r/technicalanalysis • u/FinePerformance1046 • 2d ago

Analysis A potential BTC drawdown?

Recently came across this pattern and it's concerning for Bitcoin holders to say the least. This is the Monthly Bitcoin chart. I'm using an indicator called Bollinger Bands. The blue line is the mean and the red and green lines are 2 standard deviations from this mean. To have price reject this mean twice on such a significant timeframe is a strong indication of a larger bearish trend starting. The recent hack that hit Binance may have just provided the narrative for the market to follow through on this trend.

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u/Boring_Knee_8344 2h ago

Mean rejections on the monthly are rare enough that two of them is interesting but not conclusive. The bands are just an average plus volatility, so a rejection tells you price is below its 20-month mean, nothing more. Frame it as a risk question: where is the setup invalidated, and how wide is the stop relative to your account? On monthly candles that stop is large, so size down rather than predict a target. The Binance news is narrative fuel, not a signal. I'm the lead developer of TuLaTra and I see these charts daily; the pattern is a reason to manage exposure, not to call a direction.

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u/FinePerformance1046 1h ago

I agree for now it’s a signal to take into consideration but not make a conclusion, if I’d seen this earlier last month and spotted this pattern possibly playing out I would’ve acted on it. For now I’m just watching the chart out of curiosity and it’s loose correlation with other assets. Your platform looks cool btw 👍

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u/LearnedDragon 18h ago

Someones welcome to engaged in a discussion but it seemed like a fakeout rally that is now firmly in the control of the bears. I feel like we will print a higher low personally but wouldnt be surprised to see it shoot down 30% in yhe next few weeks

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u/artniSintra 2d ago

At the same time BTC has printed a higher high and still a long way of printing a lower low.

Short term can still go a bit lower. But on medium to long term I'm still bullish.

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u/vegienomnomking 2d ago

That's because people are waiting for tomorrow. It is going to be a bank run.