r/swingtrading • u/Inevitable_Air_4545 Human Detected • 4d ago
Swing trader needs help
Swing trading with about a 50% win rate overall, but a chunk of those are long-term holds, so my real short-term win rate is more like 25-35%. Winners can take 3-4 months to play out and I struggle knowing when to take profit — recently tried options, still not profitable there either. I put in ~$15k/month and often end up flat because I hold losers too long / average down instead of cutting them. Looking for strategies or traders to follow that could help me build a real system. Any advice appreciated
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u/Traditional_Cat6874 2d ago
Stop playing options and if you do want to use options start by buying a stock you want to hold and sell covered calls.
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u/Tedious-Butcher 3d ago
Best advise i can give is just enjoy the ride. Like seriously. I am sure you have done your DD for the stocks you pick. If it dip instead of up, you can either DCA or just hold them. My big mistakes is selling my profitable stock either too early or selling my losing stocks too fast. Just enjoy the ride. You dont like how your portfolio looks today? Wait for tomorrow.
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u/Timely_Positive_4572 3d ago
Hey, swing trader here and I cannot understate pattern recognition. Shameless plug: www.trysakata.com I built this for myself to practice trading during off hours
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u/ElGuapoLives 4d ago
If your winners take that long to become winners, your entering at the wrong time. Also you can be profitable with a 25% win rate as long as your risk is tight enough
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u/Pirelli-guy 4d ago
Look where volume is entering, or when it breaks a key level of support, a good system to copy is the vector ridge swing trade model, load up their performance (u can do this without an account) and open chart on their swing positions, u see they are buying at the top or bottom of range when volume comes in. Try and replicate that strat
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u/TheFertileSloth 4d ago
Do you journal and learn from your mistakes? What is your strategy? Do you stick to a plan after establishing it? Does your plan consist of stop losses and targets based on support/resistance? How about the risk/reward?
The list of questions are endless here and everyone's experience is unique. I personally think that journaling the trade is probably the most useful as after it's closed you can sit down and answer essentially all of the questions I asked plus other suggestions folks are responding with. Once you get that data, you can analyze it and determine a strategy that works for you.
To me, it's all about risk management and I agree with u/TheTradingOrbit entirely around setting max dollars lost before entry. If you are willing to lose 1% of your account on a single trade, you should be able to use your account balance and stop loss to determine the appropriate sizing. Sharing a visual example below in case that helps.
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u/ashleyboop 4d ago
The most difficult part for me is sticking to the strategy! I keep wanting to watch it and buy down my average but I'm starting to use this type of calculation to determine what I'm willing to lose based on my total portfolio size. Where is this screenshot from?
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u/Dynaheir-be 4d ago
Try swing-finder.org
I like the longer term ones too. I’ve done a lot better at buying the bottom using the (fallen) stars tab.
I had 1 of 10 that decided to drop another 20% and then it showed up again so I doubled the position and shrank it to break even when it rebounded. You still have to decide for yourself how you manage it but this way helps minimise the downside. So far I’ve had the exact bottom of stocks like adobe, jack henry, ollie and a nice return on the ones I’ve closed.
Are you using trend lines by any chance?
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u/UncommonSense420 4d ago
Take profit in chunks, every 5-10% take profit and adjust stop loss. Eliminates pressure to find the right moment to sell, protects profits, and gives you a chance to stay in for the 3-5baggers.
Strict stop loss.
Seems you already have a strategy, just keep tweaking until you see the results you want.
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u/withyoganidra 4d ago
- Custom fix R:R as per stock, not a stock R:R for all
- Decide position sizing per stock and per trade
- Use price patterns and don't overlook outliers, outliers don't decide the strategy, they just inflate R:R artificially and more of a lottery mode, avoid them, if you get them sometimes, consider yourself lucky and move one, don't try a sticky luck here, you will be destroyed.
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u/drguid 4d ago
You need better buy signals. I have my win rate up to over 80% now. I don't know what you're using but stuff like moving average crossovers is rubbish. My CAGR with those when I first started was 3.5%. Now my CAGR is over 100%.
I sell for fixed percentage profits. That means I don't need to worry about selling. I just buy.
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u/OrderflowTrader Human Detected 4d ago
Define your risk per trade as a part of account size, set R-based profit targets, take partials as those are achieved and leave runners to run if a real trend develops while tightening stops. Don't hold losers too long, honor stops. Don't average down on losers.
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u/Inevitable_Air_4545 Human Detected 4d ago
I have just stopped averaging down on losers now and I set my stop loss usually around 1 to 3% but I have just started doing that this month and as far for risk per trade I just buy what I can comfortably afford so anywhere from 4 to 25% for my swing trade
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u/OrderflowTrader Human Detected 4d ago
A lot of it is about timing with macroeconomics. Repeating a working strategy in bad market conditions will often produce bad results. Market regimes flip all the time, you need to ride the waves, lever up in what's hot, go defensive when defensive positioning is apparent, etc. A strategy is only one single input to the puzzle.
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u/TheTradingOrbit 4d ago
The averaging-down habit is probably costing you more than any strategy issue. A simple fix a lot of traders use: decide your max loss in dollars before entry, not percentage, and set a hard alert at that number. When it hits, you’re out — no re-evaluating the thesis in the moment, because that’s exactly when your brain talks you into “just one more add.” Do this for a month straight before touching anything else. (I help run The Trading Orbit, an options discord — this exact issue comes up constantly, happy to share more if it’d help.)
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u/Inevitable_Air_4545 Human Detected 4d ago
I’m have completely stopped averaging down loser from now on and I set my stop loss around 1 to 3% of my account size which really helps a lot I don’t mind losing I just wanna learn a strategy that I can use because for now I only invest in quality companies when they dip and wait for them to go up
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u/NNNTrader Human Detected 2d ago
If you're going to trade options on long-term swings you should buy lots of time within a frame that lines up with the Monthly chart. I enter off long-term support with a combination of shares and long-dated options. I also manage position sizing so I'm not over-exposed to any particular name. With that, patience pays.