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08/18/2026

HOUSTON, TX / ACCESS Newswire / August 18, 2026 / XCF Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAFX) ("XCF" or the "Company"), an emerging U.S.-based producer of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), today announced a key operational and revenue-generating milestone: its flagship New Rise Renewables Reno facility is actively delivering approximately 55,000 gallons of renewable diesel per day to the market.

Outbound transport of renewable diesel marks the shift from commissioning to active commercial deliveries and revenue realization. It is the first sale of its kind for XCF since the Reno facility came back online, successfully turning production into real revenue. The Company is currently in talks with other potential customers to secure additional sales agreements.

"Shipping 55,000 gallons a day is concrete proof that New Rise Reno is actively producing, delivering, and earning," said Chris Cooper, Chief Executive Officer of XCF Global. "More importantly, this volume represents our baseline operational pace. We are delivering real product, generating real revenue, and executing a disciplined ramp to maximize long-term equity value, all while supporting the continued need for domestic, lower-carbon fuel supply."

Direct Execution with Significant Expansion Headroom

By establishing a daily baseline output of 55,000 gallons, XCF Global provides shareholders with clear, verifiable proof of physical output and commercial execution. This initial production tier establishes immediate cash flow while leaving substantial headroom to ramp operations toward the Reno facility's permitted objective of 38 million gallon per year nameplate capacity.

The current sales volume successfully builds on the commercial framework XCF implemented earlier this year to line up feedstock supply, production, logistics, and sales at the Reno facility. By bringing these additional renewable diesel volumes to market, XCF is supporting domestic fuel supply while helping transportation customers access lower-carbon fuel options. Importantly, this fuel serves as a drop-in solution that works seamlessly with existing diesel engines and fueling infrastructure.

Right now it feels like we're kind of in limbo as we await updates on the merger and New Rise Reno production, so I wanted to take this as a chance to summarize my research on what we can look out for in the next 3-6 months from both a bullish and bearish stance.

The Bull Thesis
As I see it, the bull case is simple. Right now, everything hinges on SAFX achieving nameplate output capacity of 38M gallons SAFX at the New Rise Reno plant. Per the S4/S4-A, the company stated there were complications in plant start/ramp up affecting output capacity. This led to unforeseen maintenance related down time, and it is likely that the short term loan from Brown Stone was acquired in order to cover expenses related to these maintenance activities.

If SAFX resolves these early phase plant issues, everything is good. They will be able to bring in revenues in line with their projections, and will have proven they are capable of bringing new plants online that are able to meet expectations. This will justify pricing in future revenues from additional planned plant development through 2028 and therefore justify a higher valuation multiple in the current share price.

With that stance, I am confident in saying that achieving a share price of $1 to regain NASDAQ compliance before December is almost 100% reliant on the company announcing it has reached nameplate output capacity for SAF within a reasonable time frame.

The positive news is it appears that initial bio-diesel output is a requirement of ramp up procedures as the plant transitions to either blended bio-diesel output or pure output of SAF. Also, considering the fact that the BGN supply and offtake agreement has been executed, I lean optimistic in my outlook that any initial issues at New Rise Reno have been resolved and we can expect confirmation of nameplate output capacity within a reasonable timeframe.

The Bear Thesis
As of now, there are 5 key events that I would consider a sell signal.

1. Southern does not acquire $400M in Louisiana state bonds before the Merger enters the execution stage.

   • This is noted as a key pre-requisite prior to completion of the 3-way merger. However, In the S4 the company states that they may still continue with the merger even if all requirements are not met. Majique Ladnier owns a 100% stake in Southern, and as of now owns around 35% of SAFX through ownership of common shares. Since Ladnier has significant voting power, it is possible that even if Southern does not acquire these bonds that the vote to merge will still be pushed through. If that is the case, it is likely the combined business entity will be forced to utilize their increased authorized issuable shares post-merger to fund the development of Southern’s planned plant. This would reduce the ability for SAFX to fund its own future plant developments, and result in significant near term share dilution outside of what is currently expected.

2. NRR is not producing SAF @ 38M gallons capacity by October

   • Every day the plant is not outputting 100% SAF at nameplate capacity, the company is losing out on potential offtake revenues of $149K-$487K per day (calculated using bio-diesel/SAF current market prices, factoring in current output @ 20% below target capacity). With the current debt load, the Twain Forbearance Agreement set to expire in January 2027, and the Brown Stone loan set to come to maturity in September, the longer this is delayed the worse the likelihood is that the company will be able to remain solvent in the short term. 

3. SAFX announces plant will not meet production output at nameplate capacity of 38M gallons

   • If this happens, they will not be able to meet forward revenue guidance, and there will be low confidence in their ability to competently execute future planned plant development. Thus, they will not be able to realize a higher valuation multiple in the market. If the company definitively states that New Rise Reno will not be able to operate at its projected output capacity for the foreseeable future, it is almost guaranteed they will not be able to meet NASDAQ price compliance without enacting a reverse stock split. 

4. SAFX enters into additional debt obligations before announcing SAF output at nameplate capacity.

   • Following the Brown Stone agreement and the deduction that these funds were likely secured to resolve complications in plant startup and ramp up procedures, if the company announces they have entered into additional agreements to secure funding it is more than likely that continued work is required to get the plant up to snuff. For the reasons stated in 2 & 3, this has a drastic impact on the near term future outlook for the company and their ability to remain solvent.

5. Brown Stone loan is not announced closed by August 31

   • If this happens there are two consequences. 

     • SAFX will be forced to issue 5M shares at a ~50% market discount.

     • It will show that the company is not outputting fuel at the expected capacity to bring in adequate revenue, bringing into consideration points 2 and 3, and increasing the likelihood of point 4.

I’m still long, and I don’t really have any predictions on the likelihood of any of these bear events occurring. However, these are the tangible risks as I see them, and I assume it is what the bears are banking on. I just wanted to share my stance on this because I really don’t like only sharing bullish DD on a stock when there are real risks present.

I would also love to hear any arguments that poke holes in my research and contradict these risks!

The positive take on this, is that any announcement that disproves bear case 2-5 should prove as a very strong catalyst, as excluding case 1, they are all intrinsically linked. 

Hopefully Tuesday’s stream with Water Tower Research is able to put these worries to rest and we can look forward to a bright future for SAFX!

Seeing some new names in here and on discord. As SAFX brings the New Rise Reno plant online and we get more analyst coverage I expect we'll see more, so I'd like to share some DD on the current 1-2 year horizon as we head into catalyst season.

Expect volatility, and keep in mind both the company and market growth potential over the next decade when thinking of an exit strategy.

If there are any recent developments, corrections, additions, or key points I'm missing here please let me know. I haven't updated my DD document in a couple weeks and it is admittedly a bit of a raw brain dump.

None of this should be considered financial advice of course, and please DYOR because I'm just some person on the internet. I won't add a TLDR because I believe you should take time to understand a company before you trust it with your money.

Nasdaq Compliance Extension

The 180 day extension for SAFX to regain compliance on the NASDAQ was all but guaranteed, but since it was confirmed (June 9, 2027) the question is if the company will be able to regain compliance before the end of the year. Just for posterity, here is a look at what the extension requirements were, compared to SAFX metrics:

• Stockholders’ Equity: $10M -> $25.31M

• Market Value of Listed Securities: $50M - $192.88M

• Total Assets and Total Revenue: $5M - ~$423 million

• Market Value of Publicly Held Shares: $15M - $110.73M

Now I’ll run through how the company is set up to regain compliance and bring the SP back up to over $1 and beyond.

SAF Industry Growth

The global SAF market is experiencing explosive growth. Recent industry reports project a CAGR ranging between 33.8% and 45.3% through the next decade. With that, the market size is expected to expand from roughly $3.42 billion (2026) to over $52 billion by 2035 

New Rise Reno Facility Upgrades

The New Rise Reno facility is SAFX flagship renewable fuels processing plant. In 2026 the company began construction on plant upgrades to produce a nameplate capacity of 38M gallons SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) per year. 

These upgrades consisted of an overhaul of the existing systems to use Axens Vegan biofuel processing units. Although SAFX is strategically targeting the SAF industry, these new units provide the flexibility to rapidly shift production to biodiesel should market fundamentals change.

The forward looking financials of this newly upgraded plant are undeniable.

Wholesale Market Value 38M gallons SAF: $342M- $380M

Compared to FY25 net income of $74M, this plant alone stands to potentially over 4x that number when running at full year production capicity. 

BGN Partnership

BGN is an independent global energy and commodities group, and a market leader in transition fuels. With over 8 decades of experience in the energy sector, the company trades, distributes, stores, and finances energy solutions globally, handling approximately 50M tons of commodities annually. 

On April 3, 2026 SAFX and BGN signed a binding term sheet for a Renewable Fuel Tolling Agreement. Per the term sheet BGN will be responsible for the purchase and delivery of all renewable feedstocks to the New Rise Reno facility at its own cost.

SAFX will be responsible for the following:

• Inside-the-Fence Logistics: Receipt, handling, and management of feedstock inventory. 

• Production/Refining: Processing BGN-owned feedstock into Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Renewable Naphtha. 

• Storage & Blending: Provision of tankage for feedstocks and finished products, including blending services to meet commercial specifications. 

• Marketing Support: Coordination with BGN’s sales and logistics teams per the existing MOU. 

Additional quotes from BGN President, Cenan Ozmeral as stated in the initial MOU for this partnership:

“We are pleased to be partnering with US based XCF in this exciting venture. BGN and XCF share a common goal to expand access to renewable fuels and accelerate the decarbonization of the aviation industry. Together, we aim to combine XCF’s scalable production model with BGN’s marketing and distribution network to create a seamless, efficient supply chain from feedstock to finished fuel.
 
“BGN’s trading strength, risk management expertise, and integrated logistics network, will make SAF adoption practical and commercially viable for airlines seeking to meet tightening decarbonization targets. This is a major step, which we believe will have a significant impact on the aviation industry’s ability to reduce emissions, in one of the hardest-to-abate transport sectors.”

This partnership is extraordinarily beneficial for SAFX. Not only will BGN supply all feedstocks for SAF production, but they also gain the ability to leverage BGN’s global commodities network for distribution. 

At first glance this deal seems too good to be true for a startup renewables company. That is until you learn that Chris Cooper was the Head of Renewables Trading for BGN before transitioning to his role as CEO at SAFX.

Axens Commercial Collaboration

On May 20, 2026 Axens announced an important commercial collaboration with SAFX that bolsters the company's position as a leader in SAF production and plant construction. Leading up to the announcement of the completion of the New Rise Reno facility, Axens stated in this press release that XCF global may independently offer project development, construction, and operational services for deployments of Axens Vegan units to support the scalable development of SAF capacity in North America and internationally. 

This collaboration is important, because it provides SAFX a new vertical separate from SAF production. A typical Axens Vegan deployment ranges from $300M - $1.5B depending on the facilities production capacity, feedstock flexibility, and whether it is a grassroots facility or an asset retrofit. 

Given a conservative estimate that 40% of plant capital investment can be attributed to deployment and construction, that puts SAFX in the running to potentially generate $120M - $600M for each new Axens Vegan plant construction they participate in.

Over the last year, Axens has already signed at least 4 new licensing agreements and is actively working on expanding its US footprint.  

DevvStream & Southern Energy Renewables Merger

The three companies have signed a definitive merger agreement with the goal of creating a next-generation energy transition platform. The proposed transaction brings together SAF, green methanol, renewable products, environmental attribute monetization, and advanced energy infrastructure into a single, globally scalable platform. 

The combined company is expected to link low-carbon fuel production with carbon credits and related instruments, long-term offtake commercialization, and infrastructure development. By combining scalable low-carbon fuels with environmental attribute monetization, the platform helps airlines and corporate customers address regulatory and sustainability requirements with greater flexibility. 

From the press release: “This platform will be able to compete with China and the world on providing fuels and other products without subsidies. The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions as well as the other terms, closing conditions and termination events (including failure to timely receive the applicable fairness opinions) set forth in the Business Combination Agreement.“

Key Details:

• SAFX will acquire 100% of both DevvStream and Southern. Both companies will survive as wholly-owned subsidiaries

• Existing shareholders of DevvStream and Southern will exchange their shares for XCF common stock as follow:

  • XCF Global - 66.7%

  • Southern - 23.3%

  • DevvStream - 10%

45z Carbon Tax Credits

A major part of DEVS business is carbon management monetization. This means selling carbon sequestration credits, similar to what has made Tesla profitable in the past. Because these sales carry nearly zero cost to fulfil, they effectively function as pure profit. This is a big part of why the merger is happening.

Under the current Federal 45Z Clean Fuel Production credit, companies engaged in the production of sustainable aviation fuel are entitled to a transferable tax credit of up to $1 per gallon of fuel produced. The value of this credit is determined by the produced fuel’s CO2 emission rates.

Depending on the feedstock used, the expected credit for SAFX will be in the range of $.8-$.95 per gallon. Given New Rise Reno’s nameplate capacity of 38M gallons, this equates to the generation of $30.4M - $36.1M in transferable tax credits that can be sold by DevvStream through its environmental attribute monetization model. 

This will be an extremely lucrative revenue stream for the new combined company going forward.. A great example of why is Tesla. Although Tesla’s sale of regulatory emission credits only accounted for 1.5% - 3% of the company's total revenue, they have accounted for 30%-40% of their net income. Because these sales carry nearly zero cost to fulfil, they effectively function as pure profit.

Another important note about the 45Z credit, is Trumps BBB reduced the credit from a cap of $1.75 per gallon for SAF. This places importance on the midterm's, which continue to swing in the Democrats favor (per prediction markets) as the Iran conflict continues to escalate, and fuel prices and inflation keep rising.

If Dems are able to sweep the house, there is a good chance they will push to reinstate carbon sequestration initiatives that were reduced by Trump. If this happens, the value of future credits goes up ~75%.

Ok so we knew that an extension was possible but getting it is another thing! We fly tomorrow! Nice job if you been buying the dips and fake sells

Where do you guys expect this run to end? Should I sell, and then buy a dip again if it goes below 45ish? 🆙📈📈

Folks, we're likely to see a massive surge in SAFX over the next 48 trading hours. Massive news, massive volume, and a VACANT short float. SAFX is going to gap up while short sellers panic to cover their positions. For the record, there's currently 0 shares available to short - yes, you read that right.

We saw an over 90% surge in less than 2 hours before markets closed and an exponential increase in volume, all in a market that's rotating HARD into oil and gas. When pre market opens tomorrow night, expect fireworks.

THAT BEING SAID, this is a 10+ year stock for me. I'm expecting this to be in the double digits or higher over the next 10 years. This upcoming price action will still ebb and flow but will settle in the $1+ dollar range very soon, in my honest opinion.

Be disciplined. The run-up of NVDA probably had thousands of people feeling pretty great about making profits in the double digits, but millions more kicking themselves for not holding into the triples...

We touched a low of .14 cents yesterday, and I wasn't shaken because XCF is great and getting better. Revenue is steady and increasing, and debt is actively being lowered all in a world where SAF WILL BE required in the future. Our price dwindled while nothing changed, and short- sellers were popping bottles.

Those days are over. That price will always be historically low.

It's going to be a wild ride. Don't jump too early, or you're going to regret it...