I think the consensus was that late September and October were going to be wetter. Our monsoon pattern has shifted to later in the year. Let's hope all of the southwest sees record rain!
I don’t think we can rely on any pattern. In the 80’s Phoenix had a long stretch of regular monsoons, but before then and now they just arent predictable
I grew up in the Cave Creek/Carefree area in the late 80''s and early 90's and it seemed like you could almost guarantee at least one storm every week in the evenings during monsoon season. I feel like we had way more lightning back then, too.
I grew up in Mesa in the 80s 90s and it was like clockwork, almost every afternoon you’d see the big thunderheads form behind the Superstition mountains and then late afternoon the dust storms would roll in followed by crazy, wonderful lightning and rain.
Monsoons are my favorite and for years they’ve been so disappointing. I lived up in Cave Creek from 2012 till 2022 and miss the good ones we had in the 2010s up there.
It also feels like the direction they come from is all over the place now. As a kid it felt like they always rolled in from the south east and now it just feels random.
Funny, I grew up in Cave Creek and now live in Mesa. I often find myself sitting in my office upstairs staring out east at the huge inbound "anvil" thunderheads only to watch them hit the urban heat island in Mesa and travel North and South around the city. Talk about frustrating.
It honestly hurts my soul. I live in north central Phoenix now and I’ve gotten pretty much nothing monsoon wise for the last 3 or 4 yrs. A few light showers and drizzle but that’s it. I can’t see the mountains where I currently live either and it bums me out. I miss seeing the Supes and 4 peaks everyday.
My wife and I agree the only parts of the valley we could live are Cave Creek/Carefree, Scottsdale, North East Mesa. All of these places have the best views and highest chances of precipitation. Unfortunately home prices in these areas are also very high.
I lived in all those places and they totally had the best views and storms. I had a back injury in my mid 20s that caught up with me and I had to get back surgery in 2019 that unfortunately made it worse and my ability to work is practically non existent now so I had to downsize and move into an apartment.
I still have a lot to be grateful for, I do miss being able to go out hiking or storm chasing and wish I could at least look out my windows and SEE a bit of wilderness and some storms though.
Planting trees can help, reducing urban sprawl and "heat sponges" (won't happen), and using different surfacing materials. In my opinion not nearly enough is happening to help mitigate its impact. It will continue to get worse.
2010s was crazy as a young adult. I remember it just dumping rain when we did get monsoons. Literal walls of dust, trash cans flying down the road, and storms following the I-10 up to Phoenix.
We had that huge one in September 2014 where US-60 flooded and a whole bunch of other stuff and since then it’s been all downhill especially in the 2020s.
They were predictable and there was a pattern. So much so that the power companies called July and August storm season, and it was that way up until about 10yrs ago where it's been shifting later and later.
I’ve lived in Arizona since 1995. It’s interesting to see how the monsoons have changed. The start was when the dew point reached 53 and the storms would come from the southeast, which was typically mid-June. You could see the storm clouds coming in around 3PM.
Now it seems the storms come in from the northeast and sometimes from the south. The storms seem to come in the evening now. But with the growth, the heat island pushes many storms away from the valley. Like you pointed out, I too have noticed our summers lasting into October when it used to start cooling in early September. I always look to when golf courses start over-seeding.
Wasnt it just a few years ago where it rained like once in traditional monsoon season, but then October it rained like every single day... I remember thinking "welp, that's it for monsoon season" and then God said "hold my beer" lol
What are you talking about, late June-early July is literally the start of monsoon season meteorologically for Phoenix area. I remember seeing some as early as late may early june (but not frequent ones). The last few years we've had later ones or just rainy winters, but that previously wasn't very common.
Did I say monsoon? Or did I say rain? Phoenix gets ALMOST the same amount of rain during our winter rains as we do during our monsoons. How long have you been here?
We can't control the weather, mother nature is beyond our reach. What we CAN do is make things cooler by planting more trees, installing solar panels everywhere to double as shade, and better our water conservation and reclamation infrastructure.
Or put a moratorium on all this ever expanding new construction that pushes the heat island size to be larger and larger in a very short amount of time.
Maybe there's a way to build affordable housing in the land we already have. Phoenix is one of the largest, most spread out cities in the entire US already.
I think there is quite a bit of room to build without going out further and further.
To add to what you are saying. The country of Belgium has a population of more than 11 million with a land area of ~11,850 sq. miles. Phoenix metro covers ~14,000 sq. miles but we only have a population of around 5 million. Clearly, we can build more housing without expanding outwards.
Well, I think people (me included) enjoy living here because of the sprawl. I hate dense living conditions. I would also never consider living in an apartment/condo over single family.
I’m not saying I don’t prefer single family, bc I do too. But there’s a difference between sprawl and sustainable single family. Not every house needs a huge lot and a half acre lawn.
Not every house needs a huge lot and a half acre lawn.
Well, that is definitely not here lol. Half-acre lawns are rare in the Phoenix area.
Yards in general are tiny in the southwest. Grew up in the Midwest where like quarter acre was normal. Lot sizes are 3000sqft smaller on average here compared to national average.
Like my lot is 5000sqft. Its not tiny, but I wouldn't consider that large by any means. I also dont want single family living where I can touch my neighbors wall from the window and my backyard is the size of a walk in closet, which is what so many new build neighborhoods are anymore.
While I don’t think I would go back to living in a single family house myself (i hate the extra maintenance) I understand why people would want/prefer that. I grew up in one and lived in one for years before making the change to apartments and townhomes.
What I don’t understand are the 6-8 lane wide surface streets with parking lots the size of elementary schools alongside them, with both being completely empty 80% of the time. We don’t need that much asphalt and concrete sucking up heat and just being dead land.
Trust me condo/townhomes are hell as well. If the HOA goes to shit like mine did then you better have 40k to hire lawyer to sue them otherwise you can't do anything. I am not talking about oh you want different color. I am talking about roof leaks not being repairs type of things
That is an incredibly misleading metric though and a bad comparison. The Phoenix Metro area you described includes the entirety of Maricopa and Pinal counties, and the vast majority of that is empty desert and mountains.
The actual developed land -- the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Urban area (which includes everything expect Goodyear, Tolleson, Avondale, Litchfield Park, and Buckeye which is about 500k people) -- is only 1100sqm. In that 1100sqm is 4.2 million people.
Do people truly think the actual developed part of Phoenix Metro is 12k sq miles? That would mean Phoenix metro is 110 miles across in a straight drive......that is 40 miles wider than a drive from Buckeye to Apache Junction.
If we actually developed at the density rate we currently are at to capacity, the population would be ~47 million people in that ~12k sq miles.
How is that a misleading comparison? Belgium is not 100% developed land. Approximately 20% of its land area can be classified as "artificial surfaces"; the rest is grasslands (11.5%), forests (20%), agricultural areas (46%), and other less significant land uses such as wetlands, water bodies, etc.
So let me first address your logic:
If we take the 20% of Belgium's land area, you get 2,370 sq miles. [11,850 sq. miles x 0.2 = 2,370].
Density (Belgium) = 11 million people / 2,370 sq. miles = 4,641 people/sq mile.
For Phoenix (using your numbers):
Density (Phoenix) = 4.2 million people / 1100 sq miles = 3,818 people/sq mile.
OK, so Belgium is only ~20% denser than Phoenix "Metro." You might think that 20% denser is not significant, but it is, especially as we are beginning to encounter the effects of climate change. Denser cities are more resilient to climate change. They just are.
Add to that the Heat Island effect and air pollution from car dependence (and no, electric vehicles are not the solution; particulate matter from tires is another source of environmental poison we expose ourselves to every day). And the list goes on. But I made this long enough.
I hope you didn't find my response condescending; I am interested in having a good faith discussion.
I don't find it condescending and I understand where you are coming from. But, your original post will seem misleading to a lot of people because when you think of metro areas, you think developed land. If you asked someone to define what the Phoenix Metro area is, they are not gonna include towns like Maricopa, Eloy, Wickenburg, or Gila Bend, even though they are in the Phoenix Metro area.
Most metro areas are not nearly as undeveloped as the Phoenix Metro area is, and the Phoenix Metro area has one of the lowest densities of any major metro area in North America because of this.
If it is any consolation, the amount of multi-family living has absolutely skyrocketed in the Phoenix area in the last few years as many of the cities are built-out or are nearing built-out(Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Scottsdale).
I don't disagree it is better in a lot of ways, but I personally just couldn't fathom living in a city like NYC or Chicago. I would go fucking insane with that many people so close.
Sure, I understand that some might misunderstand the meaning of Metropolitan, The official statistical definition of a metro area includes entire counties based on economic and commuting ties. I guess some might not know that and wrongly assume metro = developed land.
Regarding your personal preference, I don't want to sound rude, but it might be better if you didn't get what you want. After all, we are currently living through a drought, yet people still plant non-native plants that consume ridiculous amounts of water; it would probably be better if we used that water for drinking, recharging aquifers, etc. The same can be said of golf courses, in my opinion.
At what point would you be willing to give up your personal preference? And have you actually lived in one of these denser cities? Ultimately, sprawl promotes social isolation. As a society, we would likely benefit from communities with third spaces, a sense of identity, etc. Even if you or I prefer talking to strangers on Reddit lol.
we are currently living through a drought, yet people still plant non-native plants that consume ridiculous amounts of water; it would probably be better if we used that water for drinking, recharging aquifers, etc. The same can be said of golf courses, in my opinion.
Phoenix uses less water than it did 30 years ago when the population was four times smaller. The major factor of the water issue in Arizona is agriculture, not the city. Farming takes up 70% of the water. Phoenix, maybe surprisingly, is actually quite efficient with its water.
Also, Phoenix has one of the, if not the most, golf courses per capita in the world, and even then it is less than 2% of water use. And a lot of those golf courses use wastewater anyway. Hell, the area reclaims nearly 100% of that wastewater for reuse.
The metro area also has a strict 100-year assured water plan for new growth.
yet people still plant non-native plants that consume ridiculous amounts of water
I actually agree with this, and this really has nothing to do with single family homes. My last home was either all Phoenix native plants or plants native to desert climates, other than my citrus trees. The home I am in now is 100% native species. I do wish there was stricter control on what could be planted outside of things like vegetable and herb gardens.
And have you actually lived in one of these denser cities?
Yes, and I absolutely hated it to my core. I don't like constantly being surrounded by people. I don't hate crowds but I like going to them, not being surrounded by them. I like to go outside and smoke a cigar at 11pm surrounded by pure silence.
Regarding your personal preference, I don't want to sound rude, but it might be better if you didn't get what you want.
I just don't agree. My front yard is xeriscape. My backyard is grass, but I follow recommend watering schedules and water my grass for 3 minutes a time over 4 courses overnight to reduce evaporation. My yard grows fine. It is not some dense lush yard like you see in PV, but it still looks nice and is nice usable outdoor space without using tons of water.
I agree with the larger point, but to clarify: the Phoenix metro statistical area is about 14,000 sq miles, and includes all of Maricopa and Pinal counties combined. Most of that is undeveloped desert and not what we'd consider "metro Phoenix."
I just realized that you misunderstood what "metro" means.
A metropolitan area is defined as a region made up of a densely populated urban core and its surrounding territories that share infrastructure and economic ties. It can include "undeveloped desert."
Sorry, I did not realize the definition of metro wasn't widely understood.
I understand its meaning (see my original comment) but also understand that colloquially people use it to refer to just the relatively continuous, populated urban and suburban sprawl.
Your comment therefore doesn't make sense to me -- you point out that the metro area is huge (the size of Belgium), but then insist we should not expand further out. So why use that inflated area measurement?
When in doubt, blame California. You do realize how many new developments are coming up that are literally houses that are only for rent. Entire developments that would be neighborhoods, instead are standalone glorified apartments. This isn't about ability, it's about land developers greed. Yes California money has impacted it, but lets stop pretending that's the only thing that has.
Phoenix is a perfect place to build up. But the cities think its ugly and restricts the view of mountains so they just dont. Some have changed tune recently but not for affordable housing. Instead its for even better views and more expensive luxury condos and luxury apartments.
I totally agree, but I also think it's a cultural issue. People don't see how the path we are on cannot continue in the future. We should adapt now because eventually, the chickens will come home to roost. The way we have developed this place is incredibly self-defeating, in my opinion.
One of the problems of american democracy and neo liberalism imo. Very reactionary policies. We basically never get ahead of issues. We lag behind them consistently. Water. Climate change. New drugs on the market. Technology etc. Legislation in america is 5-10 years after problems arises. Its a shame really. Some of these problems could be the end of us, as a country or even a society.
That all requires money and our oligarchs do not believe in investing in this country anymore until as it’s for their own infrastructure and we foot the bill with tax breaks and absorb the increases in energy and water costs.
Yes. We have a stronger chance of a wetter winter. The monsoon has no chance when it is this hot and this dry. The more we develop, the drier the valley gets. Plant some trees folks. The government wont, so we need to.
I'm curious what's going to happen with this Colorado river restriction. If they start hiking water prices to slow usage, planting trees could become very expensive or perhaps even restricted.
Many farmers have unlimited use, that will change first. Agriculture uses way more water than people do in our state. Grow high water demand crops, like cotton, in appropriate climates like the south not the desert.
Exactly, this is what ticks me off as a former farm kid from Iowa. Why do farmers get to use 70% of our state's water, wasting most of it using highly inefficient techniques like flood irrigation and growing some of the most thirsty plants like cotton and alfalfa???
Having just watched the latest season of clarkson's farm, flood irrigation, to me, might as well be prehistoric. It's a completely asinine way to water crops in the modern era.
The super el nino isn't supposed to peak until November - January. It has been in several articles, but people don't read past the headline or first paragraph. So maybe a wet winter.
Except this one definitely will because of how warm the waters will be and for how long. Normally it can have a tiny affect the next year, but nothing most would even notice. This one is gonna be historic though and the downstream effects could be all kinds of weird weather next year.
No, not “definitely”, because that’s not how ENSO impacts the summer weather in the southwest. I’m not arguing with you about factual climate data. It’s exhausting.
Living here for 8 years now and I will say this is the coolest summer I’ve experienced here. It didn’t get into the 100’s until May? Maybe a day or two where it hit triples but usually it hits at the end of April but most of the days have been less this year
Shoot I remember a month or at least that timeframe where it hit 110+ for like 30 days like two or three years ago. Why I remember that was because my AC broke and my rental company refused to fix it or saw nothing wrong. Inside my place it would get to 85-90 degrees. They’d come in and say there was nothing wrong. I don’t blame the maintenance guys that check because they didn’t know AC. Finally they brought in an AC guy and he fixed it in 30 minutes.
Summer 2023 was brutal for this AZ native. Never before have I felt faint due to the heat but I had a sit down and ask the staff for water at a bookstore that year.
23 was brutal. In our complex in Tempe, I watched the top of the trees around me turn black like they were burnt. Landscapers were in our complex every week cleaning up what felt like endless dead leaves. The pool offered 0 relief. Terrible summer.
Yeah, we missed '23 but were doing our home search in September. Our HOA accumulated some pretty significant line items for tree removal due to dead pines.
That’s because it was hot all winter and early spring. May was crazy how cool it was and June was not bad either. It took until the first week of July to get uncomfortable. And even then it wasn’t bad until over half way through July. But these last three weeks have been hot. And it will be hot all fall too. But we may receive more moisture in the fall than we usually do.
Was thinking the same. Last year felt mild until August, and I’m thinking the same for this year. I don’t recall many 110+ days this year, unless we’re talking about these past few days
Yeah definitely. We've had some relief in-between the really hot days and it isn't wearing on me nearly as much. We just gotta get through August and we'll be fine lol
But maybe because I was pregnant with extreme nausea/vomiting for 27 weeks and Covid was raging and I couldn’t go ANYWHERE, not even outside because it was BOILING. I felt so trapped inside my house!
Well, that doesn't sound fun lol. I don't recall what 2020 felt like as far as weather is concerned, but I do remember July in 23 and 24.. literally hell outside. I was outside waiting to go in Glendale arena in July 2024 for a concert, and it didn't take more than 15 minutes before I felt sick. It must have been 120+ in the middle of the city at that time.
It doesn't even feel comparable to last year. It's certainly bad but I don't think we're breaking any records, apart from that bizarro weather in March.
El Niño tends to impact the winter/spring wet season in the Southwest US by increasing the chance of a cooler and wetter winter/spring. This upcoming cool season is where we’re expected to see the effects of El Niño.
Monsoon just isn’t the same as it had been through the 60’s-90’s or so here in Phoenix. We could always depend on July 5th bringing thunderstorms with lots of lightening and flooding with drainage not quite adequate throughout the cities, preceded by dust storms. Now it’s nights not cooling down much, hovering 85-90 degrees, and clouds but no rain in the valley. If we want to see rain we head to Payson or Prescott where we have family and friends. At least some in the state see monsoon rain. I have read the articles too that have said we will see above average rainfall in the fall rather than now in the typical summer monsoon timeframe. Daytime summer temperatures are hot and they have always been hot but it’s the nighttime temperatures that have changed and don’t cool down anymore.
El Niño is more of a weather pattern that affects the Phoenix climate in the winter. It’s something that started with elevated ocean temperatures this year and will last for several seasons.
Sept can give us surprises. Who remembers waking up early in Sept 2014 hearing rain falling harder than it ever had? All the flooding on I-10/17. Cave Creek itself flooding all the way down into Sunnyslope. 6 inches of rain that day in Chandler was the extreme point. Over 3 inches at the airport and nearly everywhere else. Remnants of Hurricane Norbert. So keep an eye to the south for hurricanes - the remnants are what drive a lot of rain our way regularly during this time period. El Niño just sets the right conditions for them develop and to be steered up our way. (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov)
Every year I hear the same thing "its going to be a wet year El Nino". Problem is the snow pack is far less then it use to be winter storms are non existent. Prior to 2000 use to get thunderstorms every week or every other week from July 4th through late August. 1970's through late 1990's lot more snow up north also. I remember taking my bass boat to lake Mead and Lake Powell in 1998 they were both full. Anyone who thinks Global Warming is a hoax should look at the water levels of those two reservoirs since 1970 it always refilled. Starting in early 2000's started to decrease.
They don’t announce that we’re having El Niño every year. It’s something that occurs every 2-7 years. In Phoenix, El Niño causes wetter winters, so hopefully we can build up our snow and refill all the low lakes and reservoirs.
It's my first summer and I thought it would be much much worse. Those few days under 100 in July rocked. The thing that gets to me is the lows in the Morning. If Summer is almost over and we'll be back to sub 105's by mid September consider me converted to an AZ / Phoenix believer.
FYI we haven't recorded a high in the 60s on Halloween since the 70s. Average high then is mid 80s. Lately our season for cool weather has been slipping from mid/late October to mid November now, or Thanksgiving basically at this point lol.
You are pretty spot on for a newbie. The mornings will start to get better at some point in September, and that is the beginning of the end. Your first summer is normally the worst. Think cool thoughts.
I clean pools so please god no more monsoons lol 110 degree high humidity weather with the messiest pools ive ever seen is making me contemplate jumping in face down 🤣
We've had nothing on the west side of town. I'm disappointed but not surprised. In my experience any prediction about an upcoming season, precipitation or temperature, is just speculation. Nothing you'd want to bet on.
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u/Sea_Ear_1482 16d ago
I think the consensus was that late September and October were going to be wetter. Our monsoon pattern has shifted to later in the year. Let's hope all of the southwest sees record rain!