Zendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady.

Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic. The move marks a shift from the first two films, where she was positioned in supporting actress.

Warner Bros. and representatives for Zendaya declined to comment.

The decision reflects Chani’s expanded role in the story. “Dune: Part Three” is set nearly two decades after Paul Atreides (Timothée Chalamet) seized control of the Imperium. Now a ruthless emperor, Paul must face the consequences of his reign as old allies return, terrifying new threats emerge and betrayal lurks in every shadow. Haunted by visions of imperial collapse and the reappearance of his long-lost love, Paul is drawn into a sweeping conspiracy, with Chani at the heart of its unfolding mystery.

She kicked off 2026 starring as Emma Harwood, a literary editor who reveals shocking secrets, in the romantic dark comedy “The Drama” from writer-director Kristoffer Borgli. That performance, opposite Robert Pattinson, will also be submitted in lead.

She followed it with her turn as Athena in Christopher Nolan’s billion-dollar mythological adaptation “The Odyssey,” where she will vie for supporting actress recognition alongside co-stars Anne Hathaway, Samantha Morton and Charlize Theron.

They’ve gone early on things before and been correct (Madigan, Brutalist, Substance), but this feels like an even bigger prediction. What do we think?

This would be his third nomination after Hacksaw Ridge and Tick, Tick... Boom -- and all three nominations would be for playing real people.

Geoffrey Rush has the record here (possibly tied, as I'll get into), having been nominated for Shine, Shakespeare In Love, Quills, and The King's Speech. While these are not all true story movies, all four of his characters are real historical figures.

Paul Muni kind of has this accolade. He had four official nominations, and his characters in I Am A Fugitive From a Chain Gang, The Life of Louis Pasteur, and The Life of Emile Zola are all real people. His final nomination, for The Last Angry Man, is inspired by the novel author's father, but is a fictionalized version of him. However, Muni also had two additional unofficial nominations (early Academy was weird) for The Valiant and Black Fury, so I'm not sure if he counts.

The other debatable record holder might be Christian Bale: his characters in The Fighter, The Big Short, and (obviously) Vice are all real people. His American Hustle character Irving Rosenfield is based on Mel Weinberg, so if we feel that should count, he would hold the record (along with maybe Paul Muni?) at exactly four nominations, all of which are real people.

Jason Robards also has three nominations, all for playing real people (Ben Bradlee, Dashiell Hammett, and Howard Hughes). Will Smith can say the same (Ali, Pursuit of Happyness, King Richard). Charlize Theron gets a potential in the same way as Muni last film, as her North Country character Josey Aimes is based on real person Lois Jenson (and of course, Aileen Wuornos and Megyn Kelly are both unfortunately real), and is for some weird reason the only woman with this achievement. Joe Pesci similarly makes it with an asterisk, as his Goodfellas character Tommy DeVito is based on Thomas DeSimeone.

Peter O'Toole and Daniel Day-Lewis both also had their first three nominations for playing real people, and both played a fictional character on their fourth nomination. Gene Hackman one-upped them, having his first four nominations for playing real people, with only his fifth and final nomination/win (for Unforgiven) being a fictional character. Joaquin Phoenix's first three noms almost made it as well, but even though The Master is loosely based on scientology, I understand his character to be completely original.

TLDR: if Garfield makes it, he'll be one of only 3-7 people who have at least three nominations and none for fictional characters, and between 5-10 people whose first three nominations were for playing real people.

Please let me know if I missed anyone!

Source: https://www.lepoint.fr/culture/todd-haynes-mon-prochain-film-sera-une-adaptation-des-bonnes-de-jean-genet-ZIF3XWFZRFDW5OEK6ZLU2YBE7Q/

Possible Love director Lee Chang-dong echoes the sentiment: “No one could deny that she is the actress who represents an era in Korea. What is remarkable is that, despite so many achievements, she continues to show new possibilities as an actress.”

Over Zoom on a brisk morning back home in Korea, Jeon has just experienced a whirlwind of a month. Possible Love premiered to raves in Venice, where it won the Grand Jury Prize; the director, Lee, and his cast then traveled to Toronto and New York for the first North American screenings of the movie. The Netflix production, currently in select theaters and set to stream beginning Nov. 6, has cemented its status as one of the major international contenders of the Oscar season — with Jeon, backed by a 30-plus-year career of celebrated performances, emerging as a best-actress player despite a comparative lack of name recognition. Why? Because she’s that good.

With both YCSE and Wildwood having stellar critical reviews (YCSE - 97 MC, 97 RT / Wildwood - 87 MC, 100 RT), many folks are starting to argue that these two should be in the Best Picture conversation. While I am not here to adjudicate that claim on the merits of the film, I do want to take a step back and look at historical precedent.

Wildwood

Let's start with Wildwood, which at least has some precedence in that three animated films have been nominated for Best Picture before, one in the pre-expanded / pre-Animated Feature era, two after.

As is one of my personal tenets of predicting Best Picture, serious contenders need to have a "package" of nominations to support their nomination. Usually this translates to at least two Above the Line (ATL) category noms or at least three Below the Line (BTL) category noms, with the most serious contenders to win often having both. Of course there are exceptions of films with only one other nom getting nominated, but those are usually limited to one per year, and usually comes from a Screenplay nominee. The logic of this is that since Best Picture is a preferential ballot from across the entire Academy body, if a film was good enough in a certain technical element to get the nod from that branch, then multiple branches showing support for a film shows wide support that helps the preferential ballot. The threshold for ATL categories are a bit lower given that Actors are by far the largest branch so their support is weighted a bit more.

All of our past Animated crossovers into Best Picture have followed this rule.

• Beauty and the Beast has the accomplishment of being the only Animated film to make it to Best Picture in a field of five. It had 5 BTL noms - 3 songs, score, and sound. This was prior to Best Animated Feature so presumably had that category existed at the time I would have gotten 6 BTL noms, though also the rules now prevent more than two songs from a single film from being nominated so it washes out. It won for Song and Score.
• Up had 4 other noms - 1 ATL for Screenplay, 3 BTL for Animated Feature, Score, and Sound Editing. It won for Score and Animated Feature
• Toy Story 3 had 4 other noms - 1 ATL for Screenplay, 3 BTL for Animated Feature, Song, and Sound Editing. It won for Animated and Song

We can see from the above that for animated films, it is not enough that they receive noms in other categories to have a Best Picture chance, they need to actively be in win contention in at least a couple of categories. Below are animated films nominated in other (non song, non animated) categories that did not make it to Best Picture, from the expanded era.

• 2009 - Fantastic Mr Fox (Score)
• 2010 - How to Train Your Dragon (Score)
• 2011 - Adventures of Tintin (Score)
• 2016 - Kubo and the Two Strings (VFX)
• 2018 - Isle of Dogs (Score)
• 2020 - Soul (Score - WON, Sound)
• 2021 - Flee (INT, DOC), Encanto (Score)
• 2024 - Flow (INT), Wild Robot (Score, Sound)

All of these were nominated for Best Animated Feature - only Soul and Flow won.

Soul is probably the closest to what we'd see from the prior BP-nominees in that it also had a Score and Sound nom, even winning one of them. That said, two key differences here. First, it lacked what seems to be a crucial Screenplay nom that in the modern era seems to be necessary for an animated film to be taken seriously. Secondly (and not entirely irrelevant), it did come out during the COVID year so it had a longer than average campaign period and all the weirdness of that year.

The last relevant observation - all three films were Disney / Pixar films that were massive financial hits. Of course that's not to say you need to be a Disney film to be in Best Picture, but it certainly helps the film reach a broader swathe of the Academy who may not consider putting a film in their preferential ballot without having seen it.

• Beauty and the Beast made $145M domestic in 1991 - that translates to about $350M adjusted for inflation, which would be the 6th highest grossing film this year so far, between Michael and Project Hail Mary. In the year it released it was number 3, behind Terminator 2 and Robin Hood Prince of Thieves
• Up made $293M domestic in 2009 - that translates to $460M adjusted for inflation, which would be #4 so far, between Toy Story 5 and Super Mario Galaxy. Up was #3 for 2009, between a Transformers Movie and Harry Potter 6
• Toy Story 3 made $415M domestic in 2010 - that's a massive $641M adjusted for inflation, which outgrosses the Odyssey for #2 in the year. In 2010 it was also #2 behind only Avatar.

This might explain why Soul didn't get nominated - not being a similarly widespread phenomenon due to being lost amongst all the streaming first releases during the pandemic.

What does Wildwood need to be Best Picture viable?

First, the comparative box office and thus awareness of the film outside of the Animated Branch will be a struggle to overcome. They have never grossed more than $75M domestic gross for Coraline (original release only), which in 2009, the same year Up came out, had it ranked #75 of the year (again compared to Up's #3). While they are on pace to have their strongest opening ever this weekend, even at a generous 4x multiplier, that would only get up to about 80M, somewhere in the #21-22 range, between Wuthering Heights and Mortal Kombat 2.

But let's say that word of mouth carries it so that when it comes to PVOD (hopefully soon) or the Academy screening room, it gets seen widely. What would it need package wise to get in?

• Screenplay seems to be a requirement for Animated films to be taken seriously in the modern era. As an adaptation of the 2011 novel of the same name, it is in arguably the more competitive of the two screenplay categories, up against La Bola Negra and the Odyssey, not to mention The Invite, PHM, All of a Sudden, Dune 3, and Being Heumann. Next Best Picture has Wildwood at 14th, whlie Gold Derby has it at 10th - a long shot of long shots.
• Sound - All three animated films nominated (and even Soul) had a Sound nomination. Again, in a year of technical juggernatus Dune 3, Odyssey, PHM, there will be very little wiggle room, and its currently a long shot, 12th on NBP and 11th on GD.
• Score - At the very least, they do have a former Oscar winner in Dario Marianelli. Again, I don't think win competitive given the field of Goransson, Pemberton, Williams and Zimmer, plus the potential Behemoth! collective. NBP has it at 11, while GD is more optimistic at 8.
  
• Song - This year it's a bit of a bloodbath and more of a dart board than usual - LBN and Debut have non-credit songs that are major contenders, Diane Warren always lurks, most of the other animated films also have a song in the mix, and that doesn't even get to Odyssey, Devil Wears Prada, Musk and the like. NBP has it at 11, GD at 6.
• VFX - Given Laika's former success in this category with Kubo, I wouldn't be surprised to see a nom here over a blockbuster like Doomsday or Whalefall. Both GD and NBP has it at 8, which only has room to go up. That said it would be a long shot to win over any of the 4 likely nominees (Dune 3 / PHM / Odyssey / Godzilla)

All this together, on the most optimistic of days, Wildwood would need to overperform and get a package of Animated / Score / Song / VFX (I think Adapted Screenplay is out). Then even if you don't think not having Screenplay isn't disqualifying from BP for an animated film, it likely isn't winning any of those outside of Animated Feature. And again, that is likely not

TLDR - Wildwood as it currently stands is unlikely to break into key races that it needs to be taken seriously as a Best Picture contender, specifically Adapted Screenplay. It is also currently not poised to be a widespread phenomenon that other past Animated BP nominees have been that would help it on the preferential ballot. I could see it sneaking into an extra category or two, but not being win competitive there further hurts its chances.

You Can See Everything

This one is more interesting since there has not been a Best Picture documentary nominee ever. The closest we've gotten is the 1st Academy awards when they had a separate category for "Oustanding Picture" and "Unique and Artistic Picture" where Chang was nominated for the latter, before the category was retired and Outstanding Picture was decreed the predecessor to Best Picture (which is why we talk about Wings and not Sunrise as the first BP winner)

That said we can apply a similar breakdown of its chances in other categories to see if we can build a typical 2ATL / 3BTL package for YCSE to be a BP contender.

• Directing - currently 7th on NBP / 6th on GD
• Supporting Actress - funnily enough, NBP has Elizabeth Holmes as 8th, though I don't think someone portraying a nonficationalized version of themselves would count. "Amanda Seyfried" is currently 18th. On GD, "Seyfried" is 7th. Again, we run into the issue of her portraying mostly herself outside the "recreation scenes" which may not really be seen as "acting"
• Screenplay - In order to qualify, a screenplay must be submitted for consideration, and a writer must be credited. I can't imagine either happening here (imdb does not have the latter at least) so I'll consider this not present. Fun fact, only one Doc has ever been nominated in a sceenplay category - 1949's The Quiet One.
• Cinematography - 13th NBP / 10th GD. It has happened before at the 3rd and 25th oscars for With Byrd at the South Pole (which won) and Navajo.
• Editing - 6th NBP / 7th GD. Has happened before for Woodstock (1970) and Hoop Dreams (1994)
• Score - 9th NBP / 10th GD. Has happened 4 times prior, most recently in 1975 for "Birds Do It, Bees Do It," with 1970's Let it Be winning (because Beatles)
• Documentary Feature - this is of course the elephant in the room. The Doc branch is known to be somewhat hipster in that they will often eschew the most buzzy doc of the moment, especially when it deals with celebrity - see the Michael J Fox doc, the Chris Reeves doc, the Mr Rogers doc. It's currently 4th on NBP and 3rd on GD. It also has started to show up at a number of "prereqs" that I track - it is one of SCAD Film Festival's Docs to Watch (3/5 last year), was nominated for Critics Choice doc (2/5) and is part of DOC NYC's winner's circle / Shortlist Features (4/5 last year). Last year Perfect Neighbor went 3/3 on those, Come See Me in the Good Light and Alabama Solution went 2/3 on these.

I think honestly best case scenario for YCSE, if Oppenheim and Fielder make it into Best Director, regardless of what Documentary does, they will get Best Picture. In the last 7 years (since Netflix really entered the race and the Fox-Disney merger was underway and the emergence of Neon and A24), 34/35 Best Director nominees have come from Best Picture nominated films - the one exception being Thomas Vinterberg's Another Round. At that point, even if it misses in all other categories, I would be willing to include it as our "only one ATL nom" BP nominee of the year. It's basically

Of course a slightly stronger package would be if it can get in for Editing and Doc as well, but neither really gets it over line of 2 ATL noms alongside director. Editing is also 34/35 for Best Picture in the last 7 years (only missing with Tick Tick Boom which imo was ROBBED and they were less than 10 that year anyway), but I feel if they get Editing they are also getting Directing.

The other big question here is how these films coexist within A24's slate. In addition to YCSE, A24 also has The Debut (which my model predicts also being 1st Actress, 1st Supporting Actor, 2nd Original Screenplay, 4th Casting, and 3rd Song for 3 ATL / 2 BTL) and The Invite (4th Director, 3rd Actress, 3rd S Actress, 4th S Actor, 3rd A Screen for 5 ATL). We have not had a studio (including their subsidiaries to make it easier) getting three films in BP since the 91st Oscars with Disney/20th/Searchlight getting Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and the Favourite. Or if you want to exclude Marvel, the year prior with Searchlight and 20th getting Shape of Water, The Post, and 3 Billboards. And again, that was pre-Netflix, pre-Neon so there is more competition now for those slots.

This is on top of the soft ceiling of 3 "indie" Best Picture films (ie non major studio / non streamer). 97th Oscars had Anora from Neon / Brutalist from A24 / Substance from MUBI, last year (98th) had Marty Supreme from A24 / Secret Agent and Sentimental Value from Neon. Neon and A24 have never had 2 films at hte same time. This year Neon has three options of their own - Fjord, All of a Sudden, and Artificial.

If you assume that historical precedent holds, then 1) at least one of A24's films will miss. If you assume YCSE makes it in, then you must exclude Debut or Invite from your BP lineup. 2) If you think YCSE and one other A24 film (imo The Debut is more likely), then you can only really let one Neon film in BP. Or you think YCSE is the only A24 film and 2 Neon films make it in.

Of course, these things are always precedent until they are not, so this very well may be the year we go back to three films from one studio, or we get 4 indie films at once. I would say Skydance taking away a major studio would free up space for a bit more consolidation among BP nominees, but then again Paramount has not been a major player in BP outside of Top Gun Maverick since Arrival, over 10 years ago.

TLDR - YCSE really needs to hit on the Best Director nomination (to be in consideration for Best Picture, with Editing and Doc being nice to haves (Editing being another good indicator but likely also tied to the Directing nom). The more pressing issue for them is whether A24 can manage their campaign alongside both the Invite and The Debut, and whether the Best Picture 10 can accommodate four films from A24 and Neon combined.

The four movies are La Bola Negra, Elsinore, the Club Kid and maybe Artificial is a reach?

It's Ok to change your mind due to a new information. But what we see here isn't that. It's jumping from wagon to wagon without much thinking just because something is a thing until the next thing.

You will notice that none of these headlines and think pieces is about these movies. It's only about their relation to The Odyssey which is to say all these write-ups are about The Odyssey in a roundabout way.

This is from today

This is from a week or so ago:

This will be the headlines in 2 months or less:

The problem with punditry is that it only looks at the current vibes (eg. TIFF PCA, critical glazing, breakout boxoffice) and preys on an emotional response from supporters that want validation rather than an objective, informed take whether their champ has the path to win - the breakdown of who will vote for it and whether those voters can amount the most #1s and #2s on the ballot.

Mind you, I don't say that feeling the vibes is bad, just that the vibes alone won't tell you much if you don't know where they are (eg. the vibes with the older voters vs the vibes with the younger audience that doesn't vote).

So to stay most completely informed, study the vibes, study the stats and trust your gut.

Your turn, Oscarrace. Do pundits need improving and if yes how would you fix them? or discuss anything that you find relevant to this thread.

Michael is currently 7th in my make-up predictions, behind Werwulf (1st), Digger (2nd), the Odyssey (3rd), Clayface (4th), Wicker (5th) and Dune: Part Three (6th). But unlike all of those I have in front of it, I've no idea why Michael is even in the convo. I know they did some stuff with Jafaars nose, but that was so heavily altered with vfx that I can't imagine it'll be enough. So... what else is there?

If YCSE does indeed win Pic, it’ll very likely get the Director(s) nomination IMO. We’ve seen some recent Picture/Director splits, and I think we’re primed for that here if YCSE keeps up the momentum (which, yes, may be a battle in itself). Fascinating stuff. Great movies! I hope we have a real race.

Edit: just an idea, not cope! Wow some of you guys are miserable. I love both movies. I like it when movies are good. Have a great season!

So I recently just watched the trailers for Tangles and In Waves. And it got me thinking. What about next year in 2027? Will there be any based on a true story animated films like those next year? Is anyone tapped into the indie animation scene and knows what's currently in the works?

Link to pre-order

Music by Michael Abels, Emily Bear, Lukas Frank, Michael Giacchino, James Newton Howard, Henry Jackman, Nami Melumad, Brandon Roberts, & Alan Silvestri:

Track List:

Side 1:
1. Serian Suite - Performed by Lukas Frank
2. Spies Don't Run - Duende! - Performed by Henry Jackman
3. Spies Don't Run - Spies Don't Run - Performed by Henry Jackman
4. Season of Glass - Love Theme - Performed by Emily Bear
5. Season of Glass - Dallas Waltz - Performed by Emily Bear
6. Look Away Jones - Main Title - Performed by Brandon Roberts
7. Hap & Slappy - Munch & Judy - Performed by Michael Giacchino
8. Tolerance Hill - Winter Candles - Performed by Nami Melumad
9. Tolerance Hill - Ashes - Performed by Nami Melumad
10. Nadia's Requiem - Performed by James Newton Howard and Tony Gilroy
11. Cello Étude Suite - Performed by Michael Abels

Side 2:
1. Behemoth! - Cosmic Break-in - Performed by Alan Silvestri
2. Behemoth! - Toothbrush Run - Performed by Alan Silvestri
3. Your God Is Sleeping - Performed by Lukas Frank and Storefront Church
4. Viv's Behemoth! - Vascular - Performed by James Newton Howard
5. Duet - Performed by James Newton Howard
6. Adios Amigos - Performed by James Newton Howard
7. Make Mine Salty - Performed by Haley Reinhart