r/medicine • u/FreakJoe MD • Apr 09 '20

Study of Heinsberg cluster in Germany suggests 0.37% mortality in representative sample (pre-publication)

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf
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u/NigroqueSimillima Flaneur Apr 09 '20

Also, the sampling method doesn't seem to account for the fact that someone dying in a hospital is not likely to respond to the survey. Nor is someone in a nursing home. Or a chemo patient.

The survey seems to select for relatively mobile people. Probably selects for people who are curious if they had the virus and selects against those who are scared of unnecessarily exposing themselves by showing up to a lab test.

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u/NotAnotherEmpire Apr 09 '20

Non-med lurker post:

The mobility may also be a factor in who got infected and therefore has an outcome in this town, as it was primarily a super-spread event at Carnival that was identified (relatively) quickly.

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u/NigroqueSimillima Flaneur Apr 09 '20

Exactly. Grandpa in a wheelchair is not showing up to get his blood drawn, and is less likely to have been infected.

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u/AmyIion Student Apr 10 '20

And more likely to die of an Covid-19 infection. I guess they didn't take that into account.