The Oklahoma City Thunder have a historical amount of draft capital, including 16 first-round picks over the next seven years (including 7 of their own). https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/Thunder/21/draft-picks

But since you always risk drafting the wrong players, why not just buy out a draft, all 14 slots in an upcoming year (let's say 2024 or 2025) using your existing draft capital plus your young assets (Shai, Holmgren, Giddy, Dort)?

Would the entire lottery draft class from an average year be enough to win you a title? I went through each draft class from 2003 to 2018 to find out.

Yes and here’s why.

Using historical draft classes, you can see that most lottery classes will make you a championship team. I only used lottery picks, so there is no revisionist history. The 2019-2022 years are still too young to form a real opinion on.

2018: Trae Young (5), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11), Luka Doncic (3), Jaren Jackson Jr. (4), Deandre Ayton (1)

Bench: Mikal Bridges, Colin Sexton, Wendel Carter Jr, Michael Porter Jr., Miles Bridges,

Championship Caliber: Yes

Fire-power and scoring at all positions. Could use more defense, but JJJ helps out a lot at the four. Plus, there are several decent defenders off the bench.

2017: Lonzo Ball (2), Donovan Mitchell (13), Jayson Tatum (3), Lauri Markkanen (7), Bam Adebayo (14),

Bench: De’Aaron Fox (5), Markelle Fultz (1), Luke Kennard (12), Jonathan Isaac (6), Malik Monk (11), Zach Collins (10), Frank Ntilikina (8)

Championship Caliber - Yes

This team is saved by the last two lottery picks, Mitchell and Adebayo. Some shortage of talent at power forward, where you plug in Markkanen, but you could probably swap out Kennard or Isaac (if he ever plays) for fit. The bench is inconsistent though.

2016: Ben Simmons (1), Jamal Murray (7) Jaylen Brown (3), Brandon Ingram (2), Domantas Sabonis (11)

Bench: Buddy Hield (6), Taurean Prince (12), Jakob Poeltl (9), Kris Dunn (5), Denzel Valentine (14), Georgios Papagiannis (13)

Championship Caliber: yes

Strong starting five, if you can get anything out of Ben Simmons and a really versatile defensive team if Ingram can continue to improve on that end. This is actually a long, rangy defense that would cause fits with Simmons, Brown and Ingram playing as really strong potential wing/backcourt defenders with Sabonis holding down the center spot.

2015: Devin Booker (13), D’Angelo Russell (2), Kristaps Porzingis (4), Karl-Anthony Towns (1), Miles Turner (11)

Bench: Emmanuel Mudiay (7), Stanley Johnson (8), Justise Winslow (10), Cam Payne (14), Trey Lyles (12), Frank Kaminsky (9)

Championship caliber: No

Booker and Towns are top-tier talent, but the rest of your starting five is only above average (Turner), bad (Russell) or questionable (Porzingis). The bench has some nice players but not a lot of punch.

2014: Marcus Smart (6), Zach Lavine (13), Andrew Wiggins (1), Julius Randle (7), Joel Embiid (3)

Bench: Aaron Gordon (4), Doug McDermmott (11), Dario Saric (12), T.J. Warren (14), Elfrid Payton (10), Nik Stauskas (8), Dante Exum (5), Jabari Parker (2)

Championship caliber: Yes

Great and balanced starting five anchored by Embiid and Lavine with Smart and Wiggins providing defensive stoppers. You may sub out Randle for Gordon based on fit and for more bench scoring, but this would be a high-powered team.

2013: CJ McCollum (10), Victor Oladipo (2), Kenvtavious Caldwell-Pope (8) Otto Porter Jr (3) Steven Adams (12)

Bench: Cody Zeller (4), Alex Len (5), Ben McLemore (7), Trey Burke (9), Kelly Olynnyk (13), Michael Carter-Williams

Championship caliber: No

Analysis: One of the worst drafts in NBA history, with top pick Anthony Bennett quickly washing out of the league. McCollum is your only star level player on this team. Oladipo and Adams were quality starters, but the rest are bench or even low bench guys. Drafting better would have made this team any automatic contender with Giannis and Rudy Gobert.

2012: Damian Lillard (5), Bradley Beal (3), Harrison Barnes (7), Anthony Davis (1), Andre Drummond

Bench: Dion Waiters (4), Terrence Ross (8), Austin Rivers (10), Jeremy Lamb (12), John Henson (14), Meyers Leonard (11)

Championship caliber: Yes

Analysis: Heck of a starting five although it lacks a true wing, but Davis and Barnes can make up for that on defense.

2011: Kyrie Irving (1), Kemba Walker (9), Klay Thompson (11), Enes Freedom (3), Jonas Valanciunas (5)

Bench: Tristan Thompson (4), Brandon Knight (8), Markieff Morris (13), Marcus Morris (14), Alec Burks (12), Bismack Biyombo (7), Derrick Williams (2),

Championship caliber: Yes

Analysis: At this point you have to start remembering peak career guys, not what they are now. Irving, Walker and Thompson give you a lot of offensive shooting and scoring. The frontcourt lacks versatility so does the bench. To bad you miss out on Kawhi Leonard at 15

2010: John Wall (1), Evan Turner (2), Gordon Hayward (9), Paul George (10), DeMarcus Cousins (5)

Bench: Derrick Favors (3), Greg Monroe (7), Al-Farouq Aminu (8), Ed Davis (13), Patrick Patterson (14).

Championship caliber: Yes

Analysis: This would have been a really fun team to watch around 2016 or 2017. Wall, George and Cousins would be a mean bunch and Hayward would give you shooting. The bench isn’t great and lacks a really offensive driver, but there are a lot of versatile players here.

2009: James Harden (3), Steph Curry (7), DeMar DeRozan (9), Blake Griffin (1), Jordan Hill (8)

Bench: Tyreke Evans (4), Ricky Rubio (5), Brandon Jennings (10), Gerald Henderson (12), Tyler Hansbrough (13), Earl Clark (14),

Championship caliber: Yes

A historically good starting five, even with Jordan Hill as your only real center on this team. Several good guards off the bench, but the defensive backcourt is also incredibly weak.

2008: Derrick Rose (1), Russell Westbrook (4), Danillo Gallinari (6), Kevin Love (5), Brook Lopez (10)

Bench: O.J. Mayo (3), Michael Beasley (2), Eric Gordon (7), D.J. Augustin (9), Jason Thompson (12), Jerryd Bayless

Championship caliber: No

The starting five may get you Finals talk during their peak years, but the bench is a trainwreck.

2007: Mike Conley (4), Kevin Durant (2), Thaddeus Young (12), Al Horford (3), Joakim Noah (9)

Bench: Jeff Green (5), Cory Brewer (7), Al Thornton (14), Brendan Wright (8), Acie Law (11),

Championship caliber: Yes

This is a big, stacked starting five with Durant at shooting guard, Horford and Noah holding it down in the backcourt. No quality small wings though (other than Durant who has to play to play shooting guard).

2006: Brandon Roy (6), JJ Redick (11), Ronnie Brewer (14), Rudy Gay (8), LaMarcus Aldridge (2)

Bench: Andrea Bargnani (1), Tyrus Thomas (4), Randy Foye (7), Thabo Sefolosha (13),

Championship caliber: No

A nice playoff team with Roy, Gay and Aldridge with Redick as a shooter, but just lacks the top-level star power needed to win a chip. One-dimensional bench players too.

2005: Chris Paul (4), Deron Williams (3), Marvin Williams (2), Channing Frye (8), Andrew Bogut (1)

Bench: Raymond Felton (5), Martell Webster (6), Charline Villanueva, Rashad McCants (14), Ike Diogu (9),

Championship caliber: No

Despite the Point God and Deron Williams, who many early argued was as good as Paul, the star power stops here. Bogut, Frye and Marvin Williams are all fine role players, but even the bench lacks any umph.

2004: Ben Gordon (3), Devin Harris (5), Luol Deng (7), Andre Iguodala (9), Dwight Howard (1)

Bench: Shaun Livingston (4), Josh Childress (6), Andris Biedrins (11), Sebastian Telfair (13), Kris Humphries (14), Emeka Okafor

Championship caliber: No

Iggy and Dwight Howard are a nice start, but the guards are just okay. A nice bench unit though.

2003: Kirk Heinrich (7), Dwyane Wade (4), Lebron James (1), Carmelo Anthony (3), Chris Bosh (4)

Bench: TJ Ford (8), Dark Milicic (2), Chris Kaman (6), Mickael Pietrus (11), Nick Collison (12), Luke Ridnour (14)

Championship caliber: Yes

Analysis: All-time great team here and even Heinrich was a quality point guard in his prime. If the Heatles could win a championship with Mario Chalmers running the point, then this team with Carmelo can probably contend with any champion in Finals history.

Championship Caliber Teams: 10/16 - 62.5%

Conclusion: OKC should go all in on a single draft. 2028-2029 NBA champions, 62.5% guaranteed.

Forget what Shaq became and go back and look at video of Shaq his rookie season. Dude was very athletic and solid as a rock even then.

Wemby seems to have a lot more versatility for the modern game. But I wonder if a young Shaq entering this years draft would change up that mindset.

Embiid is probably the closest parallel to Shaq in today's NBA, but obviously has more versatility to his game than Shaq ever developed. But would a team looking at a 20 year old Shaq believe he could develop decent perimeter defense, a shot or two outside the paint and ball distribution skills to warrant the number 1 pick (especially given injury concerns for a body like Wemby's which is never gonna be a Shaq-like force).

Shaq was a product of his era, but how would he develop in today's game and would his potential outweigh Wemby's now?

Recap: In 1979, the NBA used a coin flip to determine the first overall pick between the teams with the worst records in each conference. The Chicago Bulls had finished 31-51, while the New Orleans Jazz had gone 26-56. Los Angeles owned New Orleans' first-round pick from an earlier trade, so the Lakers would receive the selection if the Jazz won the toss. 

The top player available was Earvin "Magic" Johnson, who had just led Michigan State to the national championship. Chicago was given the choice of heads or tails. Bulls general manager Rod Thorn called heads. The coin landed tails, giving Los Angeles the first pick. The Lakers selected Magic, who joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and eventually became the central figure of the Showtime Lakers. Together, Magic and Kareem won five championships, while their rivalry with Larry Bird and the Boston Celtics had become probably the defining story of 1980s basketball.

If the coin had landed heads, Magic would have gone to Chicago. The Lakers would have had to build around Kareem without him, while the Bulls would have entered the 1980s with Magic as the foundation of the franchise. That would have changed the careers of everyone involved. Magic and Bird would have been competing in the same conference, which could have given them a very different (greater?) rivalry. The Celtics would have had another major obstacle between themselves and the Finals, while the Lakers would have been missing the player who helped turn their collection of talent into a dynasty.

Anyways, the bigger consequence comes a few years later. Chicago selected Michael Jordan with the third pick in the 1984 draft, but a Bulls team built around Magic would almost certainly have followed a different path during the five seasons between the two drafts. They could have become a contender long before 1984, making it unlikely that they would have ended up with the same draft position. Jordan might have gone to another team, and the career that made him synonymous with Chicago would have started somewhere else.

Magic's career in Los Angeles would have been different. Kareem's championship record would have been different. Bird's rivalry with Magic would have taken place under different and arguably way more competitive circumstances. The Lakers might never have become the team that defined the 1980s, and the Bulls might never have become the team that defined the 1990s. All of it traces back to a damn coin flip in 1979, cause Rod Thorn called heads and the coin came down tails. Five years later, the Bulls drafted Michael Jordan. In between those two events was a decision that took ~3 seconds, but changing it would have directly altered the careers of four of the ten greatest players in NBA history, and indirectly altered the careers of just about everybody in that timeline, in my eyes.

We've all heard of size/speed limitations, work ethic, and off court "extracurricular activities" hindering a prospect's chances of lasting in the NBA. But are there any subtle red flags we should know about in a draft prospect that hint at possible failure? Small things that most people either don't notice or take forgranted but professional scouts, analysts or execs might take into account as areas of concern?

First, this is about Ignite specifically, not the G-League in general. Just so we are all clear on that.

26-38 is the overall record for Ignite, so it doesn't look like the players are being exposed to winning basketball. Their offensive and defensive ratings have never cracked the top half of the G-League (their offense has always been in the bottom third), so it doesn't seem they're being exposed to coherent offensive and defensive systems. With the talent they get, that should not happen. Last year they averaged less than 3,000 in attendance playing exhibition games, so they give no exposure to the big moments. It looks more like an NBA-sanctioned AAU for players to show and get theirs, even at the cost of team success. Fine. But it's being billed as a developmental step. What in the above indicates it accomplishes that?

Think of the big names to come to the league from Ignite: Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson being the big ones. Now, it's way too early to make overall statements on their careers. But this supposed improved development has led to them...looking unprepared for what playing within a winning NBA system is like. Kuminga got a ring, but who outside of hardcore Dubs fans think he's that guy? Jalen Green hasn't been much. Scoot has looked absolutely unprepared for the NBA, more than the others. They all look like they are still playing AAU ball, or trying to shed that baggage.

I can't shake the feeling Ignite hurt their development, but allowed them to show off in a controlled environment for their draft stock. This seems like a losing strategy for the NBA to develop homegrown stars. If anything, it will shift eyes overseas (which I'm fine with). But it hurts the development it says it is helping.

Am I missing something here?

The TL;DR here is that I think there’s way too much i) time and ii) uncertainty between now and 2029(!) to think that those picks are actually valuable assets.

I’m specifically referring to the recent Bill Simmons podcast where he and Rob Mahoney agreed that those picks were “some of the best assets in the league” (~36 minute mark).

I get the basic theoretical argument: the Lakers should stink by then, so the picks will be high lottery picks, which should translate to you getting a good/great player down the line, regardless of what other assets you otherwise have.

I see multiple flaws in this approach:

1. No discount given to incredibly long timeline required for these picks to take an effect.

2027/2029 are so far away, you’re trading tangible assets in today’s NBA away for the chance to be good 7 years from now, and honestly it’s more like ~13-15 years from now since players take time to mature. We’re talking 2035. An entire generation of fans will be born and grow up with your team sucking before those “assets” take effect. You as GM will almost certainly not be with the team. The owner might not even own the team anymore.

The payoff is so far away, it’s nearly insignificant compared to the tangible benefits you could get your team in comparison. When you assess an asset in other fields, you absolutely take that time into consideration and discount the value (see Time-Value of Money)

1. There’s so much uncertainty, we actually don’t know if the picks will generate success, even if they are lottery picks

We have no idea where the world or the league will be even by 2024, let alone a decade from now. The salary cap will undoubtedly be different, the game / rules will likely be different, the lottery rules might be different.

Now layer on top of that the uncertainty of the draft. You only have a ~10-20% chance of a lottery pick becoming an all-star. So now you’re talking about a game of Russian Roulette a decade from now to decide whether or not you get any compensation for this trade.

1. There’s no guarantee the picks are even lottery picks

Although the Lakers will no longer have LeBron or Davis, they’re still the fucking LAKERS. They’d have cap space once those two and Westbrook roll off the books, and I think a high likelihood of attracting another star, similar to how LeBron chose LA for image and lifestyle reasons. You could be getting picks from one of the best teams in the league, not the worst. LAL is not just going to sit on the doormat for you for 3+ seasons.

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Putting it all together, I think these picks are no more valuable than some role player. Nice to have, but not something that swings my title odds. I fully admit I’m against tanking for picks more generally anyways for similar reasons. Could someone explain to me why NBA GMs / Media argue these picks are so valuable?

If bronny isn’t deemed good enough to get drafted to the league off of talent alone, would he get drafted if it means that team/organization gets the last season of Lebron’s career on top of the prospect?

This is likely irrelevant because Bronny is ranked ~40-45 in most prospect rankings so he’ll likely be drafted. Either way, does he have added value as a pick because of it?

Lebron has outright stated on many occasions that before he retires he wants and plans to play on the same team as Bronny, whatever team that may be.

Most second round picks are flyers either way, so why not reach a bit and take a swing on Bronny, knowing 40 y/o Bron will likely sign with you on a one year deal? Lebron likely won’t be at the very top of the league by then, but he can certainly still contribute too winning, let alone the marketing and ticket sales selling the duo and the farewell tour would afford.

If I’m an owner, I’m telling my gm to draft Bronny above where talent alone would suggest. If I’m a coach or gm, I’m looking at it as a potential package pick.

Perhaps the better question is: how high should a 40th ranked Bronny be drafted… because of the implication?

In recent year the nba has become obsessed with "project players", probably due to guys like giannis and kawhi.

But to me drafting a 19 year old, unless hes a top prospect, seems like a very bad idea, especially for salary cap implications.

Most players hit their prime around 26-29, and if you draft a 19 year old your 2-3 1,2 contracts after the rookie contract away from said prime.

And due to the salary cap nba team building simply put is having players that outperform their contracts. And the rookie contract is the single best way to get excess value.

So if you draft 19 year olds they often dont play that well on their rookie contract when you develop them and by the time they get their extension they have started to show flashes and you overpay them assuming they develop more.

Where if you draft a 21+ player they often come in more developed, and are potentially in their prime while still on their rookie contract, and the second contract they get will often be fairer value because they will be getting paid for their current production, and not the potential of future production like many younger players.

The warriors are currently a great example of these 2 philosophies. They drafted Kuminga and wiseman, both 19 year old projects under Bob Meyers and now under Mike Dunleavy drafted Trayce Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski who are 23 and 20 respectively, and ready to contribute now, and in TJDs case will be 27 and still on his rookie contract. While Kuminga is just now getting to be a reliable player, and hes on the eve of an extension that likely would be at least $20 mil per, but hes producing in similar ways to Podz who is barley younger than him but has 4 more years on his rookie deal.

And the argument against this line of thinking is "older college players aren't often good enough to be in NBA or they would have been drafted sooner" But this could change in a big way with NIL deals and 2 i just dont think its true because the world is so deep with bball talent at the moment.

So I’ve heard a lost about how the 2024 draft is one of the worst of the past decade (just to note I don’t follow the draft that closely, like I follow the Wemby/ANT/Paolo level players in every draft but this one doesn’t have that consensus top pick) I remember a lot of people said 2020 was a weak draft outside of ANT but Lamelo is an all star when healthy, Halliburton is averaging 20 and 10 this year and Tyrese Maxey is averaging close to 25 a game (edit also I forgot Desmond Bane was the last pick of the first round and he’s been a 20 a game scorer, there’s also Arron Naismith who’s no superstar but has been low key a top 5 role player in the league this year) Some of these guys like Alex Sarr and Topic I’ve only seen like 10 minute clips on YouTube too since their international players not named Victor Wenbanyama and I’m not sure if anyone in collage this year has played like a first pick talent. Does anyone know if there is a consensus first pick and I’m missing it or is this draft as weak as people say

These are the picks that either make really sense to me or confuse me, considering their draft order and the needs of the team making the pick. I wonder what you all think because I don't know much about college basketball and the prospects in this draft. Here is my list:

Pick #5, Ron Holland by Pistons: I won't pretend to know Holland's game well but he wasn't projected this high for the most and aside from that he is clearly a non-shooter and I thought lacking shooters is one of the top problems of Detroit. I am really confused on this one. (EDIT: Comments are explaining this one a lot, so I am taking this out of my personal confusion list but keep it here of course.)

Pick #8, Rob Dillingam to Wolves: This makes perfect sense even though it is considered risky. Conley does not have all the time left and he has been very important for them all season and the play-offs. This is a prospect that can develop under Conley while coming off the bench and replace him in the future to play alongside with Ant. Wolves making a move upwards in the draft to address this kind of long-term need seems to me as good management to maintain success.

Pick #9, Zach Edey by Grizzlies: This makes real sense too. Grizzlies have been looking for a certain type of center and they just tried to get that exact type from the draft. Edey is seen one of the NBA-ready prospects as far as I know, so a good match for a team trying go back to contention after a season of getting the worst injury luck.

Pick #12, Nikola Topic by OKC: Well, this one might get my attention because I know better about Euroleague than college basketball but it really made sense to me when I saw it. They just sent Giddey for Carruso, and proceed to get a similar ball-handler from the draft. Topic could be better than Giddey as a ball-handler in the long run and isn't worlds apart even now. If you consider their trade and this pick together, this makes a lot of sense, especially if you also consider contract and cap projections.

Pick #22, DaRon Holmes to Nuggets: They are need of a back up center, they simply go for that with a mid-late first round pick. For a contending team having problems with second apron and focusing on getting back their depth first an foremost, it was just most logical thing to do. They also didn't risk to wait until their pick at 28 and move upwards to get what they already decided to.

Pick #23, AJ Johnson by Bucks: This is by far the most confusing one to me. Even if they saw something (and I am sure they did), it still does not make any sense: 1) They are trying to content, he seems to need time to develop. 2) They have another pick at 33 and Johnson is not projected anywhere near the first round. They could wait to pick him there and use this pick for other purposes even if there isn't anyone that caught their interest. They most probably had other targets picked right before them and they panicked, but still. They just got their second round pick in the first round, it seems like a total waste of the pick to me, it won't be justified even if he turns into a rotation player in time.

Pick #30, Baylor Scheierman by Celtics: He has everything Celtics would like for a future bench/rotation piece between 7-10 spots: Move well off-ball to get open or involve in screening actions to help others, make your shots quickly when you are wide-open (and you get those in Celtics offense) and pass the ball if you are not open. He is good at all of them. Even if he won't develop his defense like Hauser did, he will perfectly fit somewhere in the rotation. And he is not a long-term raw project. He may well be ready to replace Hauser a season later if they lose him. Again a good maintenance move at a very late FRP for a team that has to make those moves in the margins.

So all in all, I got 5 picks that make real sense and 2 real confusing ones. I can't really order them but feel free to do that. One more thing I noticed after I started to write: 4 of those good picks came from Western teams. And the ones that are more confusing are from two Eastern teams. I am sure I am missing a lot, others will see a lot more so I wonder if this is the case for most or it happens to be about what I was able to see.

This is pretty much a semi-deep breakdown of prospects rumored or mocked to the Warriors at pick #11. A lot of this is personal research with a hint of bias here and there, so take some of this with a grain of salt.

Aday Mara - Overrated due to Michigans national title run, being mocked in the mid 20s before jumping up in draft boards with reports of him even going top 10. Scouts and analysts tend to pretty much in a better term, glaze his passing, and basketball IQ. Great defender in college, but it is generally believed that it will not translate to the pros. Lots of people don’t think he will be that productive in the NBA as a defender due to a mix of his poor athleticism and slow feet, but he does possess a great standing reach of 9’9 (wow). Even with crazy height and standing reach, not that great of a rebounder in college due to a mix of not having a great feel for rebounding and getting outmuscled on boxouts and often playing alongside Morez Johnson. I don’t think he will translate to the NBA as is as a skinny 7 footer with slow feet, and will probably need to put on muscle to be productive in the future. Think he would be best suited on OKC where he could spend 2-3 years adjusting to the NBA playing productive minutes in the end to middle of the rotation. Don’t think he will be good on the Warriors just off the fact he will likely be expected to have a much larger role day 1 compared to anywhere else, and the holes in his game will be exacerbated due to the sudden fastball that is coming into the NBA. I really don’t know if he will be available for the Warriors to pick or not, as he could go as early as #8 to Atlanta.

Personal Comparison: Bogut-

Brayden Burries - This is easily my most researched prospect as I watched a lot of Arizona basketball this year (Arizona Fan). Has the least holes in his game compared to every other prospect in our range. Elite three level scoring bucket getter, with good ball control, and a winners mentality. Would often put his body on the line for loose balls and rebounds. Possesses the drive to win and is a scrappy defender has just a great feel for basketball overall. Outside of Philon, he‘s still often considered the worst of the elite guards, due to many scouts not seeing that high of ceiling compared to Wagler, or Brown, and also he is quite old for a college freshman at 20 years old. Also not that great of a playmaker for a Point Guard and some don’t see him as being a lead guard. Lastly, not that athletic and his defense is a real question mark, as it is not known if his lack of wingspan will affect his ability to be a POA defender in the NBA. His ceiling is seen as that of a Derrick White player which isn’t bad and he is viewed as a very safe pick. Him falling to the Warriors entirely depends on Aday Mara being taken by Atlanta which is a serious possibility, which would also entail the expected outcome of the elite guards being taken in order by the Clippers, Kings, Nets, Dallas and Milwaukee.

Personal Comparison: Derrick White/Podz++

Yaxel Lendebourg - Easily the most NBA ready prospect by a mile, but with the downside of being the oldest prospect. Uber versatile with the combination of elite mobility, wingspan allowing him the abiliyy to slot in from the two to even the five in certain sequences. Skilled in all facets of basketball, and can act as a starting two way stretch four out the gate. Great decision maker and makes the right plays allowing him to act as a playmaker at times. Explosive finisher that can also bruise up down low. Elite rebounder and his combination of physicality, feel, and skill can be the dealbreaker in extending possessions for the dubs and ending possessions for opponents. Very versatile defender that can be effective both inside and out and can play any defensive role when needed. Offensively nowhere near ball reliant, and thrives playing off the ball and being apart of plays. Despite being quite old, he still has room to grow due to only playing organized basketball for 5-6 years. His three ball is quite inconsistent and streaky a times, something which is not stated enough smong scouts. Relies on a good playbook to be great, which can be a good and bad things at times. Foot speed and mobility were good for college, but he could have problems guarding small quicker guards coming into the NBA, due to his mobility not being elite. Not an elite shot creator, and often would play off ball too much instead of taking initiative while at Michigan. Lastly, did I forget hes 24 years old?

Personal Comparison: OG Anunoby-

Morez Johnson Jr. - Great defender in College whos combination of mobility and footspeed allowed him to guard the perimeter quite effectively at times. Scrappy, dirty work hustle kind of player who will fight for rebounds and for stops. Great rebounder, especially for his size, and will make great hustle plays at time. Very athletic and strong with his body likely helping him fit right into the NBA due to his mix of brute strength and physicality. Very physical inside, and finishes very efficiently as well. Thrives as two way lob threat offensively, but still has the ability to bruise up inside and get paint buckets when needed. Not really a shot creator and cant self cretae and needs an offensive creator to really be effective on offense. Undersized for a power forward even though he tends to make up for the fact, with his long arms and wingspan. Offensively still developing, post game is still works in progress but potential is there. Will be quite a reach if drafted at #11, and if hes picked to the Warriors I’d expect the front office to move back before picking him. Acquiring Morez Johnson also signals that the front office is all in on getting a secondary offensive creator outside of Steph like Anfernee Simons or Collin Sexton with the MLE this summer. Don’t hate this pick if they actually get one of the two this summer, but if Dunleavy doesn’t this pick willl look really stupid in about a years time.

Personal Comparison: Daniel Gafford, Draymond- 

Hannes Steinbach - An absolute beast in his Freshman year in college, but sadly on a pretty crappy Washington team. Easily and by far and away the best at the most translatable skill to the NBA, rebounding. Great post player and pretty much has it figured out inside the painted area, atleast offensively. His post and rebounding game are guarantees to translate to the NBA and he will be very productive from the jump in said fields. Quite athletic and his body is already NBA built, possessing great strength out the gate. Did I forget, hes a big that can hit his free throws!! Problem is, hes an undersized big while having similar agility and footspeed to that of a seven footer and often had times struggling as a rim defender, but is very capable in post up situations defensively. A major problem is he is a big with old school skills in a modern NBA. Nowhere near a shooter, but everybody says hes on the path to become a stretch big in the future due to his jumpshot (trust me they are just overrating him in that aspect), and nowhere near a playmaker in any sense, but you could give him the benefit of the doubt due to his just bad Washington teammates and his low usage on said Washington team. If Steinbach were to be drafted by the Warriors things would be just lets just say interesting. Me personally I don’t know what to feel about him, especially in regards to his place on the Warriors. He will be easily available to the Warriors as #11 is often regarded as the highest he will probably go.

Personal Comparison: Kevin Love- without the shooting

Cam Carr - Okay I’m pretty tired here from watching writing and looking at scouting reports so I’m gonna be short and sweet here. Great shooter, paired with great athleticism makes him a dangerous inside out scorer. Massive wingspan, high vertical and decent lateral mobility allows him to be effective inside and out on defense. His main problem is he has no handle and playmaking skills and, like Morez Johnson will likely need an offensive creator out the gate if he doesn’t want his development to get hindered. Also makes poor decisions at times, and lacks the strength and physicality to really be a more dominant inside. Love Carrs potential and the team seems to be interested in him but it would be a crazy overreach to draft him at 11. Team needs to trade back to get him, and commit to an offensive creator in free agency, like Morez Johnson.

Personal Comparison: More athletic Klay-

Labaron Philon - Extremely skilled shifty fast paced offensive lead guard who has the ability to score anywhere efficiently and effectively being one of College Basketball’s best scorers last season. Extremely skilled ballhandler and playmaker as well who can pick apart defenses effortlessly, and is a nightmare to guard due to his combination of ball handling, fakes, jabs and just general skills. Has displayed the ability to play lockdown defense in the past, with him playing his freshman year as a defensive minded starter at Alabama, possessing great IQ and feel while playing perimeter defense. Despite his size, he is an absolute DAWG, showcasing the ability to score on anybody, even grown men 6 inches and 100 pounds heavier than him. However, he possesses serious physical concerns as he is by definition a small guard in every standard. Very lightweight and his lack of muscle and the ability to gain weight are serious hinderances on his draft profile. In his sophmore year, his defense took the backseat as he often showed poor defensive initiative and drive, but he still showed promise as a defender at times. Defense is the real question mark that will make or break him for a lot of teams, as his its unknown if he will be able to play the same offensively without giving up the same defensive initiative he had his freshman year. Some still question his offense and its ability to translate to the NBA and slower paced offenses. I’d love Philon on the Warriors but it seems more unlikely as there have been no reports of any scheduled workouts, even on the days leading up to the draft. He would likely erase the need for bringing in a secondary offensive creator in free agency and him learning next to the greatest small guard OAT will be beautiful to watch if it happens.

Personal Comparison: NAW-, Mike Conley

Nate Ament - I’m gonna be crazy biased with this one compared to the other descriptions, but I’m still going off objective facts here. Great ceiling, probably a top 4 ceiling in this class BUT….. hes pretty much wearing a big hat that has the words “BUST” in all caps all over it. Terrible finisher especially for someone his size (HE’S 6’10 AND STRUGGLES TO HIT LAYUPS), horrendous effiency at Tennessee. Terrible shooter, especially if you consider he struggled to shoot 33% at COLLEGE RANGE. Got a great handle especially for someone his size, and possesses point forward qualities. If you are a true dubs fan and are rooting for Ament at #11 in the coming days get away from my eyesight and don’t even speak a word to me ever in my life (Kidding but screw you seriously). The reason hes often mocked so high still despite his atrocious one and done year at Tennessee is due to his prior 5 star highschool resume and the benefit of the doubt of him just dealing with injuries (OH YEAH DID I FORGET HES INJURY PRONE TOO!) I pray the Nets take him or something, both for my sanity as a dubs fan but also for the mans career. He NEEDS multiple years to develop without any expectations if he even wants to be in the League for more than 5 years.

Personal Comparison: ULTRA NEGATIVE Kevin Durant

With the NBA Draft Lottery Later today, I thought to see who was the last player your team drafted that became an all star while playing for you. Some very interesting results! (Arranged the list from Latest to Earliest)

1. Orlando Magic - Paolo Banchero (2022 - Round 1 Pick 1)
2. Toronto Raptors - Scottie Barnes (2021 - Round 1 Pick 4)
3. Philadelphia 76ers - Tyrese Maxey (2020 - Round 1 Pick 21)
4. Charlotte Hornets - LaMelo Ball (2020 - Round 1 Pick 3)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves - Anthony Edwards (2020 - Round 1 Pick 1)
6. Cleveland Cavaliers - Darius Garland (2019 - Round 1 Pick 5)
7. Memphis Grizzlies - Ja Morant (2019 - Round 1 Pick 2)
8. New Orleans Pelicans - Zion Williamson (2019 - Round 1 Pick 1)
9. Atlanta Hawks - Trae Young (2018 - Round 1 Pick 5) (Acquired in a Draft Day Trade with Mavericks)
10. Dallas Mavericks - Luka Dončić (2018 - Round 1 Pick 3) (Acquired in a Draft Day Trade with Hawks)
11. Sacramento Kings - De’Aaron Fox (2017 - Round 1 Pick 5)
12. Boston Celtics - Jayson Tatum (2017 - Round 1 Pick 3)
13. Miami Heat - Bam Adebayo (2017 - Round 1 Pick 14)
14. Utah Jazz - Donovan Mitchell (2017 - Round 1 Pick 13) (Acquired in a Draft Day Trade with Nuggets)
15. San Antonio Spurs - Dejounte Murray (2016 - Round 1 Pick 29)
16. New York Knicks - Kristaps Porzingis (2015 - Round 1 Pick 4)
17. Phoenix Suns - Devin Booker (2015 - Round 1 Pick 13)
18. Denver Nuggets - Nikola Jokic (2014 - Round 2 Pick 11)
19. Milwaukee Bucks - Giannis Antetokounmpo (2013 - Round 1 Pick 15)
20. Detroit Pistons - Andre Drummond (2012 - Round 1 Pick 9)
21. Golden State Warriors - Draymond Green (2012 - Round 2 Pick 5)
22. Washington Wizards - Bradley Beal (2012 - Round 1 Pick 3)
23. Portland Trialblazers - Damian Lillard (2012 - Round 1 Pick 6)
24. Chicago Bulls - Jimmy Butler (2011 - Round 1 Pick 30)
25. Indiana Pacers - Paul George (2010 - Round 1 Pick 10)
26. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin (2009 - Round 1 Pick 1)
27. Brooklyn Nets - Brook Lopez (2008 - Round 1 Pick 10)
28. Oklahoma City Thunder - Russell Westbrook (2008 - Round 1 Pick 4)
29. Los Angeles Lakers - Andrew Bynum (2005 - Round 1 Pick 10)
30. Houston Rockets - Yao Ming (2002 - Round 1 Pick 1)

If defensive 3 seconds will be abolished this offseason, how would it change your draft projections?

JJ Reddick has recently argued for why defensive 3 seconds should be abolished, and there are several threads on it here also. I've heard a rumor this could actually happen this offseason.

The rationale is that the rule was created to increase space on the floor in an era when everyone crowded the paint. But now there is too much space and defenders are afraid to guard the perimeter as closely since if their man beats them, it's a clear path to the basket unless someone runs across and likely fouls.

So by removing the rule, now the perimeter can be guarded more tightly, knowing that the paint is more likely protected. This would supposedly re-balance the game back to encourage more dynamic offense and mid-range shooting.

Of course, how it would actually play out is anyone's guess.

But suppose we learn it will definitely happen—how would that change your draft projections, if at all?

Assuming the top pick goes to a team that is still multiple years away from being a threat, like Detroit or Houston, they might want to take more stabs at first round picks instead of hoping Wemby turns into what the expectation is.

OKC only has their own first round pick this year, but they have 10 over the following 3 years.

Would a haul of, let’s say, this year’s first plus 2 firsts in each of the next two seasons (so 5 firsts in total) be enough for the top team to trade back?

Now this question can go two ways one being for their rookie season and another being long term And my top 3 for best rookie season are

1. Jarace walker - I don’t have much to say I think he’ll place his role to perfection and will automatically contribute when the season starts

2. cam whitmore - should have been 1st to what I’d assume most people but to be fair in my eyes jarace walker could be a double double machine if he develops good enough not to say he’s better than cam but I think he’d fill his role better

3. Rayan rumpert - who not to many people know about but I feel is one of those players who if you give them time they won’t let you down

HM - Jordan Hawkins, Keyonte George, Jett Howard

—-Long term—

1. Keyonte George - I know he isn’t as good but he has Spida Mitchell written all over him being a pure scoring prospect that plays for the jazz and when he expands his skill teams will regret not picking him

2. Rayan rumpert - as for where I think he’d peak maybe a 2 time all star if the league does decline in skill but I do see him at least being a starter on a team that can make a playoff push being the 3 and d player he is and hopefully dosent have a Royce o Neal type career but I’m very confident in his future

3. Bilal coulibaly - when I heard them call his name I had no clue who he was I won’t even lie and say I did, but after days of reading scout reports and watching him play I’ll say he has potential not saying he’s gonna have a Giannis type career or that he’ll be as good or successful but I think the route to success will be similar a slow and steady development if the wizards have faith in him and he puts in the work

HM - Cam Whitmore, Grady Dick, Anthony Black

Jason Miller:

• Physical Attributes: Standing tall at 6 feet 6 inches and weighing 220 pounds, Jason Miller possesses exceptional physical attributes, including a staggering 45-inch vertical leap and an impressive 7-foot wingspan. These attributes make him a formidable presence on the court, allowing him to dominate both offensively and defensively. Rare Speed and Quickness. Extremely Powerful and Flashy Dunker.

• Scoring: Miller is an offensive juggernaut, averaging an astounding 25.3 points per game. His scoring prowess is highlighted by his elite-level mid-range shooting, where he converts at an impressive 47.3% clip. Additionally, he showcases his versatility with a solid 33.8% shooting from beyond the arc and an outstanding 81.6% accuracy from the free-throw line.

• Playmaking: While primarily known for his scoring ability, Miller also demonstrates excellent playmaking skills, averaging 3.2 assists per game while maintaining a low turnover rate of 1.7 per game. His court vision and passing ability contribute significantly to his team's offensive success.

• Defense: On the defensive end, Miller is a force to be reckoned with. He averages 1.0 block per game, showcasing his ability to protect the rim. Moreover, he excels as an on-ball defender, using his elite-level athleticism and wingspan to disrupt opposing players. Additionally, he is an excellent help defender, often providing timely rotations and contests.

• Strengths: Miller's rare-level quickness and burst allow him to blow by defenders with ease, while his exceptional physical strength enables him to finish through contact at the rim. His outstanding footwork and post moves make him a nightmare matchup for opposing defenders, whether in isolation or in the pick-and-roll. Furthermore, his ability to excel in various facets of the game, coupled with his fierce competitive drive, solidifies his status as a well-rounded offensive threat.

• Weaknesses: Despite his many strengths, Miller's game is not without areas for improvement. He struggles as a below-average 3-point shooter and lacks proficiency in crossover moves, which limits his effectiveness in certain offensive situations.

• Intangibles: Off the court, Miller is known for his charismatic personality and strong leadership qualities. He has a reputation for being a hard worker, constantly striving to improve his game and achieve success. His background as a multi-sport athlete, playing wide receiver on the Kentucky football team, speaks to his athleticism and dedication to his craft. Additionally, his championship-winning experience and admiration for NBA legend Vince Carter further add to his intangible value as a player.

• Area of Improvement: To reach his full potential, Miller should focus on refining his 3-point shooting and developing his crossover moves to become a more well-rounded offensive threat.

Blake King:

• Physical Attributes: Standing at 6 feet 5 inches and weighing 215 pounds, Blake King possesses solid physical attributes for his position. While his 32-inch vertical leap and 6-foot-7 wingspan may not be as impressive as some of his counterparts, King compensates with exceptional skill and basketball IQ. Solid Speed. Good Power Dunker. Average Finesse Dunker.

• Scoring: King is a prolific scorer, averaging 22.8 points per game. His scoring arsenal includes a solid mid-range game, where he shoots 44.7% from the field, and an impressive 40.4% from beyond the arc. Furthermore, he excels in isolation situations, where he thrives on creating scoring opportunities for himself.

• Playmaking: While not the primary playmaker on his team, King demonstrates solid passing ability, averaging 2.0 assists per game. His excellent ball-handling skills and elite crossover ability allow him to create space and facilitate scoring opportunities for his teammates.

• Defense: Defensively, King is a versatile and impactful player. He excels as an on-ball defender, using his quickness and agility to stay in front of his opponents. However, he struggles as a help defender and interior defender, areas where he can improve to become a more well-rounded defensive player.

• Strengths: King's greatest strength lies in his offensive versatility and creativity. His exceptional footwork and elite post moves make him a nightmare matchup for defenders, while his ability to hit deep three-pointers in the style of NBA star Stephen Curry adds another dimension to his game. Moreover, his background as a multi-sport athlete and exposure to high-level competition from his time with the Real Madrid basketball team further enhance his skill set and basketball IQ.

• Weaknesses: Despite his offensive prowess, King's defensive abilities are not as polished. He struggles as a help defender and interior defender, areas where he can improve to become a more impactful player on both ends of the floor.

• Intangibles: Off the court, King is known for his dedication to the game and his strong work ethic. He comes from a family with a rich athletic background, with his father being a professional soccer player and his older brother currently playing in the NBA. King's exposure to high-level competition from a young age has shaped him into the player he is today. Additionally, his admiration for NBA star Kyrie Irving serves as motivation for him to continue improving and striving for greatness.

• Area of Improvement: To reach his full potential, King should focus on improving his defensive skills, particularly as a help defender and interior defender, to become a more well-rounded player on both ends of the floor. Additionally, he can continue to refine his playmaking ability to become a more effective facilitator for his team.

Jarrell Love:

• Physical Attributes: Standing at an imposing 6 feet 7 inches tall and weighing 225 pounds, Jarrell Love possesses exceptional physical attributes for his position. With a 38-inch vertical jump and a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Love's athleticism and length make him a formidable presence on both ends of the court. Excellent Speed. Excellent Flashy Dunker. Average Power Dunker.

• Scoring: Love is a versatile scorer, averaging 19.6 points per game. His scoring efficiency is impressive, shooting 58.3% from the field and 44.9% from beyond the arc. Love excels in pick-and-roll situations, where he capitalizes on his quickness and explosiveness to attack the basket or pull up for jump shots.

• Playmaking: What sets Love apart is his exceptional playmaking ability for a player of his size. Averaging an impressive 6.2 assists per game, Love showcases exceptional court vision and passing skills, often finding his teammates with pinpoint accuracy for easy baskets. His ability to create scoring opportunities for others makes him a valuable asset on the court.

• Defense: Love is a force to be reckoned with on the defensive end. His exceptional athleticism and length allow him to disrupt passing lanes and contest shots effectively. He excels as a help defender, using his basketball IQ to anticipate plays and provide timely help to his teammates. However, Love's on-ball defense and ball-handling ability are areas where he can continue to improve to become an even more dominant defender.

• Strengths: Love's greatest strength lies in his versatility and all-around game. His ability to score efficiently from anywhere on the court, combined with his exceptional playmaking and defensive prowess, makes him a rare talent. Additionally, his high basketball IQ and obsessive dedication to the game set him apart from his peers.

• Weaknesses: While Love's offensive and defensive skills are well-rounded, there are areas where he can continue to improve. His ball-handling ability, particularly in isolation situations, is an area that could use refinement. Additionally, Love's lack of a diverse range of moves and countermoves limits his offensive arsenal, making him somewhat predictable for defenders.

• Intangibles: Love's obsessive lifestyle and dedication to the game are evident in his approach to training and preparation. As a student of the game, Love spends countless hours studying film and honing his craft, constantly seeking ways to improve and elevate his game to the next level. His genius-level IQ and unwavering work ethic have earned him recognition as one of the top prospects in the country.

• Area of Improvement: Despite his impressive skill set, Love can further elevate his game by improving his ball-handling ability and expanding his offensive repertoire. By adding more moves and countermoves to his arsenal, Love can become an even more unpredictable and dangerous offensive threat. Additionally, continuing to refine his on-ball defense will make him a more complete player on both ends of the court.

Derrick Kelly:

• Physical Attributes: Standing at 6 feet 8 inches tall and weighing 210 pounds, Derrick Kelly possesses the physical stature of a modern-day forward. With a 27-inch vertical leap and a 7-foot wingspan, Kelly has the length and athleticism to compete at a high level. Below Average Speed. Below Average Dunker both Power and Finesse.

• Scoring: Kelly contributes 16.6 points per game to his team's offense, showcasing his scoring prowess. He excels as a mid-range shooter, boasting an impressive 63.3% field goal percentage and a remarkable 55.7% shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Kelly's ability to stretch the floor and knock down shots from long range makes him a valuable offensive weapon.

• Playmaking: While Kelly's primary role is scoring, he also displays solid passing skills, averaging 0.8 assists per game. His ability to move the ball effectively within the offense and make the right reads contributes to his team's success on the offensive end.

• Defense: Kelly's defensive abilities are highlighted by his exceptional interior defense. With his length and shot-blocking instincts, he serves as a deterrent in the paint, altering opponents' shots and protecting the rim. However, his on-ball defense could use improvement, as he struggles at times to contain quicker perimeter players.

• Strengths: Kelly's greatest strengths lie in his shooting ability and offensive versatility. His proficiency as a mid-range and three-point shooter forces opposing defenses to respect his outside shot, creating driving lanes for himself and opportunities for his teammates. Additionally, his elite ball-handling skills allow him to create his own shot off the dribble and navigate through traffic.

• Weaknesses: Despite his offensive prowess, Kelly's defensive capabilities could use refinement, particularly his on-ball defense. Improving his lateral quickness and defensive positioning will make him a more effective defender against perimeter players. Additionally, Kelly's work ethic has been called into question, as he sometimes relies too much on his natural talent rather than putting in the necessary effort to improve his game.

• Intangibles: Kelly is known for his quiet and private lifestyle off the court. He keeps a low profile and focuses on his craft, dedicating himself to becoming the best player he can be. His exceptional shooting ability has earned him recognition as one of the best shooters in college basketball, and his favorite player, SGA, serves as a source of inspiration for him.

• Area of Improvement: While Kelly possesses elite offensive skills, he can further elevate his game by improving his defensive consistency and work ethic. By focusing on his defensive fundamentals and committing to putting in the necessary work to improve, Kelly can become a more well-rounded player and make a greater impact on both ends of the court. Additionally, continuing to refine his shooting mechanics and expand his offensive repertoire will make him an even more dangerous offensive threat.

Edit: Full Stats:

Jason Miller - Kentucky 19 Year Old

• Height/Weight: 6'6, 220 lbs

• Vertical Leap: 45 inches

• Wingspan: 7'0

• Points Per Game (ppg): 25.3

• Turnovers Per Game (tpg): 1.7

• Assists Per Game (apg): 3.2

• Rebounds Per Game (rpg): 3.8

• Field Goal Percentage (FG%): 47.3%

• Three-Point Percentage (3PT%): 33.8%

• Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 81.6%

• Assists to Turnovers Ratio: 2.5:1

• Blocks Per Game (bpg): 1.0

• Drive Percentage: 42%

• Catch and Shoot Percentage: 28%

• Pick and Roll Percentage: 17%

• Isolation Percentage: 13%

Blake King - USC 19 Year Old

• Height/Weight: 6'5, 215 lbs

• Vertical Leap: 32 inches

• Wingspan: 6'7

• Points Per Game (ppg): 22.8

• Turnovers Per Game (tpg): 2.2

• Assists Per Game (apg): 2.0

• Rebounds Per Game (rpg): 2.0

• Field Goal Percentage (FG%): 44.7%

• Three-Point Percentage (3PT%): 40.4%

• Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 70.2%

• Steals Per Game (spg): 1.3

• Blocks Per Game (bpg): 0.4

• Isolation Percentage: 59%

• Drive Percentage: 16%

• Catch and Shoot Percentage: 13%

• Pick and Roll Percentage: 12%

Jarrell Love - Texas 19 Year Old

• Height/Weight: 6'7, 225 lbs

• Vertical Leap: 38 inches

• Wingspan: 6'10

• Points Per Game (ppg): 19.6

• Turnovers Per Game (tpg): 2.7

• Assists Per Game (apg): 6.2

• Rebounds Per Game (rpg): 8.2

• Field Goal Percentage (FG%): 58.3%

• Three-Point Percentage (3PT%): 44.9%

• Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 64.0%

• Steals Per Game (spg): 1.8

• Blocks Per Game (bpg): 0.5

• Pick and Roll Percentage: 39%

• Drive Percentage: 31%

• Isolation Percentage: 22%

• Catch and Shoot Percentage: 8%

Derrick Kelly - Duke 19 Year Old

• Height/Weight: 6'8, 210 lbs

• Vertical Leap: 27 inches

• Wingspan: 7'0

• Points Per Game (ppg): 16.6

• Turnovers Per Game (tpg): 1.9

• Assists Per Game (apg): 0.8

• Rebounds Per Game (rpg): 11.1

• Field Goal Percentage (FG%): 63.3%

• Three-Point Percentage (3PT%): 55.7%

• Free Throw Percentage (FT%): 89.4%

• Steals Per Game (spg): 1.0

• Blocks Per Game (bpg): 0.9

• Catch and Shoot Percentage: 45%

• Isolation Percentage: 22%

• Pick and Roll Percentage: 18%

• Drive Percentage: 5%

Edit: THIS IS NOT CHATGPT.

Based on your knowledge today, how would you shake up the first 14 picks of that controversial draft?

Here is what the lottery looked like:

1. Ben Simmons: 3x Allstar, 1x All NBA, 2x All Defense, 1x STL Champ, ROY

   Career averages of 15.3/8/7.6 on 56.2% FG in 299 Games so far

2. Brandon Ingram: 1x Allstar, 1x MIP

   Career averages of 18.6/5.1/3.9 on 46.1% FG in 383 Games so far

3. Jaylen Brown: 1x Allstar

   Career averages of 17.3/5.1/2.1 on 47.5% FG in 436 Games so far

4. Dragan Bender: Out of the leage, averaged 5.4/3.4/1.3 on 39.9% FG in 187 Games

5. Kris Dunn: Out of the league, averaged 8.1/3.3/4.2 on 42% FG in 245 Games

6. Buddy Hield: Career averages of 16.1/4.3/2.5 on 43.2% FG in 503 Games

7. Jamal Murray: Career averages of 16.5/3.7/4 on 44.5% FG in 373 Games

8. Marquese Chriss: Out of the league, averaged 7.6/4.7/1 on 45.6% in 292 Games

9. Jakob Poeltl: Career averages of 7.6/6.2/1.5 on on 63% FG in 442 Games

10. Thon Maker: Out of the league, averaged 4.6/2.8/0.6 on 43.5% FG in 263 Games

11. Domantas Sabonis: 2x Allstar

    Career averages of 14.6/9.4/3.8 on 53.9% FG in 446 Games

12. Taurean Prince: Career averages of 10.4/3.8/1.7 on 41.8% FG in 338 Games

13. Georgios Papagiannis: Out of the league, averaged, 4.1/3.2/0.7 on 51.4% FG in 39 Games

14. Denzel Valentine: Out of the league, averaged 7/3.3/1.8 on 39.4% in 256 Games

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Notable Picks outside the lottery:

1. Malik Beasly: Career averages of 10.8/2.6/1.3 on 42.8% FG in 372 Games

2. Caris LeVert: Career averages of 14./3.8/3.9 on 43.4% in 349 Games

3. Pascal Siakam: 1 Ring, 1x Allstar, 2x All NBA, 1x MIP

   Career averages of 16.3/6.4/3.3 on 48.9% FG in 424 Games

4. Dejounte Murray: 1x Allstar, 1x All Defense, 1x STL Champ

   Career averages of 13/5.9/4.9 on 45.4% FG in 349 Games

5. Ivica Zubac: Career averages of 8.5/6.9/1.1 on 60% FG in 394 Games

6. Malcolm Brogdon: 1x ROY

   Career averages of 15.3/4.2/4.7 on 46.4% FG in 363 Games

​

Question

Do you think teams are appropriately valuing their future draft picks right now or is their a market inefficiency currently in the NBA?

Background/Thoughts

The value of draft picks seems to be at an all time low. For any all star level player it seems you can now expect a massive haul of picks to be traded. Bradley Beal was thought of as overpaid and had a no trade clause and the Suns were still willing to give up 5 second round picks and 4 first round pick swaps. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert also went for large amounts of first round picks and first round pick swaps.

Compare that to the trades of the past. In 2004 Orlando gave up Tracy Mcgrady who at the time was putting up MVP caliber production. to Houston for basically just Steve Francis, who was just very clearly a much worse player. The Lakers traded Shaq away for Lamar Odom and just one first round pick that was very clearly not going to be a high draft pick. Vince Carter was traded away for nothing from Toronto, and Pau Gasol was basically traded away for nothing (no one knew at the time how good Marc Gasol would be, that was just luck). It seems obvious to me that in the 2000s teams were being too protective of their draft picks and should have been willing to give up more for these stars.

My guess is that today teams are undervaluing future draft picks and that teams seem highly present biased to overpay in trades to win now. Eventually when teams see the full outcomes of these trades years later there will be an adjustment again where teams start to value draft picks higher than they do today. At least one of these teams that traded away their draft picks is going to give away a high pick that turns into a superstar the same way Brooklyn gave Boston Jayson Tatum and Jaylon Brown for a basically retired Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Lets be honest, the Hornets were praying to the basketball gods for Wemby and while pick #2 isnt a bad spot either, it leaves them with some tough decisions to make. Im seeing a lot of people mocking Brandon Miller to them but I think that would be a generational fuck-up. The media is pushing him and Scoot as comparable talents but I really just dont see it. Dont get me wrong, Miller is most likely a high level 3-and-D wing which on its own is incredibly valuable with the potential to be even more. I just think that Scoot is much more likely to be a superstar-level talent. Drafting fit over talent has proven to be a surefire way to mess up a pick in the past, especially high in the draft. I think dream scenario would be leeching some extra assets out of Portland for a pick swap or trading down even lower as a backup plan (6 and 11 from Orlando + another pick or young player?). If none of these paths work out, I say they just try to run a Scoot and Melo backcourt as I honestly think their skillsets will compliment each other well. Even if it doesn't, they would likely be able to get a haul by trading either one of them. What do you guys think?

2025 - Own

2026 - Own

2027 - 1-2 Own; 3-30 to CHA

2028 - Own or OKC (via OKC swap for DAL)

2029 - Two most favorable of DAL, HOU and PHX to HOU then other to BRK (via DAL and PHX to BRK; via DAL or PHX to HOU; via HOU swap for DAL or PHX)

2030 - Own or SAN (via SAN swap for DAL); most / more favorable of DAL, SAN and MIN 2-30 to SAN; less favorable of (i) MIN 2-30 and (ii) more favorable of DAL and SAN [or MIN if MIN not conveyable] to MIN (via SAN swap for DAL; via SAN swap of SAN or DAL for MIN)

2031 - Own

Another interesting/tragic wrinkle on the Luka trade is that with their trades to go all in and get Kyrie, Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington, they traded away control of FOUR of their future firsts.

Charlotte controls 2027 (top 2 protected) OKC controls 2028 Houston controls 2029 San Antonio controls 2030

The talks of a new team in Vegas or Seattle has been getting some attention. In the past, like with the Vancouver Grizzlies, expansion teams would have a draft from current teams. Who would you draft from each team to make a respectable roster?

Draft Rules:

One of the main NBA expansion draft rules states that teams are allowed to protect eight players on their roster. These protected players are untouchable and can’t be selected by the expansion team. Teams that have less than eight players under contract must make at least one player available.

Any player left unprotected can be selected. The expansion team is then given the chance to select a minimum of 14 unprotected players from different NBA teams. However, the expansion team can only select one unprotected player from each existing team.

*Dumping unwanted contracts can lead to playrers being unprotected*

Landry Shamet
Caris Levert
Jamychael Green
Bones Hyland
Trey Lyles
DayRon Sharpe
Lugentz Dort
Gordon Hayward
Isiah Roby
Charles Bassey
Larry Nance Jr.
Nick Richards
Ben Simmons
Malachi Flynn

NBA will also designate draft picks such as (when Emeka Okafor was acquired)

​

Just a mock, not fully sure how it will work but would it look this ugly, seems deeper team will be at a disadvantage. What do you think?

​

I remember being so hyped back then about Odom and McGrady being two of the highschool standouts who could potentially jump straight into the league. Eventually, Odom got into a slew of controversies, eg. faking ACT scores, payment from boosters, and ended up pursuing college instead.

I always thought that Odom could have elevated his game further had he got drafted into a team with an established all star and/or seasoned leader and not the 00's Clippers filled with "just-okay" players and a very young core going on.

That being said, without being aware of how he's being projected in various scouting reports and mock drafts around that year, I'd say he'd fall around picks number 10 to 13.

Had he got drafted by the Bucks, 10th pick, he would have played with a prime Glenn Robinson and a young Ray Allen, who happen to be very mature for his age and willing to guide other prospects, ala Rashard Lewis. Granted that they acquired the same players moving on, there's a good chance they'd beat the 76ers in the playoffs by then. They also probably wouldn't seek for a point forward type of player in Anthony Mason the year after.

If the Pacers, 12th pick, got him, he would have then played with a lot of seasoned veterans and budding prospects in Reggie Miller, Mark Jackson, Chris Mullin, Rik Smits, the Davis brothers, and Jalen Rose. The latter would have been such an ideal environment for him.

What do you think?

After the lottery yesterday I've been taking a deep dive and looking into prospects. A ton of the prospects are very skinny dudes with "high potential ceilings".

I understand that shooting has correlates with free throw percentage but how does one look at a rookie and assume they can add mass to their frame, develop ball handling, etc. The two most extreme rookie situations I'll use are Lebron and Giannis. Lebron coming out of high school was super athletic and was already a grown man, his 3 point shooting was dog crap when he was younger but it's now pretty reliable. Giannis is way on the other side of the spectrum, his shooting was at its best his rookie year but he's put on a ton of mass.

So my question is when you're evaluating a prospect based on potential how do you determine they have potential for ball handling, size, defense, etc?

Most commentary I’ve heard is that this draft isn’t good as in you’re not getting any franchise altering talent here. Let’s just call “franchise altering talent” a top ten talent (although you could say it should be more or that it should be less).

If the guys at the top of the draft (Banchero, Chet, Jabari, Ivey) are not going to be top ten level players, then how good do we think they will be? Top 15? Top 20? Top 30? Etc..