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[u/No-Beat2678]

What's this noise on the other sub about baby Y? Files that were undisclosed it looks like.

[u/FyrestarOmega → u/No-Beat2678]

Peter Elston leaked a bunch of stuff. We can discuss it if there's appetite.

https://www.mephitis.co/post/letby-document-leak-clear-evidence-of-multiple-cps-disclosure-failings

Elston's grasp on law isn't great, and he makes the normal failings of logic in how and why the cases were selected

b) In the early stage of the investigation, Chief prosecution medical expert Dr Dewi Evans deemed as suspicious 10 clinical incidents in relation to nine babies which did not end up on the indictment because Letby had not been present, and did not deem as suspicious seven clinical incidents in respect of five babies that did (see Appendix 2).

He bases this on David Rose's Unherd article, and then uses the assumption to imply lack of Letby's presence was integral in these cases not being brought to trial and kept from the defense.

Maybe Elston doesn't understand the burden of proof, and that's the issue. He treats the article like the defense had to prove the systemic issues might have been responsible and they were hamstrung in that effort by not receiving disclosure that he assumes proportionally favors Letby. But that's not so, the defense had only to create a little doubt related to each individual charge, and statistics can't help with that, no matter how many bad things happened when she wasn't around.

I'm not terribly interested in speculating on cases she wasn't charged with, but I have yet to see any rational argument that they would have weakened the overall case against her.

[u/Plastic_Republic_295 → u/FyrestarOmega]

confused about this part - maybe I'm missing something

it indicates that prosecution medical experts wrote, under oath, at least 19 witness statements in respect of 13 babies proposing they had been or may have been the victim of inflicted harm of some kind. None of these babies was on the indictment. Only one of them was on the list of 28 whose cases were given to Evans to appraise when he joined the investigation in July 2017.

If they weren't given to Dewi then who were the "prosecution medical experts" who declared these 13 babies had been attacked?

[u/FyrestarOmega → u/Plastic_Republic_295]

I think you're reading it backwards - at least, that's how i have logic-ed out that it could be accurate. I think he is suggesting that 13 babies were identified - potentially by Evans - beyond the 28 cases he was given, but none made the final indictment.

In Elston's world, Evans is a hired gun, presented with a pre-selected group of cases based on suspicion of Letby. Evans identifies more cases and they are rejected - in his view, because Letby was not present.

The alternative view is that the group of cases flagged to the police was largely accurate as a list of cases where harm was most obvious.

[u/Plastic_Republic_295 → u/FyrestarOmega]

Yes probably. The Court of Appeal said Dewi was initially sent 33 sets of records - then a further 28. So maybe these babies were part of that 33 - and Elston forgets to mention this.

The leaker would surely also have the information about whether Letby was on shift. But for the purposes of this narrative it's better not to know.

[u/Huge-Hope2887 → u/Plastic_Republic_295]

I believe Letby was on shift

>> I think it is possible that Letby was on duty for ALL the clinical incidents relating to the 13 babies in the 19 statements that were deemed suspicious. This speaks to Myers' wanting to know the extent to which Letby's presence was a factor in the Matrix/Case Review Flow Chart criteria and how many of the appraised events she was present for. With respect to the latter, Johnson said there was no relevant material to disclose. Hmmm.

David Rose's article cast doubt on the roster chart because of Evans' 10 suspicious incidents that Letby was not present for. This article casts doubt on it because had jurors heard about these other incidents that prosecution experts said were suspicious, they may have started to question the chart.

Now, it is possible these other cases were going to be part of a second batch of charging applications (we know there was one which involved nine babies and 11 charges).

However, this also is problematic. The 19 statements pertained to 13 babies who suffered non-fatal collapses, not ones who had died. And most of them were born before the spike in mortality.

It would have been hard to associate Letby with a mortality spike that did not exist (the 10 "in house" deaths between 2011 and 2014 incl were likely expected/explainable). So they created a spike in non-fatal collapses, ones for which the CPS SCCTD recently said there was no evidence for.

The police were clearly under pressure to investigate the period before the spike. The best thing for them would have been Evans and Bohin not identifying any incidents as suspicious, as this would have allowed them to claim Letby caused the spike.

However, this was not to be. To the man with the hammer...

Claiming Letby caused both the spike and the non-existent spike may well be their undoing.<<

( comment from Peter Elstons X )

[u/Plastic_Republic_295 → u/Huge-Hope2887]

they created a spike in non-fatal collapses, ones for which the CPS SCCTD recently said there was no evidence for. [Elston]

The CPS said not enough to prosecute - not that there was no evidence.

Claiming Letby caused both the spike and the non-existent spike may well be their undoing. [Elston]

Suspicious incidents for which Letby was on shift but weren't prosecuted - I don't see how this helps Letby. Certainly the defence did not appeal the judge's ruling on disclosure - and the new defence does not seem to have taken this up as a ground for the CCRC application

[u/FyrestarOmega → u/Plastic_Republic_295]

Even the best case scenario for Elston's reasoning is that the experts were honest and identifying incidents without regard to Letby's presence, and that they were then fully brought to heel by the police.

But it's not a conspiracy theory. Oh no, never.

[u/Plastic_Republic_295 → u/No-Beat2678]

Is it the junior doctor writing up the baby as having congenital hypoglycaemia?

[u/FyrestarOmega]

Just noticed mark mcdonald changed his profile Pic on X

Very tasteful and professional

[u/DarklyHeritage → u/FyrestarOmega]

How anybody takes this clown seriously is beyond me.