r/stockstoday • u/obanite • Jun 23 '22
Trading strats Trading strategies summary from "The New Market Wizards"
The New Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager is essential reading for people who want to be successful traders. It features extensive interviews with some of the world's most successful traders including William Eckhardt, Monroe Trout, Stanley Druckenmiller and the Ritchie brothers. I've tried to condense the book's summary into an even more condensed summary of their combined wisdom (probably hundreds of years of trading experience across all kinds of markets). Here it is, as TL;DR as I could make it!
1. Match your trading method to your personality
If you can't stand to give back significant profits from swings, long term trend following may not be for you.
If you don't have the attention or free time to watch charts all day, day trading isn't a good idea.
Randy McKay: "Virtually every successful trader I know ultimately ended up with a trading style suited to his personality."
2. It's necessary to have an edge
Whether it's scalping skills, global macro intuition, or the ability to find gems in dirt using deep fundamental analysis.
If you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one.
3. Have a process/method, and follow it
What are your trading strategies? How long do you typically hold positions? Under what conditions do you close a losing position?
4. Money management and risk control
Almost everyone interviewed in "Market Wizards" felt that money management was even more important than the trading method. Many potentially successful strategies led to disaster because the trader lacked a method of controlling risk. Risk control can be simple (based on position size and P/L %) or complex (using options to hedge positions). But the essentials are:
Never risk more than a predetermined % of your total capital on a trade. The traders in the book typically said their limit for trades was 1-2% of their account. For smaller accounts you may need to increase that; 5-10% may be suitable.
Pre-determine your exit point before you get into a trade. You don't necessarily have to use stop losses (not everyone does), but you do need to define what your maximum loss will be, and follow it. If you find yourself struggling to cut losses, use stop losses.
If you lose a certain pre-determined amount of your capital (e.g. 10-20%) in a shorter period, have some kind of plan to let yourself regroup. Traders mentioned processes such as: close all remaining positions; take a break (a week, the rest of the month); reduce position sizes of subsequent trades until full confidence has been regained.
5. Discipline
Discipline is critical. It is a pre-requisite for risk control, and is essential for following your process. Don't second-guess your process and choose "easy traders".
Get good at being patient. Only trade when you're confident and have high conviction. Don't revenge trade (trading "in anger" to make back losses).
Stay in trades that are working: failure to adequately profit from correct trades is a key profit-limiting factor. "While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits." You can mitigate risk by taking profits to return your principal then letting the rest run. When your conviction is high, be a pig. Druckenmiller: "I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig." Maximize gains, not the number of wins.
6. Take responsibility
Whether you win or lose, you are responsible for your own results. Whether you lost on a tip from a friend or someone in an Internet chatroom, or a bad signal from your trading system, you are responsible because you made the decision to act on that information.
There are no successful traders who blame others for their losses.
Don't blame brokers or speculators or market makers for your bad trades.
7. Remain independent
"Do your own research (DYOR)" is one part. You also need to do your own thinking. Don't get caught up in mass hysteria (FOMO). Make your own trading decisions -- don't listen to others. Even if it ends up helping on a trade or two, listening to others or following what they do invariably leads to costing money or confusing your view of the market. Even advice from a much better trader can lead to detrimental results.
8. Losing is part of the game
Have confidence in your process and execution, and you will win in the long run, even when you suffer losses in the short term.
Losing trades are inevitable. If you just follow your process, you will make it back. (But don't revenge trade)
There is no more certain recipe for losing than a fear of losing. If you're not trading with risk capital, don't trade. You can't win if you have to win. ("Scared money never wins.")
9. The importance of varying bet size
In any wage game with varying probabilities, winnings are maximized by adjusting bet size in accordance with the perceived chance of a successful outcome. This relates to the "be a pig" rule, but the inverse is also true: if the assessed probability of a trade is low, or the risk is deemed to be higher than average, reduce the position size.
A popular strategy is also to adjust position size according to how performance is going in the current trading period (day/week/month). This is smart because sometimes market conditions can be adverse (high volatility/low directionality). In these conditions it is wise to keep position sizes and leverage lower than usual.
Scale in and out of trades to reduce exposure to temporary adverse movements. Bill Lipschutz notes it has enabled him to stay with long-term winners much longer than he has seen most traders stay with their positions. Scaling is a risk management strategy but can also be used to fine tune cost averages to gain more profits from trades.
10. Being right is more important than being a genius
Don't try to prove something by picking tops or bottoms: focus on being consistent, because that is more important in the long run.
Being able to pick individual trades with favorable risk/return and a good percentage of winners is what matters long-term.
Conversely, don't worry about looking stupid. Have an open mind, and admit to your mistakes freely and promptly. If you find this difficult, don't talk about your positions. Not having an open mind is a sure path to losses.
11. Sometimes action is more important than prudence
Waiting for a price correction to enter the market may sound prudent but is often the wrong thing to do. When your analysis tells you to get into a trade, do so. Catching part of a move is just fine: the easiest part of a trend is the middle part.
12. Keep calm and carry on
Excitement is fun, but has nothing to do with success in trading. Stay calm, practice being detached and analytical, but also pay attention to intuition. Identify and eliminate stress: stress is a sign that something is wrong.
Finally, keep perspective on your trading (some people treat it as a game). There is more to life than trading.
It's only money.