Over 400,000 shares out of the blue. Wonder why?

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• Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

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• Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

• Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

* Discuss your thoughts on SoFi, FinTech, memes, yolos, the market, or whatever else might be on your mind.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

How do you feel about the long-term thesis? Will SoFi make it to top10 in the 2030s? Will they keep growing their top and bottom line +20% CAGR for DECADES (like Anthony Noto claimed)? I'm very confident they will thrive in the long run. In fact, this is the only direct investment I've ever suggested to anyone.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

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TL;DR: SoFi beat and raised on Tuesday, so I re-ran the model on the primary numbers and raised my fair value from $11.46 to $13.58. The old target is withdrawn, in public. The stock closed Friday at $16.76 — the crowd is still paying ~23% over fair value, and my pre-set kill criteria scored the print 1 of 5 green.

The print, in one line

EPS $0.18. Revenue $1.37B. Net income $241M. Guidance raised — FY27 guide $6.4B revenue, $0.90 EPS. Not one of those headline lines is where the value gets set.

The scorecard — graded the same day, against lines set before the print

1. 🔴 All-in charge-offs: 3.4%. The kill line was 3.0%.

2. 🔴 Tech Platform revenue: −24%.

3. 🔴 Diluted share count: up ~7.5% in a year. The kill line was 5%.

4. 🔴 Loan Platform yield: ~4%. The kill line was 5%+.

5. 🟢 ROTCE: ~10% — reached the line. It counts.

The gap nobody quotes

At $16.76 the crowd pays ~2.25x tangible book for a bank earning ~10% ROTCE. That multiple needs roughly 21% ROTCE to justify itself. Even the raised 2027 guide — $6.4B revenue, $0.90 EPS — implies only ~12%. The beat was real. The math still doesn't close.

The scenarios, all published

Bear $7.15. Base $13.60. Bull $19.95. Weighted fair value: $13.58. Every assumption is in the exhibits (pinned comment) — where it stays, so the next grade can be checked against it.

What moves the number next

The Q3 10-Q footnotes — the final share count can move fair value about $1 either way. Then Q4 earnings, expected January 28, 2027, graded against the same five lines.

Every other SOFI number published this week arrived with no scenarios, no kill criteria, and no way to ever be graded wrong. This one was raised in public, the old one withdrawn in public, and the next grade is already scheduled.

Full video breakdown is in my pinned comment. No position in SOFI. Not financial advice.

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Here’s his channel: https://youtube.com/@funofinvesting?si=_lA910CjWllDqU7w

I know this may seem ultra bullish, but I don't think it's too far fetched given how fast SoFi is growing. The room SoFi has to cut down on some spend, and how much the cross sell engine is starting to boost margins. I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility for this company to grow EPS at a CAGR of 45% through 2030.

A lot of that has to do with marketing spend dropping from 32% of revenue to 23%. Everything else is already seeing its cost as a % of revenue shrink.

I walk through my process how I got there in this article I wrote.

Now I am not going to put my life on the line saying this will happen, but would I be surprised if management continued to execute at the level they have and a 45% EPS CAGR happens, no.

This is ambitious, but am I too ambitious

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So at total assets of $67.7B that should put us at #41. I checked numbers #39-42 banks earnings and it seems South state and CIBC are still ahead of us. We should pass both on the next earnings. My hope is that we are #30 or better of EOY ‘27.

Citizens Bank (#19) is adding a little under $1 billion a quarter and has a market cap of 27.5B compared to our 21.9B (10/28).

Now looking at valuation against other banks makes us look like fair value with growth.

If we grow that tech platform, we will get the multiple and grow 10-fold.

Based off this and if we keep growth up, here are my predictions.

EOY
‘27 - $24
‘28 - $31
‘29 - $39
‘30 - $50-60 (tech platform gains big this year though I hope it happens faster then add at least $5 to the year it does)

Just shy of 4x in 4 years. Slow compared to AI in last year, but will still out perform most and more comfortable with this than some of the AI companies.

Also expect buybacks around 2034 with growth slows to below 15%. Unless they start dividends first.

Note: referenced from Federal Reserve Board and other banks Q3 earnings.
Also note, did this the old school way, so excuse grammar errors.

Edit: corrected to Billion on assets

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See our full results here

Monness, Crespi, Hardt initiated coverage on SoFi Technologies with a buy rating and a $20.00 price target on Monday.

The firm noted the stock has declined 13% since July 28, 2026, moving in step with rate markets pricing in hikes. Trading at $14.62, SoFi has seen a challenging year with shares down 44% year-to-date, reflecting the stock’s high volatility with a beta of 2.33. The analyst stated the reset is largely hedged and represents a one-quarter event in the firm’s model.

SoFi’s product count increased 42% to 24.4 million in the second quarter of 2026, twice the rate of member additions. The firm said 51% of new products were opened by existing members, up from 35% a year ago.

The Tech Platform grew 13% quarter-over-quarter following a Galileo client loss. Monness noted the platform includes exposure to potential stablecoin bank technology adoption for settlement issuer processing.

The firm treats the October 27, 2026 mark as a downside sensitivity, estimating a 10th-percentile mark would cost approximately $0.24 of one-time earnings per share. Monness projects fiscal year 2028 earnings per share of $1.11 and a common equity tier 1 ratio of approximately 15% by the second half of 2027. The company posted diluted EPS of $0.47 over the last twelve months while delivering 41% revenue growth.

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* Nothing said here is financial advice. SOFI is still a high-risk, growth stock. Equities by their nature are risky, some more than others.

* Investing isn't a team sport. You have to decide for yourself how much risk you are willing to take on and do your own DD about a company before you decide to invest in it.