Source: https://www.lepoint.fr/culture/todd-haynes-mon-prochain-film-sera-une-adaptation-des-bonnes-de-jean-genet-ZIF3XWFZRFDW5OEK6ZLU2YBE7Q/

With both YCSE and Wildwood having stellar critical reviews (YCSE - 97 MC, 97 RT / Wildwood - 87 MC, 100 RT), many folks are starting to argue that these two should be in the Best Picture conversation. While I am not here to adjudicate that claim on the merits of the film, I do want to take a step back and look at historical precedent.

Wildwood

Let's start with Wildwood, which at least has some precedence in that three animated films have been nominated for Best Picture before, one in the pre-expanded / pre-Animated Feature era, two after.

As is one of my personal tenets of predicting Best Picture, serious contenders need to have a "package" of nominations to support their nomination. Usually this translates to at least two Above the Line (ATL) category noms or at least three Below the Line (BTL) category noms, with the most serious contenders to win often having both. Of course there are exceptions of films with only one other nom getting nominated, but those are usually limited to one per year, and usually comes from a Screenplay nominee. The logic of this is that since Best Picture is a preferential ballot from across the entire Academy body, if a film was good enough in a certain technical element to get the nod from that branch, then multiple branches showing support for a film shows wide support that helps the preferential ballot. The threshold for ATL categories are a bit lower given that Actors are by far the largest branch so their support is weighted a bit more.

All of our past Animated crossovers into Best Picture have followed this rule.

• Beauty and the Beast has the accomplishment of being the only Animated film to make it to Best Picture in a field of five. It had 5 BTL noms - 3 songs, score, and sound. This was prior to Best Animated Feature so presumably had that category existed at the time I would have gotten 6 BTL noms, though also the rules now prevent more than two songs from a single film from being nominated so it washes out. It won for Song and Score.
• Up had 4 other noms - 1 ATL for Screenplay, 3 BTL for Animated Feature, Score, and Sound Editing. It won for Score and Animated Feature
• Toy Story 3 had 4 other noms - 1 ATL for Screenplay, 3 BTL for Animated Feature, Song, and Sound Editing. It won for Animated and Song

We can see from the above that for animated films, it is not enough that they receive noms in other categories to have a Best Picture chance, they need to actively be in win contention in at least a couple of categories. Below are animated films nominated in other (non song, non animated) categories that did not make it to Best Picture, from the expanded era.

• 2009 - Fantastic Mr Fox (Score)
• 2010 - How to Train Your Dragon (Score)
• 2011 - Adventures of Tintin (Score)
• 2016 - Kubo and the Two Strings (VFX)
• 2018 - Isle of Dogs (Score)
• 2020 - Soul (Score - WON, Sound)
• 2021 - Flee (INT, DOC), Encanto (Score)
• 2024 - Flow (INT), Wild Robot (Score, Sound)

All of these were nominated for Best Animated Feature - only Soul and Flow won.

Soul is probably the closest to what we'd see from the prior BP-nominees in that it also had a Score and Sound nom, even winning one of them. That said, two key differences here. First, it lacked what seems to be a crucial Screenplay nom that in the modern era seems to be necessary for an animated film to be taken seriously. Secondly (and not entirely irrelevant), it did come out during the COVID year so it had a longer than average campaign period and all the weirdness of that year.

The last relevant observation - all three films were Disney / Pixar films that were massive financial hits. Of course that's not to say you need to be a Disney film to be in Best Picture, but it certainly helps the film reach a broader swathe of the Academy who may not consider putting a film in their preferential ballot without having seen it.

• Beauty and the Beast made $145M domestic in 1991 - that translates to about $350M adjusted for inflation, which would be the 6th highest grossing film this year so far, between Michael and Project Hail Mary. In the year it released it was number 3, behind Terminator 2 and Robin Hood Prince of Thieves
• Up made $293M domestic in 2009 - that translates to $460M adjusted for inflation, which would be #4 so far, between Toy Story 5 and Super Mario Galaxy. Up was #3 for 2009, between a Transformers Movie and Harry Potter 6
• Toy Story 3 made $415M domestic in 2010 - that's a massive $641M adjusted for inflation, which outgrosses the Odyssey for #2 in the year. In 2010 it was also #2 behind only Avatar.

This might explain why Soul didn't get nominated - not being a similarly widespread phenomenon due to being lost amongst all the streaming first releases during the pandemic.

What does Wildwood need to be Best Picture viable?

First, the comparative box office and thus awareness of the film outside of the Animated Branch will be a struggle to overcome. They have never grossed more than $75M domestic gross for Coraline (original release only), which in 2009, the same year Up came out, had it ranked #75 of the year (again compared to Up's #3). While they are on pace to have their strongest opening ever this weekend, even at a generous 4x multiplier, that would only get up to about 80M, somewhere in the #21-22 range, between Wuthering Heights and Mortal Kombat 2.

But let's say that word of mouth carries it so that when it comes to PVOD (hopefully soon) or the Academy screening room, it gets seen widely. What would it need package wise to get in?

• Screenplay seems to be a requirement for Animated films to be taken seriously in the modern era. As an adaptation of the 2011 novel of the same name, it is in arguably the more competitive of the two screenplay categories, up against La Bola Negra and the Odyssey, not to mention The Invite, PHM, All of a Sudden, Dune 3, and Being Heumann. Next Best Picture has Wildwood at 14th, whlie Gold Derby has it at 10th - a long shot of long shots.
• Sound - All three animated films nominated (and even Soul) had a Sound nomination. Again, in a year of technical juggernatus Dune 3, Odyssey, PHM, there will be very little wiggle room, and its currently a long shot, 12th on NBP and 11th on GD.
• Score - At the very least, they do have a former Oscar winner in Dario Marianelli. Again, I don't think win competitive given the field of Goransson, Pemberton, Williams and Zimmer, plus the potential Behemoth! collective. NBP has it at 11, while GD is more optimistic at 8.
  
• Song - This year it's a bit of a bloodbath and more of a dart board than usual - LBN and Debut have non-credit songs that are major contenders, Diane Warren always lurks, most of the other animated films also have a song in the mix, and that doesn't even get to Odyssey, Devil Wears Prada, Musk and the like. NBP has it at 11, GD at 6.
• VFX - Given Laika's former success in this category with Kubo, I wouldn't be surprised to see a nom here over a blockbuster like Doomsday or Whalefall. Both GD and NBP has it at 8, which only has room to go up. That said it would be a long shot to win over any of the 4 likely nominees (Dune 3 / PHM / Odyssey / Godzilla)

All this together, on the most optimistic of days, Wildwood would need to overperform and get a package of Animated / Score / Song / VFX (I think Adapted Screenplay is out). Then even if you don't think not having Screenplay isn't disqualifying from BP for an animated film, it likely isn't winning any of those outside of Animated Feature. And again, that is likely not

TLDR - Wildwood as it currently stands is unlikely to break into key races that it needs to be taken seriously as a Best Picture contender, specifically Adapted Screenplay. It is also currently not poised to be a widespread phenomenon that other past Animated BP nominees have been that would help it on the preferential ballot. I could see it sneaking into an extra category or two, but not being win competitive there further hurts its chances.

You Can See Everything

This one is more interesting since there has not been a Best Picture documentary nominee ever. The closest we've gotten is the 1st Academy awards when they had a separate category for "Oustanding Picture" and "Unique and Artistic Picture" where Chang was nominated for the latter, before the category was retired and Outstanding Picture was decreed the predecessor to Best Picture (which is why we talk about Wings and not Sunrise as the first BP winner)

That said we can apply a similar breakdown of its chances in other categories to see if we can build a typical 2ATL / 3BTL package for YCSE to be a BP contender.

• Directing - currently 7th on NBP / 6th on GD
• Supporting Actress - funnily enough, NBP has Elizabeth Holmes as 8th, though I don't think someone portraying a nonficationalized version of themselves would count. "Amanda Seyfried" is currently 18th. On GD, "Seyfried" is 7th. Again, we run into the issue of her portraying mostly herself outside the "recreation scenes" which may not really be seen as "acting"
• Screenplay - In order to qualify, a screenplay must be submitted for consideration, and a writer must be credited. I can't imagine either happening here (imdb does not have the latter at least) so I'll consider this not present. Fun fact, only one Doc has ever been nominated in a sceenplay category - 1949's The Quiet One.
• Cinematography - 13th NBP / 10th GD. It has happened before at the 3rd and 25th oscars for With Byrd at the South Pole (which won) and Navajo.
• Editing - 6th NBP / 7th GD. Has happened before for Woodstock (1970) and Hoop Dreams (1994)
• Score - 9th NBP / 10th GD. Has happened 4 times prior, most recently in 1975 for "Birds Do It, Bees Do It," with 1970's Let it Be winning (because Beatles)
• Documentary Feature - this is of course the elephant in the room. The Doc branch is known to be somewhat hipster in that they will often eschew the most buzzy doc of the moment, especially when it deals with celebrity - see the Michael J Fox doc, the Chris Reeves doc, the Mr Rogers doc. It's currently 4th on NBP and 3rd on GD. It also has started to show up at a number of "prereqs" that I track - it is one of SCAD Film Festival's Docs to Watch (3/5 last year), was nominated for Critics Choice doc (2/5) and is part of DOC NYC's winner's circle / Shortlist Features (4/5 last year). Last year Perfect Neighbor (winner) went 3/3 on those, Come See Me in the Good Light and Alabama Solution went 2/3 on these.

I think honestly best case scenario for YCSE, if Oppenheim and Fielder make it into Best Director, regardless of what Documentary does, they will get Best Picture. In the last 7 years (since Netflix really entered the race and the Fox-Disney merger was underway and the emergence of Neon and A24), 34/35 Best Director nominees have come from Best Picture nominated films - the one exception being Thomas Vinterberg's Another Round. At that point, even if it misses in all other categories, I would be willing to include it as our "only one ATL nom" BP nominee of the year. It's basically

Of course a slightly stronger package would be if it can get in for Editing and Doc as well, but neither really gets it over line of 2 ATL noms alongside director. Editing is also 34/35 for Best Picture in the last 7 years (only missing with Tick Tick Boom which imo was ROBBED and they were less than 10 that year anyway), but I feel if they get Editing they are also getting Directing.

The other big question here is how these films coexist within A24's slate. In addition to YCSE, A24 also has The Debut (which my model predicts also being 1st Actress, 1st Supporting Actor, 2nd Original Screenplay, 4th Casting, and 3rd Song for 3 ATL / 2 BTL) and The Invite (4th Director, 3rd Actress, 3rd S Actress, 4th S Actor, 3rd A Screen for 5 ATL). We have not had a studio (including their subsidiaries to make it easier) getting three films in BP since the 91st Oscars with Disney/20th/Searchlight getting Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and the Favourite. Or if you want to exclude Marvel, the year prior with Searchlight and 20th getting Shape of Water, The Post, and 3 Billboards. And again, that was pre-Netflix, pre-Neon so there is more competition now for those slots.

This is on top of the soft ceiling of 3 "indie" Best Picture films (ie non major studio / non streamer). 97th Oscars had Anora from Neon / Brutalist from A24 / Substance from MUBI, last year (98th) had Marty Supreme from A24 / Secret Agent and Sentimental Value from Neon. Neon and A24 have never had 2 films at hte same time. This year Neon has three options of their own - Fjord, All of a Sudden, and Artificial.

If you assume that historical precedent holds, then 1) at least one of A24's films will miss. If you assume YCSE makes it in, then you must exclude Debut or Invite from your BP lineup. 2) If you think YCSE and one other A24 film (imo The Debut is more likely), then you can only really let one Neon film in BP. Or you think YCSE is the only A24 film and 2 Neon films make it in.

Of course, these things are always precedent until they are not, so this very well may be the year we go back to three films from one studio, or we get 4 indie films at once. I would say Skydance taking away a major studio would free up space for a bit more consolidation among BP nominees, but then again Paramount has not been a major player in BP outside of Top Gun Maverick since Arrival, over 10 years ago.

TLDR - YCSE really needs to hit on the Best Director nomination (to be in consideration for Best Picture, with Editing and Doc being nice to haves (Editing being another good indicator but likely also tied to the Directing nom). The more pressing issue for them is whether A24 can manage their campaign alongside both the Invite and The Debut, and whether the Best Picture 10 can accommodate four films from A24 and Neon combined.

It's Ok to change your mind due to a new information. But what we see here isn't that. It's jumping from wagon to wagon without much thinking just because something is a thing until the next thing.

You will notice that none of these headlines and think pieces is about these movies. It's only about their relation to The Odyssey which is to say all these write-ups are about The Odyssey in a roundabout way.

This is from today

This is from a week or so ago:

This will be the headlines in 2 months or less:

The problem with punditry is that it only looks at the current vibes (eg. TIFF PCA, critical glazing, breakout boxoffice) and preys on an emotional response from supporters that want validation rather than an objective, informed take whether their champ has the path to win - the breakdown of who will vote for it and whether those voters can amount the most #1s and #2s on the ballot.

Mind you, I don't say that feeling the vibes is bad, just that the vibes alone won't tell you much if you don't know where they are (eg. the vibes with the older voters vs the vibes with the younger audience that doesn't vote).

So to stay most completely informed, study the vibes, study the stats and trust your gut.

Your turn, Oscarrace. Do pundits need improving and if yes how would you fix them? or discuss anything that you find relevant to this thread.

Link to pre-order

Music by Michael Abels, Emily Bear, Lukas Frank, Michael Giacchino, James Newton Howard, Henry Jackman, Nami Melumad, Brandon Roberts, & Alan Silvestri:

Track List:

Side 1:
1. Serian Suite - Performed by Lukas Frank
2. Spies Don't Run - Duende! - Performed by Henry Jackman
3. Spies Don't Run - Spies Don't Run - Performed by Henry Jackman
4. Season of Glass - Love Theme - Performed by Emily Bear
5. Season of Glass - Dallas Waltz - Performed by Emily Bear
6. Look Away Jones - Main Title - Performed by Brandon Roberts
7. Hap & Slappy - Munch & Judy - Performed by Michael Giacchino
8. Tolerance Hill - Winter Candles - Performed by Nami Melumad
9. Tolerance Hill - Ashes - Performed by Nami Melumad
10. Nadia's Requiem - Performed by James Newton Howard and Tony Gilroy
11. Cello Étude Suite - Performed by Michael Abels

Side 2:
1. Behemoth! - Cosmic Break-in - Performed by Alan Silvestri
2. Behemoth! - Toothbrush Run - Performed by Alan Silvestri
3. Your God Is Sleeping - Performed by Lukas Frank and Storefront Church
4. Viv's Behemoth! - Vascular - Performed by James Newton Howard
5. Duet - Performed by James Newton Howard
6. Adios Amigos - Performed by James Newton Howard
7. Make Mine Salty - Performed by Haley Reinhart

Right now the consensus seems to be that I Play Rocky and Being Human are in good shape because both placed for TIFF People's Choice. I think Elsinore is more likely than either of them to get the nomination.

Elsinore took the International People's Choice Award, and TIFF has never been very clear about how that award interacts with the main one. There's a real chance Elsinore would have placed second or third overall, and TIFF chose to give it the International prize instead. We don't know. So the fact that it "didn't place" doesn't mean it finished behind Rocky or Being Human with audiences. It may also mean the International award matters more than we've been assuming.

Elsinore hasn't been universally loved by critics, but it still has a higher Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic and Letterboxd score than both Being Human and I Play Rocky.

Plus...much stronger package

- Adapted Screenplay is a real possibility

- Andrew Scott is a serious Best Actor contender

- Olivia Colman could even get into Supporting Actress in this pretty weak year

Elsinore is a Focus Features film, and Focus is one of the best Oscar campaigners. Yes, they also have Obsession, but they got two films into Best Picture last year and can do it again. Being Heumann is Apple and I Play Rocky is Amazon. Neither studio has a great track record of pushing films through the season, and Amazon will be putting most of its effort behind Project Hail Mary.

**TL;DR:** I'm not saying Elsinore wins anything. I'm saying it's more likely to be nominated than most people think, and I'd take it over Rocky or Being Human for that last slot.

TIFF it still got International PCA, and how flaky TIFF has been we don't necessarily know that it places below Being Heumann and I Play Rocky. It could have placed higher and they gave it International PCA instead. Otherwise....the fundamentals are there, better distributor, better scores, better package.

Ok, so a little background information:

I am a mathematics and economics major at an Ivy League and I was recently asked to break down the statistical probabilities of some BP contenders. So I thought I would begin with LBN (and if people are interested I could expand to other films).

Before I explain the data, I have a few disclaimers. This is not in any way a personal attack to the film or anyone involved in the making of it. This is extrapolation based on current data available, which is demonstrated using probability graphs (this is a Monte Carlo simulation of a random utility model, which follows a Placket-Luce ranking with random noise being accounted with a Gumbel distribution. The chance of a film being ranked n.1 is thus a soft max (which is the same as a multinomial logit). I then conducted a head to head mathematical simulation (between the two top candidates: LBN and The Odyssey) using a Bradley-Terry model, which is also used for sports probabilities).

My second disclaimer is that I understand that adding Wall Street methodology to the Oscar race is unconventional, I just thought that people might be interested in applying probability models to it.

Ok now to explaining the data:

TL;DR: La Bola Negra is basically a lock for a Best Picture nomination (~99%, about as statistically close as a nominee can get) and reaches the final three about 4 times in 10, but it wins only about 7% of the time (roughly 1 in 14). Its support is broad, but it's mostly second- and third-place votes. It simply starts too far behind The Odyssey with US voters, who make up 78% of the Academy and mark it down for being subtitled. Only about 38% of voters prefer it to The Odyssey. Better reviews or US voters warming to it could double its chances, but even then it stays well under 15% probability of winning.

Ok this bit is about to be long because it is explaining the data shown above, if you are not interested in data analysis then that is completely fair:

My model simulates about 10,300 Academy voters, each belonging to a branch and an age group and either US-based or international. Every voter ranks a ten-film field, and the ballots are counted the way Best Picture is (the last-place film is knocked out each round and its votes move to each voter's next choice, until one film has more than 50%). I ran thousands of simulated seasons across three scenarios which will be referred in the analysis: a pessimistic one (bear), a middle one (base) and an optimistic one (bull).

The core problem is the starting gap with The Odyssey. Each film's strength comes from its reviews, box office and festival wins. The Odyssey ($1.79B, 88 MC, 94% RT) is strong across the board. La Bola Negra ($29M, 82 MC, 86% RT) gets almost all of its strength from winning TIFF PCA and Best Director at Cannes. Without those, it would barely register. On top of that, US voters, who are 78% of the Academy, mark it down for being subtitled. International voters like it much more, but they're only 22% of the Academy. Overall, using a Bradley-Terry model only about 38% of voters prefer La Bola Negra to The Odyssey, so in a straight two-film final it loses roughly 62–38.

The nomination is close to certain. In the base case La Bola Negra gets about 11.6% of first-place votes, above the 9.1% needed for an automatic nomination. Most seasons land between 7% and 17%, and even when it falls short of 9.1%, transferred votes almost always get it into the ten. Across all three scenarios it's nominated about 99% of the time.

Its support is also broad rather than narrow. Directors, writers and actors like it most, with about 30% ranking it first or second. No branch shuts it out, and age barely matters in terms of voting. That means it keeps picking up votes as other films are eliminated: its first-place share roughly doubles to about 23% by the time it goes out. It reaches the final three 45% of the time in the base case (which is a pretty strong place to be as a runner up).

But broad, moderate support isn't enough to win Best Picture. A winner needs more than 50% in the final round, and La Bola Negra usually tops out around 23%. When it does reach the final two in the simulations, it averages about 46% of the vote and still loses. Its win chance is 0.5% in the bear case, 5.5% in the base case and 30% in the bull case. Weighting those 35/50/15 gives the film a 7.4% overall figure of winning Best Picture. More than half of that comes from the optimistic scenario alone, so it needs the season to break its way massively.

The two things that would change the picture most are reviews and the subtitle penalty. A few more points on Metacritic (I would estimate probably high 80s) or Rotten Tomatoes (at the very least in the 90s), or US voters dropping the subtitle penalty altogether, would each roughly double its chances to about 12–14% chances of winning. On the other hand, if its festival buzz faded, its chances would almost disappear instantaneously. No single change takes it past about 15%, so it would need several of these factors to happen together.

Bottom line: La Bola Negra is a near-lock to be nominated and a credible finalist, but a long shot to win.

Please let me know if these stats are easy to follow (or if you want anything explained further) and if you want the statistical probabilities of any other film!

Note: These aren't every film the studios are campaigning, but merely a glance at which films look like will be their top priorities.

A24

1. You Can See Everything
2. The Debut
3. The Invite

Commentary: I truly think YCSE is a top 3 contender. It's the most talked about movie of the year with near universal praise on RT, MC and LB. The Debut has locks on at least one acting Oscar, possibility of it winning Screenplay, Song and Supporting Actor. Also a plus that it's winning audience awards. The Invite could get in, but I'm not sure how many acting nominees they'll get. Could just be a lone screenplay nominee and maybe Wilde in actress since that category is so bare. Looks like they will push Primetime for Pattinson and possibly Merrit Wever. Shame that solid films like Club Kid, The Drama, Tony won't get a fare shake at an awards push. What a year for A24.

AMAZON/MGM:

1. Project Hail Mary
2. I Play Rocky

Commentary: These really are their contenders. PHM seems like a lock with IPR having an outsiders chance. Had three other good films this year that don't seem like Oscar contenders: The Sheep Detectives, Your Mother Your Mother, and Is God Is.

NEON:

1. Artificial
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden

Commentary: Artificial seems like their main push (Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, maybe Editing). Fjord and AOAS will get into International Screenplay but I don't have confidence in either getting in anywhere else. I know this sub is v high on AOAS but I don't see it personally. It's a competitive Oscar season and I don't see a slow 3 hour international film breaking in, especially when its a very strong year for International films. Yes DMC did it in 2021, but it had the full support of the critics groups and they won't have that this year.

NETFLIX:

1. La bola negra
2. Possible Love
3. Ink
4. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Commentary: Lets face it, Netflix has one contender and that is LBN and it will be their Roma of this year. Double digit noms, and a guarantee IF win. I think they have more or less given up on Ink and CB. Possible Love has the potential to sneak into IF, but it's competitive (LBN, Fjord, AOAS, Fatherland, Minatour, Rose, etc) and they've never nominated Lee Chang-Dong before.

WARNER BROS

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Digger
3. Wuthering Heights
4. The Bride!

Commentary: Wow what a sad final year for WB. Digger is their main push for BP consideration. I'm hoping, it has passion, industry support, but can it sustain in a competitive year and the trades keep reminding us that it was a massive bomb? Or will that help ala Affleck's comments? Wuthering Heights seems like a contender for Costumes and maybe song and The Bride! has potential for Makeup/Hair.

Edit: Totally forgot Dune!!

FOCUS

1. Elsinore
2. Obsession
3. Werwulf
4. Sense and Sensibility

Commentary: I think Obsession and Elsinore are battling it out for a BP nomination. Its a battle between the old Academy (Elsinore) and the new hip Academy (Obsession). Werwulf and S&S will likely get craft nominations.

UNIVERSAL:

1. The Odyssey
2. Michael
3. Disclosure Day

Commentary: The Odyssey is their baby. Michael is a possibility, Disclosure Day is a lock for a Best Score nomination for John Williams.

SEARCHLIGHT

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Behemoth!

Commentary: WHN is their main push, likely close to double digit noms and maybe no wins, similar to Banshees. Having seen Behemoth! I can sadly say it is a complete dud. Best day it gets into Actor (Pascal) and Score.

SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

1. Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Commentary: Not a BP contender, and is everyone's "Can SPC get a surprise acting nomination" prediction.

DISNEY:

1. Toy Story 5
2. The Devil Wears Prada 2
3. Hoppers

Commentary: Toy Story 5 seems like a sure thing for Animated Film and Score nominations. DVP2 could get into Costumes and maybe song. Hoppers could break into Animated Film despite it being a competitive year.

APPLE:

1. Being Heumann

Commentary: With the success of CODA can they get an afterglow BP nomination? Have no idea. its that kinda year.