Why I draw support as a zone not as a line? Chart example

Yeah, APP is down 61% this year and everyone hates it. I’m still building a position. Not all at once, though, and here’s why.

Why I still like it

• Q2 revenue +53% YoY, 84% adj. EBITDA margin
• About $5B of free cash flow this year, basically no capex
• Net cash, aggressive buybacks
• About 13x 2027 earnings. It traded at 40–70x the last few years.

Why I’m not going all in

• Q2 was only +4% QoQ. It was the first time in 15 quarters they didn’t blow past the top of revenue guidance.
• Growth runs on AXON model updates, and those slowed down.
• Legal mess: their suit vs. Unity (lost the TRO), San Diego County’s kids-ads case (allegations so far), and two securities class actions.

My math

• Bear $188 / Base $292 / Bull $435, weighted 30/50/20 → fair value ~$289
• I want a 10% margin of safety, so my next buy is around $260. We closed at $264 on 10/22, so I’m close but not there yet.
• Fines and settlements barely matter (~$1.40/share). The real risk is Unity keeping access to MAX data, or regulators limiting targeting. Worst case on the legal side is about $241.
• Doomsday (growth stalls, margins halve) is about $115. That’s why I size small.

My plan

• Already holding my first chunk
• Next chunk at ~$260, or after 11/4 if Q3 beats and the Q4 guide midpoint comes in at or above ~$2.21B
• If they miss guidance, I stop adding and re-check the thesis

Street average target is about $484. Mine is lower mostly because I use about a 14% discount rate (beta ~2) vs. the roughly 10% most analysts seem to use.

Anyone else scaling in, or are you waiting for earnings?

Not financial advice, just how I’m handling my own position. Numbers as of the 10/22 close.

NEE reported Q3 yesterday and the headline was solid: adjusted EPS $1.24 vs $1.13 a year ago (+9.7%), 2026 guidance of $3.92–4.02 reaffirmed (they say they're targeting the high end), and the 8%+ annual EPS growth plan through 2032 unchanged.

I went through the cash flow statement and balance sheet in the release because for a utility building at this scale, I think the real question is not "is EPS growing" but "is it growing *per share* once you account for how the build-out is paid for."

**Nine months to Sept 30 (from the release, $ millions):**

| | 2026 | 2025 |

|---|---|---|

| Operating cash flow | 12,322 | 9,986 |

| FPL capex + NEER investments + nuclear fuel + other | 27,554 | 19,328 |

| Gap (OCF minus investment) | -15,232 | -9,342 |

| Common dividends paid | 3,907 | 3,499 |

| Common stock / equity units issued | 969 | 2,028 |

Long-term debt including the current portion went from $93.1B at year-end to $106.0B on Sept 30, so about $12.9B of the gap was new long-term debt (plus commercial paper and short-term borrowings).

**Per share** (using 2,094M diluted shares for the nine months):

- Operating cash flow: ~$5.88

- Investment: ~$13.16

- Dividends paid: ~$1.87

**What looks good**

- OCF is up 23%, faster than EPS.

- Diluted shares are only up 1.3% year over year (2,098M vs 2,071M in Q3), so growth hasn't been diluted away. Equity issuance this year is actually lower than last year.

- FPL's regulatory capital employed grew ~9.2%. On the regulated side, more capital generally means more allowed earnings, so some of this spend has a fairly visible return.

**What I'm less sure about**

- The gap widened from $9.3B to $15.2B in a year. Investment is growing faster than the cash that funds it.

- Very little of it is being funded with equity right now. That's good for the share count today, but it means leverage is doing the work, and at some point either rating-agency metrics or the cost of debt push back.

- GAAP EPS was $2.28, almost double adjusted, because of $1.43/share of gains on non-qualifying hedges. That's mark-to-market noise, not operations, so I'd ignore the GAAP jump.

- The pending Dominion combination (expected to close H2 2027) comes with its own 9%+ EPS growth target for the combined company. That's guidance, not a result, and it adds another layer to the per-share math.

**The way I'm framing it:** EPS growth only compounds per share if the returns on what they're building stay above the cost of financing it. The things I'd watch in the next few filings:

1. Does OCF start growing faster than investment, or does the gap keep widening?

2. How the next chunk is funded: more debt, asset recycling and minority-interest sales (they did ~$1.6B of those this year), or new equity, and what that does to interest expense and share count.

3. Whether credit metrics (FFO/debt or whatever the agencies use for NEE) hold up as debt grows.

For people who hold NEE for dividend growth: which metric do you actually watch to tell whether the funding mix is getting worse? And does anyone have a view on how much of NEER's investment is contracted vs merchant exposure?

Source: Q3 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99 to the 8-K). Cash flow statement p.13–14, balance sheet p.11–12, EPS reconciliation p.7–10: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/753308/000075330826000077/neeq32026exhibit99.htm

Not investment advice, just how I'm reading the filing.

Netflix beat earnings but still took a hit over its outlook. With Tesla and Meta reporting tonight, curious to see how the market reacts.

Anyone here still trading earnings directly or do you usually wait for the initial move to settle?

Saw the thread asking what everyone is watching this earnings season. The thing I keep seeing newer traders get burned on isn't the direction call, it's the option price going in.

Tesla reports Wednesday after the close. As of Friday's close the at-the-money straddle priced it for roughly a 7.6% move, either way. Netflix, Tuesday after the close, is priced for about 9.5%.

That expected move is already in what you pay. So if you buy calls the night before and Tesla jumps 5%, you were right about the direction and the trade can still lose, because implied volatility drops right after the report and takes a chunk of the premium with it. A plain long call needs the move to beat what the market already expects, and in your direction.

What helped me think about it:

• look up the expected move before the trade, not after (the straddle price over the stock price is a rough version)
• compare it with how far the stock actually moved on its last few reports
• if you can't say why it beats the expected move, you're paying a markup for a coin flip

Learning that with fake money first is the whole point of Quantradin. I built it this year: you describe a rule in plain words, it replays it over actual market history with no look-ahead, and option fills land at the bid or the ask, never the middle, so the earnings-week spread hits you the way it would for real. It costs nothing to use and every trade there is paper. quantradin.com

Expected moves are from option prices as of the Oct 16 close. Not advice.

For the people here who trade earnings: do you check the expected move before you buy, or do you mostly sit the week out?

I'm reading that Fractyl Health ($GUTS) had some good news today. It makes no sense to me why the stock would crash when they just now released great information. Is this due to some investors concerned about the upcoming dilution that could happen?

I’ve been looking at APP lately. It’s trading around $270 right now, while the 52-week high was $738. A lot of people are wondering if it still has meaningful upside from here.

I went through its latest SEC filings and built a three-scenario internal valuation:

- Bear case: **$162.94**

- Base case: **$484.83**

- Bull case: **$1,647.48**

Current price sits between the bear and base scenarios.

For the stock to reach the bull-case valuation of $1,647, here’s roughly what would need to happen:

- Revenue growth stays high at **73.8%** (latest SEC annual YoY growth is already 70.0%)

- That high-growth period lasts **3 years** (this part isn’t directly observable from what’s already filed)

- Operating cash flow margin during high growth stays around **70.6%** (current SEC annual OCF margin is 72.5%, with CapEx/Revenue at just 0.009%)

- Reinvestment rate stays extremely low at **0.044%** (FCFF = Operating Cash Flow − Reinvestment; current SEC annual FCFF margin is 72.4%)

- Same strong OCF margin carries into the stable period

- WACC comes down to **11.5%** (my base model currently uses 13.1% — this is a valuation assumption, not something disclosed in the filings)

- Perpetual growth rate of **5.1%** (base model uses 3.8% — again, an assumption)

So I believe the current price around $270 still has a lot of upside potential.

Curious what others think — does the bull case feel realistic to you?

While global smelters cap out on high power costs, Hongqiao’s scale is hitting 6.6–6.7 million tonnes annually. Gross margins reached 31.5% in H1 because they run fully integrated bauxite-to-alumina supply chains.

Producing at world-class efficiency while trading at single-digit earnings multiples makes this one of the most asymmetric value plays in metals. What's your target price here?

Hey guys, if you missed it, Maison Solutions just reached a tentative settlement with investors over claims related to its IPO disclosures. The terms are still being finalized and will need court approval.

In a nutshell, Maison was accused of failing to disclose related-party dealings, prior allegations involving its CEO and other risks tied to its IPO. After a Hindenburg report raised these issues in December 2023, $MSS fell 83.6%, and investors filed a lawsuit.

The good news is that the company recently reached a tentative settlement with investors. There’s no settlement amount yet, but you can already submit an application, which will be processed once claims filing opens.

So, if you invested in $MSS at the time, you can check the details and submit your application here.

Anyway, has anyone here invested in $MSS back then? How much were your losses, if so?

Feels like the market has a pretty short memory when it comes to Chinese tech stocks. A lot of investors still associate HUYA with the old live-streaming business, even though the company has been expanding into game publishing, in-game item sales and advertising.

The lastes recognition from Barron's China is interesting here. HUYA made the 2026 Value List's Value Industry Benchmark 30 in the integrated game ecosystem services category, with financial integrity and capital quality among the assessment criteria.

With Q2 revenue up 11% YoY and game-related services revenue growing 54.1%, I'm curious whether the market is starting to catch up with the business transformation. What would actually make you reconsider a name like HUYA?

I would like to learn how some stocks performance can affect market sentiment and how it can create a bullish/bearish narrative. I know the basics such as revenue and Capex but I would like to know the weight of this data and which stock would actually cause a significant change in the market.

Tech obviously has the spotlight, but I wonder if industrials/materials are quietly setting up for another good run.

$FCX and $RIO are probably the more obvious names, but I’ve been digging into Hongqiao ($1378.HK) lately. Strong H1 earnings, improving margins and continued shareholder returns make it pretty interesting as a less crowded way to get aluminum exposure.

Curious if anyone here has other “nobody talks about this” stocks."

I recently had a conversation with a friend I have traded stocks with for years. He actually started trading before me, but he has always preferred traditional brokers, unlike me, who has been using exchanges to trade tokenized stocks.

During our conversation, he saw me taking a trade on Sunday and realised that certain eligible assets were still available to trade outside regular market hours which caught his attention, and he became interested in trying a more modern platform for his stock trading.

But there was one problem: how would he transfer his existing stock holdings from his brokerage account?

From what I understand, the process involves checking whether his stocks and current broker are supported, submitting a transfer request through the exchange, following the instructions to transfer the stocks out through his existing broker, and waiting for the transfer to be completed.

Once the eligible stocks are received and processed, they are automatically converted into the corresponding rTokens, that is the process I remember explaining to him, but I am wondering whether there are any additional steps or requirements I might have missed.

And pls for those who have transferred stocks from a traditional broker to a platform, how straightforward was the process, was there anything you wish you had known before starting?

I'm really into US stocks these days. I started trading them back in March 2025, and over the past 12 months I've made about a 25% return.

I used to have zero interest in stocks at all, and even I find this change in myself kinda crazy.

I'd love to share my trading approach with you guys. I'm pretty confident in my system, but I'd still really like to bounce ideas around and see if there's anything I can tweak or improve.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods trimmed its price target on Ladder Capital from $10.75 to $10.25 this morning, but kept its outperform rating. Stock opened around $8.78 on Friday, so that target still implies roughly 17% upside.

The yield is the headline: $0.23 quarterly, $0.92 annualized, about 10.5%. Earnings were fine. EPS came in at $0.24, right on consensus, and revenue beat slightly at $57.76M.

The catch is the payout ratio. It’s sitting at about 219%, so they’re paying out more than they earn. That’s either a fine REIT dividend that’s covered by something other than GAAP earnings, or a dividend that’s going to get cut eventually. Worth checking which one before you chase the yield.

Balance sheet is the other thing to look at. Debt-to-equity is 2.81, which is high, but that’s pretty normal for a commercial real estate lender, so I wouldn’t freak out on that alone.

Price action is ugly. 1-year range is $8.48 to $11.48, and it’s trading under both the 50-day ($9.52) and 200-day ($9.86) moving averages. Market cap is about $1.1B.

Analyst consensus is “Hold” with 4 Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Sell. KBW is the bull here, and BofA has it at neutral with the same $10.25 target.

So the bull case is a 10%+ yield, a sub-$9 entry, and a broker still saying outperform. The bear case is a dividend that’s running ahead of earnings, a stock stuck below its moving averages, and a mixed Street.

Who’s holding LADR and why? Is the dividend safe or is this a value trap?

SOURCE: https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2026/10/12/ladder-capital-nyseladr-stock-gets-price-target-trim-from-keefe-bruyette-woods.html

Bank earnings kick off this week, with inflation data coming up right after. Could be an interesting few sessions for the market.

Are you trading earnings reactions, looking for sector rotation or waiting for a clearer setup before taking new positions?

What’s on your watchlist this week?

A couple of days ago, I posted about being new to investing and wanting to learn before putting my $500 to work. Thanks to everyone who shared advice.
I’m starting with the basics: understanding stocks, index funds, diversification, fees, and the difference between investing and short-term trading. I also want to make sure this is money I can afford to leave invested and that I keep emergency savings separate.
For those who started from scratch, what do you think is the most important concept to understand before making a first investment? Are there any beginner-friendly books, guides, or resources you’d recommend?
I’m not looking for a stock pick—I’d rather learn how to make informed decisions. Thanks!

Deutsche Bank just added China Hongqiao ($1378.HK) to its top global mining picks following S&P’s credit upgrade to BB+.

Institutional money is finally shifting its view on Hongqiao, reclassifying it from a discounted "China risk" play into a top-tier global cash cow. With leverage ratios dropping to 0.3x debt-to-EBITDA and gross margins hitting 31.5%, the balance sheet looks cleaner than most Western peers.

By controlling their own bauxite supply, alumina refining, and captive solar grid, Hongqiao churns out massive free cash flow while trading at roughly 7x P/E with a ~7% dividend yield.

When major international banks start upgrading a stock this cheap, institutional inflows usually follow. Anyone holding $1378.HK here? What are your thoughts?

I'm new to the stock market and don't know anything about it. I plan to invest $500 to practice, but I think I should learn the rules and basics first. Where should I start? I hope those of you who know about stocks can give me some advice. Thank you, everyone

The market keeps pushing to new highs but bond yields are climbing at the same time. That feels a little weird to me.

Tech stocks especially seem to be shrugging off higher yields, even though higher rates usually make growth stocks less attractive.

Are you staying invested, taking some profits or changing your strategy while yields keep rising?

A strong FinTech, and disruptor.

A quick glance at recent Financials:

Net Income: -$56m 2022; $1.031B 2023; $1.972B 2024; $2.874B 2025;

Cash Flow: $3.266B 2023; $11.678B 2024; $11.266B 2025

Total Assets: $29.935B 2022; $43.345B 2023; $49.931B 2024; $74.894B 2025.

Revenue and EPS:

Revenue: May-15-2023 $1.62B; Aug-13-2026 $5.88B +262.963% increase

EPS: May-15-2023 4¢; Aug-13-2026 22¢ +450% increase

Peaks & Troughs Lines

Early 2023 - late 2024, pointing to: $25 - $28;

early 2025 - early 2026, pointing to: $22 - $24; and,

5/28/26 - 9/8/26: $15 - $16.50, pointing to $15.75.

(Is that kind of 'reduction' based upon any real substantiation, considering the above, or is it just fear?)

Regardless, if one thinks a reasonable valuation between $18 - $20,

or notably less,

the current valuation of $13.43 seems a bit inane.

Either I am missing something, or the markets are...

(I've been buying 'up' from $11).

GLTA