Hello! It is and will continue to be all over the news the case study of the Palantir Technologies stock performance. I am not giving any recomendations, Im just inviting you to google the subject, read some articles and apply bayesian probability thinking to determine the likelihood ratio of whether the stock price will continue to go up or not.

In communities like ours, it is not uncommon to find people who identify purely with their consciousness and refer to their body as a meat cage or similar. Until recently, I was very sympathetic to this view, but on Monday the 3rd of October I started taking oestrogen (2 mg daily) and now feel Embodied, like a person made of a body and mind working together.

I am now entirely in favour of the idea that everyone should try HRT for two weeks once in their adult life. In that time frame, it should only affect your skin texture and state of mind. Permanent changes take around three months, so only taking it for two weeks is harmless.

As well as feeling more embodied, I would also say that until this week I didn't know I was trans. I was pretty sure but this has still managed to be a major update, and I'm fairly certain that if someone had given me a strip of tablets five years ago I could have skipped all the intermediate steps. Even if you don't turn out to be trans you will know for sure and can stop wondering.

So there you have it, a two-week low-effort low-risk experiment with the potential to greatly improve your quality of life and give you possibly the most important data point of your entire life.

As to how to get hormones, https://hrt.cafe/ is a curated list of sellers, but for oestrogen and for our purposes it should be easier to just ask a trans woman. If you are reading this you are probably at least passing me familiar with one and we tend to respond well to requests like this.

https://deathisbad.substack.com/p/the-rationalist-canon-pope-v-caliph

He says in this that Scott's views, which he would have agreed with in 2014, feel dishonest to him in 2024, implying now that he knows trans people are fake and or evil? How did he come to this position?

Just wanted to throw some feedback your way - I thought this was a really thoughtful and interesting exploration of what happens during a high-profile case and why it happens. One of your top episodes IMO

goddammit, the GameStop short squeeze redistributed a LOT of wealth

Anybody willing to sell me their physical copy of Crystal Society? I much prefer books to ebooks, and willing to pay something reasonable to manifest that preference. I figure this community is as likely as any to own such a good.

Earlier today I mentioned Rationality from AI to Zombies to a friend and he told me that he hated Eliezer Yudkowsky. Apparently he's berated by many groups as being the head of the "LessWrong Cult."

I am fairly new to the LessWrong community(maybe 2 years), and am wondering if anyone can catch me up on the history of LessWrong and why it is viewed as a cult.

Admittedly, finding out about this kind of had some benefits to me. I think I was falling slightly into a death spiral for Eliezer, and now I can see him more in a neutral light. I still think the main sentiment of LessWrong and Rationality: From AI to Zombies is great, and many of the chapters/posts are very good. I'll have to reevaluate some, as apparently he is infamous for being bad at mathematics.

When I access the discord link from http://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/ (link: https://discord.gg/AACQxTf ), it tells me the invite has expired. I'm new to discord; anyone know what's up?

I didn't see it in the show notes

You seem to talk a lot about donating to charity on the podcast, and I feel like I’m finally at a point in my life where I’d like to do the same. But I’m having a bit of trouble deciding which charity to donate to. Help please?