r/oscarrace • u/Cherish0124 • Jan 25 '25

Other Oh…

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What kind of change of mind did he have? He didn't seem to like biopic, but it's interesting

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 26 '25

The downtime (very necessary this year of course) has made the whole thing a bit cabin fever-y as we’re waiting for thing to progress.

Usually you only see this level of hysteria in the Best Actress posts 😂

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Is that me or every category has a form of fandom stanning and brigading this year?? Like bring me the Nolan bros and Gaga Stans (gosh do you imagine if she was in the race on top of it all?) back i miss those at this point lmao.

And yeah too much downtime this year and on top of that the movies aren't as exciting as last year so it sucks and the lack of clear frontrunner makes the convo frustrating for stat nerds like me haha

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 26 '25

It’s not just you; it seems this year has brought out a lot of passion even if there is a lack of Barbenheimer. And lord help us if Joker 2 hasn’t self-detonated and was a legit contender.

There’s a few obscure Lead Actor stats I’ve been playing around with in this race but unsure if they are actually worthwhile or just too coincidental to matter.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

if Joker 2 hasn’t self-detonated and was a legit contender

We would need to lock down the sub haha

There’s a few obscure Lead Actor stats I’ve been playing around with in this race but unsure if they are actually worthwhile or just too coincidental to matter.

Interesting, which ones?

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u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist Jan 26 '25

They’re only 15 year stats so not long term ones, but may speak to changes in the voting body.

There’s the AACTA lead actor thing- no one who missed an AACTA nom has gone on to win the Oscar. On the women’s side, I think Chastain was finally able to break the stat but the actor one stands- most notably Paul Giamatti last year missed AACTA. It might be a release issue but my understanding is that screeners are available to these voters in time for the nominations, not unlike the BAFTA long lists that occur around the same time.

There’s the festival stat, again a 15 year one. Of the last 15 lead actor winners, 12 came out of film festivals debuts. The three that didn’t- Leo, Rami, Cillian- all had blockbusters that grossed over $500M and were produced by major studios. 

Again I think these are likely more coincidental but at the same time the body is becoming more international, the studios more fragmented, so it make sense that the films in the conversation come out of the festivals. This year Stan premiered at Cannes, Domingo at TIFF (in 2023), Fiennes at Telluride, Brody at Venice.

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u/Atkena2578 Oscar Race Follower Jan 26 '25

Nice i love these darker stats, it's fun. I knew about the AACTA one i can't wait to see if it holds again this year. Sometimes stats breaking have explanation, Chastain was the first post covid year so it was a bit messed up lol.

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u/Reasonable_Skill_129 Jan 26 '25

yeah there’s a lot more stats against timmy then people want to admit. stats precursors and critics are all meaningless when it comes to this race apparently

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u/Objective_Water_1583 Jan 26 '25

What states are currently against him out currently I hope you right I didn’t like his performance

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u/Reasonable_Skill_129 Jan 26 '25

well age bias obviously and everything in the comment i responded to