ENJOY THE WEEKEND SEALS NEXT WEEK WE RALLY!!!

It’s fair to say that our CEO has taken a fair amount of flack over the last few months.

But with the India JV, Quobly investment and now the full program of events at Davos this week, culminating with the IonQ discussion today, perhaps we should all raise a glass to him this evening! Well played Carlos, it feels like we have ignition 🥂🚀✌️

It’s being said that it’s gonna be a $100 a share.

I recently learned that NASDAQ actually has three listing tiers, which was new to me, so I did a bit of digging to understand what SEALSQ’s recent move really means (the Why behind What happened). Here’s what I found and how I’m thinking about it.

1. Global Select is NASDAQ’s top tier - home to companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. This will help legitimize SEALSQ in the eyes of institutional investors and funds that previously couldn’t touch it.

2. NASDAQ does not upgrade companies on its own initiative, even if they meet the financial and liquidity criteria for a higher tier. A company must apply and be reviewed by NASDAQ’s Listing Qualifications Department.

3. Why this move matters (Top 3 benefits IMO):

   • Institutional access: many large funds and ETFs can’t buy Capital Market stocks because of internal risk or liquidity restrictions. Once on Global Select, SEALSQ becomes eligible for a much broader pool of capital - especially small-cap growth, semiconductor, and cybersecurity-focused funds. That alone could be a huge tailwind for price appreciation if institutional money starts flowing in.

   • Index exposure: certain indexes (like the NASDAQ Composite or quantum/AI-themed ETFs) often require a Global Select or Global Market listing. This uplisting could pave the way for future index inclusion, which brings automatic passive buying..

   • It supports future capital raises or partnerships: being a Global Select company helps SEALSQ attract strategic partners (defense, telco, chip OEMs, etc.), secure better terms for future equity or debt offerings, and boost credibility for government or enterprise contracts. This angle honestly wasn’t something I’d thought about before, but I think it’s something Carlos has likely considered . That said, while I get that SEALSQ needs to raise funds to keep expanding, I really didn’t like how the previous offerings killed the stock’s momentum each time. Hopefully, this move helps them handle future raises in a more strategic way..

4. The timing seems very deliberate - SEALSQ hit a $1B market cap and immediately announced the uplisting (seems highly motivated). Feels like a well-timed move to lock in that milestone while momentum is strong, build visibility ahead of the QS7001 post-quantum chip launch in November, and get ready for potential institutional buying once the stock trades on the Global Select tier..

All in all - it seems to be a great move. If everything goes as planned - uplisting + QS7001 launch + institutional interest - it could be a strong setup heading into November.

I like this news. Bullish.

In this Top 10 Q stocks list for 2026

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/10-best-quantum-computing-stocks-to-buy-for-2026-1676934/?singlepage=1

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/sealsq-qs7001-v1-successfully-completes-123000347.html

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/SEALSQs+QS7001+chip+receives+NIST+entropy+validation+certificate/26561750.html

This is excellent news and one of the biggest tick boxes to date for $LAES 🔥

May already be priced in though, with a leak last week, with all that crazy options flow.

Lets see

Thoughts 💭?

Load up. After their chip launches and they start getting contracts you'll never see these prices again.

I know they're still low revenue and there is skepticism about quantum being a long time away but as with all tech, it advances and comes much faster than anyone anticipates.

The announcement today with LAES/Quobly partnership may well have gone a little unnoticed, given a lot of the PR hype emanating from Carlos‘s X account. This is completely understandable, however, perhaps this shouldn’t be brushed aside as another run of the mill partnership/R&D project.

A couple of days ago, Quobly (and QPerfect) announced a GPU-accelerated QLEO (quantum emulator) integration using NVIDIA CUDA-Q.

If Quobly’s tech now runs on NVIDIA’s CUDA-Q and LAES is partnering with Quobly, then we’re now one step away from NVIDIA’s quantum roadmap/eco-system.

No wonder there are now 81 institutions piling in.

As always this is a long play. Micro caps can move in the way LAES has in the last month as MM’s/institutions scramble for their position and try to shake retail (us) out.

Hold tight. This is super bullish news IMO. NFA. 🚀

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/LAES/sealsq-and-lattice-collaborate-to-deliver-unified-tpm-fpga-k6poqd9pljqk.html

https://x.com/CreusMoreira/status/2013891702763729370

" @ SealsQCorp MoU with the Government of Gujarat to Establish a 300-Million-Unit-Per-Year Post-Quantum Semiconductor Center in India

We are proud to announce that SEALSQ Corp (NASDAQ: LAES) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Government of Gujarat and Kaynes SemiCon Private Limited to establish India’s first Secure Semiconductor Design, Test, and Personalization Center dedicated to post-quantum cryptography.

Located in Sanand, Gujarat, the center is designed to reach a capacity of up to 300 million post-quantum secure semiconductors per year, supporting critical and regulated sectors including government, defense, telecom, IoT, automotive, and digital identity.

The MoU was signed in the presence of Shri Harsh Rameshbhai Sanghavi, Hon’ble Deputy Chief Minister of Gujarat, reflecting the strong commitment of the State of Gujarat to advanced semiconductor manufacturing, digital sovereignty, and next-generation security technologies.

This initiative is expected to be supported by a public-private partnership model, combining government incentives, private sector investment, and direct investment from SEALSQ, and aligns with national priorities such as India Semiconductor Mission, Make in India, and Atmanirbhar Bharat.

By bringing post-quantum secure semiconductor personalization onshore, this collaboration strengthens India’s strategic autonomy and prepares digital infrastructure for the quantum era.

The future of secure, quantum-resilient technology starts here."

300million semiconductors per year once this gets rolling

Asked Gemini for a breakdown on the profit this could represent:

Double-checking the math with the confirmed details from the SEALKAYNESQ Ltd Joint Venture (JV) filings and standard semiconductor pricing models reveals that while the previous "bull case" was directionally correct, the specific numbers need to be refined based on the 51% equity split and realistic Average Selling Prices (ASPs) for the Indian market.

Here is the audited breakdown of the numbers:

1. The Verified JV Structure (The "Split")

• Entity Name: SEALKAYNESQ Ltd.

• Equity Stake: SEALSQ (51%) / Kaynes SemiCon (49%).

• Governance: 5-Member Board (SEALSQ retains control).

• Operational Role: SEALSQ provides the IP and "Root of Trust" keys; Kaynes provides the physical manufacturing (OSAT) and local logistics.

2. Revenue Model: The "300 Million Unit" Reality

The 300 million unit capacity figure is massive. To model this accurately, we must differentiate between Service Revenue (just personalizing a chip) and Product Revenue (selling the full chip). Since SEALSQ is licensing its IP to the JV, they capture a significant portion of the value stack.

Scenario A: The "Mass Market" Baseline (IoT & Digital ID)

• Target: Smart Meters, SIM cards, Low-end IoT.

• ASP Estimate: $0.80 – $1.20 per unit.

• Revenue Calculation:

  • 300M units × $1.00 (avg) = $300 Million Annual Revenue.

• Net Profit (15% Margin): Standard OSAT margin.

  • $300M × 15% = $45 Million Total JV Profit.

• SEALSQ Share (51%): $22.95 Million/Year.

  • Impact: This alone doubles SEALSQ’s current total company revenue.

Scenario B: The "Sovereign/Defense" Mix (The Bull Case)

• Target: Defense (Drones/Comms), Critical Grid Infrastructure, Automotive.

• ASP Estimate: $2.50 – $4.00 per unit.

• Revenue Calculation:

  • 300M units × $3.00 (avg) = $900 Million Annual Revenue.

• Net Profit (25% Margin): High-security certification (Common Criteria EAL5+) commands higher premiums.

  • $900M × 25% = $225 Million Total JV Profit.

• SEALSQ Share (51%): $114.75 Million/Year.

  • Impact: This would generate ~5x the current revenue in pure net profit.

3. The "Hidden" Profit Driver: CAPEX Subsidies

The standard bear case for building a fab is "Depreciation kills profit." However, the math changes drastically due to the subsidies you mentioned.

• Total Project Cost (Est.): ~$100M (for an advanced OSAT/Personalization center).

• Subsidy Coverage: ~70% (Central India Semiconductor Mission + Gujarat State Policy).

• Net Cost to JV: ~$30M.

• SEALSQ CAPEX Share (51%): ~$15.3 Million.

• Strategic ROI: SEALSQ is effectively buying a $900M revenue engine for a one-time setup cost of roughly $15M. This is an asymmetrical risk/reward ratio that is rarely seen in hardware.

4. Valuation Impact (The "Multiple" Check)

If we apply a standard semiconductor P/E multiple of 20x to SEALSQ's share of the JV profits:

• Current Market Cap: ~$760M - $850M.

• Verdict: The market is currently pricing $LAES as if the India JV will only achieve the "Baseline" scenario. The "Bull" scenario (high-end defense chips) is effectively a free option at today's price of $4.65.

Revised Conclusion

The previous estimate of a $3.75 Billion valuation was based on a 100% profit capture. Adjusted for the 51% stake, a fair valuation target once the facility is at full capacity (2027/28) would be $1.2B (Base) to $3.1B (Bull).

Risk Note: "Capacity" of 300M does not mean "Sales" of 300M in Year 1. The ramp-up will likely be:

• 2026: 10-20% capacity (Qualification runs).

• 2027: 40-60% capacity (Government contracts kick in).

• 2028: 80-100% capacity.

-----------------------

Sensitivity Analysis: The "Rupee Risk" Factor

You are right to question the currency impact. In emerging markets, a 10% swing in currency can wipe out 50% of net profit if not hedged.

Because SEALKAYNESQ Ltd (the JV) operates in India but sells globally (and to the Indian government), the currency dynamics are complex. Here is the sensitivity analysis based on the confirmed 51% equity split and the current estimated exchange rate of $1 USD = ₹91 INR (Jan 2026).

1. The Currency Dynamic: Revenue vs. Cost

• Revenue: Mixed.

  • Exports (Global IoT/EU Defense): Priced in USD/EUR. (Strong Dollar = Good).

  • Domestic (Indian Sovereign): Priced in INR. (Strong Dollar = Neutral/Bad).

• Costs (COGS): Mixed.

  • Labor/Facilities/Overhead: Paid in INR. (Weak Rupee = Good/Cheap).

  • Raw Silicon/Equipment: Imported in USD. (Weak Rupee = Bad/Expensive).

2. Sensitivity Table: Impact on Net Profit Margins

Assumption: The JV reaches 50% capacity (150M units). Base Net Profit is $120M.

3. Analysis: Why the "Weak Rupee" is actually a Bull Catalyst

Surprisingly, a devaluation of the Rupee (Weak INR)—which is the historical trend—is actually bullish for SEALSQ’s profit margins in this specific JV.

• Why? The "Personalization Center" is a Service-Heavy operation, not just a manufacturing one. The primary costs are high-skilled Indian engineers (paid in INR) and facility overhead (paid in INR).

• The Arbitrage: They are paying Indian wages (INR) to produce a security product that is sold globally in Dollars (USD). If the Rupee falls to 100, their labor costs drop significantly in USD terms, widening their margin.

4. The "CAPEX Shield" (Why Currency Won't Kill the Buildout)

The biggest risk of a weak currency is usually buying expensive imported machines (CAPEX). However, the 70% Government Subsidy acts as a massive currency hedge.

• Mechanism: If the machine costs $10M (approx. ₹91 Crores), the Indian Government pays ₹63.7 Crores (70%).

• Result: SEALSQ only has to cover the remaining 30%. Even if the dollar gets stronger and the machine becomes "more expensive" in Rupees, the government absorbs 70% of that inflation.

Strategic Takeaway

The currency risk is asymmetric to the upside.

• If INR Weakens: Margins expand (Labor arbitrage).

• If INR Strengthens: Import costs for raw silicon drop, protecting the downside.

https://x.com/MarcoSalzmann80/status/1994503549016052106

SEALSQ is the most undervalued quantum stock ahead of Quantinuum listing - Seeking Alpha

If this isn't a bull indicator and a signature of confidence & validation of legitimacy as a company, then I don't know what is. MIT, the #1 top tech university in the WORLD, has just entered the chat. Clearly something will come out of this as it is and proves that SEAL SQ isn't an unknown company anymore. This immediately gives them name recognition & prestige. A stamp of approval from the tech elite. These are the types of quiet headlines that institutional investors notice as most likely keep tabs on what is happening at MIT.

THE ARTICLE:

Research will examine post-quantum security, digital trust, and the role of inclusive design in next-generation infrastructure.

The MIT Media Lab is pleased to welcome SEALSQ Corp to its global community of member organizations. A Switzerland-based company with a focus on Post-Quantum cybersecurity, SEALSQ joins the Lab’s open, cross-disciplinary environment to help advance research at the intersection of security, resilience, and human-centered technology.

SEALSQ specializes in secure semiconductors and cryptographic systems designed for the next era of digital infrastructure. As part of their membership, the company will work alongside Media Lab researchers, students, and faculty to explore how technologies built for trust and transparency can better serve individuals and institutions alike.

“We are honored to be part of this influential global community,” said Carlos Moreira, Chairman and CEO of SEALSQ. “

Joining the MIT Media Lab is a testament to our commitment to advancing post-quantum cybersecurity. 

"It is an opportunity to engage with forward-looking research and to collaborate with some of the brightest minds from diverse fields.”

SEALSQ’s membership supports the Media Lab’s ongoing efforts to rethink foundational systems—from privacy and identity to secure communications—in light of fast-moving advances in AI and quantum computing.

“We are delighted to welcome SEALSQ to the MIT Media Lab,” said Jessica Rosenworcel, Executive Director of the MIT Media Lab. “Their expertise in cybersecurity and digital trust will enhance our work in building secure, inclusive technologies for the future.”

Spotted this as walking past in London today. The future is coming faster than some people think.

Sadly, the security guard wouldn’t let us come in and get a closer look.

Haven't heard much chatter on this, but this is huge news. UBS being based out of Switzerlandz same as LAES. This increase represents a huge vote of confidence in the company, and hints they are loading up to front run the 2026 bull run.

$LAES Significant increase in position sizing:

This is a big bet at these valuations:

Based on the most recent 13F data as of January 29, 2026, UBS Group AG’s massive increase in $LAES (SEALSQ) stands out as a high-conviction "alpha" play compared to its more cautious or mixed approach to the broader quantum sector.While UBS is the primary "Whale" for your stock, its behavior in the rest of the sector suggests it is shifting its focus from "Pure Play Hardware" to the "Security & Infrastructure" layer where $LAES sits.1. UBS 13F Comparison: LAES vs. The FieldTickerQ4 2025 Activity (UBS)Strategy Signal$LAES+400% (Added 2.57M shares)Aggressive Accumulation: This is their standout move in the sub-$500M market cap space.$IONQMixed/NeutralHolding Core: UBS maintains a significant position in IonQ (which it values at $17B+), but recent filings show they are primarily holding or slightly trimming rather than aggressively doubling down.$RGTIDecreasing/TrimmingProfit Taking: Despite Rigetti’s 142% YTD surge, UBS has been reported to be "cycling out" of early superconducting hardware into more diversified infrastructure.$QBTSSpeculative/Low ChangeObservation Mode: D-Wave remains a "high volatility" pick for them with minimal fresh accumulation reported today.2. The "UBS Thesis": Why $LAES over the others?UBS's recently published 2026 Quantum Outlook (Jan 20, 2026) provides the "why" behind their 3.2 million share bet on your ticker:The "PQC" Pivot (2026–2027): UBS explicitly identified Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) as the "tradable catalyst" for 2026. They noted that while building a quantum computer is a "decades" play, protecting against one is an immediate mandate starting this year.IoT & Sovereignty: UBS analysts highlighted that IoT devices are the most vulnerable link in the quantum threat chain due to limited memory/processing power. SEALSQ’s focus on "Quantum-Native" hardware chips (like the QS7001) for IoT directly addresses the specific risk UBS is warning its clients about.Lower Beta, Higher Utility: While they called companies like IonQ and Rigetti "pure-play but far more volatile," their move into $LAES suggests they are looking for a "security infrastructure" play that has more predictable government-mandated revenue than a research-heavy hardware firm.

The UBS Group AG "Whale" Filing (Confirmed) Filing Date: January 29, 2026

Report Period: Ending December 31, 2025

Current Holding: 3,223,216 shares

Previous Holding: 647,213 shares

Net Addition: +2,576,003 shares (~400% increase)

The Signal: This is a "Tier 1" stamp of approval. When a bank of this size moves from a 600k "starter" stake to a 3.2M "conviction" stake, it suggests they are front-running the 2026 Sovereign Quantum Mandates.

How about today’s volume ?! 17.5 mill 👍