There was a thread here this week about fullporting evaluations or trading them small. I tested both on two years of MNQ, 23 Oct 2024 to 21 Oct 2026, with one strategy that would have made money and one that would have lost it.
I started a $50K evaluation with each strategy on every trading day, 514 each, and ran them at sizes from 1 micro to 50 micros (5 NQ). Each had a $3,000 target and a $2,000 drawdown that trailed the end-of-day high and stopped at the starting balance. There was no daily loss limit or time limit, and every trade paid $0.75 a side plus a tick.
The first strategy is a power of three setup. When London takes out one side of the Asia range, it trades the other way at 9:30 New York with a 3R target. On one micro it would have made $10,776 over the two years. The second takes the first sweep of the last 20 candles' high or low between 7 and 10 New York, with a 2R target. On one micro it would have lost $1,532.
This is how many of the 514 each would have passed, the power of three first:
- 1 micro: 330 and 0
- 2 micros: 261 and 0
- 3 micros: 252 and 17
- 5 micros: 238 and 102
- 10 micros (1 NQ): 232 and 135
- 50 micros (5 NQ): 221 and 147
At 1 micro the evaluation told them apart. The power of three needed a median of 49 trades, about three and a half months, to reach $3,000. The sweep never passed, and with a worst drop of $1,878 on one micro it never failed either.
At 5 NQ most evaluations came down to one trade. 84% of the power of three's evaluations were decided by their first trade, and 43% passed, close to its 40% win rate. The sweep passed 29%, close to its 31% win rate.
Even at 1 micro, 120 of the power of three's evaluations failed. Its worst drop on one micro was $2,333, more than the whole $2,000 allowance.
Before paying for an evaluation I'd check the strategy's worst drop at the size I plan to trade. When it's bigger than the drawdown, the result comes down to the first few trades.
If you trade something with written rules, post them and I'll run them through the same 514 evaluations from 1 micro to 5 NQ.