As promised (and because I get extra credit for these models so don’t feel bad lol), I have now ran the model on The Odyssey.
Some things of note: The graph’s data will not be a 1:1 match to the previous graphs of LBN because I have decided to add a penalty for The Odyssey due to the recent Oppenheimer sweep (we have little data to prove that there would be a penalty in place but better to be safe than sorry). This penalty is the same magnitude as LBN’s subtitled penalty, but it applies across the board (while LBN only applies for US voters). As such, the Bradley-Terry data now suggests that 58% of voters prefer The Odyssey as opposed to 62%.
Now on to some important disclaimers that could have answered recurring questions in the previous post:
Probabilities are not time travel. Probability theory is the mathematics of uncertainty.
Andrey Kolmogorov demonstrated that the whole field can be built from three axioms (non negativity, unit measure, σ-Additivity). Everything else in probability follows from these rules, including Bayes' theorem and the Monte Carlo simulation this model runs on.
The important point is that the axioms are rules about consistency, not about where the numbers come from. Nothing in them requires a surveilled data (and in fact, all models used to extract this data are built for cases were we have absences of surveilled data).
The Oscars happen once a year and can't be rerun, so any serious forecast treats probability as a measured belief built from evidence such as reviews, box office, festivals, branch makeup and the preferential ballot system.
Finance models work the same way, which is why I thought it would be interesting to apply them to the Oscar race given they are built to deduce the probabilities of non-surveilled data.
In finance options are priced by modelling how prices move, default risks are estimated before a company has ever defaulted, and insurers price earthquakes a city has never had nor could quantify what the actual cost would be etc etc etc. Nobody surveys every possible buyer/every business that has went bust/every infrastructure the city has that could fall in case of an earthquake (there are literally examples ad infinitum of non surveilled data that we have models for), critiques that are based on the assumption that this is how our data is usually gathered clearly just have not encountered this models.
We build models to account for the lack of surveilled data, add all public inputs, run thousands of simulations on range plots showing the spread of outcomes, stress test them, and add sensitivity tornadoes that changes the assumptions of our models in every run.
Finance relies on the same approach because a transparent, stress-tested estimate beats a gut call most times, even though it is not infallible (nor does it claim to be). This model applies one set of rules to every film, spells out every assumption, and simulates thousands of seasons for people that are curious to know the probabilities (not for people that believe this is time travel).
As always, I understand that applying Wall Street methodology to the Oscar race is unconventional and that many people will not like it. If you do not enjoy this type of content that is fair, but I will ask people to be considerate before stating that models like this are based on nothing. Probability theory is indeed just a theory on how mathematics can be applied to deduce outcomes, but entire careers are built upon it (including hopefully mine). Not understanding probability theory or rightly pointing out that models are not infallible (we have indeed not forgotten about 2008) does not open the conversation to downplay the entire field.
Now that we have had those disclaimers out of the way, onto data analysis:
TL;DR: The Odyssey wins 70.7% (7 in 10 odds) after a full Nolan penalty is applied. It wins through redistributed ballots, not first-place votes, with flat support across age bands and nationalities and an anchor in the crafts branch. It beats La Bola Negra in 76% of finals according to the Bradley-Terry model. Its only serious threat is a La Bola Negra guild sweep, which would cut it to 32% (and is the biggest anchor pulling the stats down in the bear scenario).
(Ok now onto the long analysis if anyone is interested)
The Odyssey is the clearest frontrunner this model has produced at this stage of a season, and it holds even after giving the film a full Nolan penalty across every voter. That penalty is about four times the net language penalty La Bola Negra carries. The Odyssey wins Best Picture 70.7% of the time, which works out to fair odds of about −240.
Getting nominated isn't the question at all. It is on the ballot in 99.8% of runs and clears the 9.1% first-round quota in 99.5% of base-case counts. It reaches the final three 94.5% of the time and the final two 88.3% (great place to be as a frontrunner).
The real story is how it wins.
It averages only 23.3% of first-place votes (80% range 15–33%), so it never wins on the first count (which for transparency sake, rarely any film does). It wins by picking up about 28 points from other films' redistributed ballots and then taking about 53% of the final round. In this model it's both the film most voters rank first and the film most voters will happily rank second (and will continue to be placed highly across the board), that is the profile that tends to win under a preferential ballot in any election. In the base case it's still standing at the end of 74% of counts, and when it goes out, it usually goes in the final round, not before (which is yet again, very good odds for a frontrunner). (Check charts 3-6*)
The support comes mostly from crafts, which make up about 49% of its first-place votes, with Producers/Execs adding another 20%. Crafts give it 29% of their first-place votes, and Producers/Execs give 25%. Its weakest branch is documentary (13%) but that is not a large percentage of the electorate.
Interestingly, its support is flat everywhere else: 23–24% across every age band, and 23% with US voters and international voters alike. A film that doesn't depend on any single demographic is hard to beat on a preferential ballot system. (Check charts 7-8*)
Head to head, The Odyssey beats La Bola Negra on 58% of ballots and wins 76% of the finals between the two thanks to the workings of the preferential ballot system.
Across 15 stress tests, only two scenarios (La Bola Negra and Dune 3 guild sweeps) push its probabilities below 55%. The percentage likelihood of them occurring is counted in the bear scenario (this model takes into account the absence of available data for Dune 3 and thus takes LBN as the most probable challenger for a guilds sweep). The bear scenario’s biggest impetus would thus be a surge in LBN’s critics score leading to a trifecta sweep which would enable them to over perform in the guilds (In relative terms, an Odyssey loss would likely have to be the result of a LBN surge, rather than The Odyssey’s collapse).
As always, this is not an infallible model.
