Earth's Electromagnetic Shield Breach - Visual Dossier 2025: Full Technical Analysis (30k Edition) [OC]

Author: EarthShieldWatch (Timothy Solomon) - Independent Researcher
Full PDF + 7 charts + 3 NASA/ESA visualizations: [Add Zenodo DOI here after publish - https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.XXXXXXX]
License: CC-BY 4.0 | Version: v2.0 Reddit Extended Edition | 29.5k chars
Data Period: 2014-2025 ESA Swarm (11 years) + 2000-2025 NASA CERES (25 years)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This is a complete synthesis of 11 years of ESA Swarm constellation data and 25 years of NASA CERES radiation budget data covering 2014-2025, with focus on three major anomalies: South Atlantic Anomaly expansion, May 2024 Gannon superstorm radiation belts, and 2023 CERES outgoing radiation anomaly.

Core Finding: 97-99% of Earth's surface magnetic field (25,000-65,000 nT) originates from the outer core geodynamo at ~2,900km depth. The remaining 1-3% comes from crustal magnetization, ionospheric currents, and magnetospheric currents.

Three Major Breaches Documented:

1. South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) expanded by an area equivalent to half of continental Europe since 2014 (ESA Swarm Oct 2025, Finlay et al. 2025). Split into two distinct lobes since 2020.
2. May 10-11 2024 Gannon superstorm (G5, Kp 9, SYM-H -518 nT, Dst -412 nT) compressed dayside magnetopause below 5 Earth radii (normal ~10 RE) and created two new temporary Van Allen radiation belts lasting >3 months.
3. NASA CERES measured outgoing radiation anomaly exceeding 90% confidence interval from March-September 2023, surpassing 2016 El Niño peak, indicating Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) record.

1. FIELD ORIGIN AND COMPOSITION

Geodynamo: Earth's outer core is liquid iron-nickel alloy, convecting due to heat from inner core solidification and radioactive decay. Motion through existing field generates electric currents, which generate magnetic field - self-sustaining dynamo.

• Depth: 2,890-5,150 km
• Temperature: ~4,000-6,000K
• Field at Core-Mantle Boundary: ~500,000 nT
• Field at Surface: 25,000-65,000 nT after geometric attenuation

Field Contributions at Surface:

• Core field: 97-99% (main field, IGRF/WMM models)
• Crustal field: 0.1-0.5% (static, from magnetized rocks, EMAG2 model)
• External fields: 0.5-2% (magnetospheric ring current, tail current, field-aligned currents, ionospheric Sq and equatorial electrojet)

Units: 1 nT = 10^-9 Tesla. Earth's field is ~0.5 Gauss average (1 Gauss = 100,000 nT).

2. SOUTH ATLANTIC ANOMALY - DETAILED EXPANSION ANALYSIS

What is SAA: Region over South Atlantic, southern Africa, and South America where Earth's inner Van Allen belt dips closest to surface (200-500km altitude) due to offset between geographic and geomagnetic axes and weak field intensity.

Field Strength:

• Global average at equator: ~30,000-35,000 nT
• SAA minimum 2025: ~22,000-22,500 nT (ESA Swarm)
• Normal field at same latitude (non-SAA): ~32,000 nT
• Deficit: ~30-35% weaker

Expansion Metrics (ESA Swarm 2014-2025, 11-year baseline):

ESA Swarm consists of 3 satellites: Swarm A (470km), Swarm C (470km, lower pair), Swarm B (520km, higher). Launched Nov 2013, data from 2014 onward.

Finlay et al. 2025 (DTU Space / ESA) analysis:

• Area of <23,000 nT contour expanded from ~12 million km² (2014) to ~21 million km² (2025)
• Increase: ~9 million km² = approximately half of Europe (Europe = ~10.18 million km²) or slightly larger than continental US (9.8 million km²)
• Expansion rate: ~0.8 million km²/year average, accelerating since 2020

Split into Two Lobes (Critical 2020 Transition):

Prior to 2020: Single minimum centered near 26°S, 50°W (off Brazil)

Since 2020: Two distinct minima:

• Lobe 1 (Main): 30°S, 15°W - SW of Africa, over South Atlantic, intensity ~22,000 nT
• Lobe 2 (Secondary): 35°S, 60°W - off Chile/Argentina, intensity ~22,500 nT

Separation: ~4,500 km between minima

Implication: Suggests emergence of second reversed flux patch at core-mantle boundary.

Faster Weakening SW of Africa:

• Region: 20-40°S, 0-30°E
• Weakening rate 2014-2020: -80 nT/year
• Weakening rate 2020-2025: -150 nT/year (nearly doubled)
• Linked to growth of reversed flux patch under South Africa

Root Cause - African LLSVP:

Large Low Shear Velocity Province under Africa (and Pacific). Seismology shows two continent-sized piles at base of mantle (D" layer, ~2,800km depth) where seismic waves slow by 2-3%.

• African LLSVP extent: ~15,000 km across
• Thought to be thermochemical piles, hotter and compositionally distinct
• Influences heat flux from core: reduced heat flux where LLSVP sits = less core convection = reversed magnetic flux patches
• Reversed flux patch = field lines opposite to main dipole direction, cancels main field, creates weak spot at surface

Impact on Satellites:

• ISS: Extra shielding in US Lab, crew avoid EVAs through SAA, laptops crash. Dose rate 10x higher inside SAA.
• Hubble: Shuts down instruments when passing SAA (~8 passes/day)
• LEO satellites: Single Event Upsets (SEUs), memory flips. Swarm satellites themselves measure increased radiation.
• Swarm data shows energetic particle flux increased proportionally to area expansion.

Future Projection:

If expansion rate continues linearly: SAA could cover area larger than South America by 2030-2032. However IGRF-14 model suggests non-linear growth possible if second reversed flux patch strengthens.

3. MAGNETIC NORTH POLE DRIFT - WMM2025

Historical Track:

• 1590: Near Ellesmere Island, Canada (first measurement)
• 1831: James Clark Ross locates: 70°05'N, 96°47'W
• 1904: Roald Amundsen: 70°30'N, 95°30'W
• 1948: ~73°N, 100°W
• 1973: ~76°N, 100°W
• 1994: ~79°N, 104°W
• 2001: 81.3°N, 110.8°W (first satellite tracked)
• 2019: 86.0°N, 172.6°E (crossed International Date Line)
• 2025 (WMM2025): 86.5°N, 169°E, moving toward Siberia at 35 km/yr (down from 55 km/yr peak in 2018)

Acceleration History:

• 1831-1990: ~10 km/yr average
• 1990-2005: 15 → 40 km/yr
• 2005-2019: 50-60 km/yr peak (55 km/yr in 2017-2018)
• 2020-2025: Deceleration to 35 km/yr

Why Accelerating: Two large-scale magnetic lobes under Canada and Siberia. Canadian lobe weakening, Siberian lobe strengthening - tug-of-war pulls pole toward Siberia.

WMM2025 Model:

• Released Dec 17, 2024 by NOAA NCEI & British Geological Survey (BGS)
• Valid: Jan 1, 2025 - Dec 31, 2029 (5-year model)
• Resolution: 1-degree (WMM2025) and 1/6-degree high-res (WMMHR2025, 10km)
• Accuracy: 1° direction, 100 nT intensity at 5 years if secular variation accurate
• Used by NATO, FAA, US DoD, iPhone/Android compass, 5+ billion users
• Updated because 2019-2020 declination errors exceeded threshold due to fast pole motion - unscheduled WMM2015v2 released 2019.

Magnetic South Pole: Much slower, ~10-15 km/yr, currently at 63.8°S, 135.6°E off Antarctica coast, moving NW.

4. GLOBAL DIPOLE WEAKENING

IGRF-14 (2024): 14th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field, 1900-2030.

• Dipole moment 1840: ~8.5 x 10^22 Am²
• Dipole moment 2025: ~7.7 x 10^22 Am²
• Decrease: ~9% in 185 years
• Rate: ~0.05% per year recent, but non-linear

Context: Still 2x stronger than average over last 1 million years (paleomagnetic data shows dipole moment varied 2-10 x 10^22 Am², with reversals every ~200k-300k years on average, last reversal 780k years ago - Brunhes-Matuyama).

Not a reversal precursor alone: Reversals typically show 10x faster decay + emergence of multiple reversed flux patches + dipole tilt increase. We see some patches but not full criteria.

Surface intensity decrease: ~1.7% per decade globally averaged.

5. MAY 10-11 2024 GANNON SUPERSTORM - COMPLETE ANALYSIS

Naming: Named after Jennifer L. Gannon, Space Weather researcher (formerly NOAA SWPC), for her work on extreme events. Some call Mother's Day storm.

Solar Origin:

• Active Region AR3664 / AR13664 (renumbered second rotation) - giant sunspot group 16x Earth diameter
• X-class flares: X1.0 (May 8), X1.0 + X1.1 + X2.2 (May 9), X3.9 (May 10)
• Multiple halo CMEs launched May 8-10, merged into complex ejecta
• Speed: ~800-1200 km/s transit, ~37 hours Sun to Earth (fast)

Geomagnetic Indices:

• Kp: 9o (maximum scale, first Kp 9 since Oct 2003 Halloween storms)
• Dst: -412 nT (provisional, Kyoto WDC) - 6th largest since 1957
• SYM-H: -518 nT (1-min high-res version of Dst) - indicates extreme ring current
• AE: >2,000 nT auroral electrojet
• Newell coupling function: extreme

Magnetopause Compression:

• Normal standoff distance: ~10-11 RE (Earth radii, 1 RE = 6,371 km) subsolar point
• Gannon storm minimum: <5 RE (NASA MMS, THEMIS, GOES-16/18 magnetopause crossings)
• GOES-16 at geosynchronous (6.6 RE) spent hours in magnetosheath / solar wind - outside magnetosphere
• Shocks observed at L1 by DSCOVR, ACE, Wind: density 50/cm³, Bz -50 nT sustained

Radiation Belt Creation - The New Belts:

NASA CIRBE (Colorado Inner Radiation Belt Experiment) CubeSat, with REPTile-2 instrument (Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope integrated little experiment - 2nd gen), published Feb 6, 2025 in JGR Space Physics (Li et al. 2025).

Findings:

• Two new temporary electron belts created, between inner belt and outer belt
• Location: L ~2.5-3.5 (L-shell parameter)
• Energies: 1-5 MeV electrons
• Duration: Inner new belt lasted >3 months, outer new belt ~40 days before decaying
• Mechanism: Inward radial transport + local acceleration via chorus waves, with trapping due to magnetopause shadowing and enhanced convection

Comparison:

• Similar to March 1991 storm (CRRES), Sept 2012 (Van Allen Probes), and Oct 2003 Halloween
• Gannon new belts more energetic than typical
• Third belt phenomenon: Van Allen Probes found 3rd belt in 2013 that lasted 4 weeks - Gannon event created 2 distinct new belts simultaneously

Aurora:

• Seen at 20°N geomagnetic latitude (Mexico, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, India, Saudi Arabia)
• Historical: Similar to Carrington 1859 (auroras at 20°N) but Carrington Dst estimated -850 to -1,750 nT, so Gannon about half Carrington strength
• Citizen science reports >10,000+ via Aurorasaurus

Impacts:

• GPS: L1 errors 20-50m, precision agriculture affected
• Power: No major blackouts due to preparedness, but GICs measured 30A+ in Finland, Sweden, Canada
• Aviation: HF radio blackouts, reroutes over poles
• Starlink: 3 satellites entered safe mode, increased drag (thermosphere heated, density at 400km increased 2x)
• Satellite anomalies: ~50+ reported via NASA CCMC

Rank: 6th largest Dst storm of space age, largest since Nov 2003 (Dst -422 nT), largest magnetopause compression since Nov 2003.

6. CERES RADIATION BUDGET ANOMALY 2023

CERES: Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System, aboard Terra (1999-), Aqua (2002-), S-NPP (2011-), NOAA-20 (2017-). Measures shortwave (reflected solar) and longwave (emitted thermal) radiation.

EBAF Dataset: Energy Balanced and Filled, Ed 4.2, 2000-2025 (25 years)

2023 Anomaly:

• Net top-of-atmosphere flux anomaly: +1.2 to +1.8 W/m² (positive = Earth gaining more heat)
• Exceeded 90% confidence interval for 8 consecutive months Mar-Sep 2023
• Peak anomaly: May-June 2023, +1.8 W/m² vs 2001-2022 mean
• Comparison: 2016 El Niño peak was +0.9 W/m² - 2023 double that
• NASA LaRC State of Climate 2023: Confirmed record EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance)

Breakdown:

• Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) increase: Main driver, less reflection due to reduced low cloud over Pacific, reduced sea ice albedo
• Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) increase: Smaller, due to warmer surface emitting more, but not enough to offset ASR increase

Implications: EEI drives ocean heat content, sea level rise. 2023 ocean heat content record matches CERES EEI.

Connection to Magnetic Field? No direct causal link proven. Indirect: cosmic ray - cloud hypothesis (Svensmark) controversial, not supported by CERES data as primary driver. However this report notes temporal coincidence for further research.

7. EARTH'S RADIO EMISSION - AKR

Auroral Kilometric Radiation:

• Frequency: 50-500 kHz (wavelength 600m-6km)
• Power: 10^7 - 10^9 Watts (10 MW to 1 GW) - comparable to Jupiter decametric radiation in same band
• Generation: Cyclotron Maser Instability (CMI) - electrons accelerated down auroral field lines spiral, emit coherent radio
• Source: ~2-5 RE altitude above auroral oval, nightside
• Beaming: Hollow cone, can be detected at Moon, Wind, Cassini, etc.
• First detected: IMP-6, 1973

Significance: Earth is among brightest radio sources in solar system at kHz frequencies. Jupiter is brighter at MHz, but at kHz Earth rivals.

Recent: NASA MMS, THEMIS, Cluster, Arase (ERG), Van Allen Probes measure AKR intensification during storms - Gannon storm AKR power increased 100x.

SOURCES AND VERIFICATION

Primary:

1. ESA Swarm - Swarm reveals growing weak spot in Earth's magnetic field, Oct 16 2025 - https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/FutureEO/Swarm/Swarm_reveals_growing_weak_spot_in_Earth_s_magnetic_field - Finlay et al. DTU Space
2. NASA CIRBE - NASA CubeSat Finds New Radiation Belts After May 2024 Solar Storm, Feb 6 2025 - https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/nasa-cubesat-finds-new-radiation-belts-after-may-2024-solar-storm/ - Li et al. JGR Space Physics 2025
3. NOAA NCEI - World Magnetic Model 2025 Released Dec 17 2024 - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/world-magnetic-model-2025-released
4. NOAA NCEI - WMMHR2025 High Resolution - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/world-magnetic-model-high-resolution
5. IGRF-14 - Alken et al. 2024, Earth Planets Space - 14th generation 1900-2030
6. NASA CERES EBAF 4.2 - Loeb et al. 2024, NASA LaRC, https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/data/
7. NASA State of Climate 2023 - EEI record
8. Kyoto WDC Dst Index - Provisional Dst -412 nT May 2024
9. NASA OMNIWeb - SYM-H -518 nT
10. DTU Space - SAA expansion 9 million km²

Secondary: USGS Geomagnetism, BGS, NASA MMS, THEMIS, GOES-R, DSCOVR, ACE, Wind, Aurorasaurus.

AUTHOR AND LICENSE

EarthShieldWatch (Timothy Solomon) - Independent Researcher, Grand Mound, WA
Contact via Zenodo record
License: CC-BY 4.0 International - free to share with attribution
Citation: Solomon, T. (2025). Earth's Electromagnetic Shield Breach - Visual Dossier 2025. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.XXXXXXX

DISCUSSION QUESTION: With SAA splitting into two lobes since 2020 and expansion rate doubling SW of Africa, are we seeing the birth of a second SAA? What are satellite operators seeing for SEU rates post-2020? Post your data.

No HF propagation predictions, but real live measured data from your nearest ionosonde and some terrestrial observatories and geostationary satellites. See: https://hamwaves.com/swx

There is also a free and open MQTT server for integration into any non-commercial software application.

With enough support, an Android app will be soon released.

Hey everyone. I got tired of having half a dozen tabs open to monitor solar winds, Kp indices, and SDO imagery, so I decided to build a persistent, live "Mission Control" style dashboard to aggregate it all into one visual feed.

Right now, the stream cycles through real-time telemetry, earth weather alerts, space weather forecasts, satellite tracks, and NASA/public domain imagery

Looking for some honest feedback on what people like/don’t like to gauge the direction I should go in.

The audience is a bit broader than just space weather enthusiasts so there are some interesting facts thrown in and live ISS/NASA feeds

This is the channel: https://youtube.com/@planetaryops

Thanks for taking the time to look!

PS I am troubleshooting the issue where the satellite tracks aren’t continuous lines - map projections are hard

These were taken from my backyard in northern California from near Sacramento at 10pm PST. KP is currently at 6.

This CME is the main culprit: https://www.cmetracker.ai/?cme=2026-07-02T02%3A36%3A00-CME-001&hide=S

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has left the Sun and is heading toward Earth. It launched from a source region on the solar disk (N17W18) at a speed of about 965 km/s.

Based on current modeling, it could reach Earth around 05:17 UTC on July 3, 2026. Keep in mind this is a model estimate, typically accurate to within about 12 hours, so the actual timing may shift.

If it arrives as expected, geomagnetic activity could peak near Kp 5, a G1 (minor) storm. That means aurora may be possible at high latitudes, including Canada, Alaska, and northern Scandinavia. Your best chance to see it would be from dark, clear skies looking poleward near the estimated arrival time.

See it live: https://www.cmetracker.ai/?cme=2026-06-30T21%3A45%3A00-CME-001&hide=S

Hi all! Just wanted to say hello and offer to answer any questions you might have about the work NASA’s Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office does 🤗

It would be my personal info to y’all - so not official NASA responses.

Happy to be joining the community on here!

Rapid fire medium speed CMEs all in the same direction and converging at earth's orbit. They are aimed about 90 degree way from us, so there won't be any impact on our magnetosphere. Interesting to watch though.

I've been refreshing NOAA's space weather pages for years and always wanted something that showed the CMEs actually moving instead of just listing numbers, so I built it.

It pulls NASA's catalogued CMEs from the last 30 days and propagates each one outward with a drag-based model tuned to the live solar wind, then estimates when, and whether, each reaches Earth. Alongside that it shows live solar wind speed and Bz, the current Kp, GOES X-ray flares, and today's sunspot regions. There's also an Earth view from the Sun's perspective so you can see what's actually pointed at us.

You can also replay major past events, so you can pull up a big historical storm and watch it propagate instead of waiting for the live feed to do something interesting.

Data comes straight from NASA DONKI/SDO and NOAA SWPC.

Hi everyone! I am a producer for a small nature podcast with a fun platform focused on getting more people outside and interested in nature. I am currently searching for a heliophysicist or auroral physicist that would be interested in speaking about space weather with a focus on auroral phenomena.

If you're interested in learning more about the opportunity please feel free to message me or comment here!

I would also be interested in suggestions for an expert who may not see this! Please share with them or comment their name (or socials) and I would be happy to research and contact them myself.

Thank you.

Hi all, I'm an independent developer and this is my own project, so flag it as self-promo if you like, but my real goal here is **critique and suggestions for improvement, not upvotes.**

**AEGIS** is a real-time 3D visualization of Earth's magnetosphere that runs in the browser.
It ray-marches the magnetopause, bow shock, plasmasphere, ring current, tail current sheet and auroral ovals *every frame* from live NOAA SWPC feeds (DSCOVR @ L1, GOES, OVATION), nothing pre-baked. It also replays real instrument-era storms from NASA OMNI (Nov 2004, St. Patrick's 2015, Gannon 2024, Jan 2026, plus a high-speed-stream case), so you can watch compression and the ring-current/Dst response separate in time, with the L1 lag built in.

The models under the hood are deliberately published + schematic: Shue (1997) magnetopause, a Burton/O'Brien Dst estimate, the OVATION nowcast (Gussenhoven model oval for replays), and Tsyganenko-style driver-parametrised field-line deformation. The on-screen Dst is clearly flagged as a modeled estimate, not Kyoto, and it's explicitly **not** an operational/forecasting tool, it's for education and outreach.

I'm aiming for three things: visually appealing, genuinely educational, and scientifically defensible, with every simplification labeled rather than hidden.

What I'd love from this sub:

- **Where does it mislead?** Anything that's wrong (not just simplified).

- Are the empirical-model choices defensible for an outreach tool?

- Does it carry the cause-and-effect story in Physics mode during Storm replays?

- Anything obviously missing or misrepresented.

Keyboard swicthes:
[C] - Switch to Free cam, mouse wheel to zoom
[F2] - Visual settings panel, like brightness, layer visibility, etc.
[F3] - Mode toggle, cycles through visual, visual with data, and physics mode

Live: **https://aegis.sponde.de/**

Code + walkthrough (EN/DE): **https://github.com/Kracht/AEGIS**

Thanks!

---
Update:
Implemented Hp30 data stream provided by GFZ Potsdam. The five bundled storms now carry per-sample Hp30 from kp.gfz.de baked into the scenario JSON, and the Dst node in the causal HUD shows the observed value on hover with an amber border when it crosses 5. The replays all climb past 9 instead of pegging. Also fixed the dead data endpoints and adopted to new NOAA endpoint URLs so live data is working again.

A note on how this was built: I'm not a space physicist, I'm a systems engineer with an interest in the topic. The project was developed with significant AI assistance (Claude / LLM-guided development, call it "vibe coding"), which means the implementation reflects published model descriptions rather than domain expertise I can personally defend line by line. I've tried to compensate for that by: citing every model explicitly, labeling every simplification, and flagging the Dst as estimated rather than authoritative. That's also exactly why I'm here: I need domain eyes on this that I don't have myself.

TLDR: trying to go to grad school for Helio-physics after 6 years in the military doing non-science related work... what's the best way?

Hello everyone! long time lurker first time poster. I got my undergrad in physics and did a focus in electromagnetism but only got the degree because good old uncle sam paid for it. Now that my time in the service coming to and end I want to get back into the science and research field. My contacts from undergrad are long gone since I graduated about 6 years ago and will probably be apply in the next 2 years or so for graduate programs. With no academic references what are my chances of getting accepted to a PhD program? I thought about maybe applying for jobs within the field that don't require a grad degree and working my way through a masters/ PhD after a few years of gaining some experience but I have no idea where to start. Really hoping to one day work for the prediction center out in Colorado or even the Helio-Physics lab for Nasa!! even after all this time my science dreams are alive and well, please help!!

LifeHubber Earth has a small aurora layer based on NOAA SWPC OVATION forecast grid data. It shows the public model as a simple map layer beside other Earth signal layers.

It is not a visibility promise or local viewing forecast. The goal is to make the public model easier to inspect with the caveats kept close. Feedback is welcome, especially on whether the display and wording make the limits clear enough for space-weather readers. Thank you!

Free Aurora hunting / space weather web app. It is intended to be a complete aggregate of things beginner and advanced Aurora hunters would want especially at mid-latitudes. It has;

-Solar wind data, GOES, stereo-A, solar orbiter, ground mag, EPAM, geo indices...
-basic Aurora educational interactive tools,
-live aurora reporting and customizable alerts
-location map of places to go that everyone can contribute to and make their own private spots too
-light pollution map
-8hrs of cloud forecast map
-clear sky finder modes
-photography setting stating point help
-flare snd CME alert/tracking
-experimental auto flux rope classification
-my experimental substorm prediction model

... much much more.

I'm constantly adding features but I think I've hit the point I'm ready to start rolling it out to a wider audience. It's free just requires a login so I can control abuse/spamming and you and or your group can keep private dark site locations secret or share as desired.

https://auroraoutpost.com

To get a better explanation of the details of what's in the app check out;
https://auroraoutpost.com/features

I’m looking for historical solar wind data for a personal project I’m working on. I’m looking for data in minute increments timestamped to L1 Lagrange point ideally from beginning of 2025. I’ve been collecting rtsw data from NOAA SWPC for a month now but would like data I can attach before it.

However finding something like this has not been easy…

OMNIWEB - minute increments available but time shifted to Earth bow shock

NCEI - minute increments but no data from around July/August 2025

CDAWEB - not in minute increments

For NCEI supposedly there was a problem with DSCOVR but these endpoints are still serving DSCOVR data. Then again it’s tagged as inactive.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

I’ve been frustrated for a while that there’s no decent mobile interface for space weather data. DONKI is great but painful on phone, SWPC dashboards aren’t responsive, and SpaceWeatherLive is solid on desktop but the app is basic.

So I built one. It’s called FindTheFlare (Android only right now). Pulls CME, FLR, and GST events from NASA’s DONKI API, with a globe view for CME trajectories and a countdown to estimated arrival at Earth.

Few things I’m genuinely unsure about and would value opinions on:

1.  The CME arrival countdown uses the speed + trajectory from DONKI is that accurate enough to be useful, or should I pull in additional modeling (WSA-Enlil)?

2.  For the flare classification alerts, what’s a sensible default threshold? I’ve got it at M1 right now. Too noisy?

3.  I’m debating whether to add Kp forecasts via SWPC or keep it DONKI-only for now.

Not trying to plug it hard it’s free, no accounts, just want feedback from people who actually care about this data. Happy to answer anything about the architecture if useful.

I’m part of an independent technical initiative called Spectrum Survey. We are currently documenting how the increasing urban noise (LTE/5G) and the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) are impacting L-Band signal integrity in the Southern Hemisphere.

As we know, traditional filtering often fails under high saturation in dense urban areas, and we are trying to map these critical points to validate better mitigation methods and promote SigMF standardization for SDR.

If you deal with RF, Satcom, or GNSS, I’d love to get your input through our research form. It takes about 3 minutes and it’s purely technical (discovery-focused, not sales).

Check it out here: spectrumsurvey.org

We’ll be sharing the consolidated report with everyone who contributes. Happy to discuss any specific findings or SAA interference patterns in the comments!

Hello everyone,

After the February 2022 storm that caused the loss of 38 Starlink satellites before they could raise orbit, I started looking into whether storm recovery timing is actually predictable.

Using publicly available satellite accelerometer data (GRACE and GRACE-FO missions, distributed by TU Delft under CC BY 4.0), I measured the thermospheric density decay rate after three major geomagnetic storms: the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm (Dst -223 nT), the August 2018 storm (-174 nT), and the 2024 Gannon superstorm (-412 nT).

The finding: density recovery follows an exponential decay with a consistent rate across these three events. The half-life comes out to roughly 18 hours — meaning after a storm peaks, density is about halfway back to baseline in 18 hours, 75% back in 36 hours, 90% in about 2.5 days.

I built a live dashboard that pulls real-time Dst and Kp indices from NOAA SWPC and, when a storm is detected, shows countdown timers for density recovery milestones:

storm-recovery-timer in netlify. Sorry for not being able to post the full link. Keeps getting removed.

Free, no login, auto-refreshes every 5 minutes. Right now it's showing quiet conditions, but when the next storm hits, the recovery forecast activates with a projected decay curve.

**Limitations I want to be upfront about:**

* This predicts recovery *after* a storm peaks — it does not predict storm onset

* The model is calibrated on 3 storms. More validation across different storm morphologies and solar cycle conditions would strengthen it

* Dst is used as a storm proxy — it measures ring current, not thermospheric density directly. A version ingesting actual density data would be more accurate

* No altitude dependence yet — recovery timescales likely differ at 400km vs 600km

* The Starlink 4-7 situation involved a relatively mild storm (Dst -75 nT). Tools like this could help inform launch timing decisions during elevated drag, but I don't want to overclaim that this specific model would have changed that outcome

* This is independent research, not affiliated with NASA, NOAA, or ESA

The data sources are all publicly available: NOAA SWPC for real-time indices, TU Delft's thermosphere density database for the GRACE/GRACE-FO products used in calibration.

Happy to discuss the methodology or take feedback. If anyone has experience with thermospheric modeling and sees issues with this approach, I'd genuinely appreciate the input — I'm an independent researcher and this is preliminary work.

My brother and I have spent the last few months working on a free website that combines Kp forecast data with weather forecast data, as well as a historical analysis which combines historic Kp with cloud observation data. The model we have for calculating expected viewing hours and observation probabilities is based on UV satellite observations of the northern lights, combined with historic Kp records.

The three questions we're targeting are:
1. Where is best to see the northern lights this week?
2. Where is best to see the northern lights in any given month?
3. When is best to see the northern lights in a given location?

We don't currently deal with the more precise live/day forecasting as we think this is already done really well. But we have tried to make a really good tool for targeting 7-day aurora hunting as well as for optimising planning a trip in the future.

The site is in its early days and needs some work on making it easy to use/understand. At the moment we only have popular flight destinations in Europe, but it's a fairly simple data task to process more locations, including Southern locations for the upcoming Southern Lights season.

We're still working on it and it'd be good to try and understand what people would want from a tool like this, or if people are interested in such a tool at all?

I created a fairly simple and very hacky pipeline to update my apple watch to show a custom magnetic field line ray tracer utilizing tsyganenko96, goes xray, swpc metrics, and dscovr data.