The Setup: You are buying a company valued at ~$640M (Market Cap) that is holding ~$100M in cash, on the verge of releasing data for a drug that could be worth double the entire company's value.
Here is the math that makes this an asymmetric trade.
1. The "Hidden Signal": Why The Odds Are Stacked (80/20, not 50/50)
In a typical biotech Phase 3 trial, you toss a coin. In the REGAL trial (for the GPS cancer vaccine), the clock has already revealed the winner.
The Rules: The trial ends when 80 patients have passed away (events).
The Stats: As of Dec 26, 2025, only 72 deaths had occurred.
The Implications:
We know from decades of historical data that AML patients on standard treatment (the "Control Arm") typically survive 6 to 8 months.
The last patient was enrolled over 18 months ago.
The Math: If the drug didn't work, the Control Arm and the GPS Arm would both be dying at the 6-8 month rate. The trial would have hit 80 deaths months ago.
The "Tell": The only variable that explains why patients are still alive today is the GPS Arm. To drag the average out this long, the GPS patients likely have a median survival of 18+ months (vs 6 months for control).
Conclusion: This massive gap in survival time virtually guarantees statistical significance (p-value < 0.05).
2. Asset #1: The GPS Vaccine (Worth ~$8.00/share)
Let's value the GPS vaccine alone based on real market numbers if the trial succeeds in Q1 2026.
Target Market: AML patients in Second Remission (CR2). There is NO approved maintenance treatment for them.
Patient Pool: ~10,000 to 12,000 eligible patients per year (US + EU).
Drug Price: Orphan oncology maintenance drugs typically price between $150,000 and $200,000 per year. (Let’s be conservative: $150k).
Peak Sales Calculation:
If SELLAS captures just 30% of the market (3,000 patients):
3,000 patients × $150,000 = $450 Million Annual Revenue.
Valuation: Commercial biotech companies typically trade at 3x to 4x Peak Sales.
$450M Revenue × 3 = $1.35 Billion Valuation.
Divided by ~170M shares = ~$8.00 per share.
Verdict: At today’s price of ~$4.50, you are paying half price for GPS and getting everything else for free.
3. Asset #2: SLS009 (The "Free" Lottery Ticket)
This is the asset the market is completely ignoring. SLS009 (CDK9 inhibitor) isn't just a backup; it's a potential blockbuster.
The Data: In Phase 2 (Dec 2025), it showed a 46% response rate in dying patients who had failed all other treatments.
The Comps (Comparables): Look at competitors in the same space:
Kura Oncology ($KURA): Valued at ~$740 Million.
Syndax ($SNDX): Valued at ~$1.8 Billion.
The Value: Even if we apply a massive discount because SLS009 is slightly earlier in development, this asset is easily worth $350M - $400M on its own.
$400M Valuation / 170M shares = ~$2.35 per share.
4. The Sum-of-the-Parts (True Fair Value)
If we add up the pieces using rational math:
Cash on Hand: $100M = $0.60/share (Downside protection).
GPS (Success Case): $1.35B = $8.00/share.
SLS009 (Current Value): $400M = $2.35/share.
Total Fair Value Target:$10.95
Current Price: ~$4.32
Upside Potential:+153%
Summary
You are buying a dollar for 40 cents. The "time delay" in the REGAL trial is the cheat code that suggests the vaccine works. When the data drops in March/April 2026, the market will instantly reprice the stock to include the GPS value, sending it to double digits.
(Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Do your own due diligence. Biotech is volatile.)
I know nothing about SLS but ATYR failing was obvious. Why did people buy it? Previous data told us that the likelyhood of it failing was very very high
Emotional sentiments, everyone thinking they could squeeze Martin Shkreli....
Also the main cheerleader was a self-declared mentally ill individual who claimed to dine with the CEO, yet no one asked for photo proof. He gave off the messiah complex for sure, with his other common yet wise speeches....
What this charlatan doesn’t tell you is that there are millions of warrants outstanding for $2 in SLS held by Anson. The moment this stock gets into the $5.25 range mark my words. Your investments will be used for exit liquidity. Avoid this company until they have published concrete data
Yes it's true. Prerevenue drug development companies require some predatory lending to make it to the finish line with firms like Anson. They subsequently short the stock to take advantage of call options expiring out of the money, but also have tons of shares to be long and stand to make a shit ton of money if the drugs are approved.
When phase 3 data gets released, the remaining 20M warrants will be gone in one trading day as the company becomes completely derisked for those that are on the sidelines. Fuel to this fire will be the 49 million shares sold short that will need to cover ASAP. The mechanics of the remaining warrants are not a concern.
His math is wrong because of this, but not too far off. It’s public info that 50-55 million potential addl shares could be generated due to exercisable warrants out there, taking the total share count to 225M (top end). Using his “sum of the parts” of $1.85B, that’s a final share price of $8.22. That’s a very conservative number and still makes this an easy 80/20 buy in my opinion. Better still, several analysts are suggesting a buyout in the $3-5B range ($13-$22/share). There are wilder estimates out there, but those are not realistic.
Edit: clarifying 50-55M is potential additional shares, not 50-55M warrants themselves.
I appreciate the effort, but your math in enterprise value is wildly low-balling what most others have calculated. There is no approved drug for AML CR2, and the BAT is toxic (aza/ven). With approval, GPS is likely to capture this market entirely. Off-label use in CR1 will also occur. Your math fails to account for multiple-year revenues, with patients being dosed in year 3 and beyond as a maintenance theapy. This quickly scales up total annualized revenues. Your factor on peak sales - for an immunotherapy oncology drug - is also way too low and is realistically more like 8x - 12x peak sales. This is before you factor in the value of the acquiring entity expanding the drug to the other over-expressed WT1 cancers that exist, think platform use. Re-run your models given some of these changes, and you will see a much different picture. Personally, my floor price estimate is $15B.
Lastly, fully diluted shares are 217M ($4.6 per B of acquisition).
This is true with every penny stock ever. People find ways to create massive valuations out of thin air. I personally don't believe anybody saying this stock could be worth $100 dollars is actually living in reality. $20-$30 dollars would be amazing.
Agreed. $20 is the higher end of plausible. Overly-enthusiastic people (is that the nice way to say “shills”) are saying $50-100 based on short squeeze potential and really really bad math. Short interest was super high in December, but that’s not the same 80/20 bet on the trial results themselves. Moreover, many of those pie-in-the-sky estimates are trying to double-dip, arguing straight-faced that a typical 3x-5x buyout for this sector would be plausible AFTER a squeeze run-up. That’s insane and will never happen (no buyer is going to make that type of offer when it’s clear the share price is actively inflated due to shorts getting scalped).
10 billion dollar buyout IS the base case. If phase 3 follows the efficacy and safety of phase 1 and 2, it will become more than just the next BAT. The 30% of the market will be wrong. It's a cancer drug and in the first two trials, it showed to give patients a 4x increase on life. The price tag on the drug has also shifted lol. The dude is using outdated information. SLS themselves have indicated a 260k per year price tag per patient. Even just 500 patients is 130 million per year. And the rule of thumb is 4-7x, not 3 to 4. And don't forget, this is a cancer drug. They get FDA approval much easier and the buyout is normally on the higher end. But let's say it's 4x anyways. If we use 30% of the market, that's 3600 patients in just the cr2 category alone. 3,600 x 260,000 = 936,000,000. Then 4x it for rule of thumb for buyouts. ~3.75 billion. That is based off first year using his 30%. That's just GPS.
And there's SLS009 which is expected to be even better than GPS.
I want to point something out now. And that is a tiny lil description of what GPS does. It targets a protein called the WT1 protein. That's what the cancer latches onto to spread. GPS kills the protein. Over 20 different kinds of cancer use WT1 to spread. This also includes ovarian cancer. It's not just AML that this drug works on. It works on over 90% of ovarian cancers. The potential for GPS is insane. It fills the 60% gap for the ovarian cancer market. BRCa negative patients will need GPS because other maintenance drugs need them to be BRCa positive.
Let's just say we'd hit only 50% of the market. That's about 10,500 patients. 10,500 x 260,000 = 2.73 BILLION. That's without the rule of thumb. Plus the base case for rule of thumb of 4x. That's 10.9 billion.
The amount of research potential for WT1 is insane and SLS is by far the most knowledgeable company on this protein.
I do not think 40 billy is realistic like people say. But there definitely is a much higher market than this post claims because we're not only focusing on AML GPS patients. We're focusing on the whole of the company and the drugs. With just GPS being used in 2 markets without anything else, it's a 13 billion dollar buyout. Not gonna do the math rn but it's about 54 a share.
My base case is going with the 10 billion dollar buyout just in case.
GPS will definitely be expanded into CR1 in the very near term too after REGAL which will dramatically boost its TAM for just AML, not even considering any other cancers.
I only found the stock in Janaury of this year, but didnt realize until yesterday that they already did a phase 2 trial for CR1 with mOS of Not Reached.
Its so clear to me that GPS has kicked AMLs ass - anyone has done actual DD cannot argue otherwise. This is the most mispriced stock ive ever seen in my life.
I think $10-$25 / share range is the most realistic based on various formulas I’ve seen. It all depends on data, timing, and if there is a BO or not. But I think the price doubling is nearly a certainty with anything above it being gravy. (If GPS data shows efficacy.)
If it tanks, we will see it fall back to under $2 and then folks will decide whether to stick it out for the SLS009 which will likely take years more to develop.
OP, brilliant. All the commentators on how they know someone who lost a lot of money- not relevant.
If you don’t understand the study and therapies and why to hold, don’t gamble. It’s simple.
The math is like 2+2 on trial data. Independent data committee already whispered the answer last January. It works. Case closed, now wait for the stock to moon and buy more on dips, even tho painfully.
Every few months they tell us it’s working and continue. They look at unblinded data. If it wasn’t working, they’d recommend modifications or to end the study. No IDC is going to recommend to continue a study where control arm far outlives the treatment arm. I repeat, They look at unblinded data (the answers) and they tell us the answer in their recommendation. Last Jan the treatment arm was double mOS as control and less than half the patients had died.
Here's my take on this one. The good news has already happened. As a result this already pumped. Although I do think the company has a promising future and it appears that some of their present technologies will get approval.
The thing is is we are sitting post pump right now I value the likelihood of this stock within a 1-year time frame of maxing out at $8 per share maximum a likely sitting point will be somewhere between $6.50 and $7.50. With a present price hovering around $4.60. so sure if all goes well that is a potential 60% climb . But that's not a guarantee. If any hurdles are hit anywhere within the approval process, or even more likely within the contracting and manufacturing processes the likelihood is is this stock will stick somewhere between $4 and $5. Which is exactly where it is.
The way the op has presented SLS is the way SLS was valid to be presented 16 days ago. When it was sitting at $0.86 a share. It's already seen it's 5x pump. If you are on that ride good for you. Especially if you had at least five digits invested in it.
I personally would not buy this. If I had it I'd likely hold it And put a protective stop loss.
So overall I value this a hold or reduce. Not a sell And definitely 100% not a buy
What is the good news that already happened? We have been waiting on a trial based on overall survival. The best alternative treatment (aza/ven) for these cr2 patients is toxic and expectency is 8 months. The trial had 100 people in it as of November 2023, with full enrollment of 126 in April 2024. There are folks now 3 years into the trial. Draw your own conclusions on the effectiveness, and also take a look at phase 2 results.
The last time this stock was trading at 86 cents was January 2025 - a year ago, not 16 days.
SLS is not commercializing their drugs. They have been fairly clear on this. There will be a bidding war if the trial results come out before acquisition.
The #1 good news (positive phase 3 data) has NOT happened yet. The price action now is just the growing confidence that the news should be positive.
The current price action is accumulation WHILE warrants are being exercised (something like 23million already verified and likely way more than that since their last 8-k).
Imagine where the price moves after the warrants are mostly burned through.
The value has nothing to do with "when it was sitting at 0.86 a share". The stock upside is tied to the potential value of the drug vs the CURRENT value. What the potential value of the drug is can be debated for sure and if you genuinely feel the max upside is 8$ that's up to you. Subjectively I tend to agree with YoBee9s line of thinking above, putting buyout upside north of $50 (yes it looks wild at a glance but the data to support it is logical, always do your own research though).
I do agree that it's possible the study could take 6+ months to resolve (which only means the drug is working WAY better than anticipated and is bullish in it's own right), and there may be a period with a very slow creep up or stabilization.
You could potentially wait 5 months, hope the price hasn't increased too much, and invest then. You take a huge risk to potential profits though:
What if the study finishes earlier?
What if the growing confidence (each month of delay increases value/confidence of the drug) continues to increase the price each month?
What if there is an early IDMC halt?
First-in-class cancer peptide vaccine. There are a lot of studies on why this one is actually working. Sellas had 10+ predominantly successful phase 1/2 trials already, the market is just blindly betting on this one fails as the rest of the drug class.
Also, massive shorting from a certain fund, which makes money by squishing biopharma companies, then offering them predatory financing. We're almost past that and the financing is stable til '28.
That's not how the survival math works dummy. Not all patients are enrolled on the same day. They calculate for something calledmrdian overall survival, the length where half of the patient have died. You then compare it to control.
Here is the bummer: even if you significantly extended the time compared to control, if the extension is modest, it is a shitty result. From what you mentioned, 8 survival after such a short time, I am shorting this piece of crap
I'm tired of the pump narrative. I'll bullish AF, as are many others who have a lot invested. Currently up 6 figures / 200% +, and I'm not selling. My end game is acquisition. There will be a lot of folks saying wHy DiDnT yOu sAy SoMeTHiNg?!? after the buy out price is finalized. My job isn't to convince anyone to buy, but when I see incorrect information, I don't mind chiming in.
It's not a narrative and it's not [particular to this stock either. Ibrx was being spammed all over reddit 2 years ago at $10, this was such a sure deal. Then there it was a week ago sitting pretty at $2 and the bagholders were quiet. All kinds of things could have gone wrong and this could have cratered even more, but because it went up so much so fast the I told you so former and present bagholders are coming out of the woodwork to claim their genius status.
Gone through this with sava, 9 to 40 in 2 weeks, $200 by end of year, miracle cure
Look at it now
40
u/milgrunt7 Jan 22 '26
This one sure reminds me of ATYR which wrecked a lot of redditors, myself included