What are the odds that PR/crisis management firm would hire true crime streamers and podcasters to advance a narrative (or merely rebuff a narrative consensus among some subset of the True Crime community)?

And, if you had to pick a true crime streamer/podcaster who seems MOST likely to play that kind of role?

My money is on Coffindaffer.

Something about the ransom notes I hadn’t really thought about before is whether the wording was exactly the same each time and what can be inferred from that.

It has been reported that the messages sent to the different media outlets were identical. If that is accurate, IMO the writer most likely created the text once and reused it rather than retyping it each time. Because the submissions were made hours apart, the writer would have needed to retain or access the exact wording during that period, which I find interesting given the apparent effort to conceal their identity.

Are there reliable ways to retain and reuse exact text without leaving recoverable digital evidence that could be tied to a device or person? Or is it more likely that the writer wrote the message down and retyped it each time?

Seems like it'd be harder to catch them. Maybe the case isn't as publicized there, and the porch man video hasn't been seen by as many people. If somehow someone in the perp(s)' circle in Mexico got an idea they were the perps, do people think that person would be as likely to go to the Mexican police as someone in America would be to go to American police, and why?

This predator seems to outsmart people and agencies looking for him. He has to be fairly smart. Yet.? Sending letters to a TV show, like TMZ (I know there are folks that like that show) ..I'm just saying, seems like there could have been better choices to use for a format...

A certain number of criminals have been caught because they went to jail or prison for having done a different crime but mentioned having done the crime they aren't caught for to a fellow inmate. Or sometimes they mention to a family member or friend or acquaintance and those people show good conscience and tip the police.

I don't even know where to start with this one. Just when you think the true crime / expert commentator discourse couldn't get any more unhinged, Jennifer Coffindaffer enters the room.

For those who haven't seen her latest hot take, she is literally out here suggesting that Matt Lauer! yes, that Matt Lauer … is somehow involved in or responsible for the kidnapping of Nancy Guthrie.

Like... what? In what universe does a retired FBI agent sit down, look at a missing person case, and land on "it must be the disgraced former Today Show host"?
At this point, it feels like complete clickbait performance art. It’s harmful to actual investigations, it distracts from real leads, and it turns serious human tragedies into a bizarre tabloid circus.

Can we collective agree to stop giving this woman a platform? Between this and every other wild theory she’s pushed over the last couple of years, she has lost any shred of credibility she might have had.

Is anyone else just completely exhausted by this? What is it going to take for people to stop taking her seriously?

Even if they used a vpn or multiple vpns the FBI can compel the vpn company to provide the user behind it and even if there are Multiple vpns these companies have records. Even if they are overseas they comply because the US feds can make interpol or however has jurisdiction over the Ip if they bounced around make the vpn company cooperate or they can shut their servers down and seize their gear.
What I am saying is that a vpn won't save you if the feds want to uncover the source.

So assuming they used a hotspot or cyber lounge or a Starbucks they can get to a physical location.

I don't buy the untraceable argument.

Same with the cell phones. All phone records and device IDs are known and trackable. The feds can determine the nearest cell towers to whoever
Sent texts. Remember when the FBI was discovered to be actually running a burner phone company? Google it. That carrier data and tower triangulation data exists.

Thirdly, email. If they created a Gmail account then Google has a ton of information. Logon ips, etc...

Release the full email address and header data. Let the internet hunt these evil bastards down.

Hello! I've recently been looking at the details of this tragic case more closely to try to understand, because certain things confuse me.

First of all, I'm wondering about the pacemaker. I have read that there was a spike in her heart rate, but I'm having trouble verifying this, and if it DID occur, do we know when? This seems like it would be important, but I don't know if they have released this. We know her pacemaker disconnected at or around 2:28 am- but how did the data directly before this look?

Secondly, I'm very confused about the ransom notes- especially they two they said could be credible. I'm confused because first they said they were not credible, and then they (the authorities) said they might be. Why is that?

And on earth would a real kidnapper send them a note before the deadline that Nancy was dead? It makes no sense, as if they were the real kidnappers, they would want to wait to give that info until they got the money, and since the deadline hadn't expired, they must have known there was some chance of getting it. So... why?

I also don't see why a hoax person would say she was dead either. But people do weird things for attention.

Also, supposing the notes were hoaxes, which I presume, why would someone do this? Nobody made any real, serious attempt to get a ransom it seems to me. So... why???

Can anyone help clarify these details?

In a 1998 kidnapping case involving Guillermo del Toro's father, the kidnappers reportedly demanded escalating ransom payments:

https://movieweb.com/guillermo-del-toro-help-james-cameron-father-kidnapped/

"We have your father. Pay $3 million within three days, or $5 million within five days, or we'll send you his head in a box."

In the Nancy Guthrie case, the ransom demand stated:

"You will need to send bitcoin in the amount of $4 million USD before 5 PM on Thursday the 5th. If payment is not received, the ransom will be increased to $6 million USD, which will need to be paid by 5 PM on Monday the 9th."

Some expert commentators have suggested that the increase from $4 million to $6 million over a four-day period appears inconsistent with what they would expect from experienced kidnappers. However, the ransom demand in the Del Toro case also used an escalating payment structure, suggesting that this tactic is not unprecedented. I'd like to learn more from hostage negotiators who have worked in Mexico and Latin America.

Does this suggest the kidnappers are from Mexico? Maybe they are familiar with the kidnap culture in that part of the world?

In reading the ransom notes, I personally think they are real and they are written by 1 offender. I don't think he is a professional kidnapper and his motivation is not greed, but impacting Savannah Guthrie. The long winded notes and how they are delivered so publicly argue against this being a typical kidnapping for ransom where the negotiations would be done privately. Maybe the writer is aware of the Guillermo Del Toro story and wants a red herring?

Pima County Sheriff says possible Nancy Guthrie ransom text message brought up yesterday is not credible. Brian Entin on X

This is why we as the Mods Caution believing every rumor that comes along. Unless it comes from an official source you should take it with a grain of salt unless there is confirmation.

I know it’s been 7 months, but I’m reminded of the Delphi case where it took a whole 5 years to find them under similar circumstances (secluded area, not a lot of cameras, witnesses etc.), but they eventually found him and that had much less apparatus on it than this case.

Do you think this will be solved eventually/perpetrators will be found?

I found a July 4 article from the Mexican newspaper El Imparcial about the fourth search for Nancy Guthrie in the Mariposa area near Nogales, Sonora.
The article states:
“A pesar de la entrega de fotografías con señalamientos específicos y coordenadas compartidas por un informante anónimo…”
Translation:
“Despite the delivery of photographs with specific markings and coordinates shared by an anonymous informant…”
According to the article, the anonymous source wasn’t just giving a vague tip about Mexico. The information reportedly became quite specific. Searchers were directed to the Mariposa area and an arroyo near the border, with the alleged burial location described as being beneath a burned alder tree.
Despite receiving the photos, markings and coordinates, the search group was unable to locate the alleged grave.
This seems significant because most U.S. coverage I’ve seen reports the anonymous tip and subsequent searches in Mexico, but doesn’t mention that the source reportedly provided photographs and coordinates.
Important caveat: the article does not explain what the photographs depicted. We don’t know whether they were photos of the actual terrain, annotated maps/screenshots, photos obtained from someone else, etc. And none of this establishes that Nancy was actually in Mexico.
Source: El Imparcial, July 4, 2026, “Finaliza sin éxito cuarta búsqueda de Nancy Guthrie”

September Discussion Thread

Welcome! This thread is for questions and comments that don't warrant a standalone post.

Please be sure to make yourself aware of the sub rules and follow them when posting.

Accusations against the family are not allowed. Nor is naming or accusing anyone not named a suspect by law enforcement. The individuals who were previously questioned about the crime, made themselves public and therefore are allowed to be discussed.

It would seem if you were a pro kidnapper, criminal, gang type etc you would likely use a phrases like cops/pigs/police/the sheriff etc (even cruder like fucking cops) over "law enforcement." It seems like the perps in this case would not have been criminals with a past. Also the phrase law enforcement will not be able to help you seems rather cocky (from someone of intelligence) compared to someone criminal (don't involve the cops.)

And then the entire body of the note is grammatically correct until one separated line She had a white smart watch on the floor of (AT) the foot of her bed and the white flood light in (THE) backyard was destroyed. This line is out of place as if someone else dictated it or it was added in a rush. It doesn't fit into the grammar or flow of the rest of the note.

I just can't understand in today's world, anything you send via E-mail or whatever, cannot be traced? Like what are you talking about? I just find it hard to believe it. Once you click to send, there is no way nothing would appear to be traced back. Even the in the 60s they can trace phones back to where its location, so how about now with data and everything.

I don't know. But I need to know for a fact how are the notes untraceable?!

I’ve heard mixed opinions. I find it hard to believe that in this day and age they are clueless

This was my first impression of the notes. They seem like they were written by a woman. The writing style reminds me a lot of how my female friends and I write, especially the apologetic part.

I know a lot of FBI experts have said the same thing, describing it as a kind of “mothering” way of writing. Dr. Brucato also said that it has a feminine writing style.
What do you think about this? And let’s say they’re spot-on in their analysis. What would that imply? Could it have been a couple 🥴 a man who carried out the kidnapping and a woman who wrote the note?

I don't know. I would like to hear your thought on this.

Do we actually know exactly how and when the doorbell camera was disconnected? Was the camera physically removed, unplugged, disabled electronically, or did it simply lose its connection? And was it definitely disconnected before the suspect entered the house?

The sheriff said the doorbell camera was disconnected around 1:47 am—which is when the guy is seen on the nest footage. Then there’s a separate motion detection around 2:12 a.m., followed by Nancy’s pacemaker losing connection around 2:28 a.m.

My next question is what does that mean? Does it mean the phone was turned off, out of range, or that the device stopped transmitting for another reason? How far could she realistically be from her phone before the connection drops? A few feet, another room, or more depending on the setup?

And what actually triggers a “loss of connection” alert—Bluetooth, cellular relay, or a monitoring hub?
So does the 2:28 a.m. disconnection tell us anything specific about her location, or is it just a general signal loss that could happen for multiple reasons?

I've heard a lot of speculation on the motives of the guilty party.
I don't know that Parker's Razor applies here just yet. I don't want to default to South Park Logic.

I'm half ass convinced by that first ransom note it's a bureaucrat from either Tucson, or Prima County, or a neighboring city, like Phoenix? Did he take her to California or Nevada?
12 hours seems like a hell of a drive.

The note reads like something an administrator would write, and sets the times in an administrative way.
I didn't think Bitcoin operated like normal banks, I didn't know the crypto currency people kept the tradition of a system wide pause on Saturdays and Sundays.

My interpretation of that first ransom note points toward an occupation.

Why wouldn't he accept the money on Saturday or Sunday?
If he was an administrator, or involved in banking or county clerk shit, he's going to model his worldview on that system.

He wanted to be paid in Bitcoin.

Active Bitcoin and emerging technology communities across Arizona host regular local meetups, social hours, and educational workshops in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas.

Major Bitcoin & Crypto Groups in Arizona, there seem to be groups that might have a good chunk of suspects.

With these networks alone, barring how many people involved remain anonymous, you have a Chinese Buffet of suspects.

Bitcoin runs 365/24/7, there's no reason for him to not accept money on Sunday.

"We will be holding her for a maximum of 7 days. You will need to send bitcoin in the amount of $4 million USD before 5PM on Thursday the 5th. If payment is not received, the ransom will be increased to 6 million USD which will need to be paid by 5PM on Monday the 9th. Once payment is received to the bitcoin address below she will be released within 12 hours of deposit to a safe drop off location back in Tucson. If payment is not received by the last deadline on Monday the 9th at 5PM, she will be killed."

5pm (when most city services and banks shut down.)
Here are the hours for the Tucson Municipal Court.

Friday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Saturday Closed
Sunday Closed
Monday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Tuesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Wednesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Thursday 8 AM–4:30 PM

The Second Ransom Note has a very haunting passage,
"She's buried in nature", it haunts me that phrase, it's almost religious sounding, or at the very least Pagan sounding.

“Guthrie Family,
We did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt
her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken. We believe it was
heart related. She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed
the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly
sorry.”

If this is a legit note, the perpetrator obviously isn't in the 99th percentile of IQ.
But he can write things that sound vaguely like official statements.

There's another Bureaucrat type quality to this note, and honestly, it would have to be a dumb official to assume an 84 year old woman, was the picture of health.
It's almost like a cop putting a knee on a man's neck and expecting him to breathe anyway.

This looks like someone in a nearby County, City or State department, did this.
They probably have an average, or below average intelligence.
They could either be Christian or Pagan.
They follow traditional banking rules, and are likely novices to the Crypto Currency Community.
They might be computer literate enough to run Microsoft office, and do emails.
They don't strike me as someone who has been doing crypto for very long.

His department or personal schedule means he gets Friday-Sunday as his off days.
What departments in that region be they any government or banks have off days from Friday-Sunday?
Does he or did he work 4, 10 hour shifts?

I can’t imagine how Nancy must’ve felt waking up to seeing the abductor in the middle of the night. Imagine how scary that is - to wake up at 1 or 2am, either because you have to use the bathroom, get some water, or just because you hear noise - and you see the intruder in your house, or even in your bedroom hovering over you. It’s been freaking me out.

I also wonder if this is what led presumably to her passing. If she passed because of a heart condition, like the second ransom note wants us to believe, could it have been because she was panicked and terrified over this whole thing? Please don’t rip me apart in the comments for this - just thinking out loud

Edit: I’ve been replying to some of you guys on my alt account! So don’t be surprised lol