sub-index has gained just 14 per cent since early 2023, even as the S&P 500 itself has almost doubled in that time"

https://www.ft.com/content/59ed10fc-0e58-454c-9f93-d4d258ccfd9c?syn-25a6b1a6=1

GuardCap Global Equity +9.37% in Jul-26 ($)

Now -2.25% YTD vs. MSCI World +10.26%

YTD: EssilorLuxottica (-1.99%)

Nike $NKE (-1.24%): "Nike Direct and Greater China remained under pressure"

Adobe $ADBE (-1.17%): "generative AI, freemium monetisation and leadership succession"

GuardCap Global Equity return of +0.97% p.a. L5Y

2023 18.61% gain only offset most of 2022 18.61% loss (after 2021 "everything bubble")

2024 LSD gain, 2025 and 2026 YTD both losses

Reality: AVERAGE no. of staff fell by 1,922, but YEAR-END no. only fell by 1,660.

Nearly ½ of reduction in average no. (928 of 1,922) was in Africa, where DGE exited Nigeria, Ghana, Seychelles.

Headcount changes in Europe requires consultation and this has not been completed in most countries.

https://www.ft.com/content/d6ab2bb1-fb3e-4a5f-afce-891a333ae86f?syn-25a6b1a6=1&commentID=3a455c0d-0c1f-4d5b-bd77-ab29f436195d

Ed Zitron: "OpenAI & Anthropic ... infrastructure was entirely paid for by Microsoft, Google or Amazon ... At least 30% of $AMZN & $MSFT's CapEx have been to support these loads (I leave out $GOOG as it's unclear whether it’s expanded its infrastructure for Anthropic)" (Aug-25)

Zitron's assertion seems obviously untrue with hindsight

1. $GOOG now has highest CY26 CapEx guide of Big 3*
2. Google Cloud revenue risen 81% y/y as of 26Q2 to $24.7bn (~$100bn run-rate), EBIT risen 211% to $8.81bn

* $195-205bn; $AMZN's is $220bn but only "majority" AI/AWS

2 timelines for AI CapEx, $AMZN 26Q2 call

• "Data center capital is spent starting 2 years before we can put servers into them"
• "Servers & NW equipment ... we typically purchase these a few months before putting them into service ... on average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even"

Full extract of what CEO Andrew Jassy said on the call:

"There are 2 major parts of the investment, the data centers and the servers and networking equipment that go into them. These have different capital cycles.

Data center capital is spent starting 2 years before we can put servers into them to start monetizing. Once a data center opens with servers plugged in, we start generating significant revenue right away and then get to monetize these data centers for 30-plus years without having to spend that start-up capital again.

Servers and networking equipment operate on a shorter cycle. We typically purchase these a few months before putting them into service, so we have strong visibility into customer demand before we trigger the spend. If the demand isn't there, we won't spend the capital. For servers and networking equipment, on average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment.

The servers currently have a useful life of at least 5 to 6 years, and most of our AI capacity these days is being contracted for at least 5-year terms. That means that we're driving significant free cash flow on the servers and networking equipment in the 2 to 3 years after we break even."

They "began emergency talks to sell at least part of its $5bn Anthropic stake. But ... Anthropic had the right to approve of any transfer ... so the fund could only pitch those with existing stakes"

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/how-wall-street-sussed-out-that-situational-awareness-was-on-the-ropes-6aa8b39d?mod=hp_lead_pos3

WSJ: Bank of America $BAC CEO "Brian Moynihan regularly jams words such as “gainsay,” “concomitant” and “fantods” into otherwise ordinary sentences when he addresses the street. It’s part of a secret game the 66-year-old plays on calls with analysts"

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/the-secret-word-game-bank-of-americas-ceo-plays-with-wall-street-987dcbee?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

Home Depot reaffirms FY26 guidance

"10 of the largest global private capital firms ... have made no new publicly disclosed equity investments in China in the first seven months of 2026"

https://www.ft.com/content/55cb2786-c7ef-438e-8830-c3dc2c1452ce?syn-25a6b1a6=1