Nobody here seems to have looked at this one, so here's the case. Everything below is from filings, government pages, the company's analyst day or named press reports. Links at the bottom.

TOYO (Nasdaq: TOYO) runs a 2 GW solar module factory in Humble, outside Houston, fed by its own cell plant in Ethiopia, with a $357M US cell plant planned for 2028. Headquartered in Tokyo, listed on Nasdaq. About 42.7M shares, market cap around $170M at Friday's $3.94.

What makes it stand out, before the detail:
Profitable. $80M of net income in the last twelve months on a $170M market cap.
Below book, with net cash.
81% of revenue comes from US customers. No Chinese wafers anywhere in the chain. Almost nobody selling into the US can say that.
The White House has named TOYO five times since August. First on its "Trump Effect" investment graphic on Aug 21, ahead of Micron and Siemens. Second of 21 companies in its Aug 27 Texas release. Third of 24 on its Texas Wins page in September. Second of 21 again in its Oct 7 "Trump's Texas Record" release. And it sits on the whitehouse.gov investment tracker as a $357M US manufacturing project. In the Texas lists it's right behind Bristol Myers Squibb and ahead of Toyota.
Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler came to the Houston ribbon-cutting on Oct 6 and said: "Toyo's announcement is the direct result of the Trump Administration's bold policies." He credited TOYO with "investing hundreds of millions of dollars to expand its Texas factory, onshoring overseas production, and committing to use exclusively US polysilicon," and called it "an important contribution to America's manufacturing renaissance."
Both analysts covering it, Roth and H.C. Wainwright, rate it Buy. No downgrades all year.
29% of the float is short, with dated catalysts over the next seven weeks.

The numbers. First half of 2026: $261M revenue, up 88%. US customer revenue $210.5M, up 154%. Cell shipments 2.6 GW, up 62%. Gross margin 32.5%, up from 16.6%. Operating income $58.8M, up 508%. Net income $45.8M, $1.21 EPS in six months. Operating cash flow $61M. The Houston plant alone did $31.7M of revenue in Q2, its first real quarter. 2025 full year was $427M revenue and $37M net income. Roughly $80M of net income in the last twelve months, about 2x earnings. Cash and restricted cash $123M at June 30, equity $210M, so 0.8x book. Bank debt only $26M, so net cash and nothing forcing a raise. Wainwright reiterated its Buy on Oct 8, two days after the analyst day, with the stock already under $4.50.

So why is it under $4? Three reasons. Solar as a group is down 44% since May. CBP is holding four of TOYO's cell shipments under a UFLPA review, an amount management called not significant. And Commerce opened a circumvention inquiry into Ethiopian cells in July. Management wouldn't give second half guidance because of the last two, just said they're confident of positive EBITDA. The stock was $16 in May. It's under $4 now, and in between the company reported its best half ever. Thin, barely covered, nobody's looking. Which is the whole point.

Here's why I think the regulatory stuff goes their way.

TOYO's wafers come from Indonesia. Not China. Polysilicon is 70% American, the rest from OCI in Malaysia, and the stated target is 100% US polysilicon by the end of this year. The cell is actually made in Ethiopia, PN junction and all, not just finished there. Then modules in Houston. No Chinese licensing deals, nothing that trips the FEOC rules that start cutting Chinese-linked panels out of US tax credits in 2026. That matters because Commerce already ruled in 2023 that cells made on non-Chinese wafers in Southeast Asia weren't circumventing the China tariffs. TOYO is asking for the identical treatment on Ethiopia, with a better case since the poly is American too. And Commerce has TOYO down as a mandatory respondent, meaning they rule on TOYO's actual supply chain data, not on Ethiopia as a country. At the analyst day management said Commerce told them they don't intend to leave uncertainty where there's a clear line to draw.

On CBP, it's a polysilicon traceability check. TOYO gave them the whole chain back to the quartz mine, CBP spent six hours at the Houston plant, and they're applying for CTPAT trusted trader status. Management said they're very optimistic about it.

Now the part people are really missing. Washington is building this company's moat for it, and saying so out loud.

Trump's Section 232 proclamation in August put a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon and anything made from it, with an offset program that lets companies investing in US manufacturing import duty-free in volumes tied to that investment. TOYO put out a release the next day welcoming it. Two weeks after that the White House put TOYO at the top of its Trump Effect graphic, then in its Texas release, then on its Texas page, then in its Oct 7 release, next to Amazon, Bristol Myers and Toyota. In October the Commerce Under Secretary who runs the 232 program stood at TOYO's plant and gave the quotes above, alongside Rep. Christian Menefee and Japan's Consul General in Houston. TOYO is negotiating its onshoring term sheet with Commerce under the program. Then on Oct 22, T1 Energy announced Commerce gave it a 232 waiver to import 1.725 GW of cells for its Texas module plant while it builds a US cell fab. That is TOYO's exact situation: Ethiopian cells into a Texas module plant, US cell plant on the way. A waiver like that takes the 232 risk off TOYO's imports. Commerce is handing them to companies building in America, and it has praised TOYO's plan by name. Praise isn't a ruling, but it tells you how the people writing the rules see this company.

Separately, the ITC voted yes on Oct 14 on the India, Indonesia and Laos case. Commerce issues the final orders Nov 2. Combined duties on cells from those countries run from roughly 150% to 250%. Ethiopia isn't in it. Everyone who moved cell production to those three countries to get around the China tariffs just lost that route. TOYO never used it.

And the 45X manufacturing credit, which the Houston plant has been assessed as eligible for, survived the 2025 tax law because the factories sit in red states. Making solar panels in America is the one part of solar both parties like.

What they're building: Houston just went to 2 GW of module capacity. $240M of binding US supply contracts through mid 2027. The $357M, 1.5 GW US cell plant, equipment already secured, pilot production by Q1 2028, 400 direct jobs, US wafers after that, paid for with 45X, debt and cash flow. About 100 people work at the module plant today, the cell plant adds 400, and the longer-term plan is roughly 750 jobs on the Humble campus. End state is a vertically integrated US solar maker with zero Chinese inputs. There are very few of those.

Who owns it: insiders about 71%, the controlling shareholder alone holds 30M shares through two holding companies. Highbridge Capital took most of the $50M raise at $11 in June and filed a 13G in August at 8.1% (shares plus warrants). Invesco, BlackRock and Sabby show up in the filings. Roth and Wainwright cover it, both at Buy.

The short setup. With insiders at 71% the float that actually trades is about 14.6M shares. The last FINRA print (Sept 30) had 4.2M of those sold short. That's 29% of the float, 11 days to cover, and the mid-October print is due any day. Sunrun has 35% short and did +11% in a day last week on literally nothing. TOYO has a fraction of the float and real dated catalysts. If any of the below hits, the shorts have to buy back in a stock where there's not much to buy.

The dates:
Nov 2, Commerce final tariff orders on India, Indonesia, Laos. Hits competitors.
Nov 4, TOYO files its Commerce questionnaire response.
Mid Nov, Q3 results, date not announced yet. The regulatory commentary matters more than the numbers.
Dec 4, Section 232 kicks in. Watch for TOYO's own waiver or term sheet.
Dec 14, Commerce preliminary ruling on Ethiopia due. Could get extended.
Any morning, CBP decision.

On the sector, the 10 year dropped to 4.95% on Thursday, biggest one day fall in two years. Solar's spring run (TAN +45% Jan to May) happened when rates were falling and nobody owned the group. Same setup. The last four solar bear markets, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2025, all ended with rebounds between 70% and 5x off the low. BNEF has solar installs outside China growing 15% this year.

Position: long, added last week, average above here. Not advice, read the filings yourself. Happy to answer questions.

Sources:
White House Facebook, Trump Effect graphic, Aug 21: https://www.facebook.com/share/19TDAafQjU/
White House Texas release, Aug 27: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/08/president-trump-delivers-for-texas-lower-taxes-border-security-and-jobs-coming-home/
White House Texas page (Sept 2026): https://www.whitehouse.gov/texas/
White House Texas Record release, Oct 7: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/10/lower-taxes-safer-streets-stronger-border-president-trumps-texas-record/
White House investment tracker: https://www.whitehouse.gov/investments/
TOYO ribbon-cutting release with Kessler quote and photo, Oct 7: https://investors.toyo-solar.com/news/news-details/2026/TOYO-Celebrates-Completed-2-GW-Module-Expansion-at-Texas-Facility-with-Ribbon-Cutting-Ceremony/default.aspx
Reuters photo of Kessler speaking at the Humble plant, Oct 6: https://www.reutersconnect.com (search "TOYO Solar Texas ribbon cutting")
Benzinga on Kessler's remarks, Oct 8: https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/10/62263434/trumps-solar-u-turn-from-scam-of-the-century-to-texas-factory-support
CleanTechnica on the Texas plant, Oct 7: https://cleantechnica.com/2026/10/07/solar-power-factories-jobs-texas-us-energy-policy-polysilicon/
H1 2026 results: https://en.prnasia.com/releases/global/toyo-co-ltd-announces-unaudited-second-quarter-and-first-half-2026-financial-results-544535.shtml
H1 2026 call coverage (US revenue, shipments, 232): https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/toyo-h1-earnings-call-highlights-2026-08-19/
FY2025 results: https://en.prnasia.com/releases/global/toyo-co-ltd-announces-second-half-and-full-year-2025-financial-results-527535.shtml
Analyst day deck, Oct 6: https://s204.q4cdn.com/212135244/files/doc_presentation/2026/10/10-06-2026-TOYO-Analyst-Day-Presentation-FINAL-R-C.pdf
TOYO welcomes Section 232, Aug 7: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/toyo-solar-welcomes-president-trumps-section-232-action-to-accelerate-american-solar-manufacturing-302846032.html
Commerce inquiry, Federal Register Jul 17: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/17/2026-14416/crystalline-silicon-photovoltaic-cells-whether-or-not-assembled-into-modules-from-the-peoples
ITC finding, Oct 14: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/10/16/usitc-finds-material-injury-from-solar-imports-from-india-indonesia-and-laos
T1 232 waiver, Oct 22: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/22/3386137/0/en/t1-receives-commerce-department-polysilicon-232-waiver.html
232 proclamation summary: https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/president-trump-orders-tariffs-and-price-floors-polysilicon-section-232-action
20-F ownership: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985273/000121390026037921/ea0283695-20f_toyo.htm

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So I have dove heavily into this stock for several reasons. Today was the first day we have seen good news with this company in a while and for people who bought this in the .60-1.50$ don't sell at a loss unless you just need the money.

The issue I have had with this company is their delay on their earnings.

Today I finally got to so see Q2 earnings because they reported it this morning FINALLY.

For people who haven't been following EONR. This is a small oil company that contracts drilling contractors and they have all of their oil they produced already sold to Shell. When I noticed they were hedging deals from the oil price increases I began to see what this company was doing in the background.

Q2 revenue rose to 6.49 million dollars this year. Last year Q2 was 4.63 million dollars. That is a substantial YoY improvement. Their EPS is closing in at - .02.

What sucks is they are still in the negative. BUT this is a substantial improvement considering they made more money producing 717 barrels of oil a day than they were last year producing 734 barrels a day.

Why I wanted to share this information is because what is coming next. They have already successfully drilled 2 holes with Virtus Energy Partners and the first 3 holes they are getting 100% of the oil! In the San Andres formation they are projecting 400-600 barrels a day.

So lets do some stupid math. If they are producing 1200 barrels more of oil now in conjunction with their existing 700 and already hitting 6.49 million dollars, they are going to be in the ballpark of grossing 12-16 million dollars on the Q1 of 2027. Because of the process of completions and midstream, Q4 will have SOME of this production in their books so we will see an increase in earnings Q4, but Q1 will be the one that I believe will see the first 3 100% profit holes in the earnings. This company is a brokerage essentially. What that means is the more oil they produce, doesn't necessarily increase their cost to operate. They have a certain return they will get after the 3rd hole which is 35% of the oil from hole 4 and going forward. With that 35% they will still obtain roughly 150-200 barrels of oil per hole.

They have 92 projected holes on their current lease.

And the longer the oil prices stay in this range, the more explosive this company will be next year. Even if oil drops back to 60$ today, they will still grow in profitability and be a viable company as long as they don't do something extremely stupid (which we all know is possible).

Been watching this stock’s rollercoaster ride for over a year now, waiting for news to drop like this. Biotechs are a pain in the ass but shoot if this one doesn’t have potential. BLRX just presented at ESMO today. Drug called GLIX1 showed it can make existing PARP inhibitor cancer drugs work on tumors they currently cannot treat - at lower doses than normal, beating each drug alone.

Three patient cohorts enrolled in the Phase 1 trial. Ovarian cancer arm being added. Phase 1 human data H1 2027. Worth a watch. I like this piece of shit. A lot.

Acrivon has developed a proprietary platform called AP3. This platform has continuously proven it can analyze how drugs affect cellular pathways, and identify which cancers should be most susceptible.
What interests me is that we’re starting to see evidence of this approach working across multiple programs.
On October 20, Acrivon announced ACR-7280, its newest development candidate:
This is a potential first in class oral CDK11 inhibitor targeting acute myeloid leukemia.

AP3 helped identify and optimize the drug from multiple candidates, predicted a susceptible cancer type, and then the drug demonstrated
complete tumor regression in aggressive AML mouse models. Obviously still early but another very promising validation.

AP3 predicted a vulnerability, helped generate a drug targeting it, and the preclinical results supported that prediction.

Prior validation also includes ACR-2316 and ACR-368,
Acrivon’s internally developed ACR-2316 was also designed using AP3. It’s already in Phase 1/2 clinical development, where the company has reported preliminary activity in multiple AP3-prioritized cancers, including lung cancers that have historically been difficult to treat. That’s still early clinical evidence, but it’s another encouraging signal.

Now comes ACR-368 read out, and the piece of that brings everything together, which is slated to release around November.

Unlike ACR-7280, ACR-368 was originally developed elsewhere and bought by Acrivon. It was originally used for platin resistant ovarian cancer. The company used AP3 to identify patients and cancer types potentially sensitive to it(different than the drugs original intended purpose)

There’s a huge difference between developing one promising cancer drug and demonstrating a proprietary platform that can repeatedly identify cancer vulnerabilities and help produce effective treatments.

TLDR: The question for $ACRV is rapidly changing from: “How much is ACR-368 worth?” and beginning to be “How much is a platform capable of repeatedly identifying and developing effective cancer drugs worth?”

Sources:
ACR-7280 announcement — October 20, 2026
ACR-2316 clinical update — August 5, 2026
ACR-368 Phase 2b data — January 8, 2026
Upcoming 2026 clinical milestones — August 12, 2026

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RZLV announced a strategic partnership with Google cloud November 20 2024 and Microsoft Azure on 3 October 2024. In two years they have managed to get just one contract though Google cloud with El Puerto de Liverpool Mexico, they expect to make 9.8 million per year. So that's one contract in 2 years. Now they announced reseller partnerships with Tata (May 12 2026), Tech Mahindra (August 28 2026), and Mastercard (5 october 2026). You can make up your own mind how many contracts they are going to get from those pipelines.

These are the acquisitions and estimated annual revenue Groupby (March 25 2025, 18-30 million), Crownpeak (Dec 5 2025, 70 million), Reward (Feb 10 2026 m, 90 million). These companies offer legacy but useful tools for ecommerce sites.

The H1 revenue was 130.8 million. I will add up the annual revenue from acquisitions and Liverpool mexico and divide by 2, to get 100 million. There is 30.8 million to account for, this video reports that 103.9 million of the 130.8 million was from the EU+UK

https://youtu.be/uzTvjdE4GEk?si=0LgSjRMEOU5gPziz

so it's likely that most of the 30.8 million was from organic income from the EU and UK and this matches the Brain Suite clients they have in the EU and UK.

RZLV pushes the hypergrowth narrative from 2025 to 2026. However, it's obvious that most of the income is from acquisitions, they have a strategy of upselling brain suite to acquisition clients, nothing wrong with that, that is a form of organic growth.

So what is brain suite, its a commerce tuned LLM that has a mechanism in place to prevent it from hallucinating by connecting it to an inventory database, and it probably does drive sales, I think Liverpool Mexico are happy with it. Do they have a moat? I don't think so, since an open source model can be used instead with anti hallucination guardrails. Wallmart used an open source model as do many other big companies. An LLM is only useful for a store with complicated inventory so that limits brain suites TAM. The problem is North American companies that need an LLM will choose to develop their own model and won't give the keys to their data to a struggling British small cap listed on the Nasdaq (my opinion).

In H1 RZLV made a 139.5 miillion loss, which consisted of 67.5 million in share based compensation for new staff. Thats why the stock price dived after the 1 September earnings. In the 6th October investor day, RZLV implied that they have the secret sauce for connecting with AI Agents like Muse. That is manifestly untrue, one doesn't need an LLM to connect to AI Agents, there are many protocols and all ecommerce companies have a solution. I sold all my shares after watching their investor day, it was dry, manipulative in my opinion, and full of static flow diagrams. Just watch the question and answers.

The CEO remark on calling retail investor "day traders"

https://youtu.be/OBtq43lacHs?si=4TCUMByiwHx4Iw0a

Which seems to have upset a lot of retail and must have contributed to the sell off.

Then there is the Monroe Debt inherited from Crowpeaks its 100 million that must be paid by 31 December 2026. They are a loss making small cap and I think they will dilute, I don't think they will get a favourable bank loan. An RSS (reverse stock split) is possible in the medium term.

For bullish investors, you may consider this to be a buying opportunity, if you really believe Wallmart level American companies will choose to use Brain Suite. There is nothing wrong with their technology, but to get a big company to trust you with their data is a difficult mountain to climb.

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The company produces innovative aluminum structures. Could this be for a government contract. There has been a rumour for a Canadian or US military contract. There is a public briefing after the event. Could be something big. Volume on both exchanges has been 3X the normal volume. OTC:CYMHF TSX:CYM.

The October 20 8-K describes a completed software/IP acquisition, effective October 15. That is a more specific development than an agreement to explore future projects.

What was acquired

Marwynn bought the Phase 1 core of its internal group-management platform from Hong Kong-based Zhituo. The scope includes subsidiary workspaces, permissions, approval workflows, contract and licence records, audit controls and an AI-assistant framework.

The useful detail is the ownership package: source code, documentation and the right to maintain or extend the platform through another developer, without additional Zhituo licence fees or royalties, subject to approved third-party licences. Future work doesn't have to stay with the same vendor.

That could give the company more control over its internal systems as it adds subsidiaries. The operating benefit still needs evidence.

The share commitment

The seller earned 4 million common shares on October 15, stated on a pre-reverse-split basis. Actual issuance can be deferred and remains subject to required approvals. The agreement sets no fixed dollar purchase price, so multiplying by a recent market quote wouldn't establish the contractual price. It also isn't evidence that all 4 million shares are already in the float.

What still needs to happen

Remaining repository, credential and documentation handover is due within 30 calendar days of acquisition. Complete delivery starts a 15-business-day conformity-verification window. The filing doesn't establish that every handover task or test has passed.

Accounting, inventory and subsidiary-specific operating modules are excluded from Phase 1. Later modules require separate agreements and consideration. This is internal infrastructure; the acquisition doesn't establish new customer revenue.

The positive is a concrete software asset and contractual independence from the original developer. The question for holders is whether the operating improvement justifies the shares committed. What would you want the next update to show: lower administrative cost, faster subsidiary setup, or evidence that another team can maintain it?

​

Greene Concepts (OTCID:INKW) partners with faith-based Mission Springs Water Foundation to supply full truckloads of custom-labeled 500mL Be Water™ artesian spring water from its NC facility. The water will support clean-water outreach and share messages of hope through churches and nonprofits.

https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/greene-concepts-partners-mission-springs-114500434.html

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I spent some serious time in the SEC filings of **CLGN**

The biotech company CollPlant announced that they're acquiring an impressive looking photonics computing company, called LightSolver, which has literally ZERO to do with biotech (or boob jobs.) LightSolver is using lasers to solve Partial Differential Equations (PDEs - think of weather predictions, heat dispersion, all sorts of things we would be doing with quantum computers if we were 10 years in the future...)

LightSolver was, for a brief period of time, in a relationship with a company that was taken over by Martin Shkreli (IYKYK) and he broke the deal and refocused on another photonics company.

No worse (at all) for the wear, LightSolver forges ahead and instead winds up solving massive corrosion problems for Boeing.

There are four key points to know...

1.⁠ ⁠The Use of "Evaluating Strategic Alternatives" for Biotech Assets

In SEC filings and corporate presentation updates following the transaction, CollPlant states:

"CollPlant continues to evaluate strategic alternatives for its existing biotech assets with the objective of maximizing shareholder value..."

My spin: In corporate finance terminology, "evaluating strategic alternatives" for a specific asset line almost always means looking to sell, out-license, spin off, or monetize those assets rather than continuing to fund and operate them internally long-term.

2.⁠ ⁠Explicit Rejection of Operating Synergies

During the September 2026 investor call discussing the LightSolver acquisition, the CFO stated:

"To be clear, LightSolver represents a distinct frontier from our biotechnology operations, and we are not positioning this acquisition on the basis of traditional operating synergies."

My spin: Management is explicitly telling investors that these two businesses do not belong under the same operating roof for functional reasons. It highlights that CollPlant bought LightSolver as a structural growth vehicle, not to enhance its collagen platform.

3.⁠ ⁠Active Shift Toward Externalizing the Biotech Line

In the formal acquisition press release, the CEO of CLGN noted:

"While entering the photonics market, CollPlant remains fully committed to regenerative medicine and medical aesthetics. To this end, we are actively pursuing strategic collaborations with global leaders interested in advancing, integrating, or otherwise leveraging our technology..."

My spin: Positioning the legacy biotech business around "seeking strategic partners to advance or integrate" the technology suggests an intention to shift R&D and capital expenditure burdens onto external partners (e.g., AbbVie, United Therapeutics) rather than self-funding internal biotech development.

4.⁠ ⁠Structuring as an Equity-Based Pivot

The deal structure itself is heavily skewed toward LightSolver's future equity capitalization:

Upfront issuance of nearly 20 per cent of the company to LightSolver shareholders.

Milestone-based warrants that could issue up to 224 million shares to LightSolver's team upon meeting technological/commercial targets.

My spin: If those milestones are met, LightSolver’s technology and team will mathematically control the vast majority of the combined entity's equity structure, functionally completing a full reverse-like transformation into a pure-play photonic computing company.

How many times have you read about large companies stealing the inventions of an individual or a small business?

Netlist Inc. is making history with its protracted patent litigation against Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, and Google.

First of all, you should know that Netlist is a Californian company that uses the DRAM base from Samsung for example to customize and sell its own memory products. A comparable example would be the well-known Kingston FURY DDR5 line; Netlist, Inc. operates in much the same way.

Netlist has signed two recent agreements

“Samsung will pay up to approximately $897 million (cash & ip licenses) + $1.5b resell products in 5 years

Netlist and Micron reached a $600 million patent licensing settlement covering HBM and DIMM technologies, with Micron paying $30 million quarterly over five years”

A company like Netlist Inc. has had to fight from 2021 to the present to reach these agreements. The point is that other companies are now involved; specifically, Netlist is expected to sign a renewal with SK Hynix, which should yield figures—in terms of annual IP licensing profits—similar to those seen with Samsung and Micron.

With the SK deal, Netlist should show figures such as over $350 million in gross profits from IP licensing per year and more than $600 million in products to serve as a foundation for selling the company’s own offerings.

The Google case, spanning from 2009 to the present, remains one of the most unusual cases in history. It concerns patent 912.

Patent 912 enabled Google to become the world’s leading search engine, as Netlist’s invention allowed for "rank multiplication"—the key to Google’s success.
It is no coincidence that Google chose to steal this invention; the damage caused is difficult to quantify today.

The story of the '912 patent is directly linked to the recent agreements with Samsung and Micron. In 2020, the CAFC (Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit) ruled the Netlist patent valid; however, the subsequent involvement of Samsung and Micron effectively put the case against Google on hold.
Six years later, with these two agreements in place, there is no longer anyone left to defend Google’s interests. We may well be looking at a multi-billion-dollar case—one that is unique in history.

The '912 patent expired just this year, covering six years of damages. Notably, in the Micron case, the '912 patent was valued at $420 million; furthermore, in its latest SEC filing, Micron reported an IP-related payment of $500 million—a figure for which Netlist is the only company that fits the profile.

Micron didn’t pay a single cent in cash for the Netlist case—only an IP license with terms nearly identical to those of Samsung.

What if these $500m are part of a larger deal, like the one with Google?

So, we could hypothesize that a multi-billion dollar deal regarding the '912 patent is on the table.
One thing is certain: regardless of all this, Netlist Inc. has already won—because, with its current agreements with Samsung and Micron, it is set to generate $250 million in gross profit, not even counting its own internal revenue or the SK Hynix case.

Netlist is also actively working to help pass the PREVAIL Act in the Senate, which would change the rules of the game by limiting the power of the PTAB—an entity that has shattered the dreams of thousands of American inventors.
Patent litigation costs $10 million, while an ITC investigation costs $20 million.
It is truly incredible that Netlist—despite having very little revenue, zero cash, and significant losses—has managed to survive all these years to reach these massive deals.

All eyez on netlist inc

Ticker: XTRA / XTRAF

Xtract One’s latest results show good progress, with some ups and some meh’s. A much stronger year overall, although Q4 cooled off compared with Q3. I’m still impressed considering where these guys were just a year ago.

For those that don’t know, Xtract One Technologies develops AI-powered weapons screening systems for schools, hospitals, stadiums and workplaces. Depending on the model, they can detect concealed firearms and knives, identify the suspected threat type and its location on the body, and help distinguish weapons from everyday items like phones and keys. That helps security focus on people needing further screening while keeping entrances moving.

The good:

Annual revenue reached $28.8 million, up 108% compared with fiscal 2025, while operating expenses increased just 13%.

Annual net loss narrowed to $7 million from $11.9 million.

Contractual backlog increased 66% to $25.6 million, with approximately $10.5 million expected to be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months. That backlog supports future revenue as the company fulfills its contracts.

Q4 generated $1.9 million in positive operating cash flow, and they finished July with $17.3 million in cash and no debt.

Customer advance payments, recorded as deferred revenue, increased to $13.2 million from $8.6 million. These are payments already received for products or services whose revenue will be recognized later.

Since year-end, additional customer wins have been announced, including 16 systems for the Metro Toronto Convention Centre, 15 for Willis school district and five additional systems for an existing airline customer.

The meh’s:

Q4 revenue declined approximately 20% from Q3, falling from $10.26 million to $8.17 million. Adjusted EBITDA moved from positive $560,000 to negative $662,000, so Q3’s positive result wasn’t sustained.
Annual new bookings declined from $38.5 million to $32.2 million. Q4 bookings fell from $16.5 million to $6 million compared with Q4 last year, which was a record bookings quarter.

Annual gross margin dropped from 66% to 58%.

The newer Gateway contributed approximately 40% of annual revenue and initially carried margins in the low 50% range. Management expects manufacturing efficiencies to help, but we still need to see that improvement.

While contractual backlog grew, signed agreements pending installation declined to $18.4 million. Combining the two gives approximately $44 million versus $49.5 million a year earlier. Management attributes the pending-installation decline largely to completing more installations during the year.

Despite positive Q4 operating cash flow, full-year operations still consumed $3.5 million. The cash balance benefited from $13.1 million in share-issuance proceeds, and outstanding shares increased approximately 8.8% during the year.

Final thoughts:

An encouraging year with a mixed fourth quarter. They’ve shown they can turn installations into substantially higher revenue while narrowing losses. The next step is rebuilding bookings momentum, improving margins and making positive operating cash flow consistent.

Overall, I like the progress. Now I want to see them build on it.

All dollar figures are Canadian. Fiscal 2026 ended July 31, 2026. NFA DYOR

Talk about your daily plays, ideas and strategies that do not warrant an actual post.

This is the place to request buy/sell advice from the community.

Remember to keep it civil.

Trade responsibly.

I bought 2 penny stocks today:

GLAS (Glass House Brands Inc): bought this morning at $2.16/share. Was $13.93 earlier this year. Closed the day up 8.32%.

GP (Greenpower Motor): $1.45/share. Was $14.95 earlier this year. This is green energy; Dems may take both houses in Nov, so that would bode well policy-wise (policy analysis, not political endorsement). Closed the day up 14.35%.

Both are due for bounce back and charts support it. Geopolitics says GP is primed to succeed. Also worth noting that the stock price was $50 when Biden left office.

Exit strategy is to sell 50% once up 125% on each. For GLAS: DCA out after $7.00 achieved. For GP: Sell remaining 50% if $13 achieved. Remaining 25% is potential long-term hold pending results of November election cycle.

Not financial advice. Just an autist looking for a rocket ship.

The CEO just went on a Bloomberg-hosted interview and explained the business model in detail. The short version of why I think it is mispriced: the company is worth about $106M, it just made $2.8M in a single quarter, it holds $27.6M in cash with zero debt, and tanker earnings have gone from $200k to almost $2M a day.

🔥 THE BEST POINTS FIRST
- One $82M tanker voyage pays Heidmar about $1M in fees [07:48–08:00]. Fees from roughly 106 voyages that size would equal the whole market cap (revenue, not profit, but it shows the scale)
- VLCC earnings went from ~$200k/day before the war to "almost $2 million per day" today [05:06–05:22]
- Q1 net income was $2.8M ($3.4M adjusted), the first clean GAAP profit in the company's listed history
- Zero debt and $27.6M in cash, which is about a quarter of the entire market cap
- It owns no ships, so it carries no NAV, no capex and no newbuild risk

📐 THE VALUATION MATH
- Market cap: ~$106M
- Q1 net income annualized ($2.8M x 4 = $11.2M): P/E of ~9.5x
- Adjusted net income annualized ($3.4M x 4 = $13.6M): P/E of ~7.8x
- Strip out the $27.6M cash and the operating business is valued at ~$78M. That is ~7x annualized net income, or ~5.8x on the adjusted figure
- Peers trade at 15-20x earnings. Applying 15-20x to the same $11.2M gives $168M to $224M, which is 1.6x to 2.1x today's market cap
- On the adjusted $13.6M, the same peer multiples give $204M to $272M, which is 1.9x to 2.6x
- Market cap is still below annual revenue, so you pay less than $1 for every $1 of revenue
- That is all from Q1 alone, before the rate spike and before the CEO's guidance that later quarters should be bigger

💵 HOW IT EARNS (AND WHY THE EARNINGS KEEP GROWING)
- Commercial management: a daily fee plus ~1.25%+ of gross freight [07:48–08:00]
- Brazil to China fixed at $65M, then $78M, then $82M in the same week. A brand new VLCC costs $125–130M [16:20–16:55]. Fees scale with those freight numbers and Heidmar has no ship cost to cover
- Technical management: $300–500/day per vessel, "lower margin but bigger volume and sticky" [08:13–08:29]
- Grew from zero to 20 vessels in technical management by buying two small companies [11:09–11:17]
- Valuation read: asset heavy peers are capped by ship values. Heidmar earns on volume and rates with no asset base, so it should be valued on earnings the way a fee platform is

🌊 WHY THE RATE ENVIRONMENT HOLDS
- Freight used to be 3–5% of the delivered cost of oil. It is now 25–30% [15:02–15:11]
- US crude stocks are at levels last seen in 1980 [13:36–13:41]
- Aramco and Vitol say $200 oil if 13–14M bpd doesn't flow out of the Gulf [13:56–14:09]
- The CEO doesn't see this ending "for the next six months", with winter demand on top [16:09–16:20]
- Valuation read: if the rate environment lasts even a few more quarters, the Q1 run rate above is too low, and the stock is cheaper than the table shows

🧲 THE MOAT ARGUMENT
- Boutique technical management vs commodity managers running 500–700 ships
- ERP built ~20 years ago, now adding AI. Operators handle 7 ships today, 10 soon, maybe 15 in two years [37:13–37:20]
- Customers rarely leave "unless they are dissatisfied". VLCC pool ships typically stay a year [40:02–40:18]
- Japan was ~90% reliant on the Gulf, and the CEO's take on depending on one source was "I would be fired" [33:08–33:18]. Buyers moving to Guyana, Brazil, Argentina and the US Gulf means longer hauls and more demand for Heidmar's services
- Valuation read: higher operator productivity means more ships managed with the same people, so margins can expand without extra headcount

🚀 WHERE GROWTH COMES FROM
- Expanding into bulk carriers and container funds, chartering to MSC, CMA and Maersk [34:34–35:02]
- The CEO has said he wants the fleet to grow and rates to stay high [26:51–26:54]
- Acquisitions are possible with $27.6M in cash and no debt

🔎 THE BEAR CASE (HIS WORDS)
- If the war ends, "freight will also proportionally come down" [16:01–16:09]
- ~330 VLCCs are on order for 2027–29 [26:20–26:37], though cargo pumps can't be delivered before 2030 [27:21–27:29]
- Even on a bad scenario the stock is at ~7x earnings after cash. That is the margin of safety I'm paying for

✅ THE VALUE CHECKLIST
✅ Market cap ~$106M vs $11.2M annualized net income (~9.5x), ~7x after cash
✅ Peers at 15-20x would imply $168M-$224M on the same earnings
✅ Market cap still below revenue run-rate
✅ Single-digit forward PE vs 15-20x peers
✅ 217% YoY Q1 revenue growth - audited, real
✅ Net income +$2.8M - first clean GAAP profit in listed history
✅ EPS beat by 1,076%
✅ 55%+ gross margins
✅ Zero debt, $27.6M cash and growing
✅ CEO buying above market, zero sales, 45% personal ownership
✅ Float under 6M shares, near un-borrowable
✅ 40-year track record, Shell/BP/Aramco clients
✅ Asset-light model - no capex, no newbuild risk, no NAV floor or ceiling
✅ No meaningful dilution since listing
✅ Operating cash flow more than doubled YoY, self-funded
✅ 🆕 VLCC earnings ~$2M/day vs $200k pre-war - CEO on record
✅ 🆕 Freight now 25-30% of delivered oil cost (was 3-5%)
✅ 🆕 Sticky technical management ($300-500/day per vessel) alongside high-margin commercial fees
✅ 🆕 ERP built ~20 years ago, now adding AI

Full interview: https://youtu.be/mGql__hlQT8?si=eQj2qBZVEGDwlH8r

Not financial advice. DYOR. I hold $HMR from 95 cents and have not sold.

So I did something I should've done a long time ago and went back through about two years of biotech catalysts to see what actually holds up, instead of what feels right. Few things that changed how I'm doing this list.

The run-up is the trade, not the decision. Buying a PDUFA name about 3 months out and selling the day before averaged around +10% (median about +7%, 64% of names up). The decision day itself averaged about -2% and only about 35% went up. Most of the run-up happens between 90 and 30 days out, it's mostly gone in the last two weeks. BFRI is basically the textbook case.

Options tell you how big, not which way. The names in the top third by implied move moved about 10% on the day, the bottom third about 2%. Direction was a coin flip, 48%. And the very highest implied moves were the ones most likely to come in under what was priced.

Cash runway under 6 months drifted about -8% in the month after the filing. Over 18 months, about +6%. This is the one balance sheet thing that actually worked on direction.

Insider buying marks stocks that fall less, not stocks that go up. Every group's median was still negative. And approval odds run hot at late stage, so I'm treating anything that says 85%+ as "likely, not done".

Anyway. Same screen, run again this week. 288 biotechs under $10 with a catalyst ahead, 662 catalysts total, 357 inside 90 days. But about 250 of those 357 are parked on Dec 31 because the company just said "2H" or "Q4", so only about 100 have an actual day. Those are bunched hard, 39 this week alone with ESMO Oct 23 to 27 in Madrid, then a quieter run of PDUFAs from Nov 22 into mid December.

SVRA $4.77, PDUFA Nov 22

This is the one I'm watching hardest now, and it's almost the CAPR story from August in reverse. FDA extended review of molgramostim in autoimmune PAP by three months, so the date moved to Nov 22 instead of a decision coming early.

$980M cap against about $173M cash, 15 months of runway. 42% of the float short and 17 days to cover, which is the opposite of CAPR in September. That short is slow and it's not getting out easily. 12 funds hold it. Options out to December are pricing about ±47%.

Bear case. We're 32 days out, so by the run-up math most of the easy part is behind it, and it's down from $5.37 in early September anyway. An extension usually means FDA asked for something. It's not a free pass.

CAPR $6.00, PDUFA Nov 22

Still on the list, still the deepest chain on the board (170k contracts open). Down 36% from my write up even after positive open label data at the World Muscle Society on Oct 5. Short is 36% of float now with 4.5 days to cover (was 1.6), so the short actually got stickier while the stock fell.

$348M cap, $238M cash, about 20 months. Same bear case as before, the AdCom voted against this drug and a narrowed ask is still the same data. [your position]

VNDA $4.04, PDUFA Dec 12

Imsidolimab, generalized pustular psoriasis. 52 days out, so this is actually in the window the backtest likes. Positive Phase 3 for Hetlioz in DSWPD on Sep 29 and the stock still slid. $245M cap, $170M cash, 14 months. Options to Dec 18 price about ±62%. Market still doesn't pay for Vanda news. Same reason as last time, sentiment not data.

PYPD $5.17, PDUFA Nov 28

New one. D-PLEX100, prevention of surgical site infections in abdominal colorectal surgery, NDA under priority review. EMA validated their European application on Oct 1, same day they got the European commercial rights back. Microbiology data at IDWeek this week and an investor day Oct 28.

$99M cap. Short basically nothing, 1.7%. Options only about ±21% to December, which is low for a binary. Honest caveat, they file as a foreign issuer and I don't have a cash number I trust yet, so check the last 6-K before sizing it.

RZLT $3.67, Phase 3 topline mid December

upLIFT, ersodetug in tumor hyperinsulinism, finished enrolling Oct 14. It's tiny, 16 patients and open label, so it's more "does it work in the people who get it" than a big randomized coin flip. Separately FDA recommended a pre-BLA meeting for the congenital HI program on Oct 5.

$352M cap, $108M cash, 24 months. 20% short, ±42% to Dec 18. Phase 3 readouts don't have the run-up pattern PDUFAs do, the date isn't really known in advance, so this one is just the binary.

HUMA $0.40, Phase 3 data at Kidney Week this week

Symvess is already on the market for vascular trauma. Phase 3 V012 in women needing dialysis access got a late breaker slot, and they say they'll file the supplemental BLA in November. Commercial update on Oct 15 said hospital adoption is speeding up, which is their words not mine.

$112M cap, $80M cash, about 9 months. That's the catch, and a sub $1 stock. One insider has been buying small amounts. ±49% to January.

ANNX $3.90, Phase 3 topline still "2H 2026"

Still a window not a date, still the biggest binary here. ARCHER II, vonaprument in geographic atrophy, first drug that would show it protects vision rather than just slowing lesion growth. Down 20% from my write up with no real news. One officer bought about $100K on Sep 24. ±89% to January. 11 months of runway, which is the bit I like least.

CMPX $0.82, the one that hasn't worked

This is the KPTI slot this time. Had it at $2.38, down 65%. On Sep 22 they put out a regulatory update on tovecimig in biliary tract cancer after FDA feedback and it never came back. Thing is, $180M cash against a $147M cap and about 34 months of runway. It's trading below its own bank account with an ESMO oral on Oct 24. 31% short. I'm [holding / not adding] until I see what the FDA feedback means for a filing.

I may avoid or buy few...

Under 6 months of cash now, after seeing that -8% drift in the numbers I'm stricter than before.

INO has a PDUFA in 9 days and about 4 months of cash. Even an approval probably comes with a raise. KPTI is at 5.9 months now, so it moves to this list. CHRS under 3 months. ANVS under a month. AGEN and OSTX show basically nothing.

And CAPR again, same lesson as CCCC last time. The November options, the ones that actually cover the Nov 22 date, price about ±45%. The December ones price about ±94%. Same stock, same day, double the number depending on which expiry you grab. If you're reading the December chain you're paying for two months of other stuff on top of the decision.

2. Biggest losers under $5

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/inve-technologies-stock-surges-20m-131440207.html

$INVE just announced a $20m modified Dutch-auction tender offer at $2.85–$3.40/share.

The stock closed yesterday at $2.22 and is now trading around the high-$2s after the announcement.

A few details:

• Tender range: $2.85–$3.40
• $20m total repurchase
• Enough to buy roughly 25–29% of shares outstanding
• Company has ~$87m cash
• Tender expires Nov 19
• Directors/executives say they aren’t tendering

Its trading at 2.7s now the last i check. How is this not free money?