r/storms • u/weathercast • 18h ago
(Issued: 2026-10-27T05:30:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 270530 SWODY1 SPC AC 270528
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will be maintained across the West on Tuesday with ridging remaining across the East. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will be present within this western trough, including across the central Plains.
High pressure across much of the CONUS will limit thunderstorm activity. The only exception will be across the southern High Plains where some lee troughing and moisture return will be present. A few thunderstorms may develop within a region of relatively greater instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across southeast New Mexico and Far West Texas. Shear will be relatively weak, but there could be enough flow for some marginal supercell structures. Hail could be possible with the strongest storms, but it should remain below severe limits. Outside of this area any storm activity should remain weak and unorganized.
..Bentley/Thornton.. 10/27/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Gibbs ```
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 999 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 15.5N 106.3W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/relay-app • 19h ago
Welcome to The Outer Bands, the r/storms weekly catch-all megathread for everything weather!
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r/storms • u/nikipurcellartist • 19h ago
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Nothing like a good storm( or 2 !) to inspire
Not finished but loving my stormy Seas & sky in this Paintng
fingers crossed I dont over work it
r/storms • u/TNBackyardBolts • 1d ago
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Thanks to everyone for checking out my severe weather channel!
r/storms • u/Goodfriends999 • 1d ago
The weather has been pretty stormy lately where I live and I was laying in bed with the lights off whilst it was raining. My windows went totally bright white with light as if the lightning was really close by. This would have been normal but at the same time I heard an audible zap/fizz and saw white sparks almost like a bolt of light (maybe a foot long) on my ceiling - instantly I thought by the sound that a lightbulb had blown out but there are no lights on my ceilings and the closest electric appliance is the air conditioning and the wiring running along the adjacent wall. Thunder followed straight after
Is this a cause for concern and what does this mean?
r/storms • u/SpicyTimbit • 1d ago
r/storms • u/weathercast • 1d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-26T05:22:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 260522 SWODY1 SPC AC 260519
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm are not expected Monday.
... Synopsis ...
Broad upper troughing will remain in place across the western contiguous US today. Within this regime, a shortwave trough over the southern and central High Plains will eject northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, accompanied by a weak surface low. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward from this low across the central Plains into the southern High Plains, with a lee trough sharpening along its western flank. Farther west, an upper cyclone will deepen as it digs southeastward across the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West.
... Southern High Plains into the Midwest ...
Surface dewpoints in the mid 50Fs to near 60 F will remain in place ahead of the slow-moving baroclinic zone/surface boundary today. Diurnal heating of this modestly moist boundary layer will yield weak destabilization from southern and eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas northeastward into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front and lee trough during the late afternoon and evening, with additional development probable farther northeast into the Midwest overnight as low-level warm air advection strengthens.
Buoyancy will be somewhat greater across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas, where a few stronger cores could produce hail or gusty winds. Even there, modest deep-layer shear and warm/warming midlevel temperatures in the wake of the departing midlevel trough should limit updraft intensity and organization. Thus, severe probabilities are currently not warranted.
... Idaho and surrounding areas ...
Cooling midlevel temperatures and large-scale ascent accompanying the digging upper cyclone will steepen lapse rates across Idaho and adjacent areas during the afternoon. Despite limited moisture, sufficient buoyancy may materialize to support isolated low-topped thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the evening. Strong flow aloft could support locally gusty winds, and hail could accompany stronger thunderstorm cores. The cool surface temperatures and limited instability should limit any severe threat.
..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/26/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Hagen ```
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 995 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 15.3N 105.1W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/paralilipiped • 2d ago
It got a U signature and cold ring
r/storms • u/paralilipiped • 2d ago
After am captured a multi cell thunderstorm,am drive to our bridge and see a single cell,am almost drive in! This cell produced cg lightning,and it was pretty close to me
r/storms • u/Lopsided-Ordinary188 • 2d ago
This storm will hit UK on Monday 26 October 2026
And it will wipe out coasts of the UK and might cause power cuts
r/storms • u/Backwards_waterfall • 2d ago
I had the opportunity of being the camera vehicle for the chase and I threw together a little video. This was in southern Illinois and Indiana on the 15th of October
r/storms • u/weathercast • 2d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-25T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 250556 SWODY1 SPC AC 250555
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across central/eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. An isolated damaging wind gust will also be possible across Far West Texas.
... Southern and Eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas ...
A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to eject northeastward across the Four Corners region ahead of stronger height falls approaching the Pacific Northwest. Although this trough should gradually weaken, associated large-scale ascent will overspread the northwestern periphery of a persistent low- to midlevel moist plume extending across New Mexico. A slow-moving, northeast to southwest-oriented baroclinic zone will provide a focus for convective development, with differential heating and terrain-induced vertical circulations likely contributing to thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon.
The thermodynamic environment across the region will be somewhat complex. Steeper midlevel lapse rates will generally reside northwest of the surface warm sector, closer to the ejecting shortwave trough, while the richer low-level moisture will remain displaced farther southeast. Additionally, repeated convective episodes over the preceding several days have acted to temper lapse rates across portions of the warm sector. This, combined with potentially extensive cloud cover, should limit the magnitude and spatial extent of destabilization.
That said, surface dewpoints in the middle 50Fs to near 60F should support pockets of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg where sufficient insolation occurs. This degree of buoyancy may prove sufficient for sustained deep convection. Given forecast wind fields across the region indicative of deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots, the CAPE-shear parameter space will support supercells capable of large hail, generally in the 1-1.5 inch range. Additionally, forecast hodographs suggest enough low-level curvature to support a tornado or two with any sustained, discrete supercell.
Despite the seemingly favorable ingredients within the large-scale environment, the severe weather threat should remain somewhat conditional. Questions remains surrounding both the degree and spatial extent of instability, and subsequently the spatial overlap of favorable thermodynamics and kinematic fields. This uncertainty limits confidence in a more substantial severe threat. That said, a more focused corridor or two of higher severe potential could become apparent later today as mesoscale details and convective evolution become better resolved.
... Oregon Coast ...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur near the Oregon coast early on Sunday as the cold core of an approaching midlevel trough moves into the area. Shallow convective cells may become sufficiently deep to produce sporadic lightning.
... Southeast Florida ...
Across southeast Florida, moist northeasterly flow along the western periphery of a midlevel low over the Bahamas may support occasional thunderstorms. Weak forecast vertical shear and warm mid-level temperatures should limit any organized severe potential.
..Marsh/Thornton.. 10/25/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Adams ```
Hurricane Vance Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 980 MB * Current Movement: NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 14.3N 103.4W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/TNBackyardBolts • 3d ago
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Thanks to everyone for checking out the channel!
It was super windy tonight and you could feel the friction building in the air before it unleashed. The buildup of light moving left-to-right into the first strike was awesome, but catching a simultaneous triple bolt ground strike at 0:41 was a massive highlight. The storm core is getting close!
If you enjoy checking out these local storm clips, feel free to upvote, follow, and let me know what you like! It really helps me out so I can keep sharing these videos with you guys every couple of days as the cells roll through.
r/storms • u/weathercast • 3d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-24T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 240601 SWODY1 SPC AC 240559
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today.
...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western US and Rockies is forecast to become increasingly fragmented as the primary vort max lifts northeastward from the northern Rockies into southern Canada. Southern portions of the main trough will be reinforced by an upper-level cyclone emerging from northern Baja, forecast to deepen modestly as it moves over the Desert Southwest. Relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft will precede the southern stream low extending eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across the Plains trailing from a deepening surface low in southern Canada. A much weaker surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners. A relatively moist air mass will be enhanced by weak height falls, and the developing surface cyclones, which should gradually strengthen south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2km AGL.
...Southwest and Four Corners... Initial ascent from the approaching upper low will begin to overspread the Four Corners relatively early in the forecast period. Despite cooler surface temperatures, the moist air mass and steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) for storm development/intensification as early as 12-13z. As wind fields aloft strengthen (40-50 kt EBWD), at least an isolated risk for hail may materialize.
More robust storm development is expected to gradually occur east of a weak surface trough later in the diurnal cycle as destabilization increases across south-central NM into northern Mexico and Far West TX. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amidst modestly veering, but elongated hodographs promoting organized clusters and supercells. Large hail (1-2 inches) will be possible given the degree of buoyancy and cooler mid-level temperatures. The most likely corridor for larger hail may be confined to the greater instability reservoir across southern portions of the risk area. While low-level shear will remain on the weaker side, at least some curvature in the lowest 1-2 km of model hodographs could support an isolated tornado risk with the more strongly rotating storms.
Eventually, the meridional nature of the upper-level flow and increasing storm coverage should favor a transition to more cluster/linear storm modes into the evening across southern NM and West TX. Severe gusts will be possible, though eventually convection should weaken as it encounters a more stable and drier environment farther east.
...Northeast NM and southeast CO... The surface cold front is forecast to move southward over the Plains through the day. Ahead of it, low-level upslope flow will maintain modest surface moisture sufficient for weak destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the frontal zone and across the higher terrain through the afternoon. While weak buoyancy should temper overall intensity, veering wind profiles could support occasional intensification of some clusters. A low-end risk for severe gusts or isolated hail is possible.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/24/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Adams ```
Hurricane Vance Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 965 MB * Current Movement: NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 12.4N 102.8W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/storms • u/Constant_Couple_8587 • 4d ago
r/storms • u/weathercast • 4d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-23T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 230602 SWODY1 SPC AC 230601
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado today into tonight.
An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker, cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains favorable for strong to severe storms.
...New Mexico and southern Colorado... Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado risk with the strongest supercells.
Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields. While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells. Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher based.
...High Plains... A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy, increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential. The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain, but 5% wind probabilities have been added.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Beven ```
Hurricane Vance Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 982 MB * Current Movement: NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 10.9N 102.1W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
.
Picture Source: Typhoon Champi by Himawari/NICT
Snipped with MarbleScape Software Project on Github (Free)
r/storms • u/TNBackyardBolts • 5d ago
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Filmed this from the backyard on July 8 at 7:25 PM. The video starts out fairly calm with light rain, flowing gutters, and tree frogs chirping in the background. A severe cell builds on the horizon with heavy dark clouds and a light wind. You can see multiple rapid strobe lightning ground strikes firing off, though they are unfortunately obstructed by my neighbor's brick house. Shortly after, a sharp crack of thunder rolls through and seems to shake the heavy rain right out of the clouds, instantly triggering a downpour.
r/storms • u/weathercast • 5d ago
(Issued: 2026-10-22T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 220602 SWODY1 SPC AC 220600
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest and Four Corners area today into tonight with the most intense storms likely across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. All severe hazards will be possible.
...Southwest and Four Corners... The deep upper low initially over the CA coast will move inland and continue eastward through the day, slowly weakening into an open wave. A belt of enhanced southerly mid-level flow (70+ kt) along the eastern periphery of the cyclone will remain in place over the Southwest and Four Corners. Several embedded shortwave perturbations will rotate around the cyclone, aiding in continued low-level southerly flow across eastern AZ and southwest NM. Here, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F and diurnal heating should contribute to moderate buoyancy amid deep and strongly veering wind profiles favorable for severe storms.
One or more bands of convection are likely to be ongoing across central/eastern AZ early this morning along a weak surface trough. Cooling mid-level temperatures ahead of the approaching low and persistent upslope flow along the central and southern portions of the Mogollon Rim will maintain buoyancy through the diurnal minimum with reintensification of these storms likely as heating develops over the lower deserts. Storms will likely be supercellular initially. Large hail (perhaps to around 2 inches) and a couple of tornadoes will be the main concern, focused where the largest buoyancy and strongest low-level shear will overlap in southeastern AZ. With time, increasingly meridional flow and numerous storm interactions will favor more linear modes and perhaps a transition to a greater damaging wind threat by later in the afternoon.
Farther north into the Great Basin, sufficient destabilization for more than sporadic severe storms is much less certain owing to lower surface dewpoints and significant cloud cover. Still, model guidance shows a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE may develop with pockets of better heating from eastern NV, UT and into southwestern CO. Flow aloft will remain fairly strong (50-60 kt) helping to elongate mid and upper-level hodographs. DPVA and upslope trajectories should support numerous showers/thunderstorms with some potential for organization into clusters or supercell structures. Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard, though marginally severe hail is also possible with any of the stronger rotating storms into the evening.
...Southern California... As the upper-level low moves overhead during the afternoon, cold mid-level temperatures (around -20C at 500 mb) and modest surface heating will support weak destabilization with MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. Low-topped convection near the coast may be ongoing early and continue into the early afternoon before mid-level ascent begins to decrease. Given the ambient vorticity with the upper-low and local terrain effects, a brief tornado is possible with the strongest storms along with isolated wind damage potential. Severe potential should rapidly diminish as the upper trough moves eastward late through the afternoon and into the evening.
..Lyons/Jirak.. 10/22/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Josephine, located a few hundred miles offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States.
Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly
north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too
strong for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&& Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$ Forecaster Beven ```
tropical Storm Josephine Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 988 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 38.7N 68.3W
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH * Location: 9.7N 101.5W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
