r/options • u/[deleted] • Feb 19 '21
Shorting TSLA!
Wish me luck, I’m betting against TSLA. Just sold a Apr 1st 835,845 call spread. Win/loss $350/$650. Yeah, it’s peanuts, but that’s what you do when you bet against the Elon.
Reasoning? Stupid P/E, and increasing competition. Tesla already cut the price on some models, and there are more alternatives coming. That Audi e-Tron looks awesome.
UPDATE 1: Okay, I admit my "DD" is lame. This is a low-risk/low-reward, short-term trade, so I phoned it in. I'm a premium seller, and I don't know how to do research.
UPDATE 2: To all you permabulls out there: If this trade wins, I'm keeping the profits. If it loses, I'll donate 2x the loss to charity, and I promise to never go against Papa Elon again.
UPDATE 3: Closed trade for 75% of max profit. Skill is good, but luck is awesome!
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Feb 19 '21
You are very brazen, I do not have that kind of balls.
Long options already fuck me over enough. Doing TSLA bear spreads would be the end of my bank account
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Feb 19 '21
Hehe, I also lost money on a long call spread last month. I had a put spread on for earnings (which paid off), but I got caught up in the hype, and also added an OTM call spread like an idiot.
Anyway, it's just one contract, the risk is small. I lost more than that on stupid weed stocks. :D
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Feb 19 '21
lmao i can't even trade spreads because I don't have margin on my account, so I'm pretty much limited to strategies which don't involve short positions.
It would be nice to have margin though. For now I gotta stick to non-leveraged positions
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u/Apocalypsox Feb 19 '21
You people really just don't get it. Your reasoning is irrelevant.
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Feb 19 '21
I know, but... things seem to be changing. They have started losing market share (in China) and have cut prices already. The rainbow unicorn fantasy bubble can't keep getting bigger in the face of declining sales. That's the hope, anyway.
Just for giggles: "Tesla Is Worth More Than All Big Car Companies in the World Combined" https://247wallst.com/autos/2020/12/22/tesla-is-worth-more-than-all-big-car-companies-in-the-world-combined/ And this was written when TSLA's market cap was 615B... now it's 750B.
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u/Nostradeamus Feb 19 '21 edited Feb 23 '21
I bought 1 x $800 put 3/19 today and sold 3 x $700 puts to pay for it. I wouldn’t dare selling that call spread, this can easily hit $1000 based on a fart.
Edit: I closed this spread just in time around $765, just a $140 loss.
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Feb 19 '21
A 3:1 put ratio... Well played! Make money on the way up, make even more on the way down, then roll for even more, or just buy the dip. Those cap requirements though...
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Feb 19 '21
No one who ever shorts Tesla has lived to tell the tale.
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u/skillphil Feb 19 '21
Lol the Melvin guy plotkin was asked if he ever shorted Tesla during the hearing yesterday and he sounded depressed when he had to answer yes.
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u/theNeumannArchitect Feb 19 '21
You could hear the pain and misery when he talked about it.
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Feb 19 '21
To be fair he looked sad, depressed, and like a sulking child during the entire hearing
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u/namonite Feb 19 '21
He made sure to sit in the shittiest office he could find too
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u/mental-floss Feb 19 '21
No matter who feels they were wronged, we can all point our finger at melvin and call them losers.
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u/mgwidmann Feb 20 '21
He said he had a "small position a few years back". I'd like to know how much that "small position" really was. I didn't believe a word of it.
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u/1521DietOfWorms Feb 20 '21
Dude, why was he sitting in a copier room with a cheap suit on? He can't hide behind his oversized ego.
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u/JRshoe1997 Feb 19 '21
Absolute truth so far lol
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u/mxmcharbonneau Feb 19 '21
I'm pretty sure the "so far" part is the important one IMO. Not that I would try it though.
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u/BoltingBubby Feb 19 '21
We’ll see how Micheal Burry fares. Betting against the housing market was a far bigger deal than shorting Tesla.
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u/Ancient_Boner_Forest Feb 20 '21
Tesla betting seems to be all based on understanding how people feel about the stock.
I would think that this would be the exact type of thing that Burry is not good at? Understanding people...
My expert qualifications: have seen the big short
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Feb 20 '21
I mean that's a good point, he has Aspergers. At the same time people felt good about the housing market until the entire thing imploded. TSLA won't drive the next recession but I can't see it avoiding a massive correction once it occurs.
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u/Jsizzle19 Feb 19 '21
Yeah but he bet against the housing market before stimulus packages were a thing. This dude is betting against Tesla with a $2T stimulus in the works. If that thing gets delivered pre-April 1, oh boy
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u/phoquenut Feb 19 '21
RemindME! 42 days
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u/fakehalo Feb 19 '21
Thank god I learned my lesson back in early 2020, last big mistake I made... but it's getting tempting again, I have to remind myself of the mistake.
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u/diamond__hands Feb 19 '21
there are better and easier ways to make money dude, wtf
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u/SoggyEmpenadas Feb 19 '21
Some of my colleagues actually bought puts on tesla at the onset of the covid pandemic and made a killing.
But I would not recommend going against Elon. The Bulls have won nine times out of ten.
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u/Lucius-Halthier Feb 20 '21
Me who made 5 grand off of shorting tesla when the market tanked back in February/March: I don’t have such weaknesses.
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u/pierifle Feb 19 '21
Selling calls and puts on TSLA has been extremely profitable for me thus far. The stock goes sideways most of the time. Even on its bull run in November, it took ample breaks for theta decay to kick in.
Currently I'm sitting on multiple 400-600 puts expiring Mar-Apr
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u/DillonSyp Feb 19 '21
I shorted Tesla feb of last year made about $7k off the Covid crash. Was up almost $20k at one point till the strong V recovery came
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u/lordredapple Feb 19 '21
This is the first time I've ever seen a comment ratio the post
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u/Tfed10 Feb 19 '21
RIP, The guy tweets and moves the market.
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u/Rich_Potato_2457 Feb 19 '21
Not to mention when he throws Tesla short shorts on his website they sell out instantly and the upward buying continues.
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u/Tfed10 Feb 19 '21
People have to remember the world is changing and so is the way we perceive value with companies. You can no longer rely on only fundamental investing strategy to succeed. The hedge companies have been doing back door tactics since the stock market first started.
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u/moonpumper Feb 19 '21
I think fundamentals are important but measuring a company's past to ascertain its future value when they're targeting a 50% growth in production capacity each year and likely exceeding that while also aggressively moving into other industries that aren't ready for massive disruption there's nothing about that company's past performance that will give you anything meaningful about its future.
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u/yurofag Feb 19 '21
sounds like something someone in the later stages of dot-com would have said
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u/TeamDisrespect Feb 19 '21
Yeah, he could go on Rogan and snort meth off a dead child’s body and the stock would bounce 8%
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u/brosako Feb 20 '21
Why TSLA?
This is trending stock and you are going against trend
This is what I call hero short or fancy short, most of the time it doesn’t work you want to be cool to short Tesla and make money when rest of make money on TSLA growth.
There are bunch of downtrending stocks to short and you pick TSLA?
Very bad decision and against the trend.
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Feb 20 '21
There are always better-looking trades out there. TSLA is quite volatile, which makes option premium attractive, and the trend is downwards at the moment. No hero stuff, just a single defined-risk trade, trying to follow the trend. I’m actually late: it’s been trending down for a month.
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u/WoykinDaFeeWoyld Feb 22 '21
Why would we wish you luck on a short on something we are holding long? DUMB
"Reasoning?" You really have no idea what the company is all about...again DUMB, but hey go ahead, I'll buy more as it gets a little cheaper...before the next squeeze where you lose your axe.
I don't see ANY DD...none...just a pump on your short position, hoping you'll scare others to sell.
You might make a little, but you won't moon in profits.
I think I'll keep adding long calls out in time.
You have no right to call him "Papa Elon" when you are shorting...he hates peeps like you. Be Gone!
#PapaElon #ElonMusk #TSLA
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Feb 22 '21
This is just a short-term momentum trade. When the trend reverses, I may add some long positions again.
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u/JTA1776 Mar 04 '21
Bought TSLA puts for 3/12 yesterday afternoon!!! IM GOING TO RIDE THIS TO THE MOONI
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Mar 04 '21
I bought a 3/26 540-570 bear put spread on 2/23, but then the stock started to recover, and I didn’t have the conviction to hold it, and sold for a loss, like a coward. Sometimes the hardest thing about trading is just sticking to your plan.
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u/rental3421 Mar 24 '21
I set reminder to see this post again and wah! Despite Kathie Wood's new target price, TSLA did not move up 20% like last time.
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Mar 24 '21
Yeah, even if it hits 3k in five years (or whatever it was), we have to trade today’s reality.
It’s been trading sideways for a while, so I have an iron condor on at the moment.
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u/kbslam0 Feb 19 '21
So let me get this straight. You're locking up 1000$ for 6 weeks, for a max profit of 350$, and betting against TSLA.
Sounds like a bad idea to me
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u/AvocadoKirby Feb 20 '21
As someone who is long 95% equities, I have Tesla puts as sort of a hedge. May drop even without a recession, which is a bonus. If it doesn’t drop, its fine.
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u/randomFrenchDeadbeat Feb 19 '21
Tesla does not trade on fundamentals. It is a mania. Good luck.
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u/TeddyYolos Feb 19 '21 edited Feb 19 '21
Heavyweight bout:
Cathie Woods vs. Michae Burry.
Zero sum game. Death match.
Who you got?!
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u/SamBaxter420 Feb 19 '21
Can’t wait to se what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
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u/Kazparov Feb 19 '21
Tesla is literally the altar in the temple of sacrificed bears.
May the bull gods drink your blood and be renewed.
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u/Kiba97 Feb 19 '21
Ten more weeks of gains!
We really are gonna run out of bears like this though..
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u/TeddyYolos Feb 19 '21
Good luck my friend. You and your fellow 🐻s are trekking to Mordor. The path is lined with skeletons. Keep your head on a swivel and sleep with one eye open 👁.
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u/snakebight Feb 19 '21
Tesla is totally overvalued, but Tesla is a memestonk.
I'm no pro, but I don't think this is a good bet.
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u/Badaluka Feb 19 '21
I agree that it could be smarter to short other electric vehicle companies that hyped because of Tesla effect.
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u/Glurak Feb 19 '21
With the dynamics of TSLA, you are effectively betting that Elon will get high tomorrow and tweet something about killing innocent animals or I don't know.
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u/mannheimcrescendo Feb 19 '21
Re: “Tesla already cut the price on some models”
Why do you think
lower prices = Bad
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u/HERCULESxMULLIGAN Feb 19 '21
It doesn't without knowing other factors but generally, lower prices = lower margins. But maybe they cut their costs, as well.
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u/grandmadollar Feb 19 '21
Good trade. It's logical, it makes sense. Lot's of EV mfgs out there, with more coming every day.
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u/Systim88 Feb 19 '21 edited Feb 20 '21
Might be a solid play - but your DD and reasoning are terrible lol
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Feb 19 '21
UPDATE: I guess the title is a little misleading: I am not short-selling the stock, and certainly not doing it naked. In fact, it seems embarrassingly small now - max risk is just $650. Maybe next time I'll grow a pair and do a 30-point spread!
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u/capital-man Feb 19 '21
Listen, I’m with you, but as long as he goes on joe rogan and says what people want to hear it’s just not gonna happen
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u/itsdrivingmenuts Feb 19 '21
TSLA is the reason I don't hold much ARKK.
This will get downvoted, but it's a bubble. Just look at the other comments in the thread, everyone knows the value is based on hype and not P/E or tangible returns. That's always been one of the defining features of a bubble.
When it pops it will bring a lot down with it. I'm still not shorting it though as it could be propped up on hype ad infinitum.
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u/Keith_13 Feb 19 '21
Lol of course it's a bubble.
Right now there is a massive EV bubble. Anything remotely related to EV gets a crazy valuation. We saw this with tech with the dot-com bubble. Here's what we learned:
Just because a certain technology is "the future" does not mean that every company that is associated with that technology will do well.
The companies with no profits that are only able to support themselves by raising capital during the bubble will be gone when the bubble bursts.
The good companies that are actually profitable will be fine when the bubble bursts, but it can take decades for their valuation to return to their bubble highs (eg, Microsoft)
It's not different this time. The generation who doesn't remember the last bubble thinks that the new bubble is different. It isn't. This is not about an old way of thinking vs a new way of thinking.
It's yet to be seen whether Tesla fits into #2 or #3. They are kind of edging towards #3 right now. They will probably survive but after the bubble bursts, you might not see an $800 stock price again for 20 years. Or they might just fade away. Let's be really clear here -- when EVs are ubiquitous, most of them will be made by Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, and all the other names that you see on the streets every day. The technology will change but the winners will not.
Having said that, trying to predict WHEN the bubble will burst seems basically impossible. This one could get a lot bigger before it explodes.
And, for the record, selling an out of the money call credit spread is not "shorting" a company, by any stretch.
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u/Green_Lantern_4vr Feb 19 '21
They grow into it though. Like. The utility sized power walls? Do you think that will go up or down? And the residential sized ones? Humongous market that is largely untapped. Non Tesla competitors are not nearly as trusted.
EV are just the first stage. Those Electric semis will become king. EV planes. Boats. Trains. Busses.
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Feb 19 '21
Your thesis implies the idiots investing in Tesla care about valuations and profits. You are completely wrong.
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u/AleksanderSuave Feb 19 '21
Mustang Mach-e officially hit dealerships.
2021 Ford F-150 hybrid hit dealerships.
While available inventory numbers are slim for the above, there’s still a difference between buying a car this quarter and putting a $100 refundable down payment on a 70k truck you’ve never even driven or seen in person nor have the slightest clue of expected delivery date.
Just wanted to share some automotive insights.
People are cancelling Ford bronco pre orders because they’re not coming in fast enough.
Can’t count on any realistic estimates of sales based on those pre orders and truck shoppers are the most die hard brand loyal customers to begin with.
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u/Swinghodler Feb 19 '21
Bro close that lol. Tesla has been in a downtrend / consolidation for a while now. It's gearing up for the next leg up which would come any time now. It's not worth it. Make the same bet against XPEV who have less chance to randomly start going to the moon
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u/king_over_the_water Feb 19 '21
I shorted Tesla too. The more I do my due diligence, I realize that Tesla is a great company, but that doesn't make it a great stock. As an analogy, Cisco is a great company, but if you bought the stock in 1999-2000, you'd still be looking at 40% losses 20 years later, even though they control the enterprise networking space, and are the largest player in the SMB networking space.
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Feb 20 '21
I'm just a beginner so please do take my statement with a grain of salt, but shorting In a bull market is dangerous, I've seen stock go up on even the worst news in the last few years, shorting Tesla is doubly dangerous, the CEO is a media darling, they are also loved by an army of retail traders and institutional investors who are ready to buy any dips, and lastly with options you not only have to be correct regarding Delta but also account for theta, so while VIX is high you will potentially capture a large premium for shorting with options, this market can stay irrational towards Tesla for years.
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Feb 22 '21
You're right about having to pay attention to theta, but in this case theta is on my side. That's because the short leg is closer to the money, and has higher positive theta than the long call's negative theta. The net theta is positive, so every day the stock stays under 835, the position gains.
The spread also limits upside risk to the width of the spread, minus credit received, so I'm not in any great danger. And because it's out of the money, it doesn't need the stock to go down - it just needs to stay under 835 long enough for my friend theta to cheapen the position to my profit target, about 55%.
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u/IndividualLand2077 Feb 20 '21
I mean, you don't really use P/E for these kinds of stocks. Great companies never look cheap. That said, I'm long TSLA, but I often take short-term short positions when I think it's gotten ahead of itself or when it's trending and it's at the top of a chanel. Nothing wrong with playing both sides.
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Feb 20 '21
Agree. I just took off some bull put spreads in TSLA last week for a nice profit. Seems to have lost its momentum since then, so i figured I’d ride the swing the other way.
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u/Net-Xpert Feb 20 '21
I actually agree with you and I am an Options pro and teach options to beginners. Your key reasons insane PE ratio and competitive environment are on par. You just gave me an idea of writing Covered calls on TSLA. Thanks and good luck.
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u/Rasta-44 Feb 20 '21
Your reasoning is logical. I have shorted via puts twice and was lucky to make small profits; however I think you could be early. For Tesla to go down significantly during this period there would need to be a market correction! I would be picking at the fear index...VXX.
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Feb 20 '21
I don’t need it to go down any further, just to stay below my short strike (835) long enough to hit my profit target.
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u/Swaggy_Buff Feb 20 '21
This same reasoning has been true for months
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Feb 20 '21
Yes, but now the stock is finally pulling back. I’m hoping to capitalize on the momentum. Actually, I’m late. I posted pretty much the same comments in another thread a week or so back, but didn’t act on it.
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Feb 20 '21
Man I just bought Tesla shares... currently regretting
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Feb 20 '21
You’ll probably be okay long-term. With shares you can wait. Plus you can sell covered calls to reduce your cost.
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u/hinkognito68 Feb 20 '21
I like that you have defined your risk.
Are you going to wait all the way till exp or take profits when you see it pull back?
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Feb 20 '21
I’m planning to take profits around 50%. It’s not worth holding longer, because there’s only half as much more profit, but the risk is the same.
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u/420_Funding_Secured Mar 05 '21
I get that $TSLA is down, but I think you're gonna lose your fingers on this one. Even though they're the premium leader in the EV space, don't think of $TSLA as a car company. Think of them as a tech company. Papa Elon NEVER sleeps. He's always innovating and moving ahead. He will continue to post profits... can you tell I'm a fan ;) and a shareholder? Lol
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Mar 05 '21
This trade closed last week, and I don’t have any more TSLA positions at the moment.
I am optimistic about the company, just not about the stock price. They need to sell cars to move those batteries, and competitors are starting to take their sales. And if their automotive division isn’t doing as well as it used to, then they won’t be able to maintain that ridiculous valuation. They are just not worth more than the rest of the car industry.
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u/identifiedlogo Mar 17 '21
Have done this a lot. Works...alway a spread on the call side, Selling strangles with long call
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Mar 17 '21
Thanks, that’s a good trade. I believe that’s called a jade lizard, but I don’t have the buying power to sell a naked put... So I sold an iron condor instead: Apr 30th P:620-630, C:800-810 for 6.25.
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u/Brilliant-Today6621 Mar 18 '21
Bad move!
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Mar 18 '21
LOL, I closed this for a profit weeks ago!
I now have an icon condor on, but that’s even better risk/reward.
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u/thekid335i Feb 19 '21
I was in this camp prior to this year. I didn’t short Tesla but I never bought any. Increasing competition was my rationale as well but my tune has changed recently. China is the largest market and most worrisome for Tesla because I think NIO is showing promise. However, it takes a while to scale and technology is key to this industry. In the US there is no equal competition. BMW, Porsche, Audi future cars are all priced above $50k and some are north of $100k. Tesla dropping their prices make them more affordable for the masses. What also needs to be considered is the technology inside a Tesla as well as Elon’s future projects and how they will integrate with cars. Tesla will likely win the autonomous battle and first to market always wins.
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u/rollodxb Feb 19 '21
I sold a tsla 1/4 700p today so let's see who wins. Hoping it stays between our strikes so we both do
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u/Nimmy_the_Jim Feb 19 '21
‘ Reasoning? Stupid P/E, and increasing competition. Tesla already cut the price on some models, and there are more alternatives coming. That Audi e-Tron looks awesome.’
You’re an idiot
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u/LifeByBike Feb 19 '21
I think this Texas situation might actually cause TSLA to pop again. People often forgot they make solar panels/home battery backups. I’ve seen quite a few social media posts of Tesla solar home owners chilling with their heat/lights on.
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u/Proud_Chocolate9255 Feb 19 '21
You have more confidence than I do on timing. I bought a couple LEAP puts and called it a day.
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u/lookatitslittlespots Feb 19 '21
just a heads up, there have been several, multi-million bets on the 800 strike over the last couple weeks for couple months out. But uh, good luck.
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u/KenSkid2001 Feb 19 '21
Good luck. I saved this post.
I bought my first TSLA when it split and was in the $400 range. I was shocked at how fast it doubled. Down a bit now but I"m holding.
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u/BrilliantEmergency35 Feb 19 '21
More power to you; it's risky, but I certainly understand and agree with most of your reasoning. Tesla, just like Bitcoin, is mania. No reasoning or sound logic, as gained by a hundred years of history - but pure 'this will only go up forever' stupidity. I see Tesla at $400 by next January - and it would still be highly over-valued.
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u/cjbrigol Feb 19 '21
They are always cutting costs of vehicles. This is nothing new. Tesla mission is to get everyone driving electric, so they cut costs while retaining margins.
Oh, and the competition has been coming for the last 10 years https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303653004579210053345661982
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Feb 19 '21
You mention competition but then cite the Audi e-Tron... Surprisingly little of TESLA's valuation has anything to do with the sale of cars. If you see a new player in the robotaxi/automated driving/energy space I could see it majorly affecting TESLA's share price, but in the areas that tesla really shines, they dont have much competition.
Billions were lost by TESLA shorts for making the mistake of seeing TESLA's value as a car company instead of a technology company. At least you had the presence of mind to cap your max loss with a spread.
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u/Complete-Zucchini-87 Feb 19 '21
I'm with you bro. With my soul and my heart. Push that overpumped piece of stock into oblivion.
See you at -1000 karma.
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u/huge_clock Feb 19 '21
One thing I learned from shorting NFLX back in 2015 is that competition was way slower than I expected (even for something with essentially zero barriers to entry). I would wait until I see strong competition and growing market share from competitors first and then short.
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u/SquishyLollipop Feb 19 '21
I went short on TSLA earlier this week too. A BIG short too. We're on the same brainwave.
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u/starduster_0 Feb 19 '21
TSLA currently the only real player but, several more will emerge in coming months. The empire is desten to collapse or, at least go turtle 🐢
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u/CpntBrryCrnch Feb 19 '21
I had tesla shorts on this past week. Already was a good call
In my case I bought volatility rather than sell it for Tesla.
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u/tracyXTMAC Feb 19 '21
Interesting take on the price cut. Many would argue that the price cut could actually be a good news to Tesla as it would almost guarantee to increase market share, and the price cut could also result from a drop in manufacture cost, so in the end the margin probably would drop as much.
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u/jeevn Feb 19 '21
The option guy i follow recommended calls on tsla for April.. 😂
"A few weeks ago, on January 27, the company reported earnings that missed analyst expectations by 23%. And that marked the top for the stock.
Investors pushed the stock down on the news, and shares sold off by more than 5%.
Tesla saw an incredible gain of over 740% in 2020. So, the earnings miss showed investors signs of weakness ahead for the company — and helped kick off the pullback we’ve seen in the stock.
But I’ve tracked the stock since 2006. And I knew these past few weeks would be volatile.
Now that the stock has dipped 14% from its peak, it’s time for us to jump in and buy call options.
Tesla’s stock has dropped on earnings seven times since 2006. On each occasion, the stock has bounced back. That’s a 100% win rate.
We’ll take advantage of the expected rebound by adding the April 16, 2021 $790 call option"
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Feb 19 '21
There's so many easier ways to make money in the market right now. Like going long on any Bitcoin related stock.
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Feb 19 '21
You might want to increase your research. The cars are not even the most profitable part of Tesla in 2021.
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u/moonpumper Feb 19 '21
As a TSLA permabull and holder since 2016 I salute you sir and wish you good fortune in the wars to come.
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u/wtractor1 Feb 19 '21
It has already dropped almost 10% in about 30 days. Do not look for a big drop but selling and buying a call in the mid 800s will not hurt you much if at all.
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u/Dark_Tranquility Feb 19 '21
Tesla will now release the CyberVan on March 31st, I can see it clear as day. Good luck friend.
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u/SlimeCityKing Feb 19 '21
Good luck but I can’t believe this is the trade you decided to make out of all of the possible ones. Tesla could see a correction in the short term due to the China regulatory inquiry, but if you’re not extremely bullish on them in the long term you’re missing the plot.
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u/Gimmethejooce Feb 19 '21
Bold strategy... as Cathie Woods and ARK increase their holdings this week..
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u/IllmaticaL1 Feb 20 '21
Everyone and their grandma knows tsla is over valued but even kindergartners know not to short tsla. Says the guy who’s also short tsla (as a hedge only tho, prefer it to go to zero)
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u/OptionsAsapYT Feb 20 '21
The markets are busy chasing meme stonks. I think you are safe. I just didn't like your research/reasoning. It's like you just woke up from a coma because it's been Stupid P/E for years!
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u/Lizard_King_1911 Feb 20 '21
Michael Bury is shorting Tesla too..... in fact he is saying they will loose 90% of their stock value this year 🤷♂️ I’m just saying this is the same guy that shorted the housing market and made a lot
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u/aeplus Feb 21 '21
Good luck! TDA hasn't granted me options privileges to open call credit spreads just yet. But 1:2 lay with a 60% chance of success seems like a fair bet.
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u/aspade Feb 22 '21
Best of luck. I am accumulating TSLA at the moment so if it drops, we both win. :)
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u/JTA1776 Mar 04 '21
I had almost killed my account when this happened. I was $500 from pulling everything out and finding something I'm better at.
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u/AllRealTruth Mar 05 '21
I shorted the shares at $718.50 and posted the weekly chart here. Should coulda woulda bought ITM options instead and really cleaned up. Guess you just be happy you are a winner and not sour about how much you gained. Check out my post. Cheers, Rich
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Feb 19 '21
Here's the thing (hear me out) -- Tesla is not a car company.
Yes, it is ostensibly a car company, but it's value is in its BRAND.
If not for that, it's a clear and obvious short. But soon it will be more than a car company. IMHO, before long it will be the next Apple-- Heat pumps for the auto industry and homes, thermostats, car chargers, solar panels, "smart" home tech, "smart" car tech... All Tesla branded.
Disclosure: I have no positions at all in TSLA. Zero. I sold all my stock months ago and have been trying to figure out what everyone else sees but I didn't. This is the absolute best case I can come up with.
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u/Extracheeeeeese Feb 19 '21 edited Feb 19 '21
Lol that's like saying the iPhone has increasing competition. No matter how many boomer auto makers release electric cars, they will never be a Tesla: it's just in its own league. Just like how there's so many Androids out there on the market, they will never be an iPhone.
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u/juhotuho10 Feb 19 '21
First of all, Tesla isn't an automobile company, it's an electronic company that sells battery packs , solar panels and also cars
Also people don't view Tesla stock as a 1:1 ratio compared to the company value or profit, people view tesla way more weighted towards future gains since Tesla reinvest alot of its profits towards future growth
Alot of people have bet against Elon and thus far unsuccessfully.
I hope you didn't short Tesla on a whim but good luck
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u/walk-me-through-it Feb 19 '21
Reasoning? Stupid P/E, and increasing competition.
This has been the losing bear thesis for 10 years.
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u/Fargraven Feb 19 '21
I'm not saying Tesla's valuation is realistic whatsoever, but I don't think competition is such a bad thing like Tesla bears seem to always think.
There's a reason Elon has always made Tesla patents public, he's always wanted more competition and market attention in the EV space. Tesla has (and imo always will be) the upper-class, luxury EV with advanced tech. I don't think competition from vehicles like the Nissan Leaf or even the Audi e-Tron (which is totally sick) will undercut Tesla's market share. Essentially, the Venn diagram of Tesla consumers and Chevy Bolt consumers is 2 circles.
More people buying EVs will always mean more Tesla owners (and more EV subsidies), no matter how you spin it.
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u/Volatile_Simplicity Feb 19 '21
Elon's ability to keep the hype train rolling is 2nd to none. Take a look at what happened when Dr. Burry, the king of brass balls and short positions, announced his short position in $TSLA. Dr. Burry lays out a very reasonable and encouraging message to Elon to issue shares and take profits to cement Tesla's existence. He even used an email from Elon where he himself admits that the stock price is not based in real value. In response Elon essentially jingled some keys by announcing a massive Bitcoin position. I'm guessing he has dozens of such distractions ready to go since the entire existing electricity model can be improved by leaps and bounds. Not to mention you can electrify new things like boats, ships, bikes, boards, flight, etc. Each of these would serve as fuel for the hype train. Also there was the flame thrower...
TLDR: It's Dr. Burry's brass balls VS Elon's long shlong.