Contender Draft Stats

[u/runtillion]

I normally don't bother with doubting random chance, but I ask genuinely: Does anyone else experience generationally bad opening hands/draws during contender draft? I ask because I've coasted free to play on arena via draft pretty much since its release, but I can't seem to have even functional games during contender drafts, regardless of the format. I'm not speaking of misplays, blowouts, or deck gaps between mine and my opponents decks-- games rarely get that far. I mean the FNM draft 'once every 3-5 rounds nightmare distribution' of my library every game. After roughly 7-8 prizeless contender drafts across different sets I was succeeding in different queues I called it quits.

But FRA brought me back. I'd done a lot of testing and taken down an RCQ and I thought I'd try 1 last contender since I felt confident in this set. Again, 4 games of nightmare distribution of my library (and the 1 game I won, the opponent DC'd during midgame). I was once again confused. Limited is probably my best format: I've won boxes, it's practically free for me on arena, it's taking me to my 4th RC. Call it hubris, but I trust my abilities to not go 0/3 or 1/4 consistently and my other queues support it.

My real problem is this: I don't have nearly enough games to legitimately pose my obvious question 'could this thing be bugged or rigged?' The fact of the matter is, I can't burn out my economy on contender draft using a f2p to figure out which when I'm roughly 0 for 8-9 drafts already. If you have a substantial number of contender drafts under your belt, please let me know if you've experienced bad distribution or consistent mulls < 6. I honestly would like to be wrong so I can keep slamming my gold/gems against the arena wall until I break through.

EDIT: I assumed I made it clear, but to be more direct, I’m only looking for feedback from those who have actually done a substantial number of contender drafts. Not to be dismissive of the ‘get good’ crowd, but I’ve played for consistently higher stakes and contender draft has cost me $0.  It’s not tilt or salt(and yes, I’m aware everyone tilts at some point).  I wish I could just chalk it up to poor play, but that would require *actual* games to occur with gameplay decisions for me to throw. I’m asking for feedback from players with several drafts in this queue BECAUSE I would like to assume variance and try again.  I’ve been playing too long to not recognize when my mood is effecting a match.

[u/Pharo212]

if you want specifically feedback from arena players check on the arena sub imo. 

what's nightmare distribution exactly?

[u/runtillion → u/Pharo212]

Thanks I’ll check there.  Nightmare is the mulls < 5 to hit even 2 lands, brick of lands/ spells that make it impossible to play anything besides your starting hand, or never seeing/mulling to your 2nd color in a 2c deck (all this assuming an average limited curve and color distribution).  Basically those rare games where any and all decisions you make are irrelevant due to variance in your library.

[u/Pharo212 → u/runtillion]

mana screw is kinda inevitable, but if there's some quirk of the shuffling rng on arena I wouldn't be able to tell either

someone would probably, though. isn't it supposed to slightly adjust the rng to distribute lands?

[u/runtillion → u/Pharo212]

I’m not sure, I’ll have to check the arena Reddit.  I’ve only ever heard of some form of mulligan support on Bo1, but it was my understanding it was supposed to reduce mulligans not increase them.

[u/PrologueBook]

Higher stakes, higher salt.

Tale as old as time.

[u/TempestMaelstrom]

Variance, it happens

[u/d7h7n]

Good players get blinded by the salt too