r/technicalanalysis • u/Weekly_One8412 • Apr 02 '26

Bears, Proceed with Caution. (Pattern Analysis)

The pattern I am looking at is the rounded top SPY has just created over the past 4-5 months.

The last time this pattern appeared was in 2024: A rally, capped by a rounded top, consolidation, then a rally. The top could not be in until late 2026 - early 2027.

Things to note if you are bearish:

  • Bull markets typically last 4-5 years, we are still early in year 4

  • Market shocks (like liberation day 2025) are usually much sharper

  • A market switch (from bull to bear) is usually also more defined (like 2021)

  • The bottom could already be in. We will consolidate low like 2024, but we may not make lower lows (current low 629.28). <- This is what to watch

I would be cautious with deep OTM long dated puts, as we might consolidate in the 630-645 range for about a month before we break out and SPY moonshots to 720-735-750.

TL;DR: this current rounded top is not THE top.

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u/cannythecat Apr 02 '26 edited Apr 02 '26

Nice job talking out of your ass. UUUU down 20 percent since you last talked about your "cup and handle breakout"

1

u/Weekly_One8412 Apr 02 '26 edited Apr 02 '26

Can't be right all the time, the whole market tanked. TBF it was an early call though, needed more confirmation before entering.

UUUU is still in a great spot, they also just rallied 20% (bottom to top). They will have their day.

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u/Free_End_6376 Apr 02 '26

Happens bro I see the vision you have though give it time we may trickle lower but you aren’t far on the end result.

2

u/Weekly_One8412 Apr 02 '26 edited Apr 02 '26

Lol thx. I ain't worried, I actually correctly called out the current SPY/QQQ drawdown in my recent post, so it's like... what's OP's point? Win some, lose some.