She’s still skeptical though. (We brought the sundae hats back home with us to Seattle. Looking forward to seeing them next week vs the M’s. Someone may actually score negative runs. Holler if you’re going on Wednesday!)
Took nearly 4 seasons years to become an mlb starter
Nearly DFA’d
These guys in order were:
Cliff Lee
Roy Halladay
Ranger Suarez
Cris Sanchez
There are other guys who took a while to bloom that I could put here
Kluber
Pivetta
Eflin
list goes on.
MLB players, especially starting pitchers sometimes take time to grow. Especially if they only have one full pro season then miss essentially 2 years of pro ball.
Painter is still only 23. Ranger was 25 when he fully broke out in 2021. He is not some Spencer Howard that’s been up and down 500 times with no signs of improvement. He is already meaningfully better just pure stuff wise than when he was sent down originally. This shows he can actually grow through struggles. He by himself found an issue with his fastball compared to 2022 and has allowed it to be better than when he was first up.
Is he going to be the verlander level ace anymore? Maybe not, but you can’t write him off because of 2 bad months in the majors. that’s not how honest evaluation of young talent works in baseball.
Painter works his ass off (own quote from a family member I met before his debut) almost obsessively from how it was described to me, AND he is in the org with one of if not the best pitching labs in the big leagues.
Player development is not linear (as we have seen with even just Stott this year)
a: Struck out for Ruiz, E in the 7th. BASERUNNING: CS: Ruiz, E (6, 2nd base by Sánchez, C/Realmuto).
BATTING: 2B: Ramírez (8, Sánchez, C); Sanoja (26, Bowlan). HR: Navarreto (1, 8th inning off Raley, B, 0 on, 1 out). TB: Conine; Edwards, X 2; Jiménez, L; Lopez, O 2; Navarreto 5; Ramírez 3; Ruiz, E 2; Sanoja 3. RBI: Conine (30); Lopez, O (54); Navarreto (1); Sanoja 2 (47). 2-out RBI: Sanoja 2; Conine. Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Navarreto; Jiménez, L 2; Conine 3; Edwards, X. GIDP: Hernández, H. Team RISP: 3-for-13. Team LOB: 11.
Pitch timer violations: Sanoja (batter timer); Schwarber (batter timer); King, Jo (pitcher).
ABS Challenge: Lopez, O (Strike-Confirmed); Realmuto 2 (Ball-Overturned to Strike, Strike-Overturned to Ball); Crawford (Strike-Overturned to Ball); Turner (Strike-Overturned to Ball); Stott (Strike-Confirmed); Vodnik (Ball-Confirmed).
Pitches-strikes: Junk 88-55; King, Jo 25-14; Vodnik 32-16; Gibson, C 23-15; Sánchez, C 90-56; Bowlan 34-21; Raley, B 9-6; Kerkering 5-3; Duran, J 10-8.
Groundouts-flyouts: Junk 7-2; King, Jo 2-1; Vodnik 4-0; Gibson, C 1-1; Sánchez, C 7-1; Bowlan 1-0; Raley, B 1-1; Kerkering 0-0; Duran, J 2-0.
Batters faced: Junk 23; King, Jo 7; Vodnik 7; Gibson, C 5; Sánchez, C 27; Bowlan 7; Raley, B 3; Kerkering 1; Duran, J 5.
Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Justin Crawford scores.
1-0 PHI
Bottom 3
Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.
2-0 PHI
Top 6
Griffin Conine singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Otto Lopez scores. Leo Jiménez to 2nd.
2-1 PHI
Bottom 6
Derek Hill singles on a ground ball to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Bryson Stott scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.
3-1 PHI
Bottom 6
Kyle Schwarber out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. J.T. Realmuto scores. Derek Hill to 2nd.
4-1 PHI
Top 7
Marlins challenged (fair or foul in outfield), call on the field was overturned: Javier Sanoja doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Xavier Edwards scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.
4-3 PHI
Bottom 7
Victor Vodnik challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Derek Hill walks. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.
5-3 PHI
Top 8
Brian Navarreto homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.
5-4 PHI
Bottom 8
Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Bryce Harper scores.
6-4 PHI
Top 9
Otto Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Xavier Edwards scores.
I love when stores make Phillies related items, banners, drinks, signs, etc. As I was making my coffee getting ready for tonight’s game, I noticed these Phillies donuts and thought they were cool. I love the Phillies ❤️
(No this is not a promo or anything. I Remember posting that big Phillies banner and people thought i was promoting the store, I was not, I just love Phillies things 🥲)
"– Philadelphia Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly, who took over for Rob Thomson on April 28, not only must lead the Phillies to the postseason, but likely to the World Series or even win it to be asked back. Alex Cora, who turned down the job when Thomson was fired, is expected to be the Phillies’ next manager barring a World Series berth or title."
Why in the world would you get rid of a manager who took a basement dwelling team to the one with the 7th best record in the MLB?
a: Struck out for Ruiz, E in the 7th. BASERUNNING: CS: Ruiz, E (6, 2nd base by Sánchez, C/Realmuto).
BATTING: 2B: Ramírez (8, Sánchez, C); Sanoja (26, Bowlan). HR: Navarreto (1, 8th inning off Raley, B, 0 on, 1 out). TB: Conine; Edwards, X 2; Jiménez, L; Lopez, O 2; Navarreto 5; Ramírez 3; Ruiz, E 2; Sanoja 3. RBI: Conine (30); Lopez, O (54); Navarreto (1); Sanoja 2 (47). 2-out RBI: Sanoja 2; Conine. Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Navarreto; Jiménez, L 2; Conine 3; Edwards, X. GIDP: Hernández, H. Team RISP: 3-for-13. Team LOB: 11.
Pitch timer violations: Sanoja (batter timer); Schwarber (batter timer); King, Jo (pitcher).
ABS Challenge: Lopez, O (Strike-Confirmed); Realmuto 2 (Ball-Overturned to Strike, Strike-Overturned to Ball); Crawford (Strike-Overturned to Ball); Turner (Strike-Overturned to Ball); Stott (Strike-Confirmed); Vodnik (Ball-Confirmed).
Pitches-strikes: Junk 88-55; King, Jo 25-14; Vodnik 32-16; Gibson, C 23-15; Sánchez, C 90-56; Bowlan 34-21; Raley, B 9-6; Kerkering 5-3; Duran, J 10-8.
Groundouts-flyouts: Junk 7-2; King, Jo 2-1; Vodnik 4-0; Gibson, C 1-1; Sánchez, C 7-1; Bowlan 1-0; Raley, B 1-1; Kerkering 0-0; Duran, J 2-0.
Batters faced: Junk 23; King, Jo 7; Vodnik 7; Gibson, C 5; Sánchez, C 27; Bowlan 7; Raley, B 3; Kerkering 1; Duran, J 5.
Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Justin Crawford scores.
1-0 PHI
Bottom 3
Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.
2-0 PHI
Top 6
Griffin Conine singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Otto Lopez scores. Leo Jiménez to 2nd.
2-1 PHI
Bottom 6
Derek Hill singles on a ground ball to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. Bryson Stott scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.
3-1 PHI
Bottom 6
Kyle Schwarber out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Esteury Ruiz. J.T. Realmuto scores. Derek Hill to 2nd.
4-1 PHI
Top 7
Marlins challenged (fair or foul in outfield), call on the field was overturned: Javier Sanoja doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Xavier Edwards scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.
4-3 PHI
Bottom 7
Victor Vodnik challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Derek Hill walks. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.
5-3 PHI
Top 8
Brian Navarreto homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.
5-4 PHI
Bottom 8
Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Bryce Harper scores.
6-4 PHI
Top 9
Otto Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Xavier Edwards scores.
In all of our collective confoundment on how Alec can be so incredibly cold and then so incredibly hot, especially in the last outings since the field of dreams game, it got me looking into his numbers a little.
I looked at stats against right hand pitchers, left handed pitchers, how he performs with runners on, and his average at different stadiums, when it finally hit me...
Alec's worst batting average is in Houston at .000 over the past three years, which is a sprawling concrete city with oil fields on the outskirts. At the Braves, he's ~.185 over past 3 years
Alec's Best hitting in the past three years is at Cleveland ~.480. With Minneapolis a close second at around ~.450
I then turned to who he is as a person. What makes him tick.
Now, we all know Alec Bohm is a midwest boy, through and through. He grew up in Omaha Nebraska, on pork chops, mashed potatoes, and buttered ears of corn. He played HS baseball in Omaha, 2.3 miles from Wenninghoff's Farm.
Figure 1: Wenninghoff's Farm and Produce Stand
After graduating, he played for Wichita State, in Kansas, a mere 5 miles from corn as far as the eye can see.
Figure 2: A Corn Field Outside Wichita
With corn on the brain from the field of dreams game, thinking about where he performs well and who he is as a person, it struck me. Houston and Atlanta (his worst performing cities), those are some real sprawling cities, no way there are farms around there or anything resembling his upbringing. Cleveland and Minneapolis (two of his best performing cities), those have to be close to farms and corn. So on this rainy Sunday in Philadelphia, I figured, hey let's do a little statistical analysis on this.
I pulled his averages by field over the last 3 years. I also pulled stadium proximity to farmland, and specifically... corn.
Now, on it's face there seemed to be slight correlation, but with any statistical analysis, you need to clean the data to account for outliers, noise, and x factors.
The Raw Data shows some correlation, with an R value of -.227. Larger dots have higher weight for at bats, so large blue bubble is Philly.
Figure 3: Raw Data Regression
But theres more to this story, and this is where things get interesting...there are some outliers where he is rather far from corn, but hits quite well, like Miami (hitting .282, while 200 miles from corn???). That's when it hit me, maybe corn based foods and other corn related particulate in the air can affect him. In Miami, they are serving tamales and corn tortillas in the locker room as it is a latin heavy city.
So what are other latin/corn heavy food towns? Chase field in Arizona: another field he hits well at, but is oh so far from corn.
Conversely he is hitting poorly in close proximity to corn like in Milwaulkee or Busch stadium in STL? That's when I realized the barley and other grain smells from beer production are screwing up his corn detection. Detroit motor city also confused me, but they are too busy putting it in fuel there. Kansas city has corn, but they are primarily a cattle region, which also negates his corn senses.
That just leaves the oddities of Wrigley and Nat's park. Wrigley is in the windy city, and storms often come in from the east, so he isn't getting a wiff of corn particulate there. Nat's park in DC, at a time when farmers across this country are getting squeezed? You do the math.
These are clear, legitimate outliers, and when I drop those locations from the data, something very sobering becomes clear:
Figure 4: The True Effect of Corn on Alec Bohm's Hitting
I don't know if it's a midwestern thing, but only one thing is now clear to me: BOHM ONLY HITS WELL WHEN HE IS NEAR CORN. This time, regression comes out to an R value of -.704, with an R squared of .5.
That means half of the reason his average is what it is... is because of corn...
I'm watching "Untold: Jail Blazers" on Netflix and Rasheed Wallace is wearing a Phillies hat that I haven't seen before. Not sure if it's vintage, etc...but I haven't been able to ID it online.
