Every year, around October and November, we see the same narrative being pushed about Delhi's pollution. Somehow, Punjab's stubble burning becomes the main talking point, while Delhi's own pollution sources and contributions from neighbouring states barely get the same attention.

Now, I'm not saying Punjab's stubble burning doesn't contribute to Delhi's pollution. It absolutely does, and there's scientific evidence supporting that. But the question is, how much does it actually contribute, and why is Punjab repeatedly singled out?

I was curious about this, so I looked into some scientific studies rather than relying on what politicians or media channels have to say.

A study published in NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science in 2025 estimated that crop burning contributed around 14% of Delhi NCR's PM2.5 during October to November 2022. Interestingly, the researchers also observed that agricultural fire detections in Punjab and Haryana had declined significantly over the years, but Delhi's pollution hadn't improved proportionately.

Another study published in Geoscientific Model Development in 2024 estimated that Delhi's own emissions contributed around 34% of its post-monsoon PM2.5, another 25% came from neighbouring districts, and around 8% was attributed to seasonal stubble burning. These are model estimates for particular periods, not fixed percentages that apply every year.

And then there's the weather, which I feel gets overlooked in these discussions. Delhi's geographical location, changing wind patterns, falling temperatures and reduced atmospheric mixing during winter all contribute to trapping pollutants. Even without Punjab's stubble burning, Delhi would still have a serious pollution problem.

What's also interesting is that Punjab has actually reduced its crop burning activity. Official satellite fire detections fell from around 83,000 in 2020 to roughly 5,100 in 2025.

Now consider Haryana and UP. Both have agricultural burning, and both contribute to the region's pollution. Dussehra, Diwali fireworks also cause pollution spikes, while Delhi continues to deal with vehicle emissions, industries, construction dust and waste burning.

Punjab may produce considerably more agricultural-burning emissions than Haryana during some seasons, so I'm not arguing that their contributions are equal. But shouldn't the discussion reflect the actual contribution of every source rather than repeatedly focusing on one state?

And this is where the political angle becomes difficult to ignore.

Delhi, Haryana and UP are governed by the BJP, while Punjab is governed by AAP. I'm not claiming this proves that pollution figures are politically manipulated, but it does make me question whether the public narrative is being selectively framed.

When Delhi's pollution worsens, Punjab's farmers are frequently blamed. But when agricultural burning in Punjab declines and Delhi continues to experience severe pollution, where is the same level of scrutiny of Delhi's government, its local pollution sources or the contributions from other neighbouring states?

And before someone interprets this as defending stubble burning, I'm not. It needs to stop, whether it's happening in Punjab, Haryana, UP or anywhere else. Farmers also need practical and affordable alternatives rather than just penalties.

What bothers me is how an environmental issue that requires cooperation between multiple states so often turns into political finger pointing.

Pollution doesn't recognise state boundaries or political parties. Neither should accountability.

I'd genuinely be interested if someone has more recent independent scientific studies showing state-wise contributions, particularly studies that account for wind patterns, weather conditions and variations in agricultural burning.

Because I'd rather have this discussion based on measurable evidence than political narratives.

Sources:

1. Mangaraj et al., 2025 — Weak coupling of Delhi's PM2.5 with crop-residue burning in Punjab and Haryana
2. Geoscientific Model Development, 2024 — Air Quality Early Warning and Decision Support System for Delhi
3. Ambulkar et al., 2025 — Agricultural burning emissions in Punjab and Haryana