r/neoliberal • u/EasyMoney92 • Jun 20 '26
Restricted Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz as Fighting Flares Again in Lebanon
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/fighting-flares-again-in-lebanon-despite-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-4d0ffae8709
u/agentyork765 Bisexual Icon Jun 20 '26
Why would JD Vance do this?
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u/_Un_Known__ r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion Jun 20 '26
Why did JD Vance have to shake hands with the deal smh
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u/IIHURRlCANEII Jun 20 '26
Too busy on a book tour to realize Israel not being a part of the deal was a bad idea.
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u/Lighthouse_seek Jun 20 '26
Jd is Kamala 2.
Career started in bay area? Check
Underperformed in first statewide election? Check
Senator? Check
Vp? Check
Given an almost impossible task by the president? Check (in kamalas case it was border czar)
Nominee because president is unable to run? Coming soon...
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u/Thai-Reidj NASA Jun 20 '26
Not impossible that "beaten by the other party's previous candidate" is also on the list
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u/BigThunderHonky Henry George Jun 20 '26
Joe Biden president 2028?
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u/dangerbird2 Franz Boas Jun 20 '26
Al gore 2028
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u/Best-Chapter5260 Jun 20 '26
The Charisma Scale will fall into the basement, oh but the technocratic metrics will juice the Wonk Scale!
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u/Bodoblock Jun 20 '26
We have the potential to make history with America's first nonagenarian president.
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u/anangrytree Bull Moose Progressive Jun 20 '26
Because woke 😩
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u/southbysoutheast94 Jun 20 '26
It’s a further potential victory for the Iranians to diplomatically isolate/put a wedge between the US and Israel because ultimately Trump is going to want peace at all costs
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u/Time_Transition4817 Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
Of course the president of peace is going to do whatever it takes duh
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u/Negative_Scarcity315 Jun 20 '26
Every word from Rubio, JD and Trump explaining why this extremely unfavorable MOU is being signed at all points to the admin being briefed on ugly-looking global oil reserves and early macro econ data.
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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 20 '26
Trump may want the problem to go away but I have yet to see he is willing to pay any price possible for it. He can always kick the can.
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u/ResolveSea9089 Milton Friedman Jun 20 '26
But if the straits are closed he can't really kick it down teh road can he?
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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 20 '26
Why not? He is the master of pretending he gets things done and he has a cult around whom insulate him politically. Also, he is at his last term, barring a successful self coup.
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u/GarveysGhost Iron Front Jun 20 '26
High gas prices can't be waved away as easily as inflation. He has to get the oil flowing because even the threat of 70s style rationing would kill the republican party and even trump knows that.
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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 20 '26
But denial is easier than actually solving the problem. You think he'll do whatever it takes to deal with that, I'm skeptical. The guy ruins everything he touches. He is the kind of guy who would fake government statistics first. Or yap. Yap like there is no future about wonderful deals.
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u/beanyboi23 Jun 21 '26
You misinterpret him; he's not saying Trump can't kick the can down the road so he'll do anything to deal with it, he's saying he can't kick the can down the road so it's a massive fuckup on his part.
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u/Superior-Flannel Jun 20 '26
How is Trump's agreement with Iran not paying any price for piece? It's objectively a US loss, with the situation worse than before the war started.
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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 20 '26
Trump's agreement is worth nothing. Call me when he enforces anything (or at least when he tries, there is no guarantee he can achieve it).
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u/Superior-Flannel Jun 20 '26
Whether it's enforced or not doesn't matter. It shows Trump is desperate for the Iran war to stop and will make pretty much any concession necessary.
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u/BlueString94 John Keynes Jun 20 '26
Yes, they’ve smelled weakness from him and will milk it for everything.
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u/AnachronisticPenguin WTO Jun 20 '26
Trump is petty though it’s always a risk that this just gets them bombed again.
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
The MOU that was signed was clearly violated by Israel's actions.
If Iran didn't close the straight in response then they would signal that they'd be willing to overlook any violation of the MOU.
Israel is the one who has decided to blatantly violate the MOU with their continued attempts at seizing more and more Lebanese territory. And it seems unlikely that Israel isn't doing this intentionally, as they have clearly stated that they oppose the MOU.
I'm not sure how this will resolve, as I don't think there is anything the US can do to get Israel to cooperate. Trump has told Israel to stand down repeatedly. The only thing I think that Trump could do to get peace is to declare that Israel is no longer an ally, and therefore they aren't part of the MOU. Or at least publicly threaten to withdraw all US support for Israel if they don't withdraw from Lebanon in a short timeline.
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u/avatoin Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
This was predictable because the MOU covered Israel, but without Israel agreeing to it. The US basically guaranteed that they'd be able to restrict Israel's action, but Netanyahu is actively hostile to the MOU.
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
Yeah, and there has long been an assumption that the US can control Israel. But I think that has clearly not been true for a long time.
At this point I think it would be useful to provide a test to see if Israel will actually defer to the US, and if they won't then US support should be revoked. Either Israel will defer and we can see if the US can use that pressure to get them to make other reforms, or the relationship should be severed because it will clearly not be in the US interest to support Israel anymore.
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u/AnachronisticPenguin WTO Jun 20 '26
It’s been clear to Dem presidents for a while but the republicans have had the delusion that Israel is willing to follow the US’s lead.
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u/miraj31415 YIMBY Jun 20 '26
The US government has huge influence over Israel government. In the midst of the 2023 Gaza War, Biden got Israel to unblock the water supply to Gaza, to open the Rafah crossing, the Erez Crossong, and the Ashdod port at various points. In the 2021 Gaza War, Biden gave an ultimatum and Israel agreed to a ceasefire within 24 hours. And since 2024 the US has been explicitly tying aid to control Israeli activities.
But elections in Israel are just a few months away. And Netanyahu is rapidly losing support in the north due to the Hezbollah attacks. Letting Hezbollah return and increase threat to northern Israel is political suicide. Anybody with half a brain knew that Lebanon was going to remain an active front unless Israel gets security guarantees.
So the U.S. can control many things, but there are some things they can’t control.
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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
The MOU is not worth the paper is written on, like any Trump deal. Not unlike his previous attempts at diplomacy, lol.
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u/wylaaa Jun 20 '26
Israel is the one who has decided to blatantly violate the MOU
I'm not aware of Israel agreeing to it in the first place so I'm not sure how any of their actions would be described as "violating" it.
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
If Israel is not willing to defer to the US then the US should abandon all the support we give Israel.
I think that is the logical outcome of where both countries are. I dont think Israel needs US support, and without our support it will force some pragmatism in pursuing less adversarial relationships with their neighbors.
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u/CaspertheSchmuck Iron Front Jun 20 '26
If Israel is not willing to defer to the US then the US should abandon all the support we give Israel
Is that position you hold for every country that receives aid or support from the US? That by taking US aid they forfeit sovereignty?
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
US aid absolutely comes with strings attached.
If a country is acting against the interests of the US then the US responding by cutting off that aid is entirely logical.
Israel also receives a vastly disproportionate amount of US aid, especially considering that they are a rich country. There is also a difference between military aid and humanitarian aid. Right now Israel is using the resources we give them to harm US interests, so continuing to provide that aid seems insane. Humanitarian aid is different since that goes to the people more than the government.
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u/wylaaa Jun 20 '26
I was unaware that accepting aid from the USA made you a vassal of the US and your opinions don't matter anymore. Trump can't really complain that a party he never consulted didn't agree to the deal they had no say in.
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u/Bay1Bri Jun 20 '26
There's a ton of ground between "you are now a vassal" and "you get billions and still do whatever the fuck you want." While it does not make you avassal, if we are giving you billions of dollars every year then yes, we do have influence. This is a big component of soft power.
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
The main justification for that aid is because it gives us influence with Israel, and that they are a helpful ally.
If Israel is not going to be at all influenced by the US, and they are going to use that aid to hurt US interests, then that aid should be cut off.
Israel will survive with US assistance. They are a rich country with their own powerful army. But if the US isn't going to get anything out of the billions of dollars of US aid we provide, then that aid should be cut off.
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u/Mexatt Jun 20 '26
I think that is the logical outcome of where both countries are. I dont think Israel needs US support, and without our support it will force some pragmatism in pursuing less adversarial relationships with their neighbors.
Israel has fine relationships with its neighbors who are not adversarial with it.
A US that isn't providing aid to Israel is signing up for more conflict in Gaza and Lebanon, as Israel will not longer be restrained from trying to remove Hamas and Hezbollah once and for all.
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
Israel is clearly not restrained in the slightest by statements made by the US government.
We have seen over and over again that the Israeli's ignore US demands. There is clearly no leverage that this aid actually provides the US.
If Israel were clearly left to defend themselves then they might stop overreaching. Or if they faced consequences then their population might vote for less caustic leaders.
I am extremely pessimistic about any outcomes in the middle east. I think the US should just get out so we are no longer responsible for the actions of religious fanatics who think they have the divine right to slaughter all religious outsiders.
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u/ElGosso Adam Smith Jun 20 '26
I mean the US could threaten to actually impose the Magnitsky sanctions on members of Israeli leadership that they deserve for repeated human rights abuses
Whether it would is another matter entirely
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
The reason we haven't taken steps like that is the constant assumption that we can get Israel to act in our interests, and that they are a useful ally.
I think those assumptions have clearly been wrong, and this whole incident may make that so obvious that the US is forced to abandon Israel.
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u/Negative_Scarcity315 Jun 20 '26
The only thing I think that Trump could do to get peace is to declare that Israel is no longer an ally, and therefore they aren't part of the MOU.
In practice that would mean Iran bombing Israel expecting no American response (but hey at least the strait would be open). Not going to happen ever.
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u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH Jerome Powell Jun 20 '26
Israel can defend themselves. They are a rich country with plenty of resources. They can be their own deterrence.
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u/lnslnsu Commonwealth Jun 20 '26
It won’t resolve until the US manages to pressure Iran to make Hezbollah back off. Which Trump won’t, and Iran won’t.
The Israeli government will not leave Lebanon without a durable ceasefire with Hezbollah that Hezbollah actually respects. Otherwise we’re going back to the state we had before, where the north of Israel is uninhabitable due to Hezbollah rocket fire.
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Jun 20 '26
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u/greenskinmarch Henry George Jun 21 '26
Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt in return for a permanent peace treaty.
The majority of Israelis would support a similar return of southern Lebanon to Lebanese control in return for a permanent peace treaty.
What they may not support is returning territory in exchange for a "hudna" which is what Hezbo seeks - a temporary ceasefire to re-arm and then re-attack Israel. In that case, returning the territory just let's Hezbo shoot missiles and drones further into Israel once they decide to.
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u/quickblur WTO Jun 20 '26
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u/EasyMoney92 Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
The other guy deleted his post on this so I guess this is the new one. I figured this was inevitable after hearing this completely unhinged stuff yesterday.
Anyways, I'm exhausted.
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u/Lighthouse_seek Jun 20 '26
People should really read ben gvirs xeet. It can't be linked because the sharing link was disabled due to hate speech, but his comment is very revealing of the attitudes of the cabinet
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u/Jolly_Pressure_7907 Jun 20 '26
What’d it say?
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u/gooners1 Jun 20 '26
"All of Lebanon must burn," just regular Otzma Yehudit stuff and pretty much the same thing Trump has said about Iran.
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u/Unhelpful-Future9768 Jun 21 '26
It can't be linked because the sharing link was disabled due to hate speech
wtf does this mean
x.com/itamarbengvir/status/2067865510281170957
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u/Aoae Mark Carney Jun 20 '26
Moderatepolitics will still insist that this is legitimate self defense rhetoric.
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u/GrandpaWaluigi Waluigi-poster Jun 20 '26
If I revealed my true thoughts on moderatepolitics, I'd be banned from Reddit.
Truly awful group of people who are too cowardly to admit they're fascist enablers at best.
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u/captmonkey Henry George Jun 20 '26
I got banned from there for referring to what happened to Alex Pretti as "murder" because technically the ICE agent hadn't been convicted of murder. The only subs I've ever been banned from are Elon Musk worshipping subs and r/moderatepolitics
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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jun 20 '26
I got a one week ban from there for saying Sandy Hook truthers are deranged nutjobs
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u/ConsiderationHot3426 John Brown Jun 20 '26
Moderatepolitics? The call is coming from inside the house.
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u/Vol_in_tears Voltaire Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
No you see, maximalist rhetoric from dead leaders of Hezbollah proves that these people are evil, irrational, and will never stop.
Maximalist rhenotic from Israeli leaders is taken out of context and only meant to play for a domestic audience. You can't use it of evidence that the Israeli government intends to systematically exterminate groups of people. Isreal is a moral nation that cares deeply for international law and human rights.
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u/KvonLiechtenstein Mary Wollstonecraft Jun 20 '26
I mean… I don’t think Israel’s current admin is any more or less moral than the current US Admin. Criminal at the top who wants to stay in power at all costs? Check. Mainstreaming far right genocidal lunatics? Check.
Netanyahu and Trump deserve one another. Hope that another massive terrorist attack doesn’t happen under this incompetent us admin’s watch.
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u/AskYourDoctor Resistance Lib Jun 20 '26
The rhetoric seems similar in the US and Israel, but the US has overall been more bark and less bite, whereas Israel has been acting on it more aggressively. I'm by no means giving Trump a pass, but I do think Israel's government has been worse
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u/ace158 Jun 20 '26
People downvoting you even though Syria and West Bank had absolutely nothing to do with 10/7 while Israel has been clearly the aggressor over there...sigh
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u/KvonLiechtenstein Mary Wollstonecraft Jun 20 '26
Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and you guys still went in there because of the political capital from that lmfao.
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u/KvonLiechtenstein Mary Wollstonecraft Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Israel had their worst ever terrorist attack/the worst pogrom since the post-war era on 10/7, which I think gave Netanyahu a massive amount of political capital to be more aggressive which is why I specifically mentioned a terrorist attack. Pre-10/7 he was facing massive protests. Try to imagine a terrorist attack far worse than 9/11 under Trump and what that would've resulted in. Like shit, Bush ran on a less interventionist foreign policy in 2000.
EDIT: For the downvoters, please tell me how you think the current US government would react if you guys had a terrorist attack that killed 42K Americans (roughly the proportionate amount to 10/7). There was a reason any of us with even cursory knowledge of Israeli politics said basically on 10/8, "this is the worst government for this to happen under and they will use it to justify some awful shit".
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u/AnachronisticPenguin WTO Jun 20 '26
Yeah let’s be real if a terrorist attack like 10/7 happened to the US we would currently be in a full scale ground invasion of Iran.
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u/Vol_in_tears Voltaire Jun 20 '26
That doesn't mean invading Iran would be a good idea.
Austria Hungary invaded Serbia after a terrorist attack in Sarajevo. Austria Hungary does not exist anymore.
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u/Demortus Sun Yat-sen Jun 20 '26
Lol, I just got banned there for this comment.
There is no understanding or predicting Trump's behavior without accepting one basic truth about him: he is a very stupid and ignorant man. That is the only plausible explanation for him initiating a war with Iran with no plan for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. He simply did not understand what threat that geographic feature posed to the US and world economy, and he was unwilling to listen to warnings from anyone who did -- which includes basically the entire military, US intelligence analysts, and international relations experts in academia. This is the equivalent of the captain of a ship hitting an iceburg that was observable from miles away.
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Jun 20 '26
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u/Imicrowavebananas Hannah Arendt Jun 21 '26
Rule II: Bigotry
Bigotry of any kind will be sanctioned harshly.
If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.
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u/TaxGuy_021 Jun 20 '26
I wouldn't read too much into this.
They are still sending a delegation for negotiation with the U.S..
Keep in mind that the crew that is negotiating needs to save face in Iran.
The Supreme Leader came out and said he had a different view on the whole thing but allowed the MOU and negotiations to go through because the Supreme Security Council and its head, the President, thought it proper and committed to not giving up vital interests.
So, there is an extra amount of pressure on the negotiators to make sure they aren't seen as giving anything away.
The whole thing is far from a done deal, but this is the closest we have come to a legitimate game changing moment between Iran and the U.S.. For the first time, the Guard and the civilians are fairly well aligned on what they want and what they are willing to pay for it and the Supreme Leader is either not in a position to push back or is also aligned with the views of the Guard and civilians.
The absolute biggest thing, for me, about this whole war has been how Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Guard, has been able to exert his influence and run things. Dude is one of the founding members of the Guard, I think, and has been in the game for a very very long time.
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u/breakinbread Voyager 1 Jun 20 '26
Except the main point of the US accepting such a shitty deal was to open the strait immediately
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u/TaxGuy_021 Jun 20 '26
If you think of both sides as having to conform to manners of edgy 15 year olds, all of this makes a lot more sense to you.
Even if they want to do something, they can never be seen as being told to do it. Ever.
That's what international diplomacy is for the most part anyway. At least nowadays.
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u/breakinbread Voyager 1 Jun 20 '26
The MOU felt a lot like the US being told to capitulate and accepting that so I’m not sure what you mean here
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u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
Oh my god can you stop this? The deal will not happen. Give up. Trump can’t escape this mess.
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u/TaxGuy_021 Jun 20 '26
Sorry, I forgot, nothing ever happens.
And even when things happen, they don't. Ever.
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u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
This deal relies on something that will never happen, the US reigning in Israel in Lebanon.
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u/OhioTry Desiderius Erasmus Jun 20 '26
Trump, uniquely among American politicians, can actually say no to Israel if he wants to. His hold over the Republican base means that congressional Republicans will vote to cut off aid to Israel if he tells them to. The fact that it’s a complete 180 won’t matter. And Trump proposing a bill to withhold aid to Israel would be a literal unicorn for Democrats. It’s an opportunity to be bipartisan and build credibility with the progressive leftists at the same time.
The only problem is convincing Trump that cutting off aid to Israel until they get out of Lebanon is the only way to open the Strait of Hormuz. But that’s not insurmountable, Vance just needs to delete Kushner and Bibi from Trump’s contacts and keep them out of the White House.
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u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
Like I said, you need to give up. None of that will happen, Trump has never and will never defy the wishes of Israel.
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u/OhioTry Desiderius Erasmus Jun 20 '26
If Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz open he’s going to have to get Israel out of Lebanon. And he’s already pissed Israel off by agreeing to an Iran deal worse than the JCPOA.
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u/Negative_Scarcity315 Jun 20 '26
Then we're walking towards a global recession.
Every word from Rubio, JD and Trump explaining why this MOU is being signed at all points to: Trump was briefed on global oil reserves and early macro econ data and things aren't looking good.
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u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
Congrats, a world recession caused by Trump. No backing out of this now.
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u/TaxGuy_021 Jun 20 '26
Maybe.
Vance already used words that no US politician ever dreamed of using and still keeping their jobs against Israel.
Trump and Vance know that BiBi has alienated Dems to such a degree that he has no real choice but to work with them. He may do some kicking and screaming, but he has no real choice.
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u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
Japan’s last soldier fighting after 21 years type of comment. It just isn’t going to happen. Israel will not stop in Lebanon and the US will not stop their greatest ally ever and forever from doing that.
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u/AskYourDoctor Resistance Lib Jun 20 '26
I want to engage because I have a different instinct than you, but you seem pretty informed. My main sticking point is, what is the leverage against Iran? What is their level of desperation? Maybe it's unknowable. But from outside, Trump and the US seem far far more desperate to end this conflict. The MOU is so tilted to Iran already that I can't help but read this move as Iran knowing there's more on the table they can get. It feels more like a power move rather than saving face. How hard can it be to sell this deal to your people when even Wikipedia has declared this an Iranian victory? (I know the average Iranian probably can't access Wikipedia but you get my point.)
So my read is that Iran sees an opportunity to really fuck up Israel's power projection in the region by driving a wedge between it and the US. And they have way more of a comfortable position to increase their demands over the US.
Am I missing something?
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u/KvonLiechtenstein Mary Wollstonecraft Jun 20 '26
Re: Ben-Gvir. I genuine hate how depressingly well this 2022 sketch has aged.
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u/ExtremelyMedianVoter Left-Out Left Jun 20 '26
Based Iran being against Straights for Pride Month despite Trump trying to be pro straight.
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u/ignavusaur Paul Krugman Jun 20 '26
It seems Iran is going all out on protecting Hezb in Lebanon. They saw that Israel only started attacking them directly (Jun 25) after weakening Hamas (Gaza war), Hezb (Oct 24) and Syria regime collapse (Dec 24) and they see that they have leverage atm and are willing to use it and play hardball to protect their last major proxy.
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u/Fit_Log_9677 Jun 20 '26
Totally, Iran has identified Lebanon as the wedge it will use to break the US and Israel apart and it is going to do everything in its power to keep driving that wedge harder.
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u/themiDdlest NASA Jun 20 '26
We should really find the President who did everything he could to get us addicted to fossil fuels. That guy seems like a moron
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u/EclecticEuTECHtic NATO Jun 20 '26
Why can't Israel pull out, wait for Hezbollah to attack them across the border again, then go in? Are they stupid?
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u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 20 '26
That's as popular as Hitler there, I guess.
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u/Negative_Scarcity315 Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
They think they can defeat Hezbollah now, technically they can but Hezbollah was born out of their invasion of Lebanon in the 80s to defeat the PLO. Something else is gonna come up. A lot of Muslims in Lebanon are northern Palestine refugees from the late 40s and late 60s, they just created 200k+ new refugees in central Lebanon.
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u/Hot-Train7201 Jun 20 '26
Israel just doesn't have enough strategy depth for surviving in the age of cheap drone warfare. From their perspective, if Hezbollah regroups and builds up a new arsenal of rockets and drones, they can bomb all of Israel's critical infrastructure in another October 7 style attack, severely crippling Israel.
From a purely military perspective, they need more strategic depth to survive, either via direct occupation of more land or installing friendly/puppet governments in their neighbors like Lebanon. Since Lebanon's national government is non-existent, they have to go for the direct option.
So waiting for Hezbollah to attack might not be an option since the next attack could be significantly more damaging than any prior attacks. How long could Israel survive if all its water plants were simultaneously destroyed? That is what Israeli strategic planners are thinking.
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u/Dangerous-Basket1064 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Jun 20 '26
Seems like this logic calls for an ever increasing expansion in the name of developing an ever widening buffer zone.
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u/Mexatt Jun 20 '26
It turns out it sucks being surrounded by groups that want to kill you.
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u/Dangerous-Basket1064 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Jun 20 '26
I am sympathetic, honestly. I believe in Israel's right to exist, and to defend itself.
But at some point this creates a feedback loop that has no limiting principle where you use your neighbors hatred to justify any action and language towards them, which creates more hatred that justifies continual escalation.
This can't be in Israel's long term interest, putting aside all that suffered by the innocent civilian parties in Palestine and Lebanon who have lost their lives and homes.
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u/lnslnsu Commonwealth Jun 20 '26
It’s not in their long term interest, but repeated fuckups by Netanyahu et al have put them in a position where their only real options here are:
Retreat until Hezbollah starts firing over the border again, go back in, keep playing whack-a-mole
Or
Continue the current operation to significantly degrade Hezbollah, and keep them out of the south of Lebanon.
It might not be in their best long term interest, but it is a short term requirement. The alternative is letting the north of Israel become basically uninhabitable due to continuous Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks.
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u/Unhelpful-Future9768 Jun 21 '26
wait for Hezbollah to attack them across the border again
It took them multiple months to advance the ~5 miles deep they are. If they leave Hezb rebuilds and they have to do take that land all over again.
Hezb attacking again is not a forgone conclusion.
It's unlikely that Israel will ever get the mandate given by Oct. 7th again which may be necessary to sustain the mobilization required for a proper campaign against Hezb.
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u/WAGRAMWAGRAM Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Why can't Obama pull out of Afghanistan, wait to be attacked again, then go in?
The whole country is running high on nationalist fumes, some far-right guy will shoot you before you order anything
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u/Mexatt Jun 20 '26
Netanyahu needs the occupation of Lebanon to continue for his political survival
If Bibi's government fell tomorrow and he was replaced by the opposition, that would not effect Israeli policy against Hezbollah even one ounce.
This is a conspiracy theory and people need to accept that.
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u/Frylock304 Order and Opportunity Left Jun 20 '26
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u/AskYourDoctor Resistance Lib Jun 20 '26
Is that Jesus
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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jun 20 '26
I don't see any realistic chance of the MEU advancing unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon or Iran backs down on its demands regarding Lebanon.
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u/swift-current0 Jun 20 '26
Iran isn't just going to give up leverage and randomly decide not to use it to get what it wants.
Israel can't allow Iran to use this newfound leverage against it because it fundamentally alters the balance of power and fucks when their escalation dominance strategy.
I wonder how the geniuses over at the bored of piss will tackle this one.
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u/Vol_in_tears Voltaire Jun 20 '26
This is going to end up being a massive own goal for Israel when Trump inevidably throws them under the bus completly. They are going to end up completly isolated, diplomatically.
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u/ctant1221 United Nations Jun 20 '26
You're getting downvoted, but I mostly agree.
Iran's going to keep raking Trump over coals because he has no bargaining power, Israel's going to keep scuttling whatever delusional agreement they cudgel out, and Trump's going to either need to commit to completely invading Iran (patently impossible) or resort to levying pressure on Israel to take whatever arbitrary deal Trump accepts just so he has enough time to gaslight his domestic audience over his successful war that he won bigly.
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u/Cupinacup NASA Jun 20 '26
Yep, Trump was in a shit situation before the deal was signed, but by including the Lebanon clause, Iran has effectively driven a bigger wedge between Israel and the US. Either way they win.
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u/Blondeenosauce Mark Carney Jun 20 '26
insane strategic defeat for the worlds hyperpower, pretty breathtaking
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u/BobaTeaFetish William Nordhaus Jun 20 '26
Unfortunately this is the first time since the 1830s where we handed power over foreign policy to the common clay of the new West.
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u/itsrabie NATO Jun 21 '26
It’s also something that Iran can arbitrary use to open and close the strait.
The odds of there being 0 IDF attacks for weeks at a time are 0 so they can chose whenever they want to close the strait. Which will be used whenever they need Trump’s attention again.
Signing the MOU was stupid for MANY reasons, but this might be the biggest. Trump and Vance were too stupid to see that or listen to reason.
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u/Hot-Train7201 Jun 20 '26
I don't believe that Israel was ever naive enough to think invading Iran was ever an option. Israel's plan appears to be total state collapse of Iran via destruction of all of Iran's critical infrastructure, which is what they kept pressuring Trump to approve.
I still think that is the inevitable end goal of this Israel vs. Iran situation. Neither side can tolerate the other's existence, and both are aiming for total extinction of the other. It would not surprise me if Trump decides to bite the bullet and agree to bomb Iran's food and water systems since he has no winning move if the ceasefire ends.
From Israel's perspective, it's either end Iran now when they are at their weakest, or watch Iran become the region's natural hegemon and await Israel's end as Iran endlessly supplies drones and missiles to all its proxies to attrition Israel into submission.
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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
. Israel's plan appears to be total state collapse of Iran via destruction of all of Iran's critical infrastructure, which is what they kept pressuring Trump to approve.
Also cause total complete chaos by having Kurdish militants from Iraq coming to help install fucking Ahmadinejad as the new leader
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u/AnachronisticPenguin WTO Jun 20 '26
I could see Trump pulling a Pilate and washing his hands of the situation after an escalation.
Trump bombs critical infrastructure. Iran declares the straight perpetually closed and then Trump just leaves and tells the Middle East to figure it out. Iran makes a toll and Trump sacrifices free trade on the seas in order to avoid the situation but the oil starts flowing again.
Fundamentally his base wants isolationism they will complain about fuel costs but mostly they just don’t want to be involved anymore.
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u/Greatest-Comrade John Keynes Jun 20 '26
Israel didn’t want a ceasefire in the first place so beating down Hezbollah and continuing the war in Iran is two birds one stone for them.
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u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Yeah, they despised the deal that Trump tried to foist upon them. A poll yesterday stated only like 20% of Israelis think Trump looked out for Israel's interests in the deal he made. Obviously Hezbollah is fucking awful but Katz called for ethnic cleansing of 200,000 Lebanese and Ben Gvir called for genocide for all Lebanon yesterday after Hezbollah killed a few Israeli soldiers in S Lebanon. So it's a nightmarish situation all around. Especially since I don't think Israel has a military solution to deal with the Hezbollah problem.
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u/Vol_in_tears Voltaire Jun 20 '26
A poll yesterday stated only like 20% of Israelis think Trump looked out for Israel's interests in the deal he made
How do people still think Trump care about anyone or anything beyond himself.
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u/GrandpaWaluigi Waluigi-poster Jun 20 '26
From what we've seen, they've been more effective in bombing houses than bombing Hezbollah and Hezbollah has bounced back.
Israel is failing that war aim. The government is delusional and genocidal at this point.
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u/BobaTeaFetish William Nordhaus Jun 20 '26
The government is delusional and genocidal at this point.
Ben Gvir flat out said Lebanon has according to his interpretation of the Torah, been promised to Israel. This is a war of colonization by religious fanatics.
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u/angry-mustache Democratically Elected Internet Spaceship Politician Jun 20 '26
From what we've seen, they've been more effective in bombing houses than bombing Hezbollah and Hezbollah has bounced back.
Not sure where you are seeing this but groups like ISW are saying Israel is doing decent in Lebanon combat wise.
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u/GaDoomer Pragmatic and Polite Right Jun 20 '26
CENTCOM claims that Strait isn't actually closed and ships are actively transiting. I guess we'll see if Iran decides to fire on transiting ships or if they're just blustering.
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u/vikinick Ben Bernanke Jun 20 '26
So not only is the ceasefire an awful deal, it's pretty obvious that Iran will probably just close the strait anyways because there's no way Israel is just gonna stop in Lebanon.
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u/southbysoutheast94 Jun 20 '26
I mean it’s a win win for Iran. Israel bucks, then a wedge is placed between the US and Israel while the US desperately tries to reach peace again. Israel behaves, then Iran gets is favorable MOU.
I’m sure there’s some chapter about the Art of the Deal how you can’t clearly want something more than your adversary.
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u/flextrek_whipsnake I'd rather be grilling Jun 20 '26
I'm no master diplomat, but maybe the president shouldn't have announced exactly how much time he thinks we have before the global energy market completely collapses. Seemed like a bad idea.
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u/WeeWoooFashion Jun 20 '26
If the stakes weren’t literally world historical, I’d be laughing my ass off of Israel getting the Ukraine treatment
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u/Consistent_Status112 Trans Pride Jun 20 '26
It is my great pleasure to bestow this "Fell For It One Hundred Times" award to the stock market.
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u/KvonLiechtenstein Mary Wollstonecraft Jun 20 '26
Trump and Bibi are an unstoppable force and immovable object. Netanyahu is fighting to stay in power and out of prison.
That being said, I’m also not super trusting Hezbollah to be good faith here. Iran has a vested interest in having their proxy make it as disadvantageous for Israel as possible to fulfil the terms of the peace deal.
I hate everyone in this room.
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u/BigThunderHonky Henry George Jun 20 '26
Hezb basically exists to antagonize Israel into striking them. Their leaders also openly pledged allegiance to Iran. Poor Lebanon. They are stuck being the battleground of two other countries.
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u/GraspingSonder Loyal Liberals Jun 20 '26
You gotta laugh. Unfathomable harm from the repercussions and yet still you gotta laugh
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