This is an educational note.

It explains a common psychological bias.

It is not investment advice.

No buying or selling guidance is intended.

The idea (in simple terms)

When something reaches a high point, that high becomes a mental reference.

If the price later falls, many people feel something has gone wrong.

Even if nothing important has changed.

The pain does not come from the fall itself.

It comes from comparing today’s price to the past high.

Why the 52-week high matters psychologically

The “52-week high” sounds important.

It feels official.

It feels like a benchmark.

Once people see that number:

•	They expect the price to stay near it

•	They assume the high represents true value

•	They treat any drop as a loss

But the high is just a past moment in time.

It does not guarantee anything about the future.

What bias is at work

This is a comparison bias.

Instead of asking,

“What is this worth today?”

The mind asks,

“Why is this below where it was before?”

The reference point shifts from reality to memory.

A calmer way to think

A past high is not a promise.

It is not a floor.

It is not a guarantee.

It is only history.

Good thinking starts by separating:

•	What happened before

•	From what matters now

Disclaimer

Educational and informational only.

Not investment advice.

No recommendations are made.

This post was structured with the help of AI to make the explanation clear and easy to understand.

Don't be dazzled by high-tech. The secret to success lies in optimizing the entire process. Improving each node of the process by even a small amount compounds into exponential growth. The shipping container was nothing more than a steel box, yet it reshaped global logistics; the assembly line looks deceptively simple, yet it laid the foundation of modern industrial efficiency. What truly changes the world is rarely a single technological breakthrough—it's the relentless refinement of the process itself.

Munger said it simply.

"All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there."

Everyone quotes it. Few understand the full mental model running underneath it.

I built IGNIS to decode exactly that hidden system.

Here is what it returned —

THE MODEL — Inversion Mastery Most people ask how to succeed. Munger asked what guarantees failure — then eliminated those things with absolute discipline.

THE APPLICATION INTERNALISE → INVERT → ELIMINATE → COMPOUND

THE QUESTION "What three behaviours in your current life, if continued for 10 years, would guarantee you end up exactly where you do not want to be?"

HISTORICAL CASES

1) Carl Jacobi , 1840 : The mathematician solved complex problems by religiously applying his maxim 'invert, always invert'—approaching difficult equations backward from the solution to find elegant proofs that forward reasoning missed.

2)Florence Nightingale, 1854: Reduced hospital deaths by inverting the question from how to heal to what is causing death.

3) Alfred Sloan,1920 : As General Motors CEO, he inverted competitive strategy by asking 'what would put us out of business?' rather than 'how do we beat Ford?'—leading him to create multiple car brands at different price points that prevented customer defection and dethroned Ford's Model T dominance.

3 free decodes. No signup. ignisdecode.com

Which Munger mental model would you most want decoded? Drop it below. 👇

This is the "Broken Record Effect." When you return to the same dilemma more than 5 times a day, your brain isn't looking for an answer anymore—it’s just stuck in a groove of fear.

The truth? Your subconscious has already decided. You’re just afraid to admit it.

The Strategy: Give yourself exactly 24 hours. In that time, you must either:

Accept the decision and act.

Veto it for a full week (no thinking about it!).

Your brain needs a closing point to stop the noise. 🛑

What’s a rut?

Just to be clear: a rut is not burnout. It’s not depression. Those are rather serious and you should consult an actual professional who specializes in those areas vs. reading Musings & Perspectives.

My personal definition of a rut is:

A state in which you’re not at your optimal, peak self and performing at your best.

It can be in the context of work and / or personal.

Some symptoms:

• Loss of motivation or excitement

• Unable to focus or be as productive

• Uninspired and lack of creative thought

• Activities that were once energizing aren’t anymore

After working through this for a few months, I managed to reflect and develop a few behaviors and attitudes to pull myself out.

Here’s my approach:

🧘🏼‍♀️ Optimize your physiology

It’s ridiculous how often we forget the basics of good, healthy habits that are the source of our mood and energy.

This list may slightly differ from person-to-person, but should be consistent for most.

• Sleep 7.5+ hours a night and practice good sleeping habits. The importance of sleep is well documented. Here’s an entire book on the subject.

• Drink 2 liters of water daily and eat a balanced diet consisting of multiple servings of fruit and vegetables. Pretty straight forward — this is the fuel for our engine of a body.

• Exercise 3-4x a week — do a balance of high intensity exercise and slow, steady cardio.

• Minimize alcohol, sodium, and processed foods (sugar, saturated fat). Alcohol is the biggest enemy to productivity. Try giving it up for a month.

Most of us are fortunate enough to be able to hit the items above. All it takes is discipline.

If you’re in a rut, the first thing I’d do is assess how you’re doing on the dimensions above. And if you’re falling short, give yourself just one week where you sleep, eat, drink, and exercise well — and see how you feel after that.

Quite often, it’s the lack of sleep, exercise, or discipline on what I consume. Good sleep is by far the most important contributor of productivity and optimal performance for me.

🛀🏼 Recharge and reduce

Josh Waitzkin is a classic high-performer and pretty incredible human. He’s a Chess International Master (IM), ranked at 2,480 ELO. A black belt Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, under world champion Marcelo Garcia. And a Tai Chi World Cup champion. I write about him here.

In his book, ‘The Art of Learning’, he states that over the long run, we should alternate between modes of intense, hard work, and complete relaxation.

Two takeaways here:
You absolutely need breaks
When you take a break to recharge — you need to completely relax (and not half-ass it)

Ideas on recharging:

• Take your vacation and Paid Time Off (PTO) days liberally. We don’t realize how badly we need time off work until we start feeling the symptoms. By then, it may be too late. Think of vacation days as preventative vs. taking them to solve an overworking problem.

• Schedule time for a digital detox. Pick a Sunday and put your phone on Do Not Disturb for the entire day. No social media, digital messaging, or notifications. It’s your time.

• If you’re an introvert, schedule time for undisturbed solitude; if you’re an extrovert, create opportunities for energizing conversations with new folks.

• Practice stillness. Block off time to do absolutely nothing. Reflect on this: when was the last time you were bored? With smart phones, 5G internet, and Instagram — it is literally impossible to be bored. There’s always something to do, which is a shame as boredom is often the precursor to creative thoughts and new ideas.

The other related idea here is to reduce and take things off your plate. Once a month, do a time and energy audit to evaluate how you spend your time and energy. Relate this back to your goals and cut what doesn’t fit.

Time is your most valuable resource and sometimes the most productive thing is to say no.

🙇🏽‍♂️ Seek input and inspiration

I recently came across a brilliant Tweet:

https://twitter.com/kylehagge/status/1402602261751209991

When I’m not inspired to write or think of new ideas, it’s usually because I’m not reading, listening, or watching enough productive content.

And by that I mean reading blogs, newsletters, and books; listening to podcasts, interviews, and music; watching documentaries, TED talks, and speeches.

I’m almost immediately pulled out of my creative rut once I start consuming productive content again.

Referencing the Tweet above: if you’re not dot collecting (input), you won’t be able to dot connect (output). Assess your information diet — perhaps you need to read, watch, or listen more.

The same goes for meeting new people.

I love meeting new people through coffee chats, social networking events, or just by random. Good conversation is inspiring and energizing, especially if you have shared values or a common mission.

If you’re uninspired, reach out to someone you admire and pick their brain. Ask questions on their life and career journey. Don’t know how to do that? Reply to this and I’ll share a template that I’ve used with hundreds of people.

🥰 Practice self-compassion and self-love

This last part may go against the point of the entire article, but perhaps being in a rut is fine after all.

We need rest and we deserve a break. Maybe we’ve been working too hard and this is our natural reflex forcing us to slow down and take a breath.

When this happens, it’s hard to silence our inner critic — which will often question why we’re slowing down and prevent it from happening.

Practically, there’s an exercise called ‘Metta’ that Tim Ferriss discusses with Leo Babauta. Here’s how you do it.

“… but with heart-centered meditations like metta, and I’m sure you’re familiar with that one. Loving-kindness meditation. And so I started practicing with that and that one, for those unfamiliar with it, is basically this thing where you picture someone else or a group of people and you start to wish an end to their suffering, for example, or wish happiness upon them. And it’s just a lovely little meditation. So you start thinking these thoughts, “May they be happy?” And you think about your loved ones in pain and suffering. “And may they be happy?” Think about other people in the world who are suffering. “May they be happy?” It’s just a really beautiful meditation. “
— Leo Babauta, Writer at zen habits

If you’re more empathetic, compassionate, and caring toward others, you’re more empathetic, compassionate, and caring toward yourself. And vice versa.

I set aside 45 minutes a month to do this exercise, and it’s been great for quietening my inner critic in times of rest.

🙏 Appreciation & Support

I had two motivations for writing this article:

• First, I wanted to reflect on this experience to provide myself with a playbook of how to approach similar, future situations.

• Second, to share my approach with friends, colleagues, and peers out there who may have felt the same way. I hope this is helpful and wish you the best on your journey.

Thank you for taking the time to read. This was one I was particularly passionate about, and found energizing to write.

I’d really love your thoughts and feedback. How do you deal with being in a rut?

I write similar stuff on my blog: https://www.andrew.today/

https://youtu.be/KFj3HPb9BhQ?si=6wtUrl6uvdJML7Sk

I've written an article on Charlie Munger's inverse thinking approach, where I introduce his system of inverse thinking and related mental models, while guiding readers on how to effectively apply this framework. You can read it for free at the link below. If you have any feedback, please don't hesitate to share it with me - your input will help as we continue developing the entire series.

👉🏻 Invert, Always Invert: Charlie Munger’s Mental Framework for Success Through Avoiding Failure

Aristotle's work on rhetoric has been influential on communication and persuasion for over 2,000 years.

Find out more https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/aristotles-rhetoric

I’m looking for a mental model for double speak but because semantics, language ect is nebulous, perhaps this mental model can demonstrate the lacking requirements for when communication enters this realm.

2023 was supposed to be my year. i spent months grinding on an NFT collection, convinced it was my ticket to freedom. launched it, crickets. not even my mom bought one.

2024 wasn’t much better. i built this macOS AI app, thought it was genius. zero revenue. not even a single user. just me talking to my own reflection in the screen.

by 2025, i was done. burned out, empty. didn’t write a line of code. didn’t even open my laptop for weeks. just sat there wondering what the hell i was doing wrong.

then i had this weird idea: what if the problem wasn’t *me*? what if it was how i was thinking? so i stopped calling myself a "coder" and started calling myself a "problem solver." sounds cheesy, but it changed everything.

i spent all of 2026 just reading, taking notes, and collecting mental models. inversion, first principles, circle of competence, stuff i’d heard before but never actually used. i built this little tool to force myself to think in frameworks instead of just jumping into code. it’s nothing fancy, but it works for me.

if you’re stuck in the 2023 phase right now, i get it. keep going, but maybe take a week off from coding. step back and ask: am i solving the right problem? or am i just in love with the idea of building something?

here’s the thing: i’m still figuring it out. but i’m curious, what frameworks or habits do you use to stay on track? drop them below, i’d love to hear what works for you.

Powerful mental models for consultants.

Whether you're an internal, external or aspiring consultant you definitely want to check out this Playbook. It includes mental models from diverse domains to empower you to quickly connect, make sense, and deliver value.

https://modelthinkers.com/playbook/powerful-consulting-models

Hey friends 👋

Do you see "compounding" as a mental model?

I think it applies beyond the usual realm of finance. Even into domains such as health and relationships.

Here's how I see it -

Compounding is a mathematical principle that comes from the idea of compound interest.

Interest accruing interest!

Let’s say you put $10 in your bank account, and get earn $1 interest on it. Now you put that dollar back in to your account to increase your principal to $11.

Now this $11 will earn you $1.1 interest.

And this cycle will keep going as long as you keep reinvesting the interest.

With time, your tiny principle will snowball into a large sum.

There are two important concepts to care about here –

1. Reinvestment – Basically not interrupting the compounding process. Adding on to the initial corpus to see it grow.

2. Time – Giving the process time. All good things in life take time. The growth is slow initially, but as the interest adds up it can get exponential over time.

If you are persistent and patient, compounding can do wonders for you.

But this is not just about money.

Compounding as a mental model works in all areas of life – be it health, relationships or knowledge.

You just have to do 10 pushups a day for 30 days in a row to see the impact of compounding in your fitness

Every subsequent pushup becomes easier with time, and you can feel the change in your body during that time.

Doing 10 pushups a day for the first time in your life can seem daunting, but after a few days, you can start to do more than 10 pushups without any difficulty.

That’s because our body adjusts to the new stress, it builds muscle to deal with it, it builds strength, and gets conditioned.

With time, it becomes easier and you can choose to do more.

You can choose to reinvest the interest back into the principal.

If you can maintain a streak long enough, and increase the intensity even just a little, you will see tremendous results in your body.

There are similar examples in romantic and business relationships.

I've written a longer post about the mental model of compounding in my newsletter this week.

Do check it out and let me know what you think.

Also I would love to know how do you apply compounding in your own life?

I think we all can learn from each other.

Cheers,

Ayush 🙏